美伊之争不会引爆伊朗石油危机

    近来围绕美国航空母舰能否出现在伊朗石油出口要道——霍尔木兹海峡这一问题，美伊两国军事领导人剑拔弩张的态势持续升温。两国敌对情绪升级引发的担忧推动本周二油价和金价大涨，但就目前而言这些担心有些过头了。美国加强了对伊朗的制裁，剑指伊朗央行，勒紧了套在伊朗政府脖子上的绳索，但尚未阻断其呼吸。而伊朗方面，只要资金能持续流入，伊朗领导人也肯定不会触碰底线。

    航母之争只是美伊复杂棋局的最新动态。美国旨在削弱伊朗，但每一步棋最终都被狡猾的伊朗政府成功化解。两国政府和军方官员的针尖对麦芒不仅让事态复杂化，也吓坏了全球石油市场，但最终伊朗的石油总是能以某种方式运出国境，流入全球市场。

    伊朗长期以来一直在研制核武器，美国及其盟友近期加大对伊朗的制裁力度与此不无关系。过去两个月，英国和美国都已下令禁止任何与伊朗央行有业务往来的公司在英国或美国境内开展任何业务。欧盟预计将于本月批准类似的措施，而且周三有报道称，欧盟已同意对伊朗石油实施禁运。

    虽然这些举措让伊朗的石油出口前景变得复杂，但完全切断其出口的可能性很小。全世界的银行机构太多了，它们子公司的子公司肯定能为伊朗的石油贸易提供便利。瑞士、印度和中国的银行将非常乐意帮助伊朗央行完成现金收账。伊朗央行也可以同国际性银行进行以物易物的交易。两伊战争期间美国对伊朗银行体系实施类似制裁时，伊朗就采取过类似的做法。

    至于欧洲的伊朗石油禁运措施，只要未参与禁运的进口国石油需求超过伊朗每天400万桶的产能，伊朗石油就不愁销路。伊朗石油的互换性较好，且轻油、重油都有，因此大多数炼油厂只需略作调整就可以将伊朗石油加工成汽油、取暖油等精炼油。伊朗历来出口至欧盟（主要是西班牙和意大利）的石油数量较为有限，禁运实施后这部分石油可能最终会转而流向中国或其他未参与禁运的亚洲国家。虽然这一改变短期内会扰动全球石油市场，但随着这些石油重新获得分配，问题最终将得以解决。

伊朗里亚尔暴跌

    伊朗军方的好战言论在国内造成了一个意想不到的后果。伊朗官方货币里亚尔兑美元汇率上个月狂跌近40%，至1美元兑1.8万里亚尔左右。伊朗央行受到制裁以及伊朗和美国可能爆发战争，促使伊朗人争相买进美元，以免遭受里亚尔贬值冲击。上个周末，里亚尔跌了10%，银行和美元兑换店门口都排起了长队。

    Tensions are rising between the U.S. and Iran's military leaders over the presence of Navy ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for the country's oil exports. Fears of imminent hostilities caused oil and gold to spike on Tuesday, but right now those fears look overblown. Beefed up sanctions by the U.S. targeting Iran's central bank have tightened the noose around the government's neck, but have hardly choked off the government's air supply. As long as money keeps flowing into Iran, the country's leaders will make sure to not cross the line.

    This is the latest move in a complicated chess game between the U.S. and Iran. Each move made by the U.S. to undercut Iran is eventually countered somewhat successfully by the wily Iranian government. Hostile puffery by state apparatchiks and military officials from both sides tends to complicate matters and spook world oil markets, but at the end of the day, Iranian oil always somehow manages to flow out of the country and into the world market.

    The latest drama revolves around beefed up sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies over Iran's long-running pursuit of nuclear weapons. In the last two months, both the United Kingdom and the U.S. pushed though mandates barring any company that deals with Iran's central bank from conducting any business in their respective nations. The European Union is expected to pass a similar measure this month and today has reportedly agreed to ban all Iranian oil imports.

    But while this would complicate Iran's ability to sell oil, it will hardly kill it. There are enough banking institutions around the world with subsidiaries of subsidiaries that will facilitate the Iranian oil trade. Banks in Switzerland, India and China would be more than happy to help the Iranian central bank collect its cash. Iran's central bank could also engage in barter transactions with international banks, similar to what it did during the Iran-Iraq war when the U.S. imposed similar sanctions on Iran's banking system.

    As for the potential European embargo, as long as oil demand from importing nations outside the embargo exceeds Iran's 4 million barrel a day production capacity, there will always be a home for Iranian oil. Iran's oil is relatively fungible, with both light and heavy grades, so it could run through most refineries with limited adjustments necessary to be processed into refined products, like gasoline and heating fuel. The limited amount of oil that Iran did export to the EU, mostly to Spain and Italy, will eventually be diverted to China or to another Asian country not participating in the embargo. While this change will have a destabilizing effect on the world oil market in the short run as the barrels get switched around, it will eventually work itself out.

Currency crash

    But the bellicose comments out of the Iranian military have had an unintended consequence at home. The value of the Iranian rial has collapsed around 40% to the dollar in the last month to around 1800 rials to $1. The cutoff of the central bank, coupled with the possibility of war with the U.S., caused Iranians to rush out and buy dollars as a hedge to the rial. The rial lost 10% of its value over the weekend as lines formed at banks and in front of the homes of money changers that deal in dollars.