2012年最离谱的11项预测

美国住房市场将再度下跌

    新泽西州经济学家盖瑞•谢林这一悲观预测曾让记者们颇感兴趣。担忧总是能成为好的头条，这是当然，而且，他也擅长这么做。问题是，他最看空的美国住房市场2012年全年一直在上涨。

    谢林曾警告称，2012年将发生一波止赎潮，预计将有300万-500万套房屋继续留在影子库存中，给市场造成冲击，影响美国总体房价。但这些预言一件也没有发生。止赎屋入市有序，这很大程度上是因为很多止赎都是发生在佛罗里达等需要法官批准止赎的州。就在谢林高呼2012年狼来了的时候，房屋建筑商股价反弹，房价稳步上涨，美国新屋建设赶不上需求。谢林，是时候调整看空了。

Housing to slump, again

    Gary Shilling, an economist in New Jersey, delights journalists with his dour forecasts. Fear makes good headlines, of course, and he's good at making them. Problem is, he's been wrong on his biggest short -- U.S. housing -- all year.

    Shilling warned of a wave of foreclosures in 2012, predicting that some 3 million to 5 million homes would remain in a shadow inventory, flooding the market and hurting all U.S. home prices. But that just hasn't happened. Foreclosures are hitting markets at an orderly pace, in large part because so many foreclosures have occurred in states like Florida that require a judge to approve the process. As Shilling cried wolf in 2012, homebuilder stocks roared back, home prices steadily rose, and new homes couldn't be built fast enough in the U.S. Time for a new short, Gary.