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中国经济放缓被夸大

中国经济放缓被夸大

Nin-Hai Tseng 2012-10-25
中国的经济增长可能将出现转变,而非下滑。未来数年,中国欠发达地区的经济发展将提速,而大城市的发展将降温,中国经济整体而言仍然拥有巨大的发展潜力。但是,政府需要采取更多举措,才能真正释放这种潜力。

    得克萨斯农工大学(Texas A&M University)教授甘犁(音译)称,中国最富有的10%人口掌握着57%的家庭收入。他预计,未来十年中国所有地区的经济增长都将放缓。“由于富有的家庭早已达到了他们期望的消费水平,而贫困家庭仍旧受到收入有限的制约,在社会收入分配得到显著改善之前,国内消费难以出现高速增长。

    这些改变应当包括给予农民工城镇户口等措施。农民工为建设、清扫的城市贡献了自己的力量,但中国僵化的体制却拒绝让他们在城市中享受医疗和教育福利。

    没人否认中国经济继续增长的潜力。问题是,中国广大的中低收入家庭是否会成为经济增长的动力?

    China's richest 10% control 57 % of household income, says Li Gan, a professor at Texas A&M University. He expects the economy to slow down in all regions over the next decade. "Since rich households have already consumed at their desired levels while poor households are constrained by their income, no one should expect a fast-growing domestic consumption before drastic changes in income distribution occur."

    Those changes could include measures such as granting migrant workers urban residency. The country's rigid system denies them access to healthcare and education benefits in the cities many have helped build and clean.

    There's no dismissing China's potential for continued growth. The question is will the country's vast low and middle-income households drive it?

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