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人类手握史上最强大的技术,却用来斩断年轻人求职之门

Mark Minevich
2026-11-07

到目前为止,美国企业界主要用新技术撰写营销文案和削减岗位。

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当前人类掌握着史上最强大的技术,然而到目前为止,美国企业界主要用新技术撰写营销文案和削减岗位。

截至9月,美国雇主宣布的裁员人数达573,195人。据裁员安置公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas数据,其中120,136起裁员原因与AI相关,为今年裁员诱因之首。仅科技公司就宣布裁员165,925人,较去年同期增加54%。

公平地说,宣布的裁员总数较2025年前九个月下降了39%,且9月裁员原因中仅约9%与AI相关。更大的影响体现在招聘上。斯坦福大学经济学家埃里克・布莱恩约弗森、巴拉特・钱达尔与陈如雨(音译,Ruyu Chen)借助ADP薪资数据发现,截至6月在受AI影响最大的职业中,22至25岁年轻人就业人数相比受AI影响较小行业的青年增长水平,存在19%的相对缺口。一年前,这一差距为15%。他们写道,调整“主要表现为减少招聘年轻员工,而非辞退现有员工。”

公司并没有裁掉基层员工,只是干脆不招新人,还用提升效率当借口。

经济繁荣惠及了谁?

纸面数据上看,经济表现强劲。美国经济分析局数据显示,三季度实际GDP年增长率为3.4%,高于二季度的2.2%。计算机设备支出是主要拉动项,也标志着资本支出软着陆。

但对普通民众而言,今年完全算不上软着陆。截至9月的一年中,居民消费者价格指数上涨了3.7%,汽油价格上涨了约34%。3月伊朗战争封锁霍尔木兹海峡以来,石油经历了世界银行所称“史上最大的石油市场冲击”。

另据凯撒家庭基金会(KFF)的数据,如今美国劳动者每年平均为家庭医疗保险支付7,471美元,较2025年上涨9%,而同期薪资涨幅仅3.7%。实际上,民众收入相当于缩水了。

迫在眉睫的电力和水危机

AI建设浪潮也在跟普通家庭争夺电力资源。美国最大的电网运营商PJM独立市场监督员估计,数据中心导致2025/2026年电价上涨,按照美国能源经济与金融分析研究所(Institute for Energy Economics and Financial)分析,造成的成本约93亿美元。华盛顿特区电力公司Pepco的居民用户从2025年6月起,每月电费上涨约21美元。其中约10美元来自容量电价(容量电价是指电网为了保证高峰时刻有电可用,向电厂花钱预定预留发电能力的费用,与当天实际用不用电无关,最后会分摊到居民电费账单上——译者注)。

我很愤慨。解决问题并不需要研发新技术。模型已存在,算力已存在,资本也在投入。缺失的是将资源投向何处的决策。

美国土木工程师学会(American Society of Civil Engineers)估计,美国每两分钟就有一根主供水管破裂,每天约有60亿加仑(约合227亿升)处理过的自来水流失。我们可以用AI预测负荷并平衡电网,让数据中心承担带来的供电压力成本。可以用AI在供水系统中寻找泄漏点。可以在干旱影响农场之前搭建预测模型,检查桥梁,强化供应链,并降低诊断成本,而不是提高保费。

今年6月,英国水务公司Northumbrian Water报告称,一项为期六个月的试验利用AI声学传感器帮助工作人员定位隐蔽泄漏点,每天可减少近640万升水资源损耗。这才是必须立即投资和落地应用的技术。

圣何塞水务公司在2,400英里的管网中安装了13,600个固定声学传感器,该系统发现483处泄漏,节约了超4亿加仑(约合15亿升)自来水。此外,新墨西哥州的 LeakTracer卫星加AI项目第一年就识别出181英里管道上的216处泄漏。完成必要修复后每年可回收3.28亿加仑(约合12亿升)水,节省约50.5万美元。

这类方案必须成为行业标准。

保障未来的四个步骤

第一,必须将能源韧性上升为国家安全问题。应通过监管机制,要求数据中心为其催生的电网升级和容量买单。普通家庭不应该为数十亿美元科技巨头所需的基础设施提供补贴。AEP Ohio已出台规则,如果数据中心新客户在通电前取消服务,须报销100%的建设费用。制造需求的公司承担风险,应成为基本原则。

