社交媒体泡沫破裂之后

    互联网泡沫的破灭时间毋庸置疑：那是2000年3月10日，当天纳斯达克指数（Nasdaq）达到峰值——5,132.52点。但社交媒体泡沫破灭的确切时间呢？是2011年11月23日吗？当时团购网站Groupon的股价跌破20美元的发行价。要不就是在Groupon股价跌至逼近5美元的本周？还是今年5月18日？当天Facebook股票的首次公开发行（IPO）惨淡收场。还是最近这段时间呢？最近Facebook股价首次跌到20美元以下。或者是社交游戏公司Zynga的股价开始跌到3美元以下那天？与它的发行价相比，这意味着高达70%的跌幅。到底是哪个时间，一时间很难定论。但无法辩驳的是，这个泡沫确实已经破裂了。

    时过境迁何其速也。仅仅一年前，硅谷精英们还热衷于辩论大家是否身处泡沫中。众多硅谷精英人士都持否定立场，认为所谓的泡沫迫在眉睫论纯属无稽之谈，不值一哂。他们坚称，这些社交网络公司都是货真价实的实体企业，它们收入猛增，盈利状况良好。这些人士认为，这次可没有什么Pets.com或Webvan（两家都是2000年互联网泡沫时期兴也勃，亡也忽的代表性企业——译注）之流的泡沫公司了。也许他们言之有理。但是现在，仅仅是Groupon、Facebook和Zynga这三家企业就给投资者造成了上百亿美元的损失，可见情况的确截然不同。

    当然，即便是亏损累累，这些公司也没有任何一家到了要关门大吉的地步。社交媒体也还远远谈不上奄奄一息。真正生机不再的是全世界对“一切皆社交”（all things social）这股热潮的热衷劲儿。应该说，光是这种态度的转变本身就有着十分深远的影响。

    以马克•扎克伯格这位社交网络的圣人为例吧。多年来，他一直对我们谆谆教导：我们所做的每件事——打游戏，听音乐，读书看报，购物，甚至是工作——如果是和朋友一起做的话，效果会更好。而且，他还向我们提出忠告，各个产业最终都会围绕社交媒体进行重建——换言之，就是围绕Facebook重建。

    无数企业无比忠实地追随着扎克伯格所描绘的愿景，亦步亦趋。其中一些，比如Zynga和流媒体音乐服务供应商Spotify之所以如此完全是因为他们对扎克伯格的话坚信不疑；而另外一些这么做则是出于恐惧，他们担心如果不紧跟潮流，而有朝一日扎克伯格所说的话得到验证，他们将失去立足之地。甚至连谷歌（Google）这样的业界巨擘也觉得自己必须跳上这辆社交媒体的时尚花车。

    然而现在，众人对扎克伯格美好愿景的信念已经开始动摇。将来，他也许依然能够在硅谷或类似的数码胜地的“总统山”（Mount Rushmore，此处喻指某个领域拓荒者的纪念碑——译注）上占据一席之地。也许仍能打造出一家基业长青的公司——规模堪与谷歌和微软（Microsoft）媲美。但是也许，他又会功败垂成。今天，他是一位被迫快速成长的年轻首席执行官，统领着一家规模庞大、增速却显著放缓的企业。他已经成功打造了一种深受欢迎的服务形式，但却仍在寻找能与之相称的商业模式。换言之，Facebook必须找到自己的AdWords，正是这个搜索广告引擎每年为谷歌带来了上百亿美元的收入。

    Facebook目前的苦苦挣扎对其他社交媒体平台来说当然不是什么好消息，比如Pinterest、Quora或Path。它们也许也吸引了大批用户，但同样面临苦苦寻觅商业模式的挑战。江湖排名第二的社交媒体平台Twitter也是如此。尽管这家公司暗示，它的广告业务模式已经开始奏效，甚至在移动设备上也管用，但毫无疑问，公司管理层目睹扎克伯格眼下所经历的痛苦难免不为Twitter至今仍属私人公司而窃喜。正因为保持了这个属性，公司才能不受媒体打扰，同时避免投资者的压力，得以继续开展自己的试验。

    保持私有属性或许算是一大优势，但无论是私人公司还是公共公司，都难免会在一个至关重要的方面受到当前社交媒体圈动荡的影响：那就是员工士气。如果社交媒体不再是确保快速致富的康庄大道——如果无法再诞生另一个图片分享服务Instagram这样的公司——那么吸引、留住顶尖人才将变得难上加难。硅谷技术预测的资深人士保罗•萨夫称：“顶级人才总是这山望着那山高。公司里最好的员工总想着要另觅高枝。Facebook在这方面的情况已变得更严重了，而Zynga的情况则尤为紧迫。因为这两家公司的人才库都在加速流失。”

    人才流失的压力已显而易见。有报告称，硅谷各家创业公司正收到大批来自Zynga员工的求职简历。Groupon的销售团队据称也蠢蠢欲动。自IPO以来，Facebook已经损失了好几位高管。随着它们的顶级员工将目光投向大数据或移动支付这类最新技术潮流，那些资历更浅的公司也会很快面临同样的挑战——或者如蒙老天眷顾，他们痛下决心，浪子回头，重新回到谷歌或苹果（Apple）的安乐窝。

