
华尔街头部银行上周公布的财报喜忧参半:多数机构表现抢眼,但也有两家巨头遭遇罕见滑铁卢。高盛(Goldman Sachs)交出了投资者期待的优秀答卷,而摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和美国银行(Bank of America)的表现则令市场大失所望。
上周二早间,摩根大通率先揭开财报季序幕,并奠定了基调。按资产和市值计算,摩根大通是全美最大的银行,市值约8,881亿美元,但近三年来其首次在利润和营收两项指标上均未达到预期。摩根大通公布的净营收为501.7亿美元,低于分析师预期的512.2亿美元。根据标普全球市场财智(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的数据,其每股收益为5.57美元,也低于预期的5.90美元。
该公司业绩主要受到固定收益交易业务缩水和费用上升的拖累。固定收益交易收入同比下降4%,至54亿美元,比预期低约5.5亿美元。与此同时,摩根大通的非利息支出比预期高出9,000万美元,过去一年相关成本大幅增长了12%。总体来看,公司营收仅增长8%,相较第二季度27%的增幅大幅放缓。
尽管如此,摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙仍在一份声明中表示,该行“又一个季度取得了强劲业绩”。他没有直接回应此次业绩未达预期的问题,但表示投资银行业务活动“在本季度有所回落”。在与记者的电话会上,摩根大通首席财务官杰里米·巴纳姆则形容该行的交易项目储备“非常、非常强劲”。
不过,让投资者失望的并非只有摩根大通一家。
美国银行上周三披露的业绩未达市场预期,也终结了此前连续六个季度超预期的良好势头。第三季度利润下降17%,至69.3亿美元,合每股91美分。营收也比分析师预期低约5.7亿美元。就在前一天,监管机构刚宣布对美国银行处以12亿美元罚款,指控其管理层未能上报数十亿美元的可疑交易。这笔罚款让本就表现平淡的季度业绩雪上加霜。
另一家表现落后的银行是富国银行(Wells Fargo),不过相较于摩根大通和美国银行,这一结果并不那么令人意外。尽管其盈利超过预期,但营收未达标,为218.7亿美元,低于市场一致预期的223.1亿美元。这是富国银行过去四个季度中第三次营收低于预期。
表现亮眼的银行
相比之下,高盛则迎来了业绩大爆发的一个季度。
高盛公布的数据显示,第三季度净营收达到186.8亿美元,创下公司历史第二高单季纪录;每股收益达17.01美元,分别远高于市场预期的167.1亿美元和13.02美元。股票业务成为最大亮点,相关收入大增72%。首席执行官苏德巍称,高盛本季度表现“非常强劲”。
与摩根大通相比,高盛能有如此强劲的季度表现,乍看之下可能有些令人意外。两家银行都是顶级交易撮合者,一直在争夺并购和IPO市场份额。但摩根大通的业务结构比高盛更加多元。因此,尽管高盛的固定收益业务也出现了一些疲软,但凭借规模庞大、增长迅猛的股票交易部门,该行仍成功抵消了这部分压力。
其他表现稳健的银行还包括摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。受强劲的股票交易业务支撑,该行本季度利润与营收双双实现超预期增长。花旗集团(Citigroup)的营收和利润也均超出预期,并创下10年来最佳第三季度营收表现。
宏观经济走向何方?
