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底特律面临千载难逢的机遇

底特律面临千载难逢的机遇

Alex Taylor III 2011-04-22

    五十年以来,面对丰田(Toyota)和本田(Honda)等日系汽车制造商更精巧舒适的车型设计,底特律三大汽车制造商(通用汽车、福特和克莱斯勒——译注)节节败退。在此期间,日系车制造商已突破贸易限制、币值高估以及“购买美国货”论调的重围,并在美国赢得了超过三分之一的汽车市场份额。

    现在,扭转乾坤的时机到了。对于美系汽车制造商,这是历经两代人以来的最佳机遇。他们有可能击退日系汽车,重新夺回本土江山。

    一系列始料不及的事件使这场博弈向美方倾斜,比如长期的产品趋势和短期汇率波动;更为不幸的是,三月日本大地震之后,日系汽车生产面临着接踵而来的断供危机。

    首先,过去油价攀升总会使得日系汽车获利,现在底特律终于得以扭转局面。

    以往,油价曾于1974年和1980年两度飙升,甚至在2008年仍不改疯涨势头。这种时候,日系汽车制造商总能从中获利,原因在于他们可以随时供应小型车,而这恰是美系汽车制造商所望尘莫及的。二十世纪七十年代,丰田卡罗拉(Toyota Corolla)、本田思域(Honda Civic)曾与雪佛兰织女星(Chevy Vega)、福特平托(Ford Pinto)一争雌雄。而在2008年,面对每加仑4美元的高油价,丰田普锐斯(Toyota Prius)备受消费者亲睐。

    不过,2011年情况有了变化。通用汽车公司(General Motors)已售出5万多辆小型车雪佛兰克鲁兹(Chevy Cruze);与此同时,他们还打算在今年下半年投放上市超小型索尼克(Sonic)和超微型乐驰(Spark)。今年三月,福特销售了17,178辆新、旧款福克斯(Focus)和9,787辆嘉年华(Fiesta),这些小型车和微型车占据其车型比例的三分之一。克莱斯勒(Chrysler)在菲亚特500(Fiat500)上市当月便成功销售了500辆该车,这个数字确实不大,却足以避免该公司在小型车市场的竞争中被淘汰出局。

    底特律尚落后的,是在高燃油经济的替代燃料汽车这一细分市场。今年三月,丰田创下了18,605辆油电混合型普锐斯的惊人销售佳绩,并且在这个已霸占了十年的细分市场里,仍然处于领先地位。相比之下,通用汽车的雪佛兰沃蓝达(Chevy Volt) 虽然具有复杂的汽油辅助电力的动力系统,但在上市的第二个月里仅卖出了608辆。

    随着小型汽车的利多趋势,底特律的下一个重大机会在于,日元坚挺所导致的日本业界日益升高的成本。上世纪70年代,适逢日本平稳扩张期,日元曾一度低至300日元兑1美元。 此后,日元逐渐走强。尽管如此,在2005年前后仍维持在120日元兑1美元的水平。通用汽车公司前任首席执行官瑞克•瓦格纳经常抱怨日本政府不公道,为了让本国汽车制造商更有竞争力,刻意压低日元汇率。日本从未承认这点。当然,瓦格纳也已经卸任。

    日元持续走强。在上月日本灾难性地震之后,日元兑美元汇率竟攀升至76.53,创下历史新高。一场自然灾害居然能使日元走强,似乎是有悖常理的,但交易员们的说法是预期日本将换回本国货币以重建家园。

    直至本文撰稿时日元又降至84:1的美元比,这对于日系汽车制造商而言,仍然负担沉重,因为日商在美国所销售的三分之一的汽车及零件是在日本本土制造。现在不仅商业成本提高了,而且收入也减少了,因为在美元流回日本又兑换成日元之后,实际收益又打了一层折扣。

    但是日元走强带来的贸易庇护不会持续太久,因为日系汽车制造商们也在加速采取对冲策略(hedging strategies)。例如,很久之前,丰田就声称有意将普锐斯生产线转移到美国。不过,底特律虽然已大幅降低了与日本相比的成本劣势,但是仍有必要趁势快速推进才行。

    总之,底特律汽车制造商可以利用接下来的几个月时间大力宣传,夺回那些平常青睐购买日系车的美国消费者。由于日本地震导致供应短缺,日系汽车变得要么太贵,要么干脆买不到。那些习惯买日系车的美国消费者不得不考虑其他产品。

    供应短缺不仅影响了日系车的本土生产,由于零部件的短缺,丰田、本田和日产(Nissan)也纷纷宣布削减在美产量。这会令经销商头痛不已,并最终殃及消费者。据《美国汽车新闻》(Automotive News)报导:本周,美国最大的经销商集团AutoNation预计会削减30%-50%的日系汽车的进货。5月份会开始面临库存紧缩,日系汽车的缺货可能会持续4个月。从而导致其产量减少、市场价格抬高。

    美国本土汽车制造商也面临零部件短缺的问题,因为一些零部件需要从日本进口,如微处理器。但总体而言,相比日本他们仍旧能保有较强的姿态维持生产。

    由于丰田汽车“召回门”事件的影响,底特律汽车制造商已经开始从日本手中夺回一些市场份额。今年一季度,日系车在美国市场的份额由去年同期的39.4%跌至今年的38.8%。底特律车系在美国市场份额上升了0.2%, 从而达到44%的市场占有率 [韩国的现代(Hyundai)和起亚(Kia)占据了其余的市场份额]。