2025年7月,我所在的新泽西州已将《数据中心公平分担法案》(Data Center Fair Share Act)签署生效,为大型数据中心设立了独立的电价档位。法案要求数据中心承担基础设施成本,提供财务担保,覆盖至少未来十年85%的申报负荷,企业也可以通过出资扶持其他区域削减用电需求,抵扣容量义务。该法案每年可为纳税人节省超过10亿美元。其他州也在跟进,对大负荷用户征收高额最低需求费,制定配套建设出资规则,避免项目未达预期或退出时损失转嫁到居民身上。

第二,从源头控制医疗成本。利用AI减少不必要的检查、手术和晚期干预,而不是简单地将更高保费的压力转移给家庭。在公共雇员健康计划中,对医院过高收费设置上限,为弱势医院配套保障措施。俄勒冈州将网络内医院支付上限设定为联邦医保费率的两倍,27个月内节省了约1.075亿美元。同时要求由公共资金资助的医疗AI项目,必须证明其能够在不降低医疗质量的情况下降低成本。如果患者的账单金额不变,所谓效率提升毫无意义。

第三,用AI帮助劳动者快速再培训,要比AI替代岗位的速度更快。将AI投资和数据中心建设的公共激励措施与可量化的基层岗位招聘和学徒制承诺绑定,让AI在提高效率的同时创造就业。如果基层岗位不断消失,只有AI所有者受益,年轻一代将一步步走向经济困境。公共AI激励措施与新增带薪学徒和基层岗位挂钩,核实就业6个月和12个月后支付款项,不能培训课程结束后就直接发钱。

这不是空想,已有现成模式可循。今年7月,劳工部通过学徒项目拨款近1.62亿美元,资金发放与员工留存和能力进阶挂钩。应该奖励创造岗位,建设产业的雇主。展望未来,任何因AI算力获得税收抵免、加速审批或公共电力采购支持的企业,都必须资助或提供相应数量的带薪学徒岗或基层岗位,并公开披露进展。

最后,公共基础设施也应获得私营数据中心同等的AI投入。AI能发挥最大影响力的领域之一是公用事业和供水系统。政府将AI嵌入电网和供水系统以稳定国家基础设施,也应利用AI评估道路和高速公路状况并持续监控,在事故发生前预判维修需求,而不是事后从中吸取教训。可强制规定,将数据中心税收收入的一部分定向用于本地基础设施技术。今年7月起,弗吉尼亚州以每千瓦时1.1美分的税率对数据中心电力消耗征税。各州应将收入一部分投向泄漏检测、电网管理和桥梁巡查,支付一线运维人员的薪酬。

可以设立专门的公共AI基础设施基金,通过对大型数据中心电力或算力容量征收小额、透明的税收融资,再搭配联邦政府和慈善资本配套注资。

本周二选民走向投票站时,他们不会为GDP数字投票。民心所向是上次投票以来,生活变得更轻松还是更艰难。对于AI,问题的关键不在于能否用技术解决民生问题并找到解决方案——我们具备这样的能力。真正的问题是,掌权者是否愿意这样做,还是只想继续剥夺下一代的就业机会。

马克·米涅维奇是Going Global Ventures创始人兼总裁,艾睿铂咨询数字基础设施高级顾问。他担任Ares Management数字基础设施咨询委员会、富兰克林邓普顿AI咨询委员会以及国际数据中心管理局董事会成员,也是Mayfield以及硅谷和欧洲多家初创公司(包括一家纳斯达克上市公司)的战略顾问。他还是美国竞争力委员会高级研究员,AI向善基金会执行委员会主席,并著有《AI驱动的地球》(Wiley出版社出版)一书。

Fortune.com上评论文章中表达的观点仅代表作者个人观点,并不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

当前人类掌握着史上最强大的技术,然而到目前为止,美国企业界主要用新技术撰写营销文案和削减岗位。

截至9月,美国雇主宣布的裁员人数达573,195人。据裁员安置公司Challenger, Gray & Christmas数据,其中120,136起裁员原因与AI相关,为今年裁员诱因之首。仅科技公司就宣布裁员165,925人,较去年同期增加54%。

公平地说,宣布的裁员总数较2025年前九个月下降了39%,且9月裁员原因中仅约9%与AI相关。更大的影响体现在招聘上。斯坦福大学经济学家埃里克・布莱恩约弗森、巴拉特・钱达尔与陈如雨(音译,Ruyu Chen)借助ADP薪资数据发现,截至6月在受AI影响最大的职业中,22至25岁年轻人就业人数相比受AI影响较小行业的青年增长水平,存在19%的相对缺口。一年前,这一差距为15%。他们写道,调整“主要表现为减少招聘年轻员工,而非辞退现有员工。”

公司并没有裁掉基层员工,只是干脆不招新人,还用提升效率当借口。

经济繁荣惠及了谁?

