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汇率赶底大战:欧元能否赶上美元

汇率赶底大战:欧元能否赶上美元

Colin Barr 2011-06-10
主要货币汇率竞相赶底,各国竞争将愈演愈烈。

有人想重头再来吗?

    美元起步不错,过去一年美元兑一篮子主要贸易伙伴国的货币汇率下跌16%。但身处美国之外的人们并不是没有看到货币贬值带来的好处——出口商品价格更低,用贬值货币偿债导致负债压力减轻,同时有大把机会可以将自己的麻烦归咎于倒霉的央行官员。

    Eurogroup主席让-克洛德•容克周一下午表示,欧元“相比其他主要参考货币客观高估。”这番评论出现在希腊债务危机随时可能爆发之际,但欧元兑美元——过去一年上涨22%(见右图)——仍接近52周高点1.47美元。

    容克是在法国斯特拉斯堡作出上述评论的,当时他和另外一位欧洲高官奥利•瑞恩试图证明希腊问题不一定会导致金融危机。

    如果说希腊沉重不堪的债务负担属于急症,那么欧元就是陈年旧病了。以欧元为纽带连结起来的国家财政状况参差不齐,财力薄弱的国家除了大幅减薪外别无良策来增强竞争力。

    这一弊病是将希腊、葡萄牙置于与德国、法国同一货币联盟后的恶果。欧元汇率越高,弱国感受到的痛就越深切。容克建议,未来官员们在对这个明显两极化的联盟进行改革时,必须考虑这个问题。

    “欧盟理事会有同行认为欧元区应该引入汇率政策,”他说,“我非常赞同这一观点。因为从长远来看,在一个结构性的全球化世界中,一个连汇率政策构想都没有的经济货币组织不会有什么前途。”

    即便是这样一位著名官员呼吁欧元贬值,但目前并不清楚市场是否会迅速应这种呼吁。糟糕数据迭出,经济学家们称美国数据已进入“疲弱期”,认为这种状况将很快结束的人寥寥无几。

    只要美国经济依然疲弱,美联储(Federal Reserve)继续维持接近于零的利率水平,资金就可能继续流入利率较高的欧洲,而且欧洲央行(European Central Bank)已表示不久将进一步收紧政策。

    此外,虽然欧洲在应对希腊危机方面乏善可陈,但美国决策者们面临的问题确实严峻,同时,他们未能协调一致,有效应对。这同样可能导致资金继续流出美元。

    美国银行(Bank of America)的经济学家伊森•哈里斯周一在致客户的一份报告中写道:

    尽管房地产市场持续低迷,但就如何化解这场危机却缺乏认真深入的讨论。尽管失业率高达9%,但就如何加快就业市场复苏也没有认真深入的讨论。尽管经济疲弱迹象清晰,但要求快速收紧货币和财政政策的压力却丝毫未减。美国需要设定一条清晰的路径,实现可持续性负债,但收紧时机应由复苏力度决定。

    当然,国会就是国会,其未来动向充满了不确定性。只要希腊危机不爆发,美元在赶底过程中就不太可能丢掉领先地位。

    The dollar has a nice head start, having dropped 16% over the past year against a basket of major U.S. trading partners. But the benefits of a weaker currency – cheaper exports, the ability to stick it to your creditors by repaying them with less valuable paper, abundant opportunity to blame your problems on hapless central bankers – aren't lost on people outside this country.

    The euro is "objectively overvalued in comparison with other major reference currencies," Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said Monday afternoon. The comment comes as the euro, up 22% against the dollar over the past year (see chart, right), trades near a 52-week high at $1.47 even as the Greek debt crisis threatens to erupt.

    Juncker made the remarks in Strasbourg, France, as he and another top European official, Olli Rehn, tried to make the case that the Greek mess needn't lead to a financial crisis.

    But if Greece's unbearable debt burden is the acute problem, the chronic one is the currency that ties together financially weak and strong states without giving the weaker ones any recourse to improving their competitive positions, short of sharp wage cuts.

    That is a problem in putting Greece and Portugal in the same currency union as Germany and France at any rate, but the higher the euro exchange rate go the more intense the pain gets in the weaker states. Juncker suggested officials will have to consider this as they adopt reforms to what is obviously a broken union.

    "There are colleagues in the European Council who think that the euro zone should have an exchange rate policy," he said. "I'm more inclined to think that we should have an exchange rate policy because in a structurally globalized world an economic and monetary unit which doesn't even have a vision of an exchange rate policy isn't really in the long run going to have a satisfactory profile."

    Yet even with a prominent official calling for a weaker euro, it's far from clear that markets will be in any hurry to comply. A run of weak numbers has economists referring as one to the "soft patch" in U.S. data, and few expect it to end any time soon.

    As long as the U.S. economy wheezes and the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates near zero, money is likely to keep flowing to Europe, where rates are higher and the European Central Bank has signaled it intends to further tighten policy soon.

    What's more, while Europe obviously isn't exactly setting any records in responding decisively to the Greek crisis, it's hard to overstate the scale of problems facing U.S. policymakers – or their failure to devise something approaching a coherent response. This too is apt to keep funds flowing away from the dollar.

    As Bank of America economist Ethan Harris writes in a note to clients Monday:

    Despite the ongoing recession in the housing market, there is no serious discussion about how to resolve the crisis. Despite a 9% unemployment rate, there is no serious discussion about how to speed up the job market recovery. And despite clear signs of economic weakness, there is no let-up in the pressure for quick monetary and fiscal tightening. The U.S. needs to set a clear path to debt sustainability, but the timing of tightening should be dictated by the strength of the recovery.

    Of course, Congress being Congress, what should happen is anything but a sure thing. As long as the Greek crisis stays on the back burner, the dollar looks unlikely to give up its lead spot in the race lower.

 

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