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AI或“灭绝人类”?只是精明的营销话术

Michael Serazio
2026-10-19

AI灭绝人类的预言既能制造恐慌,也可以是商业宣传。

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2026年9月29日,华盛顿特区白宫西翼,美国总统特朗普与AI企业高管开会后召开新闻发布会,Anthropic 首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊列席。图片来源:Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

如今,人们对人工智能的焦虑情绪空前高涨。

最新前沿大模型的能力看起来接近人类,却开始失控,在网上表现出危险甚至狡诈的行为。顶尖AI研究人员和企业高管警告称,人工智能可能对“社会与人类带来深远风险”,甚至可能彻底改写“地球生命的历史”。在政府监管缺位、企业“失控般”涌入未知领域的背景下,他们呼吁立即暂停开发更强大的AI系统。

当然,这已是三年半前的事。

或许更关键的是,在最新一轮AI灭绝恐慌之前,已有数千亿美元资本涌入该赛道。

上个月,Anthropic研究员雅各布·考克森的辞职信在网络上疯传,还登上各大媒体头条,他发出的警示与2023年3月由埃隆·马斯克、史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克等人签署的《暂停巨型AI实验》(Pause Giant AI Experiments)公开信如出一辙。考克森告诫人们,不要盲目追逐超级智能,那是在“拿人类的性命赌博”。

“不要低估这项技术的力量,”他在社交平台X上写道,“开发AI的人真诚地相信,本个十年结束前,AI可能毁灭全人类。这绝非营销噱头。”

然而,两者并不互相排斥。风险或许真实存在,OpenAI和Anthropic都在盯着的万亿美元级别上市回报同样真实。AI灭绝人类的预言既能制造恐慌,也可以是商业宣传。

毕竟,史上价值最高的公司理应售卖史上最强的技术。否则海量资本究竟在为什么买单?还有什么比足以导致人类灭绝的技术更强大?

如果AI能毁灭人类文明,处理工作邮件应该也是小事一桩。

公开信发布以来的几年里,人工智能肆意扩张,被赋予诸多定义:“一种理念、一种基础设施、一个产业。”由于本质上是押注未来的巨型豪赌,必须伴随着规模庞大且持续不断的营销。

随着AI经济效益越发不稳定,营销也愈发狂热。该技术成本高得难以想象,商业模式却停留在猜想阶段。一方面支撑着美国经济,另一方面又在疯狂消耗科技公司的现金。

不管是工作还是个人生活,只有人类同意将AI融入思考的方方面面,赌注才能获得回报。想让人类同意,技术必须相当优秀,仅仅做到“不产生幻觉”可远远不够。

必须达到“毁灭人类”的级别。

因此,不管主观上有意还是无意,考克森、达里奥·阿莫代伊以及硅谷其他人的末日式焦虑,也都成了营销的一部分。

作为研究媒体与文化的学者,我认为技术背后的商业叙事与技术本身同样重要。我最近出版的书中着重探讨了“真实性”这一概念,过去20年社交媒体崛起并各处渗透的关键正在于此。

如果YouTube和Instagram无法被塑造成展现真实自我的平台,其母公司绝无可能积累巨额财富。用户产出内容时,平台希望诱导用户展现真实的自我。其他研究也表明,面向千禧一代的营销策略,本质是是将这代人概念化为渴望在网上公开自己生活的群体。

简而言之,想要推销技术尤其是AI这样不受欢迎的技术,必须能让技术在人们的生活中具备真实感。

如今,电视广告正承担类似意识形态塑造工作。巨额资金投入30秒广告,宣布AI组织读书俱乐部、给孩子写粉丝来信,甚至撰写悼词。因为人工智能定义就是“人工的”,也就是“假的”,所以为了各种用途,就必须被包装成让人能接受的“真实”工具。

研究近年来播出的七十多则此类广告后,我发现了几大主题:创业赋能、效率崇拜、身体增强以及社交陪伴。

最具代表性(也最自大)的叙事是将AI营销为大势所趋,只有冥顽不化的卢德分子(指19世纪初英国工业革命时期,因机器取代手工劳动而失业、组织起来捣毁纺织机器的技术工人——译者注)才会愚蠢地抗拒不可避免之事。

举个例子,OpenAI的超级碗广告中快速闪过人类历史上各项发明的像素画面,把AI与长矛、火、铁路、飞行器、DNA和太空探索并列,刻意绕过了原子弹。“所有进步,都有起点,”广告最后总结道。

Anthropic的考克森在辞职信中也有类似表述:“我们都见证过各领域的进步,而且进步不会停下脚步。”