纸面数据上看,经济表现强劲。美国经济分析局数据显示,三季度实际GDP年增长率为3.4%,高于二季度的2.2%。计算机设备支出是主要拉动项,也标志着资本支出软着陆。

但对普通民众而言,今年完全算不上软着陆。截至9月的一年中,居民消费者价格指数上涨了3.7%,汽油价格上涨了约34%。3月伊朗战争封锁霍尔木兹海峡以来,石油经历了世界银行所称“史上最大的石油市场冲击”。

另据凯撒家庭基金会(KFF)的数据,如今美国劳动者每年平均为家庭医疗保险支付7,471美元,较2025年上涨9%,而同期薪资涨幅仅3.7%。实际上,民众收入相当于缩水了。

迫在眉睫的电力和水危机

AI建设浪潮也在跟普通家庭争夺电力资源。美国最大的电网运营商PJM独立市场监督员估计,数据中心导致2025/2026年电价上涨,按照美国能源经济与金融分析研究所(Institute for Energy Economics and Financial)分析,造成的成本约93亿美元。华盛顿特区电力公司Pepco的居民用户从2025年6月起,每月电费上涨约21美元。其中约10美元来自容量电价(容量电价是指电网为了保证高峰时刻有电可用,向电厂花钱预定预留发电能力的费用,与当天实际用不用电无关,最后会分摊到居民电费账单上——译者注)。

我很愤慨。解决问题并不需要研发新技术。模型已存在,算力已存在,资本也在投入。缺失的是将资源投向何处的决策。

美国土木工程师学会(American Society of Civil Engineers)估计,美国每两分钟就有一根主供水管破裂,每天约有60亿加仑(约合227亿升)处理过的自来水流失。我们可以用AI预测负荷并平衡电网,让数据中心承担带来的供电压力成本。可以用AI在供水系统中寻找泄漏点。可以在干旱影响农场之前搭建预测模型,检查桥梁,强化供应链,并降低诊断成本,而不是提高保费。

今年6月,英国水务公司Northumbrian Water报告称,一项为期六个月的试验利用AI声学传感器帮助工作人员定位隐蔽泄漏点,每天可减少近640万升水资源损耗。这才是必须立即投资和落地应用的技术。

圣何塞水务公司在2,400英里的管网中安装了13,600个固定声学传感器,该系统发现483处泄漏,节约了超4亿加仑(约合15亿升)自来水。此外,新墨西哥州的 LeakTracer卫星加AI项目第一年就识别出181英里管道上的216处泄漏。完成必要修复后每年可回收3.28亿加仑(约合12亿升)水,节省约50.5万美元。

这类方案必须成为行业标准。

保障未来的四个步骤

第一,必须将能源韧性上升为国家安全问题。应通过监管机制,要求数据中心为其催生的电网升级和容量买单。普通家庭不应该为数十亿美元科技巨头所需的基础设施提供补贴。AEP Ohio已出台规则,如果数据中心新客户在通电前取消服务,须报销100%的建设费用。制造需求的公司承担风险,应成为基本原则。

2025年7月,我所在的新泽西州已将《数据中心公平分担法案》(Data Center Fair Share Act)签署生效,为大型数据中心设立了独立的电价档位。法案要求数据中心承担基础设施成本,提供财务担保,覆盖至少未来十年85%的申报负荷,企业也可以通过出资扶持其他区域削减用电需求,抵扣容量义务。该法案每年可为纳税人节省超过10亿美元。其他州也在跟进,对大负荷用户征收高额最低需求费,制定配套建设出资规则,避免项目未达预期或退出时损失转嫁到居民身上。

第二,从源头控制医疗成本。利用AI减少不必要的检查、手术和晚期干预,而不是简单地将更高保费的压力转移给家庭。在公共雇员健康计划中,对医院过高收费设置上限,为弱势医院配套保障措施。俄勒冈州将网络内医院支付上限设定为联邦医保费率的两倍,27个月内节省了约1.075亿美元。同时要求由公共资金资助的医疗AI项目,必须证明其能够在不降低医疗质量的情况下降低成本。如果患者的账单金额不变,所谓效率提升毫无意义。

第三,用AI帮助劳动者快速再培训,要比AI替代岗位的速度更快。将AI投资和数据中心建设的公共激励措施与可量化的基层岗位招聘和学徒制承诺绑定,让AI在提高效率的同时创造就业。如果基层岗位不断消失,只有AI所有者受益,年轻一代将一步步走向经济困境。公共AI激励措施与新增带薪学徒和基层岗位挂钩,核实就业6个月和12个月后支付款项,不能培训课程结束后就直接发钱。

