超大屏手机时代还得再等等

    说起智能手机的屏幕，当然是越大越好。三星（Samsung）Galaxy Note等设备的屏幕越来越大，即将推出的iPhone也可能是大屏幕：尺寸更大的屏幕自然更适于观看视频、玩游戏、操作照片及其他应用程序。

    不幸的是，手机屏幕前景暗淡——与手机屏幕越来越大不同——据调研机构NPD DisplaySearch称，实际上，手机屏幕的（销量）可能会减少。这家调研公司称，由于今年一季度手机出货量低于预期，今年下半年（手机屏幕销量）可能会下滑。

    韩国LG显示（LG Display）等公司已经感觉到了压力。LG显示是全球第二大液晶显示屏制造商，仅次于行业领导者三星电子（Samsung Electronics）。LG显示第二季度净亏损9,800万美元，该公司将亏损归因为采用液晶显示屏技术的电视机和手机设备需求疲软。《手机出货与预测季报》（Quarterly Mobile Phone Shipment and Forecast Report）称，NPD DisplaySearch修正了对未来几个季度的预测。

    为什么会这样？多重因素导致了手机显示屏需求疲软，其中包括欧洲经济增长放缓，以及消费者的观望态度。“苹果（Apple）销量未达到分析师们的预期，”弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）首席分析师查尔斯•戈尔万称：“人们预期iPhone 5将有可能在下月发布，并在不久后发售。很多人可能都在推迟够买iPhone，以免一个月后，他们的朋友们都在炫耀最新最出色的iPhone，他们自己却只能拿着老款iPhone。

    因此，凭借即将推出的新款iPhone，苹果有可能打破移动显示屏市场的颓势。戈尔万补充说：“我预期将看到iPhone 5逆势而动，因为在新款iPhone于本季度推出之前，对iOS（设备）的需求已经锐减。”苹果的对手三星也逆势而上，在于六月结束的这一季度获得59亿的美元（收入），三星Galaxy S系列手机则成为这家韩国电子巨头的又一热销产品。分析人士预计，目前控制全球智能手机市场三分之一的三星或将在9月这一季度销售1,500万到2,000万部Galaxy S III手机。

    业内其它企业也能获得这样的成功吗？有可能。“我们预计今年比2011年略有增长，增长主要来自智能手机市场，”调研公司IHS iSuppli负责中小型显示器的高级经理维尼塔•贾汉威尔表示。“仍然有一些部门受到影响，这种情况在影响手机，而手机反过来又会影响手机显示屏市场。”这些因素包括前面提到的欧洲经济放缓，以及中国市场的疲软。

    不过，尽管经济放缓，移动显示屏仍将有所增长——一定程度上是因为对新型屏幕的需求。贾汉威尔补充说：“2012年，手机总出货量仍在增长，苹果iPhone的出货量仍在市场中占有很大比例。”iPhone可能采用所谓的in-cell技术，该技术能集成液晶显示面板内的触摸传感器。贾汉威尔表示，这可能使手机屏幕变得更大——在这个过程中不增加手机重量，同时变薄。最重要的是，它将刺激需求。

    其它前沿技术也有可能刺激需求，虽然这些技术的名字读起来很拗口。NPD DisplaySearch表示，在其它类型显示屏显露疲软迹象的同时，耗能更少的AMOLED显示屏增速显著。NPD此前预计其季度环比增幅为23%，但实际数字高达26%。与之形成鲜明对比的是传统LTPS TFT LCD技术，虽然此前预测仍有增长可能，但其实际却呈下滑趋势。

    手机技术似乎与其制造商的市场地位一致。索尼（Sony）和宏达电（HTC）这类公司发布了采用LTPS TFT LCD技术的数款旗舰机，而三星则一直在力推薄膜显示技术AMOLED。（三星的Galaxy S3手机配备了一款4.8寸的720HD AMOLED显示屏。）戈尔万称：“三星对AMOLED技术最为热衷。他们利用这项技术与其它手机形成了差异。AMOLED技术能带来极高的分辨率和效果极佳的黑色表现。”

    最终，我们极有可能看到新手机的屏幕和分辨率都有所提升。NPD DisplaySearch预计4.3寸，支持720HD的显示屏将变得更加普遍。业内人士正在密切关注苹果的一举一动。预计苹果将在9月12日的发布会上发布新款设备。

    译者：项航

    As far as the displays on mobile smartphones go, bigger is better. The increasingly large displays of devices like Samsung's Galaxy Note and, possibly, the upcoming iPhone are great: bigger screens are naturally better for watching videos, playing games, and manipulating photos and other apps.

