游戏厂商传统豪强上演三国杀

    游戏产业并不全是有趣的“游戏”。经历了多年的高速发展之后，各大游戏厂商目前都陷入了困境。捉襟见肘的消费者，老化的游戏机系统，从实体媒体向数字媒体的大规模转变，这些因素令微软（Microsoft）、任天堂（Nintendo）和索尼（Sony）等传统游戏厂商头疼不已。这三家公司都在准备推出他们的新一代游戏。问题在于，他们如何站稳脚跟？

    作为三巨头之一的微软肯定很自信。过去18个月里，它的游戏机在美国的销量每个月都超过任天堂和索尼。微软在7月份的一篇博客文章中写到，Xbox 360在6月份的美国游戏机销售市场上获得了47%的市场份额，连续16个月达到或超过40%。

    几年前，没人能料到微软能取得这样的成功。那时，Xbox 360还无法与价格更低、具有动作识别功能的任天堂Wii一较高下。但后来，微软凭借自己的动作识别周边外设Kinect赢得了游戏玩家的青睐。微软的另一重要举措是让游戏发行商确保Xbox 360成为新闻热点。微软还积极增加Xbox Live服务的娱乐内容，包括全天候的ESPN和HBO Go节目，使Xbox 360成为家庭媒体中心。此外，微软还采取减价措施，把这款游戏机的价格降到了199美元。这些举措帮助微软成为了游戏行业里的一支主导力量。

    与此同时，任天堂却辉煌不再。当前这代游戏机推出之前，Wii曾在竞争中遥遥领先。那时，任天堂的游戏机拥有动作感应游戏，而竞争对手却没有。Wii也比Xbox 360和PlayStation 3便宜得多。或许同样重要的是，任天堂游戏机的宣传铺天盖地，无人能比。于是，任天堂看着销量飞涨。

    然而，这种成功已经成为过去。在面市的头两年（2006年和2007年），Wii全球销量达到2,000万台，在2008年和2009年更是超过了这个数字。但此后，销量就开始下滑，2011年只售出1,160万台。任天堂成，上一个季报期内，Wii全球销量只有71万台，大大低于去年同期的160万台。换句话说，Wii正在一步步走向末路。

    Wii失宠之前，掌上游戏机业务也经历了同样令人不安的衰落过程。多年以来，索尼和任天堂将大量资金投入了掌上游戏机领域。任天堂因为其备受欢迎的Game Boy以及受欢迎程度甚至更高的DS而闻名于世。索尼的PlayStation Portable花了一段时间才取得进展，但也赢得了一批追随者。

    但如今，分别推出了3DS和PlayStation Vita的任天堂和索尼正面临着前所未有的不利局面。据任天堂表示，3DS在上个季度的全球销量达到了186万部。这个数字相当高，但还算不上重磅炸弹。索尼PlayStation Vita（该新款掌上游戏机配备了3G无线上网等先进技术和大尺寸触摸屏）的销售开局良好，但后继乏力。

    原因何在？要怪就怪谷歌（Google）的安卓（Android）系统和苹果（Apple）的iOS系统。

    智能手机和平板电脑越来越受欢迎，它们的性能更加强大。与此同时，艺电（Electronic Arts）等大型游戏发行商意识到，玩家日益倾向于使用这些设备来玩游戏。为什么不呢？如今的智能手机和平板电脑带来了高质量的视觉效果。而且，从电话和短信切换到视频游戏十分方便，非常有吸引力，令人难以抗拒。

    这可能就是移动游戏收入在过去几年里大幅增长的原因所在。据市场调研公司Flurry Analytics的资料显示，2009年美国移动游戏软件收入的70%都归任天堂所有。去年，这个比例已经下降到了36%。与此同时，iOS和安卓收入之和在美国移动游戏收入中的占比则从三年前的19%增加到了去年的58%。在上个月发给投资者的报告中，投资研究公司Cowen的分析师道格•克鲁兹对另外一家受到智能手机冲击的社交游戏公司星佳（Zynga）提出了一些质疑。但他的担忧同样适用于任天堂和索尼。他写道：“我们认为，消费者偏好正果断地转向手机游戏，因为手机游戏质量相仿、甚至更好。而且，手机游戏拥有随时随地都可以玩的额外优势。”

    几年前，游戏产业由家用游戏机、电脑和掌上游戏机推动。赢家之所以成为赢家，主要是因为更好的时机和更好的游戏。但如今，游戏本身似乎正退居次席。动作感应等热门技术与上网或观看流媒体影视节目同等重要。或许最为重要的一点是，以前的成功无法保证他们在未来也能取得成功。

    译者：千牛絮

    The games business isn't all fun and, well, games. After years of impressive growth, major game companies are struggling. Depressed consumers, aging console systems, and a massive shift from physical to digital media have created new headache for traditional firms like Microsoft, Nintendo and Sony. All three are gearing up their next generation of games. Question is, how will they stack up?