这不是空想,已有现成模式可循。今年7月,劳工部通过学徒项目拨款近1.62亿美元,资金发放与员工留存和能力进阶挂钩。应该奖励创造岗位,建设产业的雇主。展望未来,任何因AI算力获得税收抵免、加速审批或公共电力采购支持的企业,都必须资助或提供相应数量的带薪学徒岗或基层岗位,并公开披露进展。

最后,公共基础设施也应获得私营数据中心同等的AI投入。AI能发挥最大影响力的领域之一是公用事业和供水系统。政府将AI嵌入电网和供水系统以稳定国家基础设施,也应利用AI评估道路和高速公路状况并持续监控,在事故发生前预判维修需求,而不是事后从中吸取教训。可强制规定,将数据中心税收收入的一部分定向用于本地基础设施技术。今年7月起,弗吉尼亚州以每千瓦时1.1美分的税率对数据中心电力消耗征税。各州应将收入一部分投向泄漏检测、电网管理和桥梁巡查,支付一线运维人员的薪酬。

可以设立专门的公共AI基础设施基金,通过对大型数据中心电力或算力容量征收小额、透明的税收融资,再搭配联邦政府和慈善资本配套注资。

本周二选民走向投票站时,他们不会为GDP数字投票。民心所向是上次投票以来,生活变得更轻松还是更艰难。对于AI,问题的关键不在于能否用技术解决民生问题并找到解决方案——我们具备这样的能力。真正的问题是,掌权者是否愿意这样做,还是只想继续剥夺下一代的就业机会。

马克·米涅维奇是Going Global Ventures创始人兼总裁,艾睿铂咨询数字基础设施高级顾问。他担任Ares Management数字基础设施咨询委员会、富兰克林邓普顿AI咨询委员会以及国际数据中心管理局董事会成员,也是Mayfield以及硅谷和欧洲多家初创公司(包括一家纳斯达克上市公司)的战略顾问。他还是美国竞争力委员会高级研究员,AI向善基金会执行委员会主席,并著有《AI驱动的地球》(Wiley出版社出版)一书。

Fortune.com上评论文章中表达的观点仅代表作者个人观点,并不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

We hold the most powerful technology in human history, and so far corporate America is mostly using it to write marketing copy and cut headcount.

Through September, U.S. employers announced 573,195 job cuts. Artificial intelligence was cited in 120,136 of them, more than any other reason this year, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Tech companies alone announced 165,925 cuts, up 54% from the same period last year.

To be fair, total announced cuts are down 39% from the first nine months of 2025, and AI was cited in only about 9% of September’s cuts. The bigger effect is on hiring. Using ADP payroll data, Stanford economists Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar and Ruyu Chen found that as of June, employment among 22- to 25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed occupations was about 19% below where it would be if it had kept pace with young workers in less-exposed jobs. A year earlier, the gap was 15%. They write that the adjustment works “primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations.”

Companies aren’t firing junior workers; they are simply not hiring them. They’re using efficiency as the excuse.

A great economy for whom?

On paper, the economy looks powerful. Real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter, up from 2.2% in the second, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Spending on computer equipment, a soft landing for capital expenditure, was a main driver.

But for the common citizen, this year has been anything but a soft landing. Consumer prices rose 3.7% in the year through September, and gasoline rose about 34%. Since the Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz in March, oil has gone through what the World Bank calls “the largest oil market shock in history.”

In addition, workers now pay an average of $7,471 a year toward family health coverage, up 9% from 2025, according to KFF. Over roughly the same period, wages increased only 3.7%. Effectively, the people took a pay cut.

The looming electricity and water crises

The AI buildout is also competing with households for the same electricity. In PJM, the largest U.S. grid operator, the independent market monitor estimated that data centers caused 63% of the price increase in 2025/2026, about $9.3 billion in costs, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Pepco residential customers in Washington, D.C., saw bills rise about $21 a month starting in June 2025. Roughly $10 of that came from capacity prices.

This is what makes me angry. None of these issues requires new technology to be solved. The models exist, the compute exists, and the capital is already being spent. What’s missing is a decision about where to point it.

The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates a water main breaks every two minutes in the U.S., and about 6 billion gallons of treated water is lost daily. We could use AI to forecast load and balance the grid so data centers pay for the strain they add. We could use AI to find leaks in water systems. We could model drought before it reaches a farm, inspect bridges, harden supply chains, and cut diagnosis costs instead of raising premiums.

