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超极本出师未捷身先死?

超极本出师未捷身先死?

Don Sears 2012-07-26
人们本以为“超极本”可以给严重衰退的PC市场打一针强心剂,但这种现象似乎并没有成为现实。最近的市场分析报告显示,全球PC市场需求严重不足。倒霉的是,超极本推出的时机也存在问题,真可谓生不逢时。

    “超极本”原本被人们寄予厚望,大家都认为它们可以给日益萧条的PC市场打一针强心剂。但到目前为止,它似乎远没达到人们的期望。

    话说回来,什么是超极本?超极本是指由除了苹果公司(Apple)之外的电脑厂商——如惠普(HP)、戴尔(Dell)、华硕(Asus)、三星(Samsung)、宏基(Acer)等厂家生产的搭载了Windows操作系统和英特尔(Intel)处理器的笔记本电脑。它们的重量一般还不到4磅,厚度在0.8英寸以下,有高性能的驱动器,屏幕尺寸与普通笔记本电脑差不多,但电池续航时间很长。(别把它们和上网本混为一谈。上网本也曾一度成为行业的宠儿,不过没过多久,消费者就发现许多上网本的性能太差。)从本质上讲,超极本就是电脑厂商造出来抗衡苹果的MacBook Air的机器。

    许多今年推出的超极本都将搭载英特尔最新的Ivy Bridge芯片架构,它的耗电量更低,但是计算能力和图形处理能力都有所提高。随着传统的开学季和圣诞购物季离我们越来越近,厂家的营销活动也会加大力度。从历史上看,大多数笔记本电脑都是在第四季度卖出去的。

    不过从目前来看,消费者似乎并不青睐超极本。最近两家市场分析公司的报告显示,全球PC市场严重魅力不足。IDC和高德纳公司(Gartner)的报告都指出,今年第二季度全球PC销量为8,750万台,比去年同期下降了0.1%。在美国,这个数字更是惨淡得多,整整缩水了10.6%。PC销量不景气已经不是新闻了——这一趋势已经持续了七个季度之久。虽然厂家一直想把超极本打造成一个单独的高端笔记本类别,但却始终没有取得什么进展。英特尔公司曾经预测到今年年末,超极本的销量将占到所有笔记本的40%。但现在看来,这个预测值得怀疑。

    除了需求不足之外,影响超极本销量的另一个问题是市场时机。超极本进入老百姓的生活还是2012年年初的事,而新一代的Windows 8操作系统要到今年的假日季才能上市。因此如果你现在买一台超极本,它安装的还是Windows 7系统。很多消费者不想在未来的几个月内使用一种已经过时的操作系统。高德纳公司的首席分析师北川美佳子在7月11日发布的一份声明中称:“各大厂商都有相当一部分的研发经费拨给了超极本,而且英特尔也向这个细分市场投入了大量资金。虽然超极本在2011年首次推向市场,但是直到搭载了Ivy Bridge芯片的超极本发布,大规模的市场推广才在2012年的第2季度开始。因此,这个市场仍然处于早期使用者阶段。”

    现在就说超极本已经失去活力还为时过早,不过由于出货量不尽人意,许多硬件厂商已经改变了策略。首先是价格。六月初,一些新款超极本的价格从1,200美元左右一下子猛跌了几百美元,有些款式的价格甚至只有先前某些款式的一半。许多PC制造商一夜之间回到了起点,又要拼命地与苹果进行竞争。

    苹果公司已经用MacBook Pro和MacBook Air给市场设立了标杆。MacBook Air更是超极本中的佼佼者,把轻薄和美观做到了极致。索尼(Sony)的Vaio系列也用同样的路子搞了好几年,但它的销量和市场影响力一直都无法和苹果媲美。事实上,根据高德纳公司的数据,苹果本季度的实际增长率达到了4.3%,而其他主要厂商都出现了负增长。如果把MacBook Air比成一辆豪车的话,它好比一辆保时捷(Porsche)或梅塞德斯-奔驰(Mercedes),不仅定价高,而且基本上没有打折的余地。如果你喜欢奔驰,就只能乖乖掏钱。现在许多超极本的定价也很靠近MacBook Air。问题是,如果你有了买奔驰的钱,为什么不直接买奔驰呢?

    PC厂商考虑的不仅仅是市场份额和季度利润,他们还想改变自己的商业模式。苹果主要关注利润,而PC和笔记本电脑制造商一向习惯以量取胜,靠低成本的笔记本和台式电脑打天下。现在这些厂商也开始克隆MacBook Air的特点,用上最高端的材料,以便在高端市场竞争逐利。由于厂商对超极本的预期非常之高,大家都被低需求打了个措手不及,迫使各厂商纷纷打折甩货,甚至背上亏损。

    IDC研究总监大卫•达乌德在一份声明中称:“由于市场饱和等经济因素,加上大众对Windows 8的预期,以及今年晚些时候的其他变化,导致美国市场今年第二季度出现了两位数的萎缩。在这种情况下,消费者纷纷推迟购机时间,厂商和零售商们也放缓了推广新机的动作,以出清存货。此外,由于消费性笔记本趋于饱和,商业部门置换周期漫长,加上宏观经济和政治活动影响了人们的信心和支出,情况进一步恶化。”

    另外微软(Microsoft)破天荒地自造硬件的行为也让硬件厂商和英特尔雪上加霜。微软最近发布了一款名叫Surface的平板电脑,它搭载了一个完整的Windows版本,拥有一块触摸屏和一个内置键盘,而且还可以与微软的移动操作系统同步。现在我们还无法得知Surface平板电脑会不会对消费者造成影响,但它肯定会影响到微软的硬件伙伴。他们肯定不愿意看到更多的不确定性因素。

    对于想买一台划算的高性能笔记本的消费者来说,这种趋势可能是件好事。但是对于那些急于在市场上寻找救命稻草的硬件厂商来说,他们肯定不高兴。

    译者:朴成奎

    So-called Ultrabooks were supposed to revive moribund PC sales. So far, they seem to have done anything but.

