俄美贸易正常化的最大赢家

    上周，美国的参议员们在国会山上围绕取消冷战时期针对俄罗斯贸易的限制性法案有何利弊展开了辩论。很多美国公司期待，取消这项限制性法案这一幕能够成为现实。

    普遍预计这些贸易壁垒将于今年清除，一旦如愿，它给美国对外贸易带来的将完全是正面效应。从守旧的农业合作社到固步自封的汽车产业，俄罗斯过时低效的经济很难能与规模更大、效率更高的美国工业和零售企业竞争。另外，华尔街也能说服美国投资者重新审视俄罗斯，同时鼓动俄罗斯公司到纽约募资或上市，从中牟利。

    当然，这些要变成现实，俄美两国首先必须跨越两国之家已存在了近一个世纪的种种障碍和偏见。

    俄罗斯加入世贸组织（World Trade Organization）花了18年时间。俄罗斯最早于1993年提出申请，当时这个国家刚刚摆脱共产主义，转向资本主义，但直到去年年底才终于获邀加入这个组织。从集中的计划经济向自由市场的转型并不轻松。腐败和暗箱操作已成为常态，俄罗斯的亿万富翁们必须采取一切必要的手段，暴力捍卫自己的利益。从1998年的债务违约到2008年入侵格鲁吉亚，总有充分的理由迫使美国投资者遏制进入俄罗斯市场的念头。

    所有的乱象的背后，倒霉的是俄罗斯人民。这些年俄罗斯经济没有出现应有的增长或现代化，如今仍高度依赖能源和矿产品出口（俄罗斯是全球最大的石油出口国）。俄罗斯对进口商品征收高额关税，以保护一些效率低下的大型产业，特别是汽车产业。在俄罗斯经商也步履维艰，这个国家的政治和司法系统臭名昭著，出了名的腐败。近些年，情况恶劣不堪，导致俄罗斯的外国直接投资已经变为事实上的负值，这在新兴市场中闻所未闻。

    尽管俄罗斯已经在去年12月获准加入了世贸组织后，但美国仍然保留着冷战时期针对俄罗斯贸易的限制性法案。上周四，美国参议院讨论拟取消这项法案，在今夏俄罗斯正式入世前恢复俄美两国贸易关系的正常化。反对取消所谓的杰克逊•瓦尼克修正案的主要理由是俄罗斯糟糕的人权纪录以及对其民主承诺的疑虑。共和党人试图发出声音，表达忧虑之情，但却遭到民主党人的打压。美国总统奥巴马已将废弃该修正案作为其贸易政策的一个核心支柱。因此，虽然共和党人在参议院有不同意见，但这项对俄修正案几乎肯定会被取消，俄美两国的贸易关系将迎来正常化。

    俄罗斯开放，最大的受益者可能是美国和欧洲商界。一部分商品的关税下降，特别是服务业，预计将惠及那些希望能在俄罗斯新兴的中产阶级市场中大展拳脚的美国公司。美国商会（U.S. Chamber of Commerce）等主要利益团体以及173家美国公司已向美国参议院致信，要求恢复与俄罗斯的贸易正常化。

    On Capitol Hill last week, senators debated the merits of lifting Cold War-era trade sanctions against Mother Russia. Plenty of U.S. companies are eager to see this happen.

    The trade barriers are widely expected to fall this year, and when they do it will be a net positive for U.S. trade. Russia's creaky and inefficient economy -- from its sad agriculture collectives to its rusty automotive industry -- won't likely be able to compete against the larger and more efficient U.S. industrial and retail firms. Meanwhile, Wall Street could benefit from coaxing U.S. investors to take a second look at Russia, while at the same time convincing Russian firms to consider New York as the place to raise capital or go public.

    Before any of this can happen, however, the two countries will have to work through the numerous barriers and prejudices that have existed between them for nearly a century.

    Russia's ascension into the World Trade Organization took 18 years. It first applied in 1993 after the nation shrugged off its communist past and moved to capitalism and it was invited to join the WTO late last year. The transition from a centrally-planned economy to the free market has not been easy. Corruption and backroom dealings have become the norm as the nation's billionaire oligarchs violently protect their turf by any means necessary. From a debt default in 1998 to the invasion of Georgia in 2008, there was always a solid reason for U.S. investors to hold back from the Russian market.

    The losers in all of this mess have been the Russian people. Russia's economy has not progressed or modernized as it should have and is still highly dependent on energy and mineral exports to keep the nation afloat (Russia is the world's largest oil exporter). High tariffs are imposed to protect certain large and inefficient industries, especially the automotive industry. Doing business in Russia is also difficult given the nation's notoriously corrupt political and judicial structure. Things got so bad that in the last few years, Russia's foreign direct investment was actually negative – unheard of for an emerging market economy.

    While Russia was accepted into the club in December, the United States still has in place Cold War-era trade sanctions against Russia. The U.S. Senate met last Thursday to discuss dropping these laws so that they could normalize trade relations before Russia formally joins the WTO this summer. The main argument against lifting the so-called Jackson-Vanik amendment derives from Russia's abominable human rights record and its questionable commitment to democracy. Republicans tried to voice their concerns but it was the Democrats that shut them down. President Obama has made the lifting of the amendment a key pillar of his trade policy. So while the Republicans are raising some noise in the Senate, the amendment will almost surely be lifted on Russia, leading to a normalization of trade relations between the two countries.

    U.S. and European companies will likely benefit the most from an open Russia. The reduction in tariffs on certain goods, especially in the service industry, is expected to benefit U.S. companies hoping to tap the burgeoning Russian middle class. Major interest groups, like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, along with 173 US companies, have sent letters to Congress demanding the normalization of trade with Russia.