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商业 - 金融

穆迪再次下调希腊评级

Colin Barr 2011年06月03日

希腊喜剧周三再度峰回路转。

    穆迪(Moody's)再次下调希腊评级,违约风险为50-50,理由是希腊财政拮据以及欧洲政局令人忧虑。

    这家评级机构将希腊评级降至Caa1,是其评级体系中倒数第三位评级;同时维持对其前景的负面判断,意味着穆迪可能不久会再次下调其评级。穆迪给出的理由是随着借款增加、希腊经济萎缩,希腊的债务负担日益沉重,未来希腊无法维持债务负担稳定的概率上升。另外,穆迪还提到了希腊“高度不确定的增长前景”。

    这项决定再次确认了“希腊政府将无力偿还债务”的事实,除非希腊撕毁3,000多亿欧元债务的部分欠条。若果真如此,这意味着投资者将被迫分担希腊纳税人承担的部分痛楚。

    市场已接受了这种观点,近日来2年期希腊债券的收益率高达25%。去年实施的救助方案将迫使希腊于明年重返市场、募集更多资金,现在看来这样做的成本可能高不可攀。

    但是无论如何,必须从某个地方筹集到资金。虽然希腊已采取了压缩政府支出的紧缩财政政策,但希腊预算赤字仍在攀升——这也是为何穆迪等评级公司一段时间来一直警告称希腊急需进行债务重组。3月份穆迪已调低希腊评级,上月又宣布可能很快会再次下调。

    不过,虽然来自欧洲的鼓点声有些不妙,但有理由相信舞蹈还将持续一阵子。“穆迪认为希腊债务重组并非不可避免,”该评级机构称,“因为违约事件很可能在短期内就会引发剧烈动荡,对欧洲资本市场的全面影响将很难预测,而控制起来则是难上加难。

    Moody's downgraded Greece again, putting 50-50 odds on a default thanks to the country's strapped finances and tortured European politics.

    The rating agency cut Greece's rating to Caa1, its third-lowest rating, and kept its outlook negative, meaning another downgrade could come soon. Moody's cited rising chances that the country won't stabilize its debt burden, which has been getting heavier as borrowings rise and the economy shrinks. It also blamed Greece's "highly uncertain growth prospects."

    The decision is the latest recognition of the fact that the Greek government won't be able to pay its bills unless it rips up some of the 300 billion-plus euros of IOUs it has issued. That would mean forcing investors to share some of the pain being borne by Greek taxpayers, on the occasions they can be located.

    The market has caught onto this view, with two-year Greek bonds trading at yields as high as 25% in recent days. The bailout package adopted last year would force the Greeks to come back to market for more funds over the next year, which now looks impossibly costly.

    But the money is going to have to come from somewhere. The Greek budget deficit has been growing even as the country adopts austerity measures aimed at curbing government spending – which is why Moody's and others have been warning for some time about the need for a debt restructuring. Moody's downgraded Greece in March and said last month another might be on the way.

    Yet as ominous as the drumbeat out of Europe is, there is some reason to believe the dancing will go on for a bit. "Moody's does not believe that a restructuring of Greece's debt is inevitable," the rating agency says. "This is because a default in the short term would very likely be highly destabilizing, and the full impact on Europe's capital markets would be hard to predict and harder still to control."

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