尽管华尔街各大银行的财报表现不一,但管理层在一点上达成了共识:尽管利率高企、通胀居高不下,美国消费者依然展现出较强韧性。
花旗集团首席执行官简·弗雷泽表示:“消费者仍然是经济增长的主要推动力。”她还补充说:“劳动力市场稳定,企业活动依然活跃。”
富国银行首席执行官查理·沙夫也表达了类似看法。他指出,消费者支出增加,贷款逾期率较低,存款余额持续增长。他对分析师表示:“尽管经济仍存在不确定性,消费者信心也依然喜忧参半,但我们的数据显示,个人客户和企业客户目前均状况良好。”
金融研究公司Sevens Report Research创始人兼总裁汤姆·埃赛也认同这一观点。他对《财富》杂志表示:“总体而言,富国银行电话会议上的定性表述进一步印证了一点:尽管物价高企、战争阴霾笼罩,且围绕消费者的负面因素不断累积,但他们依然在艰难前行,消费支出也始终保持稳定。”
“最大的悬念”
不过,展望未来,美国消费者的这种韧性能否长期延续,目前仍是未知数。
美联储(Federal Reserve)在9月进行了三年来的首次加息。与此同时,通胀仍居高不下,更添压力,部分原因是伊朗战争推高了能源成本。富国银行分析师、美国大型银行研究主管迈克·梅奥对《财富》杂志表示:“利率大幅上升之后会发生什么?这才是最大的悬念。”
一些华尔街分析师则警告称,消费者的状况未必会一直像部分银行首席执行官描述的那样健康。
研究机构CFRA的亚历山大·约库姆承认,这些银行公布的业绩本身相当稳健,管理层的表态也比较乐观。不过他表示,考虑到通胀持续居高不下,以及市场对进一步加息的预期,未来的信贷前景令人担忧。
CFRA股票研究高级副总裁约库姆对《财富》杂志表示:“总体而言,纵观银行业,一旦利率上升,往往就会有环节爆雷。上一个周期,最先爆雷的就是硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank),对吧?后来商业地产也出了问题。所以很难说这一轮问题会从哪里爆发,但我很难相信,当利率大幅上升时,所有银行都能安然无恙。”
他补充说:“对我来说,更值得担心的是未来。”不过约库姆表示,至少这一次,各家银行的资本储备都相当充裕。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
华尔街头部银行上周公布的财报喜忧参半:多数机构表现抢眼,但也有两家巨头遭遇罕见滑铁卢。高盛(Goldman Sachs)交出了投资者期待的优秀答卷,而摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)和美国银行(Bank of America)的表现则令市场大失所望。
上周二早间,摩根大通率先揭开财报季序幕,并奠定了基调。按资产和市值计算,摩根大通是全美最大的银行,市值约8,881亿美元,但近三年来其首次在利润和营收两项指标上均未达到预期。摩根大通公布的净营收为501.7亿美元,低于分析师预期的512.2亿美元。根据标普全球市场财智(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的数据,其每股收益为5.57美元,也低于预期的5.90美元。
该公司业绩主要受到固定收益交易业务缩水和费用上升的拖累。固定收益交易收入同比下降4%,至54亿美元,比预期低约5.5亿美元。与此同时,摩根大通的非利息支出比预期高出9,000万美元,过去一年相关成本大幅增长了12%。总体来看,公司营收仅增长8%,相较第二季度27%的增幅大幅放缓。
尽管如此,摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙仍在一份声明中表示,该行“又一个季度取得了强劲业绩”。他没有直接回应此次业绩未达预期的问题,但表示投资银行业务活动“在本季度有所回落”。在与记者的电话会上,摩根大通首席财务官杰里米·巴纳姆则形容该行的交易项目储备“非常、非常强劲”。
不过,让投资者失望的并非只有摩根大通一家。
美国银行上周三披露的业绩未达市场预期,也终结了此前连续六个季度超预期的良好势头。第三季度利润下降17%,至69.3亿美元,合每股91美分。营收也比分析师预期低约5.7亿美元。就在前一天,监管机构刚宣布对美国银行处以12亿美元罚款,指控其管理层未能上报数十亿美元的可疑交易。这笔罚款让本就表现平淡的季度业绩雪上加霜。
另一家表现落后的银行是富国银行(Wells Fargo),不过相较于摩根大通和美国银行,这一结果并不那么令人意外。尽管其盈利超过预期,但营收未达标,为218.7亿美元,低于市场一致预期的223.1亿美元。这是富国银行过去四个季度中第三次营收低于预期。
表现亮眼的银行
相比之下,高盛则迎来了业绩大爆发的一个季度。
高盛公布的数据显示,第三季度净营收达到186.8亿美元,创下公司历史第二高单季纪录;每股收益达17.01美元,分别远高于市场预期的167.1亿美元和13.02美元。股票业务成为最大亮点,相关收入大增72%。首席执行官苏德巍称,高盛本季度表现“非常强劲”。
与摩根大通相比,高盛能有如此强劲的季度表现,乍看之下可能有些令人意外。两家银行都是顶级交易撮合者,一直在争夺并购和IPO市场份额。但摩根大通的业务结构比高盛更加多元。因此,尽管高盛的固定收益业务也出现了一些疲软,但凭借规模庞大、增长迅猛的股票交易部门,该行仍成功抵消了这部分压力。
其他表现稳健的银行还包括摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)。受强劲的股票交易业务支撑,该行本季度利润与营收双双实现超预期增长。花旗集团(Citigroup)的营收和利润也均超出预期,并创下10年来最佳第三季度营收表现。
宏观经济走向何方?
