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埃及危机蕴藏希望

埃及危机蕴藏希望

Mohamed El-Erian 2012-11-29
当前埃及的政治经济前景严峻,但还不到绝望的时候。实际上,如果处理得当,这次最新争端或许反而能帮助埃及及时而富有建设性地修正前进的道路,带来持久的正面效应。

    • 第三,民众赋权可能强化:从提高公民参与度到政治空想,绝不要低估最终感受到当家做主、可以改变国家命运的民众所爆发出来的潜力。

    • 第四,埃及经济潜力巨大:如果政局稳定,短期能获得金融援助,很多领域的生产力将得到释放。

    • 最后,埃及的朋友和盟友们都希望看到这个国家的转型取得成功,并愿意为此做出贡献:很多人都热切地期待埃及国内能持续地推动实现革命目标,取得真正的经济和社会进步,他们愿意为此尽一份力。

    埃及当前的政治和经济前景正面临挑战,原因可以理解;最新的国内政治争端加深了与革命核心相关的焦虑。

    但要说对这个国家不报任何希望,现在还为时尚早。实际上,如果处理得当,这次最新争端(以及它在国内引发的反应)或许能帮助埃及及时而富有建设性地修正前进的道路,带来持久的效应。

    穆罕默德•埃尔-埃利安是太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)的首席执行官兼联席首席投资官。

    译者:杨智

    • Third, the potential upside of popular empowerment: From greater civic engagement to visionary aspirations, never underestimate the upside associated with a population that finally feels it owns the country and can influence its destiny.

    • Fourth, the economy's considerable potential: With some sustained political stability and short-term financial assistance, many productive sectors can be unleashed in a meaningful manner.

    • Finally, Egypt's friends and allies are interested in its success and they're ready to contribute: many are keen to align themselves behind a sustained domestic effort to attain the revolution's objectives of real and inclusive economic and social progress.

    Egypt's immediate political and economic future is challenging, and for understandable reasons; and the latest internal political controversy adds to the anxiety associated with a tricky revolutionary pivot.

    Yet it is too early to give up on the country. Indeed, if properly handled, even this latest controversy – and the internal responses it has already triggered – could end up helping Egypt course correct in a constructive, timely and durable fashion.

    Mohamed El-Erian is the CEO and co-chief investment officer of PIMCO.

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