新一轮美伊交火的倒计时已然开启,但此次破坏范围可能更广,波及更多地区,打击目标也更复杂。
唐纳德·特朗普表示,他正考虑在美国中期选举结束后发动“又一轮小规模史诗狂怒行动”。
据《华尔街日报》消息,美国已向中东增派第三艘航空母舰及一支海军陆战队远征部队,并告知地区盟友,要做好准备对伊朗发起一场短暂但激烈的军事行动。
伊朗方面也升级报复威胁,扬言将发动高强度、毫无保留的反击,以震慑美方的打击行动。
上周六,阿亚图拉·穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei)警告称,伊朗的反击将“不受任何地理限制”,并补充称“应更新目标数据库,以便武装部队打击各类金融和非金融资产”。
近几周,伊朗警告称海底互联网光缆和数据中心或将成为打击目标。此前,一起针对供美军使用的英国空军基地的未遂袭击也被指与伊朗有关。
尽管币安63亿美元加密货币失窃案被认定为黑客所为,但该事件表明此类资产极易遭受网络攻击,而伊朗同样具备成熟的网络攻击能力。与此同时,美国国防部正在调查黑客是否入侵了美国军事基地的制冷系统。
兰德智库上周指出,伊朗的敌对活动“遍布全球”,其代理人黎巴嫩真主党在拉丁美洲保持活跃,另有报道称伊朗策划在欧洲针对平民发动袭击。
分析人士指出:“伊朗一心复仇、不受束缚,报复不太可能局限于全球某一角落。”在他们看来,对美国而言,损失最小的方案是继续实施海上封锁,而非发起新一轮打击。
美伊双方仍在通过中间人传递信息、开展外交斡旋,但双方在核心诉求上均未让步,短期内打破僵局的希望渺茫。
鉴于伊朗当局措辞强硬,并威胁实施无限制报复,专家认为伊朗对美策略已出现变化,冲突再度爆发的概率显著上升。
危机组织(Crisis Group)高级伊朗分析师哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹(Hamidreza Azizi)认为,哈梅内伊此番表态是最重要的动向。
他上周六在X平台发文称:“这番表态表明伊朗军事战略正持续演变。自战争爆发以来,伊朗已逐渐摒弃一贯秉持的对等反击与报复原则,转而采取更具进攻性的策略,以让对手付出代价。最新表态似乎表明这一逻辑正朝着更为激进的方向演进。”
阿齐兹还援引另一名伊朗高层官员的表态:如果确认敌方即将发动军事行动,伊朗可能实施先发制人的打击。此外,哈梅内伊坚称,冲突何时结束、以何种方式结束,都将由伊朗决定。
伊朗对进一步外交努力也持警惕态度,尤其是在去年夏天及今年年初的两轮谈判期间,美方仍持续发起袭击。
阿齐兹补充道:“伊朗似乎愈发决心避免重蹈覆辙——谈判或临时停火后,军事冲突再度爆发。在伊朗看来,此举旨在让美方清楚意识到:一旦再次发动袭击,代价极高、后果难以预判,从而迫使美方彻底放弃打击选项。”
与此同时,伊朗军火库中仍储备着数千枚导弹与无人机,足以对波斯湾邻国造成毁灭性打击。
美国拦截弹库存已降至危险低位,而伊朗新型导弹已已展现出规避防空系统的能力。
昆西研究所(Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)董事阿米尔·汉贾尼(Amir Handjani)指出,考虑到该地区能源基础设施在战争初期已遭受重创,恐难承受新一轮战火。
事实上,中东多地的美军基地已遭到伊朗无人机与导弹的严重打击。
“海湾产油国历经五十年,向世界证明其石油供应能够经受住地区战争的考验。然而,持续八个月的双线作战,已严重削弱这一论点。唯有通过谈判终结战争,才能给该地区时间重建信心。”汉贾尼写道。
“在沙特与胡塞武装战事尚未平息的情况下,若地区再爆发一轮冲突,基础设施和进口商信心都将遭受重创,市场要消化这一冲击,恐需整整一代人的时间。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
新一轮美伊交火的倒计时已然开启,但此次破坏范围可能更广,波及更多地区,打击目标也更复杂。
唐纳德·特朗普表示,他正考虑在美国中期选举结束后发动“又一轮小规模史诗狂怒行动”。