    Microsoft (MSFT), for one, must be feeling confident. It has sold more consoles in the U.S. than Nintendo (NTDOY) or Sony (SNE) every single month for the last 18 months. And in a blog post in July, the company reported that the Xbox 360 captured 47% of all U.S. hardware sales in June, making it the 16th consecutive month it was able to reach 40% or higher.

    Microsoft's success wasn't predicted years ago when the Xbox 360 couldn't match Nintendo's cheaper, motion-reading Wii. But Microsoft has been able to win over gamers by delivering its own motion peripheral, the Kinect. Another key move has been getting publishers to ensure the Xbox 360 gets the top titles. Microsoft has also aggressively added entertainment offerings to its Xbox Live service, including 24-hour ESPN programming and HBO Go, turning the device into a home media hub. That, coupled with price reductions that have brought the console down to $199, has helped Microsoft become a dominant force in the industry.

    The same can no longer be said for Nintendo. When the current generation of consoles kicked off, the Wii was far ahead. Nintendo's console had motion gaming and competitors didn't. The Wii was far cheaper than the Xbox 360 or PlayStation 3. And perhaps just as importantly, Nintendo had the kind of hype surrounding its console the others couldn't muster. Nintendo watched its sales soar.

    All of that success came early on, however. In its first two years of availability -- 2006 and 2007 -- the Wii hit 20 million unit sales worldwide. In both 2008 and 2009, Nintendo sold over 20 million units. Since then, sales have fallen off, culminating with 2011 unit sales of just 11.6 million. During its last-reported quarter, Nintendo said that it sold just 710,000 Wii units worldwide, down from the 1.6 million units it sold during the same period last year. In other words, the Wii is dying.

    The Wii's fall from grace follows the similarly disconcerting demise of the gaming handheld business. Both Sony (SNE) and Nintendo had for years made boatloads of cash with gaming handhelds. Nintendo is best known for its popular Game Boy, and its even-more-popular DS. Sony's PlayStation Portable took a while to get off the ground, but found a following.

    Now, though, Nintendo and Sony, armed with their 3DS and PlayStation Vita, respectively, are facing headwinds like never before. According to Nintendo, worldwide sales of its 3DS hit 1.86 million last quarter -- a respectable figure, but not blockbuster. And after a strong opening, Sony's PlayStation Vita -- a new portable loaded with technology goodies like 3G wireless and a big touch screen -- is having trouble keeping sales up.

    Why? Blame it on Google (GOOG) Android and Apple's (AAPL) iOS.

    Smartphones and tablets are becoming more popular and their components more powerful. Meanwhile, major game publishers, like Electronic Arts (ERTS), are realizing that gamers increasingly prefer to use those devices to play titles. And why not? Smartphones and tablets today deliver high-quality visuals at every turn. And the sheer convenience of being able to switch from a phone call or text message to a video game is too appealing to pass up.

    That's likely why mobile gaming revenue has transitioned so dramatically in the last several years. Back in 2009, according to research firm Flurry Analytics, Nintendo owned 70% of all U.S. portable game software revenue. Last year, that figure dropped to 36%. Meanwhile, iOS and Android's revenue has combined to grow from just 19% three years ago to 58% last year. In a note to investors last month, Cowen analyst Doug Creutz issued some doubts about Zynga (ZNGA), another gaming company impacted by smartphones. But his concerns could just as well be directed at Nintendo or Sony. "We believe that consumer preferences may be switching decisively to mobile games, given that game quality is similar, if not better, and mobile games have the added advantage of being playable at any time, anywhere," he wrote.

    Years ago, the gaming industry was driven by consoles, PCs, and handhelds. And the winners won mostly because of better timing and better games. Now, the games themselves appear to be taking a back seat. Whiz-bang technologies like motion-capture matter as much as access to the Internet or streaming movies and television shows. And, perhaps most importantly, past success doesn't ensure them same in the future.