尽管华尔街各大银行的财报表现不一,但管理层在一点上达成了共识:尽管利率高企、通胀居高不下,美国消费者依然展现出较强韧性。
花旗集团首席执行官简·弗雷泽表示:“消费者仍然是经济增长的主要推动力。”她还补充说:“劳动力市场稳定,企业活动依然活跃。”
富国银行首席执行官查理·沙夫也表达了类似看法。他指出,消费者支出增加,贷款逾期率较低,存款余额持续增长。他对分析师表示:“尽管经济仍存在不确定性,消费者信心也依然喜忧参半,但我们的数据显示,个人客户和企业客户目前均状况良好。”
金融研究公司Sevens Report Research创始人兼总裁汤姆·埃赛也认同这一观点。他对《财富》杂志表示:“总体而言,富国银行电话会议上的定性表述进一步印证了一点:尽管物价高企、战争阴霾笼罩,且围绕消费者的负面因素不断累积,但他们依然在艰难前行,消费支出也始终保持稳定。”
“最大的悬念”
不过,展望未来,美国消费者的这种韧性能否长期延续,目前仍是未知数。
美联储(Federal Reserve)在9月进行了三年来的首次加息。与此同时,通胀仍居高不下,更添压力,部分原因是伊朗战争推高了能源成本。富国银行分析师、美国大型银行研究主管迈克·梅奥对《财富》杂志表示:“利率大幅上升之后会发生什么?这才是最大的悬念。”
一些华尔街分析师则警告称,消费者的状况未必会一直像部分银行首席执行官描述的那样健康。
研究机构CFRA的亚历山大·约库姆承认,这些银行公布的业绩本身相当稳健,管理层的表态也比较乐观。不过他表示,考虑到通胀持续居高不下,以及市场对进一步加息的预期,未来的信贷前景令人担忧。
CFRA股票研究高级副总裁约库姆对《财富》杂志表示:“总体而言,纵观银行业,一旦利率上升,往往就会有环节爆雷。上一个周期,最先爆雷的就是硅谷银行(Silicon Valley Bank),对吧?后来商业地产也出了问题。所以很难说这一轮问题会从哪里爆发,但我很难相信,当利率大幅上升时,所有银行都能安然无恙。”
他补充说:“对我来说,更值得担心的是未来。”不过约库姆表示,至少这一次,各家银行的资本储备都相当充裕。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
For Wall Street banks reporting earnings this week, it was largely a hit—or, for two big names, a stunning miss. Goldman Sachs gave investors exactly what they wanted, while JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America gave them reason to flinch.
JPMorgan set the tone early Tuesday morning. For the first time in nearly three years, the nation’s largest bank by assets and market capitalization—about $888.1 billion—fell short of expectations on both profit and revenue. JPMorgan reported $50.17 billion in net revenue, below the $51.22 billion analysts expected. Earnings per share came in at $5.57 versus $5.90, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The company’s earnings were weighed down by a slump in fixed-income trading and higher expenses. Fixed-income trading revenue fell 4% year over year to $5.4 billion—about $550 million below expectations. JPMorgan’s noninterest expenses were $90 million higher than estimates as costs jumped 12% over the past year. All in, revenue rose by only 8%, a significant decline from the 27% increase in the second quarter.