据《华尔街日报》消息,美国已向中东增派第三艘航空母舰及一支海军陆战队远征部队,并告知地区盟友,要做好准备对伊朗发起一场短暂但激烈的军事行动。
伊朗方面也升级报复威胁,扬言将发动高强度、毫无保留的反击,以震慑美方的打击行动。
上周六,阿亚图拉·穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊(Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei)警告称,伊朗的反击将“不受任何地理限制”,并补充称“应更新目标数据库,以便武装部队打击各类金融和非金融资产”。
近几周,伊朗警告称海底互联网光缆和数据中心或将成为打击目标。此前,一起针对供美军使用的英国空军基地的未遂袭击也被指与伊朗有关。
尽管币安63亿美元加密货币失窃案被认定为黑客所为,但该事件表明此类资产极易遭受网络攻击,而伊朗同样具备成熟的网络攻击能力。与此同时,美国国防部正在调查黑客是否入侵了美国军事基地的制冷系统。
兰德智库上周指出,伊朗的敌对活动“遍布全球”,其代理人黎巴嫩真主党在拉丁美洲保持活跃,另有报道称伊朗策划在欧洲针对平民发动袭击。
分析人士指出:“伊朗一心复仇、不受束缚,报复不太可能局限于全球某一角落。”在他们看来,对美国而言,损失最小的方案是继续实施海上封锁,而非发起新一轮打击。
美伊双方仍在通过中间人传递信息、开展外交斡旋,但双方在核心诉求上均未让步,短期内打破僵局的希望渺茫。
鉴于伊朗当局措辞强硬,并威胁实施无限制报复,专家认为伊朗对美策略已出现变化,冲突再度爆发的概率显著上升。
危机组织(Crisis Group)高级伊朗分析师哈米德雷扎·阿齐兹(Hamidreza Azizi)认为,哈梅内伊此番表态是最重要的动向。
他上周六在X平台发文称:“这番表态表明伊朗军事战略正持续演变。自战争爆发以来,伊朗已逐渐摒弃一贯秉持的对等反击与报复原则,转而采取更具进攻性的策略,以让对手付出代价。最新表态似乎表明这一逻辑正朝着更为激进的方向演进。”
阿齐兹还援引另一名伊朗高层官员的表态:如果确认敌方即将发动军事行动,伊朗可能实施先发制人的打击。此外,哈梅内伊坚称,冲突何时结束、以何种方式结束,都将由伊朗决定。
伊朗对进一步外交努力也持警惕态度,尤其是在去年夏天及今年年初的两轮谈判期间,美方仍持续发起袭击。
阿齐兹补充道:“伊朗似乎愈发决心避免重蹈覆辙——谈判或临时停火后,军事冲突再度爆发。在伊朗看来,此举旨在让美方清楚意识到:一旦再次发动袭击,代价极高、后果难以预判,从而迫使美方彻底放弃打击选项。”
与此同时,伊朗军火库中仍储备着数千枚导弹与无人机,足以对波斯湾邻国造成毁灭性打击。
美国拦截弹库存已降至危险低位,而伊朗新型导弹已已展现出规避防空系统的能力。
昆西研究所(Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)董事阿米尔·汉贾尼(Amir Handjani)指出,考虑到该地区能源基础设施在战争初期已遭受重创,恐难承受新一轮战火。
事实上,中东多地的美军基地已遭到伊朗无人机与导弹的严重打击。
“海湾产油国历经五十年,向世界证明其石油供应能够经受住地区战争的考验。然而,持续八个月的双线作战,已严重削弱这一论点。唯有通过谈判终结战争,才能给该地区时间重建信心。”汉贾尼写道。
“在沙特与胡塞武装战事尚未平息的情况下,若地区再爆发一轮冲突,基础设施和进口商信心都将遭受重创,市场要消化这一冲击,恐需整整一代人的时间。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
The clock is ticking toward a new round of fighting in the U.S.-Iran war, but this time the damage could be much more widespread, stretching to new regions and different types of targets.
