美国开发商盛宴何时散场？

    对美国的住宅建筑商来说，过去五年日子很不好过。房地产市场崩盘之后，他们的敌人包括：积压过多的库存、一再下跌的房价、满目疮痍的经济和急剧收缩的需求。

    不过，看起来现在他们已卷土重来，声势逼人。

    新房建设订单的猛增、抵押贷款利率的低下、房产库存的显著下降以及住宅价格的回升都助长了股东们的乐观情绪。瑞银分析师（UBS）戴维•戈德博格指出，2012年来住宅建筑商的股价已平均上涨了49%，人人都在期待大复苏的出现。有些建筑商的股价涨幅更大，比如标准太平洋公司（Standard Pacific）几乎翻了一番，霍夫纳尼安公司（Hovnanian）大涨了70%.

    可是，戈德博格担心复苏行情是否已经体现在股价之中。“此类股票中已经体现了很多预期，超过了形势发展的可能性和盈利、增长方面的潜力，”他说。尽管如此，他相信房地产行业已经触底，房价已开始上涨。

    2007年房地产市场开始崩盘以来，市场观察人士不是第一次预测行业反弹了。出于类似的反弹预期，建筑商2010年也曾有过一波上涨行情，但春日销售旺季业绩不佳，而且税务优惠项目到期后复苏未能实现，因此同年秋季投资者又开始抛售。

    不过，两方面的支撑表明最新这一轮反弹可能会持续下去：订单量连续数月增长及房价上涨。作为反映需求和住宅建筑商未来收入的关键指标，订单量去年第三季度开始增长，自此以来每个季度都有稳健上涨。据总部设在德州艾尔帕索的独立房地产调研公司住房研究中心有限公司（Housing Research Center LLC）的创始人兼高级研究分析师亚历克斯•拜伦称，2011年第三季度平均涨幅达12%，第四季度达14%，2012年第一季度则高达23%，第二季度甚至有望达到30%。

    有些住宅建筑商最近一个季度所获订单的增幅更加可观：莱纳（Lennar）订单量增长40%，Meritage多拿了49%的订单，霍夫纳尼安更实现了52%的涨幅。

    需求增长的同时，房地产市场的基本面似乎也在复苏。事实上，导致过去五年里房地产市场一蹶不振的未售出住宅问题很大程度上已经解决，库存回到了更为正常的水平。惠誉评级（Fitch Ratings）常务董事鲍勃•库兰指出，相比2007年的最高位，市场上新的未售出住宅数量减少了71%，已建成未售住宅的供给也萎缩了32%。

    那么，在经济仍然如此不景气的情况下，什么原因导致库存减少、房地产需求上涨呢？首先，住房抵押贷款的利率维持在或者接近历史性低位，吸引观望派跃入市场。其次，近几年公寓楼租金的上涨促使一些租房者重新考虑买房。第三，希望靠日益上涨的租金获利的机构投资者开始大举买入止赎法拍屋，以大额折扣买入这些住宅后返租给它们的原主人，而不是转卖出手谋求迅速获利。

    拜伦说：“他们正大批买进止赎屋，拉斯维加斯和凤凰城等地过去遍地都是止赎屋，可如今若你想在MLS房地产经纪系统上找一套，只能碰运气。就算真能找到，也会有20个人同时在竞价。”

    就连房价也开始回升了。房地产公司Zillow本周发布的一份报告显示，第二季度房价上涨了0.2%，这是2007年以来的首次季度增长。凤凰城、迈阿密、丹佛和圣何塞的同比涨幅最大，分别上涨了12.1%、6.4%、3.5%和3.4%.

    根据凯斯席勒（Case-Shiller）房价指数，主要市场的房价仍维持在2003年的水平。戈德博格说：“从2003年的水平出发，有希望实现相当强劲的反弹。”

    对美国规模最大的那些住宅建筑商来说，这些都是好消息。根据全美住房建筑商协会（the National Association of Home Builders，NAHB）的统计，6月份新屋开工数环比增长了6.9%，同比增长了24%，季调后年化数据为76万套，实现了2008年10月以来的最大幅度增长。高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析师约书亚•波拉德本周将他对住房建筑商的评级从“中性”上调至“富有吸引力”，并预测新屋开工数将于2013年攀升至100万套，2015年增长至140万套。

    瑞银分析师戈德博格称，瞄准欲改善性住房的买家、且负债较少的建筑商有望获得最高的利润增长和股价反弹。他还说，负债较高的建筑商，比如KB Home、Beazer和霍夫纳尼安的债务水平介于市值的77-186%，它们反弹速度可能会慢一些。

    当然，如果美国陷入二次衰退，或者利率大幅上涨，所有反弹都会成为镜花水月。不过库兰认为，哪怕真的出现这种情况，也应该让房地产市场自己走出困境，而不需要政府进一步干涉，或者推出新的刺激计划。

    “我们必须清理市场的烂摊子，尽管这可能颇为痛苦，但总好过一再拖延——很多止赎法拍方面的政策就是这样，可它们只是延缓了止赎，”他说。“这使市场长期陷于泥淖，比不干涉的情况更恶劣。”

    译者：小宇

    It's been a rough five years for the nation's homebuilders. Following the housing crash, they battled inventory gluts, tumbling home prices, a decimated economy, and a sharp pullback in demand.