Still, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement that the bank reported “another quarter of strong results.” He did not directly address the earnings miss, but said investment banking activity “moderate[d] somewhat during the quarter.” On a call with reporters, JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum described the bank’s dealmaking pipeline as “very, very strong.”
JPMorgan was not the only bank to disappoint investors, though.
Bank of America missed earnings expectations on Wednesday, snapping a six-quarter beat streak. Profit fell 17% to $6.93 billion, or 91 cents per share, in the third quarter. Revenue was also below analysts’ estimates by roughly $570 million. The results came just a day after regulators announced a $1.2 billion penalty on Bank of America, alleging that management failed to report billions of dollars in suspicious transactions. The penalty added to the pressure of an already lackluster quarter.
One other laggard—albeit less surprising than JPMorgan or Bank of America—was Wells Fargo. The bank missed on revenue despite surpassing earnings estimates, reporting revenue of $21.87 billion, below the $22.31 billion consensus. It was the third time in the past four quarters that Wells came up short on the top line.
The winners
Then there was Goldman Sachs’ blowout quarter.
On Tuesday, Goldman reported its second-highest quarterly net revenue ever at $18.68 billion and earnings per share of $17.01 for the third quarter, far exceeding expectations of $16.71 billion and $13.02, respectively. The equities business was the star of the show, with revenue surging 72%. CEO David Solomon described the quarter as a “very strong performance” for Goldman.
It might seem surprising that Goldman had such a strong quarter compared with JPMorgan. They are both premier dealmakers that compete for share in M&A and IPOs. But JPMorgan’s business mix is much broader than Goldman’s. So although Goldman saw some weakness in fixed income, the bank was able to offset it because of its enormous—and booming—equities desk.
Other solid performers this week included Morgan Stanley. Overall profit and revenue climbed for the quarter and came in above expectations, supported by strength in equities trading. Citigroup delivered a top- and bottom-line beat, with its best third-quarter revenue in a decade.
What about the economy?
Despite the mixed results on Wall Street, one theme unites the group: Management teams say the U.S. consumer is holding up despite higher rates and persistent inflation.
Citi CEO Jane Fraser said, “The consumer is still driving much of the [economic] growth,” adding that “the labor market is stable, and companies remain active.”
Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf shared a similar sentiment, pointing to an increase in consumer spending, low loan-delinquency rates, and growing deposit balances. “While economic uncertainty exists and consumer sentiment remains mixed, our data shows that our consumer and business customers are doing well,” he told analysts.
Tom Essaye, founder and president of Sevens Report Research, a financial research firm, agreed. “Generally speaking, the qualitative commentary on [Wells’] call has reinforced that despite high prices, despite anxiety about wars, despite all the negative stuff that’s forming around the consumer, they just keep on trucking and are continuing to spend consistently,” he told Fortune.
‘The big question’
Still, looking ahead, it is unclear whether the consumer can remain this resilient for much longer.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September for the first time in three years. And it does not help that inflation remains elevated, driven in part by surging energy costs tied to the Iran war. As Wells Fargo analyst Mike Mayo, head of U.S. large-cap bank research, told Fortune: “What happens as a result of much higher interest rates? That’s the big question.”
Some other Wall Street analysts caution that the state of the consumer might not stay as healthy as some bank CEOs portray it.
CFRA’s Alexander Yokum acknowledged that the bank results themselves were solid and management’s tone was optimistic. But, he said, the outlook for credit—given sticky inflation and expectations of additional rate increases—is a concern.
“Generally speaking, when you look at banking, when rates go up, something often breaks. Last cycle, it started with the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, right? And then there were commercial real estate issues also,” Yokum, a senior vice president of equity research at CFRA, told Fortune. “So it’s hard to say what it will be this cycle, but it’s hard for me to believe that rates can rise significantly and all the banks will be fine.”
He added, “The concern, for me, is more the future.” At least this time, Yokum said, the banks are well capitalized.