中国的绿色增长：且听李路为何乐观
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中国经济增长的环境后果众所周知，且触目惊心：更多的汽车，更多的煤炭和更多的有毒污物染黑了中国的小溪和河流。不那么为人所知的是为何还有理由心存希望。 “今年是关键的一年，一个转变的时刻，”喜马拉雅资本管理公司（Himalaya Capital Management） 董事长李路表示。李路也是股神沃伦•巴菲特将来退休后的热门接班候选人[最近随着主要竞争对手戴维•索科尔同伯克希尔哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）分道扬镳，李路的入选概率上升]。 李路在上周《财富》杂志（Fortune）举办的头脑风暴绿色会议（Brainstorm Green）上向观众宣称，中国政府正在考虑一个五年计划，可能设立激动人心的污染减排目标。中国的两大电网目前都在测试可存储来自于风能、太阳能等绿色能源发电的系统。如果试运行证明是有效的，李路相信这将为中国政府“在短时间内以十亿瓦级别”推广清洁能源打开了大门。 李路表示，这股即将到来的绿色浪潮——若果真成为现实——背后的推动力并不是中国巨大的二氧化碳排放量（中国已超过美国成为全球最大的温室气体排放国），而是中国众多燃煤工厂排放的二氧化硫。他指出，“煤炭在中国造成的真正威胁并非二氧化碳，而是二氧化硫。这会造成人们死亡。” 李路认为中国要迅速显著地降低对煤炭的依赖，最佳选择是深藏在其国土之下的天然气储藏。虽然中国不像美国那样已对庞大的页岩气储藏有相当的了解（页岩气储藏增加了美国天然气产量，并推低了美国国内的天然气价格），但是李路相信中国的页岩也蕴藏着类似的光明前景。 |
The environmental consequences of China's economic growth are both well-known and horrifying: more cars, more coal and more toxic crud fouling its streams and rivers. Less appreciated are the reasons for hope. "This is a critical year, really a transformational moment," says Li Lu, the chairman of Himalaya Capital Management and a leading candidate to take over for Warren Buffett when the investing guru eventually retires. (Li's chances improved recently when leading rival David Sokol parted ways with Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB).) The Chinese government is mulling a five-year plan with potentially dramatic goals for reductions in pollution, Li told an audience at Fortune's Brainstorm Green conference this week. China's two major power grids are both testing systems that can store green energy from wind and solar. If they prove efficient in ongoing trials, Li believes, it will open the door to the government rolling out clean energy "on a gigawatt scale in a short amount of time." The driving force behind the coming green wave -- if it indeed materializes -- will not be the massive carbon dioxide output by China, which has passed the U.S. as the biggest greenhouse gas emitter. Instead it's the sulfer dioxide the country's coal plants emit, he says. "The real threat of coal in China is not the CO2 it's the SO2. It's killing people," Li says. Li believes that the best bet for quickly and dramatically slashing its reliance on coal are deposits of natural gas buried deep underneath the country. While not as well understood as the massive shale deposits in the U.S. that have boosted the production of natural gas and sent its price plunging, Li is confident China's shale holds similar good news. |