    尽管面临如此众多的巨大挑战，社交媒体平台还是其他企业触达用户和应用软件推广发行的有效渠道。在这一前沿领域，社交革命还只是刚刚起步。这方面案例太多，不胜枚举。想想Wetpaint，作为一个娱乐网站，它仅用了一年时间就成为访问量最大的网站之一。它的成功之道是什么？原来它深谙如何充分运用社交媒体，来自这一平台的访问量目前已经占到其总访问量的40%。Wetpaint位于西雅图，它的首席执行官本•伊鲁提兹称：“对我们来说，社交媒体一直就是最重要的用户来源。”他还表示，绝大多数媒体公司在试验和学习如何运用社交媒体平台上还处于学步阶段。他说：“一年前，所有人都认为，必须搭上社交这趟车，不管什么业务都不能掉队。而今天，大家都把焦点放到了社交媒体究竟能带来什么成果这个问题上。”

    There's no doubt as to when the dot-com bubble popped: it was on March 10, 2000, the day the Nasdaq peaked at 5,132.52. But when exactly did the social media bubble pop? Was it Nov. 23, when Groupon shares fell below their $20 IPO price or this week, when they neared $5? Was it May 18, the day of Facebook's IPO fiasco? Was it even more recently, when Facebook shares dipped below $20 for the first time or the day Zynga's began trading at less than $3 each, a whopping 70% below their offering price? Hard to say. But pop, it did.

    How quickly things have changed. It was just a year ago that Silicon Valley was gripped by anare-we-or-are-we-not in a bubble debate. Many of the Valley's brightest lights took the latter position, rejecting out of hand the notion that a bubble was at hand. These were all real companies, they insisted, with soaring revenue and healthy profits. There were no Pets.coms or Webvans this time around. Perhaps. But now, with Groupon (GRPN), Facebook (FB) and Zynga (ZNGA) alone accounting for tens of billions in losses to investors, it's a different story.

    Of course, even bloodied, none of these companies is going out of business. Social media is hardly dead. What's dead is the world's wild infatuation with all things social. That change alone could have profound implications.

    Take Mark Zuckerberg, the oracle of the social Web. For years, he has told us that just about everything we do -- playing games and listening to music, reading books and browsing the newspaper, shopping and even working -- is better done with friends. And he has told us that, as a result, industry after industry would rebuild itself around social -- in other words, around Facebook.

    Plenty of businesses dutifully fell in lock step behind Zuck's vision. Some, like Zynga or Spotify, because they believed he was right; others because they feared what would happen if they didn't and Zuck turned out to be right. Even mighty Google (GOOG) felt it had to jump onto the social bandwagon.

    Now, faith in Zuckerberg's vision has been shaken. He may still earn a spot in the Mount Rushmore of Silicon Valley some day (or its digital equivalent). He may still build a company for the ages -- one that is as large as Google or Microsoft (MSFT). But then again, he may not. Today, he is a young CEO who is being forced to grow up fast. He's heading a large business whose rate of growth is slowing dramatically. He's built a hugely popular service, but he is still searching for a business model to match. In other words, Facebook has yet to find its AdWords, the search advertising engine that mints billions for Google every year.

    Facebook's struggles are not good news for other social media platforms, be it Pinterest, Quora or Path. They may have traction with users, but they too will grapple with similar business model challenges. The same is true for Twitter, the No. 2 social media platform. While the company has given hints that its advertising model is working, even on mobile devices, there's no doubt that its executives are watching Zuck's travails and rejoicing that Twitter is still private, so that it can continue to experiment out of the spotlight and pressure from investors.

    Being private may be an advantage, but the turbulence in social media will impact private and public companies equally in one crucial realm: employee morale. If social media is no longer a sure-fire path to rapid riches -- if there's not going to be another Instagram -- attracting and retaining top people is going to get tougher. "The best talent is always looking over the fence," says Paul Saffo, the veteran Silicon Valley technology forecaster. "Your best employees are always thinking of leaving," he adds. "That's become more acute for Facebook and it is especially acute for Zynga, because they are burning their employees out."

    The strains are already apparent. Reports suggest that Valley startups are seeing a flood of resumes from Zynga employees. Groupon's legions of sales people are also reportedly restless. Facebook lost several senior executives since the IPO. The younger companies could soon face similar challenges, as their best employees turn their attention to the latest fad, be it big data or mobile payments -- or heavens forbid, they decide it's time to head back to the safety and comfort of Google or Apple (AAPL).

    Despite these enormous challenges, social media platforms remain effective ways for other businesses to reach audiences and for apps to gain distribution. On that front, the social revolution is just getting started. The examples are too many to name. But consider, Wetpaint, an entertainment Web site that in just a year became one of the most visited on the Web. How? Figuring out how to leverage social media, which has accounted for 40% of its traffic. "For us, social media has been the most important source of audience," says Ben Elowtiz, the CEO of Wetpaint, which is based in Seattle. Elowitz says most media companies are just starting to experiment and learn how to take advantage of social. "A year ago, everyone thought that had to be doing social, no matter what," he says. "Today, the focus is on what results social can drive."