这就是硅谷信奉的基本信念,相信技术浪潮不可阻挡。

否则就很难解释,来自“房子内部”,如同恐怖片剧情一般的AI危机警告几乎注定不会改变任何事。三年前上千位知识界精英和商业巨头联名呼吁加强管控,最后什么也未能阻止。

对巨头们而言,即便造出可毁灭人类的技术,巨额收益无疑就是补偿,哪怕只是金钱上而非道德层面。如果正在投资此类工具,也在押注其蕴含的力量,所谓风险恰恰还能促成交易。

但这并非唯一的话术层面收益。

HAL 9000或天网(HAL 9000是电影《2001太空漫游》中的超级人工智能电脑,天网是电影《终结者》系列中的人工智能防御系统——译者注)实施的灭绝都是颇具戏剧色彩的科幻式想象,掩盖了AI在电力、水资源和其他领域实际且更缓慢的环境破坏。娱乐化想象也转移了公众视线,让人忽视教育领域(同样缓慢发生的)认知损耗,即学生们正按照AI的要求,将思考习惯和思维能力外包。

讽刺的是,AI一面用能做更多事诱惑人类,一面让人类能力不断退化。任何外包行为都会导致这种去技能化效应。如果接受AI代为思考、表达和感受的合成产物,人类将放弃比自动化时代曾夺走的更根本的人性内核。

当前时代缺乏监管自由放任,科技公司为所欲为,因为“能做到”是唯一重要的政策准则,只能依靠社会规范抵御人类被替代的趋势。广告和公关百年来一直为诸多产品塑造社会共识,如今正努力改写大众对AI的认知。

有时努力会成功,有时则不然。马克·扎克伯格的元宇宙项目无人问津,估计损失高达800亿美元。

如果AI最终结局确实是在赌10%的毁灭概率,美国怎会甘愿中国抢先实现?尽管 Anthropic表面上因AI危险呼吁设置护栏,国家安全层面的焦虑仍会压倒审慎态度,正是因为AI强大的潜在力量。

事实证明,“不管由谁研发,人类都会灭亡”这句话本身也成了精明的营销话术,推动人们实践口头上警示要提防的事。

数十年来,关于AI的论述存在周期性规律。“春天”行业充斥着炒作和投资,“冬天”热度和资金双双撤退。从电力、电报到电话和广播,历史上多项技术都曾被称颂崇高、神奇、革命性,同时令人恐惧。

并不是说这次没什么不同。毕竟,AI技术或许真的足够先进,能让身处一线的技术天才心生畏惧。

但类似故事我们早已听过。而能把故事讲得令人信服的人,仍能收获难以计数的财富。

迈克尔·塞拉齐奥是波士顿学院传播系教授兼系主任。

Fortune.com上评论文章中表达的观点仅代表作者个人观点,并不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

如今,人们对人工智能的焦虑情绪空前高涨。

最新前沿大模型的能力看起来接近人类,却开始失控,在网上表现出危险甚至狡诈的行为。顶尖AI研究人员和企业高管警告称,人工智能可能对“社会与人类带来深远风险”,甚至可能彻底改写“地球生命的历史”。在政府监管缺位、企业“失控般”涌入未知领域的背景下,他们呼吁立即暂停开发更强大的AI系统。

当然,这已是三年半前的事。

或许更关键的是,在最新一轮AI灭绝恐慌之前,已有数千亿美元资本涌入该赛道。

上个月,Anthropic研究员雅各布·考克森的辞职信在网络上疯传,还登上各大媒体头条,他发出的警示与2023年3月由埃隆·马斯克、史蒂夫·沃兹尼亚克等人签署的《暂停巨型AI实验》(Pause Giant AI Experiments)公开信如出一辙。考克森告诫人们,不要盲目追逐超级智能,那是在“拿人类的性命赌博”。

“不要低估这项技术的力量,”他在社交平台X上写道,“开发AI的人真诚地相信,本个十年结束前,AI可能毁灭全人类。这绝非营销噱头。”

然而,两者并不互相排斥。风险或许真实存在,OpenAI和Anthropic都在盯着的万亿美元级别上市回报同样真实。AI灭绝人类的预言既能制造恐慌,也可以是商业宣传。

毕竟,史上价值最高的公司理应售卖史上最强的技术。否则海量资本究竟在为什么买单?还有什么比足以导致人类灭绝的技术更强大?

