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大商机:美国成世界头号产油国之后

大商机:美国成世界头号产油国之后

Neil Suslak 2012-11-23
有机构预测美国将在2020年成为世界头号产油国,全球能源格局将出现重大变化。这种巨变将会带来大量的投资机会。

    这个领域的投资毫无减退之势。IHS Herold的数据显示,从2011年1月到2012年4月,上游石油和天然气公司参与了180亿美元的私募股权交易,高于2006-2010年的40亿美元。投资额的增长在一定程度上反映了科技进步,为进一步开发这些资源提供了可能。

    虽然在开采生产领域已经取得了难以数计的科技进步,但很多这类油气资源的开发成本依然高昂。它意味着,如果要维持产量增长,技术必须进一步发展。如果商品价格依然受到抑制,这一点就显得更加重要。今年西得克萨斯中质油(WTI)价格已下跌超过15%。

    如果没有新的技术来降低勘探开采成本,开采这些新资源的经济可行性就会下降。我们已经在页岩气领域看到了这样的情况:一部分是由于价格持续低迷,生产商已经日益从干气转向湿气。与此同时,低廉的天然气价格也推动了乙烷加工厂的兴建,以供应塑料和其他下游化工市场。

能效问题越来越受关注

    我们在发电和运输领域对化石燃料的持续依赖无疑将在能效和减排技术领域创造出巨大的商机。能效提升将变得更为重要。因为,如果我们继续消耗化石燃料,向可再生能源转换的进程可能就会放缓,特别是在能源发电领域。因为廉价的天然气进一步拉升了它相对于可再生能源发电的成本差异。

    虽然国际能源署强调美国已经减少了石油进口,但该机构的《2012年能源展望》报告同时指出,造成这种情况一部分原因可能是因为美国石油消费量的减少。相比2006年,美国的石油消费量已经下降了8%。石油消费量的下降相当一部分是因为新技术降低了交通运输行业的车辆耗油量。大多数车辆的耗油量都低于五年前,新技术提高了车辆的每加仑行驶里程,由此也降低了排放。

    因此,尽管清洁技术融资(取决于如何定义清洁技术)同比似乎略有下降,但能源技术投资依然强劲。很多具有颠覆性潜能的公司正在寻求风险投资,但相比之下,大部分的资金却来源于美国、欧洲、中东和亚洲其他地区的大型能源公司。如今随着行业格局加快变化,风投和大型能源公司兴趣更加浓厚,希望合作投资新兴公司,寻找解决方案。这种情况甚至对于跨国公司可能也是巨大的机遇。

    尼尔·苏斯拉克是Braemar Energy Ventures的联合创始人兼执行合伙人,他在以能源为主的风险投资领域拥有超过20年的经验。Braemar Energy Ventures重点投资能源科技领域尚处于吸引风投和扩张阶段的公司,以及与可再生能源和传统能源领域的杰出公司和管理团队合作。 更多信息,请登录www.braemarenergy.com。

    译者:早稻米

    Investment in the space is showing no sign of abatement. From January 2011 to April 2012, upstream oil and gas companies participated in $18 billion in private equity deals – that's up from $4 billion from 2006 through 2010, according to IHS Herold. Part of this increase in value reflects the growth of technology, allowing for further development of such resources.

    Although numerous technology advancements have already been made in exploration and production (E&P), many of these hydrocarbon resources remain costly to develop -- meaning that further advancements must be achieved in order to sustain production growth. This is particularly important if commodity prices remain suppressed, with WTI prices down over 15% this year.

    Without new technologies to reduce E&P costs, the production of these new resources will become less economically viable. We are already witnessing this phenomenon with shale gas as producers increasingly shift from dry gas to liquids plays in response, in part, to the continued low prices. At the same time, these lower prices have enabled a significant build-out in ethane-based processing plants for the plastics and other downstream chemicals markets.

Increased focus on energy efficiency

    Our continued reliance on fossil fuels for power and transportation will undoubtedly create opportunities in the fields of energy efficiency and emissions mitigation technology. Efficiency advancements will become even more important as we consume fossil fuels and perhaps observe a slower transition to renewables, particularly on the power side as cheaper natural gas raises the price differential versus most forms of renewable power.

    Although the IEA highlights the fact that the U.S. has decreased its petroleum imports, part of this drop can be attributed to a decline in U.S. consumption, which is down 8% since 2006, according to the IEA's Energy Outlook 2012. In particular, a significant portion of the drop in consumption has been enabled by new technologies reducing vehicle fuel consumption in the transportation sector. Most vehicles burn less fuel than they did five years ago as new technologies allow cars to achieve more mileage per gallon and, as a result, cut their emissions as well.

    So while cleantech funding (depending on how you define it) looks to be down slightly year-on-year, investment in energy technology remains robust. Although many potentially disruptive companies are sourcing venture capital, the lion's share of investment is being carried out by large energy companies from the U.S., Europe, the Middle East and other parts of Asia. Today, there is much greater interest among VCs and large energy companies to act collaboratively in investing together in emerging companies as the industry landscape shifts ever more quickly and to identify solutions to what are enormous opportunities even for a multi-national.

    Neil Suslak, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Braemar Energy Ventures, has more than 20 years of experience in the venture capital and investment banking industries, largely in the energy space. Braemar Energy Ventures focuses on investing primarily in venture- and expansion-stage companies in the energy technology sector and partners with exceptional companies and management teams, in both alternative and traditional energy markets. Additional information is available at www.braemarenergy.com.

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