    Too bad the outlook for cell phone displays is murky and -- unlike the screen size of gadgets -- could actually be shrinking according to NPD DisplaySearch, which predicts a decline for the second half of this year as first quarter mobile phone shipments were lower than forecasters' estimates.

    Among those already feeling the pinch is South Korean LG Display, the world's second-biggest maker of liquid crystal display panels after industry leader Samsung Electronics. LG Display, which reported second-quarter net loss of $98 million, noted the loss on the sluggish demand for TV sets and mobile devices that use the LCD display technology. According to the Quarterly Mobile Phone Shipment and Forecast Report, NPD DisplaySearch revised is forecast for the upcoming quarters.

    What gives? Several factors created weaker demand for mobile displays, including the economic slowdown in Europe as well as also a wait-and-see attitude from consumers. "Apple did not have the sales that analyst predicted," said Charles Golvin, principal analyst with Forrester Research (FORR). "There has been expectations for the iPhone 5, which will likely be announced next month and on sale shortly thereafter. A lot of people are likely holding off buying an iPhone so they aren't stuck with a device a month before their friends are showing off the latest and greatest."

    Thus with a new handset on the way, Apple (AAPL) could actually break out from the slowdown in the mobile display market. "I expect to see the iPhone 5 buck the trend, due to the drop-off in demand for iOS leading up this quarter's release of the new handset," Golvin added. Rival Samsung has also bucked the trend, and reported a $5.9 billion for the June-ending quarter, as its Galaxy S Handset proved another hit for the South Korean electronics giant. Analysts have estimated that Samsung, which now controls more than a third of the total global smartphone market, could sell between 15 million and 20 million of its Galaxy S III handsets in the September quarter.

    Can the rest of the industry expect this kind of success? Perhaps. "We are expecting slight growth over 2011, primarily from the smartphone market," said Vinita Jakhanwal, senior manager of small and medium displays, with IHS iSuppli. "There are still a couple of sectors that are getting impacted, but this is impacting devices, which in turn is impacting the mobile display market." These include the aforementioned slowdown in the Europe as well as a softening in the Chinese market.

    But despite the slowdown, mobile displays should still see some growth -- thanks, in part, to demand for new types of screens. "Total devices are still increasing in 2012," added Jakhanwal. "Apple's iPhone shipments remain a significant part of the market." The iPhone may use so-called in-cell technology that integrates the touch sensors within the LCD panel. This could result in a handset that will have a larger screen -- but without adding weigh in the process -- and will be thinner as well noted Jakhanwal. Crucially, that would boost demand.

    Other cutting-edge, if hard-to-pronounce developments could also help boost demand. NPD DisplaySearch noted that AMOLED displays, which consume less power, actually had higher growth while other technologies showed declines. NPD had estimated 23% quarter-over-quarter growth, but it actually surpassed this, reaching 26%. In contrast, old-school LTPS TFT LCD technology was forecast to be up but fell.

    The technology in the phones also seems to match the various makers' place in the market. Sony (SNE) and HTC were among the companies to release premium models that utilized the LTPS TFT LCD technology, while Samsung's support of AMOLED, the thin-film display technology, is driving rapid growth. (Samsung's Galaxy S3 featured a 4.8-inch 720HD AMOLED display.) "Samsung has been the most enthusiastic support of AMOLED," added Golvin. "They're used that as a way to differentiate their handsets. It is able to provide very high-resolution and very good black levels."

    Ultimately, screen size and resolution are likely to increase in new phones. NPD DisplaySearch predicted that 4.3-inch screen displays and handsets offering 720 HD resolution will become even more popular. That leaves industry observers waiting to see what Apple will do. It is expected to unveil its latest device at a September 12 event.