In June, in the U.K., Northumbrian Water reported that a six-month trial using AI-powered acoustic sensors to help crews locate hidden leaks was saving nearly 6.4 million liters of water a day. This is the technology we must invest in and deploy immediately.

San Jose Water installed 13,600 fixed acoustic sensors across its 2,400-mile network, and the system found 483 leaks and saved more than 400 million gallons of treated water. Plus, New Mexico’s LeakTracer satellite-plus-AI program identified 216 leaks across 181 miles of pipe in its first year. Completing the needed repairs could recover 328 million gallons and save about $505,000 a year.

This must become the industry standard.

Four steps to secure the future

First, we must treat energy resilience as a national security issue. Data centers must be required via litigation to pay for the grid upgrades and capacity they drive. Families shouldn’t have to subsidize the infrastructure required by multibillion-dollar tech companies. AEP Ohio already requires new data-center customers to reimburse 100% of buildout costs if they cancel before energization. The company creating the demand, carrying the risk, must be fundamental.

In my home state, New Jersey’s Data Center Fair Share Act was signed in July 2026, creating a separate rate class for large data centers. This requires them to cover their own infrastructure costs, demands financial guarantees covering at least 85% of requested load for 10 years, and lets them offset capacity obligations by paying for demand reductions elsewhere. This could save ratepayers more than $1 billion a year. Other states are moving in the same direction, with large-load tariffs imposing high minimum-demand charges and contribution-in-aid rules so residential customers aren’t charged if a project underdelivers or exits.

Next, go after health costs at the source. Use AI to reduce the volume of unnecessary tests, procedures, and late-stage interventions rather than simply shifting higher premiums onto households. Start by capping excessive hospital prices in public employee health plans, with safeguards for vulnerable hospitals. Oregon capped in-network hospital payments at twice Medicare’s rates and saved an estimated $107.5 million over 27 months. Then require publicly funded health care AI projects to demonstrate lower costs without compromising care. Efficiency isn’t helping if the patient’s bill remains the same.

Third, deploy AI to retrain people faster than it replaces them. By tying public incentives for AI investment and data-center build-out to measurable entry-level hiring and apprenticeship commitments, AI will create efficiency and jobs. As entry-level roles disappear for the benefit of only AI owners, the coming generations are being steered toward economic ruin. Tie public AI incentives to net-new paid apprenticeships and entry-level jobs, with payments after six and 12 months of verified employment and not simply after a training course.

This isn’t some pipe dream; the blueprint exists. In July, the Labor Department awarded nearly $162 million through an apprenticeship program that links payments to verified retention and progression milestones. Reward employers for being job creators and builders. Going forward, any firm receiving tax credits, accelerated permitting, or public power-purchase support for AI capacity must fund or host a proportional number of paid apprenticeships or entry-level roles, with progress reported publicly.

Finally, give public infrastructure the same AI investment private data centers get. One of the most impactful improvements AI could make is in utilities and water. As governments embed AI into power grids and water systems to stabilize national infrastructure, we should use AI-driven material evaluation of roads and highways and continuous monitoring to predict repair needs before learning from injuries and accidents. Funding can be mandated by dedicating a share of data-center tax revenue to local infrastructure technology. Virginia began taxing data-center electricity consumption at 1.1 cents per kilowatt-hour in July. States should direct a portion of that revenue toward leak detection, grid management, and bridge inspection, plus paying the employees who act on the findings.

A dedicated public AI infrastructure fund can be created and financed by a small, transparent tax on large data-center power or compute capacity, matched by federal and philanthropic capital.

When voters go to the polls Tuesday, they won’t vote on GDP. They’ll vote on whether things at home got easier or harder since their last ballot was dropped in the box. With AI, the question isn’t whether we can point this technology at the problems that decide whether people can afford to live and create a solution. We can do that. The real question is whether anyone in charge is willing to, or if they just want to keep eliminating the future of work for the next generations.

Mark Minevich is founder and president of Going Global Ventures and a senior advisor at AlixPartners focused on digital infrastructure. He serves on the Digital Infrastructure Advisory Board at Ares Management, the AI advisory board of Franklin Templeton and the board of the International Data Center Authority, and is a strategic advisor at Mayfield and to scale-ups and startups across Silicon Valley and Europe, including a Nasdaq-listed public company. He is a senior fellow at the U.S. Council on Competitiveness, chairs the executive committee at the AI for Good Foundation, and is the author of Our Planet Powered by AI (Wiley).

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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