    发迹于别人公司——或是别的国家——的不幸遭遇也许不会使你成为奥普拉脱口秀节目的座上宾。但是从积极的角度来考虑,这不啻为一次难得的机会——不利用来发挥自己的最大潜力实属可惜。

    曾几何时,销售商担心美国国产车永远不会赢得婴儿潮一代的青睐,因为它们从来没有机会一展风采。现在扭转乾坤的历史时刻到了,机不可失,时不再来。

    The retreat by the Detroit Three in the face of smaller, smarter, fitter cars by Toyota, Honda, and company is a 50-year phenomenon. In that time, Japanese automakers have bucked trade restrictions, an overvalued currency, and "Buy America" sentiments to capture more than one-third of the U.S. car market.

    Now, a tipping point has arrived. U.S. automakers have their best opportunity in two generations to hold the Japanese off and push them back.

    An improbable series of events has tilted the table in the Americans' favor: long-term product trends, short-term currency fluctuations, and, tragically, a string of supply disruptions brought on by March's earthquake.

    To start with, Detroit is finally positioned to head off Japanese gains that traditionally accompany rising gasoline prices.

    In past times like 1974 and 1980 when oil prices spiked -- and even as recently as 2008 -- the Japanese have been able to capitalize because they had a ready supply of capable small cars and the U.S. didn't. In the 1970s, the Toyota Corolla and Honda Civic were competing against the likes of the Chevy Vega and Ford Pinto; in 2008, the Toyota Prius became the car of choice for coping with $4 per gallon gasoline.

    Not in 2011. General Motors already has found more than 50,000 customers for the compact Chevy Cruze; meanwhile the subcompact Sonic and even smaller Spark are due to arrive later this year. Ford (F, Fortune 500) sold 17,178 old and new Focuses and 9,787 Fiestas in March -- compacts and subcompacts representing one-third of its car lineup. And Chrysler managed to sell exactly 500 Fiat 500s during its first month of availability -- not a huge number to be sure but enough to avoid a shutout in the small car game.

    One high m.p.g. segment where Detroit still lags is alternative fuel vehicles. Toyota (TM) sold an astounding 18,605 Prius gas-electric hybrids in March, continuing to lead a segment that it has dominated for more than a decade. By comparison, GM (GM) was able to move just 608 copies of the Chevy Volt, with its complex gasoline-assisted electric powertrain, during its second full month on the market.

    Flush with revenue-generating small cars, Detroit's next big opportunity stems from Japan's rising cost of doing business because of the strong yen. During the halcyon years of Japanese expansion in the 1970s, the yen sometimes traded as low as 300 to the dollar. It gradually strengthened over the years but was still trading around 120 in the mid-2000s. Former GM CEO Rick Wagoner complained frequently that the Japanese government unfairly kept the yen artificially low to give automakers a competitive advantage. The Japanese never conceded the point: Wagoner, of course, is gone.

    The yen has continued to strengthen, and in the wake of the disastrous Japanese earthquake last month, it climbed to its highest level ever: 76.53. It seems counter-intuitive that a natural disaster would bolster the yen, but traders explain that the Japanese were expected to buy back their home currency to fund the country's reconstruction.

    The yen has since weakened to 84 to the dollar. But that still exacts a heavy toll on automakers, one-third of whose sales come from cars built in their home country and exported to the U.S., as well as parts manufacturers. Besides pushing up their cost of doing business, it reduces their revenue from U.S. sales when the dollars come home and are converted back to yen.

    But the shelter provided by the strong yen won't last forever as automakers accelerate their hedging strategies. Toyota, for instance, has long stated its intention to move Prius production to the U.S. So Detroit, which has made great progress in reducing its cost disadvantage with Japan, needs to continue to move quickly down that path.

    Finally, Detroit can use the next several months to introduce itself to American buyers who would ordinarily shop Japanese brands but are turned away because earthquake-caused supply shortages make the cars too expensive or simply unavailable.

    The shortages don't only affect cars made in Japan. Toyota, Honda, and Nissan all say they are going to curtail U.S. production because of a shortage of parts. That's going to cause pain for dealers, and, eventually customers. Automotive News reports this week that AutoNation (AN, Fortune 500), the nation's largest dealership group, expects a 30% to 50% reduction in shipments of some Japanese brands. It is planning for inventory disruptions to hit in May and says they could continue for four months. That will drive up prices as well as reduce availability.

    Domestic automakers will face their own shortages of parts sourced from Japan like microprocessors but overall are in a much stronger position to maintain production.

    Detroit had already begun to claw back some market share from Japan because of Toyota's recall problems. Japan's share of the U.S. auto market fell from 39.4% a year ago to 38.8% in the first three months of the year. Detroit picked up two-tenths of a percent, expanding to 44% (Hyundai and Kia gobbled up the rest).

    Prospering from another company's -- or country's - misfortunes probably won't get you a guest shot on Oprah. To cast it in less negative terms, it is better to think of this as taking advantage of a rare opportunity -- and it is too good a one not to lever to its maximum potential.

    For years, marketers have worried that Baby Boomers would be permanently lost as customers for domestic cars because they had never been exposed to them. Now they have an historic chance to reverse that -- and they have never been in a better position to do so.

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