美国痛苦指数创新高
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面对现实吧，不太可能感觉良好。宏观经济咨询机构Capital Economics的保罗•戴尔斯指出，美国痛苦指数——即失业率和消费者价格指数通胀率之和——上个月创下了28年以来的高点。 美国痛苦指数上个月达到了12.7，为1983年以来新高——当时美国时任总统是罗纳德•里根，而股市和债市的大牛市刚刚萌芽。和以往一样，情况可能会进一步恶化(也许已经恶化)。 1983年痛苦指数的高点是14.1，现在看来高得有些吓人，但当时是5年内的最低值。 那些喋喋不休地谈论“失业滞涨”的人们应谨记这一点。是的，如今9.1%的失业率和3.6%的通胀率都不是什么好消息。但当里根在1980年11月的大选中击败吉米•卡特的时候，失业率是7.5%，而通胀率是12.7%，加起来痛苦指数超过了20。 幸运的是，这是我们最后一次到达如此高位。要说现今的决策者们已经锁定胜局，当然有些牵强。但如果有人对70年代的数据视而不见，宣称我们目前陷入滞涨之中，也同样不足为信。 |
Let's face it, probably not. The misery index – the sum of the unemployment and consumer price inflation rates – hit a 28-year high last month, notes Paul Dales of Capital Economics.
At a recent 12.7, the misery index is at its highest level since 1983, when Ronald Reagan was president and the great bull markets in stocks and bonds were in their infancy. Yet as always, it's worth recalling that things can be (and have been) worse. The 1983 peak was 14.1, which looks terrifyingly high now but at the time was the lowest reading in five years. This is worth bearing in mind for those who drone on endlessly about "jobless stagflation." Yes, 9.1% joblessness and 3.6% inflation are both bad news. But hey, when Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in the November 1980 election, unemployment was 7.5% and inflation was, um, 12.7%, for a nifty misery score above 20. That, fortunately, was the last time we reached that exalted level. It is certainly a stretch to say today's policymakers are nailing it, but it's equally hard to believe anyone can look at the data from the 1970s and claim what we have now is stagflation. |
