在华美国车商好日子到头

    如果你已经不记得1986年库尔特•拉塞尔主演的冒险喜剧烂片《小中华里的大麻烦》（Big Trouble in Little China，又译《妖魔大闹唐人街》——译注），没有人会责怪你。不过现在美国三大汽车厂商可能正在上演着它即将出炉的续集：《大中华里的大麻烦》。主演正是三巨头的老板：通用汽车的丹•阿克森、福特的艾伦•穆拉利和克莱斯勒的塞尔吉奥•马基奥尼。

    人们一直认为中国很快就会成为全球最大的汽车消费市场。但从最近的局势发展来看，这块大蛋糕很可能会显著缩水，甚至就此化作泡影。徜若真是这样，通用（General Motors）、福特（Ford）和克莱斯勒（Chrysler）必将遭受沉重的打击。现在人们不仅在讨论过热的中国经济是否会不可避免地走向冷却，就连中国政经体系核心的那些复杂的社会和政治问题，也成了人们关注的焦点。以下就是中国近期出现的几个危险信号：

一月份中国汽车销量显著下降

    据LMC Automotive公司（前身为J.D. Power and Associates公司）报道，2012年1月，中国乘用车市场销量下降了23%。“虽然之前已经预料到市场会疲软，但这个消息还是令很多人深感震惊，因为人们都认为中国市场的强劲增长是理所当然的事。”这个消息同样也令底特律的很多人震惊不已。比如通用汽车在中国的销量大大超出其在美国的销量。虽然今年一月别克（Buick）品牌在华销量上涨了2%，但雪佛兰（Chevrolet）这个通用近来正在全球各地大力推广的品牌，销量却下跌了16%。福特遭受的打击更为沉重，它的销量猛跌了42%。

    虽然今年剩余月份的业绩未必都会如此惨淡，但这种趋势还是让人乐观不起来。根据从13家汽车厂商汇总的销售目标来看，2012年中国汽车市场有望增长13.5%,远远低于一年前各厂商为2011年制定的20.4%的增长目标。LMC给2012年中国乘用车市场制定的目标甚至更低，只有9.2%。该公司表示：“我们相信，市场在未来几年里会回归到一个更加有机的增长途径。”潜台词就是：狂飙突进的增长时期已经结束了。

外资优惠政策时代的终结

    中国政府正在取消对新开工建设项目的补贴，同时也提高了外国厂商在华扩张的审批门槛，以限制外国厂商的扩张。中国政府曾经给予通用和福特不少激励政策，比如生产设备可以获得进口关税减免，外国厂商也可以通过建设新工厂来换取较低的税率等。但这些优惠政策已经在1月31日到期了。随着增长放缓，中国现在正着手保护苦苦挣扎的本土汽车厂商——据说有70家之多，而且据报道，有些中国国内厂商2011年连一台汽车也没有生产。

    已经在中国扎根的厂商在短期内应该不会受到影响。

    福特进入中国较晚，但一直在全力追赶。福特正在亚太地区增加230万辆汽车的产能，其中包括两个新装配工厂、一个新发动机工厂，并对另一个发动机工厂进行扩建，此外还有一个新的传动系统工厂它们全部都在中国。目前通用汽车在中国也有全套的生产系统。政策调整后，最大的受害者当属克莱斯勒。全球知名汽车厂商中，克莱斯勒是少数几个没有在中国开设工厂的厂商之一，而现在克莱斯勒几乎连补救的机会都没有了。

    分析人士早就料到中国会采取一些举措来加强对外国汽车厂商的控制，但是对中国政府具体会怎样做却莫衷一是。有些分析人士发现，中国正在加快将西方技术转变为自有技术。的确，通用汽车正是因为担心技术转移的问题，才没有将破产的萨博（Saab）卖给一家中国厂商。其他观察人士认为，中国可能会将某些设施或合资企业收归国有。但无论如何，中国发出的信号是明确的：我们仍然需要你们，但不像过去那样需要你们了。

    No one can be blamed for forgetting Big Trouble in Little China, the 1986 adventure-comedy flop starring Kurt Russell. But U.S. automakers may be starring in its soon-to-be panned sequel: Big Trouble in Big China, with Dan Akerson, Alan Mulally, and Sergio Marchionne in leading roles.

    Recent developments suggest the bonanza promised by China becoming the world's largest auto market is in danger of shrinking dramatically -- or ending altogether. This could be a big blow to General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500), and Chrysler. At issue is the inevitable cooling of China's overheated economy -- but also complicated social and political problems that lie at the heart of the Chinese system. Here are just a few of the red flags:

January auto sales in China fell sharply

    LMC Automotive, the successor to J.D. Power and Associates, reports that passenger vehicle sales in China fell 23% for the first month of the year: "Although a weak market had been anticipated ... it has still come as a shock to many when solid growth has become a matter of course." That shock may include many in Detroit. GM, for instance, sells more cars in China than it does in the U.S. Sales of Buicks in China rose 2% in January, but volume for Chevrolet, a brand GM has been promoting heavily around the world, fell 16%. Ford took an even heavier beating: Its sales tumbled 42%.

    Results aren't expected to be this disturbing for the rest of the year, but the trend isn't encouraging. According to sales targets compiled from 13 manufacturers, the market is expected to grow 13.5% in 2012. That is well short of the 20.4% growth rate that was predicted by manufacturers a year ago for 2011. LMC has set an even lower target for 2012 passenger vehicles: 9.2%. "We believe the market will return to a more organic growth path in the coming years," it says. Translation: The boom years are over.

End of the government gravy train

    China is sharply curbing the expansion of foreign manufacturers by removing subsidies for new construction and making it more difficult for them to receive permits to expand. GM and Ford used to receive government incentives such as breaks on import duties for plant equipment and lower taxes in exchange for building new factories. But those deals expired on Jan. 31. With growth slowing, China is trying to protect its struggling domestic automakers, said to number about 70 -- some of whom reportedly made no cars at all in 2011.

    Automakers that already have a presence in China shouldn't be affected in the near future.

    Ford was late to the game, but it has been racing to catch up. The automaker is adding capacity for 2.3 million vehicles in the Asia Pacific region, including two new assembly plants, one new engine plant and the expansion of another one, and a new transmission plant -- all in China. Likewise, GM has a full plate in China -- for now. The biggest victim of this policy change is Chrysler. As one of a handful of global manufacturers who make nothing in China, the automaker now has even less of a chance of doing so.

    Analysts have long expected China to take steps to gain more control over foreign automakers but have differed on exactly how. Some saw the nation accelerating the transfer of Western technology to itself. Indeed, fears of technology transfer were the reason why GM blocked the sale of bankrupt Saab to a Chinese manufacturer. Other observers have expected China to simply nationalize some facilities or ventures. But in any event, the message it is sending is clear: We still want you here, but we don't need you as much as we used to.