President Donald Trump has said he’s contemplating “another little Epic Fury” after the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday.
The U.S. has already sent a third aircraft carrier and Marine expeditionary unit to the Middle East, and told allies in the region to prepare for a possible short but intense renewal of fighting, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The Iranian regime similarly stepped up its threats on how it would respond, seeking to deter an attack by threatening disproportionate and no-holds-barred retaliation.
On Saturday, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei warned Iran’s response would be “without any geographical limitations,” adding that the “data bank of targets should be updated so that the armed forces could hit all kinds of financial and non-financial assets.”
In recent weeks, Iran has warned undersea internet cables and data centers would be targets. The foiled attack on a British air base used by U.S. forces has also been attributed to Tehran.
And while North Koreans have been blamed for the $6.3 billion crypto heist at Binance, it shows how vulnerable such assets are to Iran, which is also adept at cyberattacks. At the same time, the Pentagon is investigating whether hackers hit freezers on U.S. military bases.
The RAND think tank pointed out last week that hostile Iranian activity “spans the globe,” with proxy Hezbollah in Latin America and reported plots against civilians in Europe.
“Unbound and bent on revenge, Iran is unlikely to be contained to just one corner of the globe,” analysts wrote, arguing that the least bad option would be for the U.S. to continue its naval blockade and not launch new attacks.
Diplomacy is ongoing with the U.S. and Iran exchanging messages via intermediaries, but neither side has budged from their initial demands, dampening hopes for a breakthrough in the next few days.
Given the hardened rhetoric from the regime with threats of unrestricted retaliation, experts now detect a change in Iran’s tactics against the U.S. and see greater odds of the war returning.
For Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the Crisis Group, the most important development was the message from Khamenei.
“This language suggests a further evolution in Iran’s military strategy,” he posted on X on Saturday. “Since the beginning of the war, Tehran has increasingly moved away from its traditional emphasis on proportionate response and retaliation toward a more offensive approach aimed at imposing costs on adversaries. The latest statements appear to take this logic a step further.”
Azizi also cited remarks from another top official who indicated Iran could stage a preemptive strike if preparations for hostile action were confirmed. In addition, Khamenei insisted Iran would determine when and how any renewed conflict ends.
Iran is also wary of further diplomatic efforts, especially since previous attacks came even in the middle of talks with the U.S. early this year and last summer.
“Iran appears increasingly determined to prevent a repetition of previous scenarios in which negotiations or temporary ceasefires were followed by renewed military conflict,” Azizi added. “From Tehran’s perspective, the objective is to make another attack so costly and unpredictable that Washington would have to reconsider the option altogether.”
Meanwhile, Iran still has thousands of missiles and drones in its arsenal that can inflict catastrophic damage to its neighbors in the Persian Gulf area.
That’s as stockpiles of U.S. interceptors have already been depleted to critically low levels, while newer Iranian missiles has demonstrated the ability to evade air-defense systems.
Considering how much damage the region’s energy infrastructure sustained earlier in the war, it can’t absorb another round of fighting, according to Amir Handjani is a board member at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
Indeed, even U.S. military bases across the Middle East have been heavily damaged by Iranian drones and missiles.
“Gulf producers spent five decades persuading the world that their supply could withstand regional wars. Eight months of fighting on two fronts have badly weakened that case. A negotiated end to the war would give the region time to rebuild it,” Handjani wrote.
“Another round, on top of the Saudi-Houthi war, would leave damage to infrastructure and to importers’ confidence that markets are likely to carry for a generation.”