    What are Ultrabooks, anyway? They are Windows-based, Intel-powered laptops made by almost all the major non-Apple (AAPL) vendors like HP (HPQ), Dell (DELL), Asus, Samsung, and Acer. They typically weigh less than four pounds and are under .8 inches thick with high-performance drives, normal-sized screens and long battery life. (These are not netbooks, an industry sugar high that drove sales for a short time before consumers realized many models were underpowered.) In essence, Ultrabooks were intended as an answer to Apple's MacBook Air.

    Many of the Ultrabooks coming out this year will feature Intel's new Ivy Bridge chip architecture that consumes less power while increasing computing and graphics processing. Expect the marketing blitz to pick up steam as we get closer to traditional Back-to-School campaigns followed by Christmas shopping fever. Historically, most laptop purchases are made in the fourth quarter.

    For now, consumers don't seem to have fallen in love. Recent reports from two analyst firms show the global PC market in dire need of oomph. Both IDC and Gartner reported sluggish shipments worldwide for the second quarter down 0.1% from the second quarter of last year at 87.5 million units. In the U.S., the numbers were a whole lot worse, shrinking 10.6%. While poor PC sales are nothing new -- the trend extends back seven straight quarters now -- the push to establish Ultrabooks as a standalone, high-end laptop category appears stalled. Intel (INTC) had said it expected this category to make up 40% of all laptop sales by year's end. That now seems doubtful.

    Compounding the lack of demand is market timing. Ultrabooks have only really come to life in early 2012, yet the next version of Windows is due this holiday shopping season. So if you buy an Ultrabook right now, it will have Windows 7. A lot of consumers don't want to be stuck with an outdated operating system in a few months. "A big portion of R&D spending has been allocated to Ultrabook development, together with Intel's massive investments to establish the market segment," said Mikako Kitagawa, principal analyst at Gartner in a July 11 statement. "Though Ultrabook was at first introduced in the market in 2011, the major promotion kicked off toward the end of 2Q12 with the IvyBridge, based Ultrabook release. This segment is still in an early adopter's stage."

    It is likely too early to say Ultrabooks are dead in the water, but lackluster shipments already have hardware manufacturers adapting their tactics. First up is the price. In early June, new versions of Ultrabooks were announced that shaved off hundreds of dollars off their initial prices around $1,200, with some versions at nearly half the price of early models. That leaves PC makers largely where they were to begin with, struggling to compete with Apple.

    Apple has been setting the pace in the market with its MacBook Pro and MacBook Air models, the latter being the crème-de-la-crème of super light and thin, beautifully designed notebooks. Sony (SNE) has been doing this for years as well with its Vaio line, but not with the same sales impact or marketing behind it as Apple. In fact, Apple boasted real growth of 4.3% this quarter, according to Gartner, while major vendors slumped.

    If the MacBook Air were a luxury automobile, it would be a Porsche or a Mercedes, and its sticker price would be high with little to no room for discounting. If you like Mercedes, here's what it will cost you. Covet it and pay up, so the thinking goes. Right now, many Ultrabooks are priced closely to an Air. The question, in other words, is why not simply buy the Mercedes?

    More than market share or quarterly profits are at stake. PC manufacturers are partly trying to change the way they do business. Apple focuses on profit, while PC and laptop makers have traditionally found success in volume sales and lower-cost laptops and desktop replacements. By cloning the features of the Air with top-line materials, Ultrabooks were intended to compete at the top end. With expectations incredibly high for the category, the lack of demand is already forcing discounts and losses for the hardware vendors.

    "The U.S. market suffered a double-digit contraction in the second quarter as market saturation and economic factors combine with anticipation of Windows 8 and other changes later in the year. In this context, consumers are delaying purchases, and vendors and retailers are slowing down their PC activities to clear existing inventories," said David Daoud, research director at IDC, in a statement. "The situation is exacerbated by consumer notebook saturation, a slowing replacement cycle in the commercial sector, and the big macro-economic and political events affecting confidence and spending."

    Microsoft (MSFT) isn't making it easy for hardware vendors or Intel. MS recently announced it is creating its own hybrid-tablet device, Surface, that runs a full version of Windows, with a touch screen and built-in keyboard, and synchronizes with its mobile operating system. It's way too early to know if Surface will impact consumers, but it will certainly impact its hardware partners. More uncertainty is not likely to be welcomed by Microsoft's hardware partners.

    The trend may end up being a good for consumers hoping to snap up a deal but it's not going to cheer hardware manufacturers looking for signs of life in the market.

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