    But it appears they're back. Big time.

    A surge in new home orders, low mortgage rates, a significant drop-off in housing inventory, and an uptick in home prices are fueling shareholder optimism. Shares of homebuilding stocks have surged 49% on average in 2012 in anticipation of the big rebound, according to UBS analyst David Goldberg. Some builder stocks have soared even higher, such as Standard Pacific (SPF), which has almost doubled in price, and Hovnanian, which is up 70%.

    But Goldberg wonders if the rebound is now priced into the stocks. "There's a lot priced into the group now that is in excess of how things are going to play out in earnings potential and growth," he says. Still, he believes the sector has bottomed and home prices are moving up.

    This isn't the first time market watchers have predicted an industry rebound since the housing crash began in 2007. Builders rallied in 2010 over similar rebound expectations, but sold off by the fall of that year when the spring selling season flopped and the recovery failed to materialize after a tax-credit program expired.

    But this latest rebound has two things going for it that may make it stick: Multiple months of order growth, and rising home prices. Orders -- a key metric that reflects demand and future revenue for homebuilders -- turned positive in the third quarter of 2011 and have been steadily rising every quarter since then. They rose 12% on average in the 2011 third quarter, 14% in the fourth quarter, 23% in the 2012 first quarter, and are on track to be up 30% in the second quarter, according to Alex Barron, founder and senior research analyst at Housing Research Center LLC, an independent housing research firm in El Paso.

    Some individual homebuilders have reported even higher orders in the latest quarter: Lennar (LEN) saw orders spike 40%, Meritage (MTH) 49% and Hovnanian (HOV) 52%.

    The uptick in demand comes as housing fundamentals appear to be recovering. Indeed, the glut of unsold homes that caused havoc in the market over the past five years has largely dissipated to more normal levels. The number of new unsold homes on the market is down 71% from its 2007 peak while the supply of existing unsold homes has shrunk 32%, says Fitch Ratings Managing Director Bob Curran.

    So, what's caused inventory to shrink and housing demand to increase when the economy has been so rocky? First, mortgage rates have remained at or near historic lows, making it attractive for fence-sitters to jump into the market. Second, the surge in rents at apartment buildings in recent years has caused renters to start moving back into the homeownership arena. Third, institutional investors, wanting to cash in on rising rental rates, have started gobbling up foreclosed homes at fire sale prices and then renting the homes back to the foreclosed owners rather than flipping them for a quick profit.

    "They're buying foreclosures in bulk," says Barron. "Places like Vegas and Phoenix that used to be flooded with foreclosures – if you try to find one on the MLS, good luck, and even if you find one, there will be 20 offers on it."

    Even pricing is starting to recover. A report by real estate firm Zillow this week showed prices rose 0.2% in the second quarter - the first quarterly increase since 2007. Phoenix, Miami, Denver and San Jose saw the biggest year-over-year gains, where prices rose 12.1%, 6.4%, 3.5% and 3.4% respectively.

    Home prices in major markets are currently at 2003 levels, according to Case-Shiller. "At 2003 levels, there is the potential for a really robust rebound," says Goldberg.

    All this bodes well for the country's largest homebuilders. Housing starts climbed to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 760,000 units in June – up 6.9% from May and up 24% from a year ago - its fastest pace of new construction since October 2008, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Goldman Sachs analyst Joshua Pollard, who raised his rating on homebuilders to 'Attractive' from 'Neutral' this week, is predicting housing starts will climb to 1 million in 2013 and 1.4 million in 2015.

    Homebuilders that cater to move-up buyers and have low debt stand to see the biggest earnings growth and stock rebound, says UBS's Goldberg. Builders with higher debt, such as KB Home (KBH), Beazer (BZH), and Hovnanian whose debt levels range from 77% to 186% of market cap, will likely see a slower rebound, he says.

    Of course, all rebound bets are off though if the country heads into a double-dip recession or interest rates surge. But even if this happens, Curran says it's time to allow the housing sector to sort itself out without further government intervention and incentive programs.

    "We need to go through the cleansing process, and as painful as that might be, it's better than delaying and delaying, which is what a lot of these foreclosure initiatives did – it just delayed foreclosures," he says. "This led to a market in distress longer than it should have been."