2012年最离谱的11项预测

标普500指数持平于1,250点

    《巴伦周刊》（Barron's）每年都会请一些专家猜猜下一年结束时标普500指数（S&P 500）将达到什么水平。这是一个骗人的游戏，但有些时候他们碰巧也会预测得非常接近。2012年就是这样的一年。这些专家平均预测标普指数将达到1,360点，较2011年12月中旬上涨12%。瞧，标普指数本周已站稳1,450点，年度涨幅达到更高的16%。

    每位分析师看起来都很聪明，除了唯一的一位看空者。高盛（Goldman Sachs）美国首席股票策略师大卫•克斯汀曾预计2012年股市将持平，标普指数收于1,250点。今年不适合像克斯汀这样的看空者。不用害怕，他正在用看多的2013年预期进行弥补：他预测，标普指数达到1,575点。

S&P 500 at 1,250

    Barron's convenes a panel of stock experts every year to guess where the S&P 500 will wind up next year. It's a fool's game, but sometimes they happen upon a close number. 2012 was such a year. The experts on average predicted the S&P will reach 1,360, a tidy 12% gain from the date in mid-December 2011. Lo and behold, the S&P is holding steady this week at 1,450, which amounts to an even bigger 16% gain.

    Every expert looked smart except the lone bear. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said stocks would flatline in 2012 and the S&P would finish at 1,250. The year was not for bears like Kostin. Fear not, he's making up for it with a bullish prediction for 2013: S&P 500 at 1,575.