如果AI能毁灭人类文明,处理工作邮件应该也是小事一桩。

公开信发布以来的几年里,人工智能肆意扩张,被赋予诸多定义:“一种理念、一种基础设施、一个产业。”由于本质上是押注未来的巨型豪赌,必须伴随着规模庞大且持续不断的营销。

随着AI经济效益越发不稳定,营销也愈发狂热。该技术成本高得难以想象,商业模式却停留在猜想阶段。一方面支撑着美国经济,另一方面又在疯狂消耗科技公司的现金。

不管是工作还是个人生活,只有人类同意将AI融入思考的方方面面,赌注才能获得回报。想让人类同意,技术必须相当优秀,仅仅做到“不产生幻觉”可远远不够。

必须达到“毁灭人类”的级别。

因此,不管主观上有意还是无意,考克森、达里奥·阿莫代伊以及硅谷其他人的末日式焦虑,也都成了营销的一部分。

作为研究媒体与文化的学者,我认为技术背后的商业叙事与技术本身同样重要。我最近出版的书中着重探讨了“真实性”这一概念,过去20年社交媒体崛起并各处渗透的关键正在于此。

如果YouTube和Instagram无法被塑造成展现真实自我的平台,其母公司绝无可能积累巨额财富。用户产出内容时,平台希望诱导用户展现真实的自我。其他研究也表明,面向千禧一代的营销策略,本质是是将这代人概念化为渴望在网上公开自己生活的群体。

简而言之,想要推销技术尤其是AI这样不受欢迎的技术,必须能让技术在人们的生活中具备真实感。

如今,电视广告正承担类似意识形态塑造工作。巨额资金投入30秒广告,宣布AI组织读书俱乐部、给孩子写粉丝来信,甚至撰写悼词。因为人工智能定义就是“人工的”,也就是“假的”,所以为了各种用途,就必须被包装成让人能接受的“真实”工具。

研究近年来播出的七十多则此类广告后,我发现了几大主题:创业赋能、效率崇拜、身体增强以及社交陪伴。

最具代表性(也最自大)的叙事是将AI营销为大势所趋,只有冥顽不化的卢德分子(指19世纪初英国工业革命时期,因机器取代手工劳动而失业、组织起来捣毁纺织机器的技术工人——译者注)才会愚蠢地抗拒不可避免之事。

举个例子,OpenAI的超级碗广告中快速闪过人类历史上各项发明的像素画面,把AI与长矛、火、铁路、飞行器、DNA和太空探索并列,刻意绕过了原子弹。“所有进步,都有起点,”广告最后总结道。

Anthropic的考克森在辞职信中也有类似表述:“我们都见证过各领域的进步,而且进步不会停下脚步。”

这就是硅谷信奉的基本信念,相信技术浪潮不可阻挡。

否则就很难解释,来自“房子内部”,如同恐怖片剧情一般的AI危机警告几乎注定不会改变任何事。三年前上千位知识界精英和商业巨头联名呼吁加强管控,最后什么也未能阻止。

对巨头们而言,即便造出可毁灭人类的技术,巨额收益无疑就是补偿,哪怕只是金钱上而非道德层面。如果正在投资此类工具,也在押注其蕴含的力量,所谓风险恰恰还能促成交易。

但这并非唯一的话术层面收益。

HAL 9000或天网(HAL 9000是电影《2001太空漫游》中的超级人工智能电脑,天网是电影《终结者》系列中的人工智能防御系统——译者注)实施的灭绝都是颇具戏剧色彩的科幻式想象,掩盖了AI在电力、水资源和其他领域实际且更缓慢的环境破坏。娱乐化想象也转移了公众视线,让人忽视教育领域(同样缓慢发生的)认知损耗,即学生们正按照AI的要求,将思考习惯和思维能力外包。

讽刺的是,AI一面用能做更多事诱惑人类,一面让人类能力不断退化。任何外包行为都会导致这种去技能化效应。如果接受AI代为思考、表达和感受的合成产物,人类将放弃比自动化时代曾夺走的更根本的人性内核。

当前时代缺乏监管自由放任,科技公司为所欲为,因为“能做到”是唯一重要的政策准则,只能依靠社会规范抵御人类被替代的趋势。广告和公关百年来一直为诸多产品塑造社会共识,如今正努力改写大众对AI的认知。

有时努力会成功,有时则不然。马克·扎克伯格的元宇宙项目无人问津,估计损失高达800亿美元。

如果AI最终结局确实是在赌10%的毁灭概率,美国怎会甘愿中国抢先实现?尽管 Anthropic表面上因AI危险呼吁设置护栏,国家安全层面的焦虑仍会压倒审慎态度,正是因为AI强大的潜在力量。

事实证明,“不管由谁研发,人类都会灭亡”这句话本身也成了精明的营销话术,推动人们实践口头上警示要提防的事。

数十年来,关于AI的论述存在周期性规律。“春天”行业充斥着炒作和投资,“冬天”热度和资金双双撤退。从电力、电报到电话和广播,历史上多项技术都曾被称颂崇高、神奇、革命性,同时令人恐惧。

并不是说这次没什么不同。毕竟,AI技术或许真的足够先进,能让身处一线的技术天才心生畏惧。

但类似故事我们早已听过。而能把故事讲得令人信服的人,仍能收获难以计数的财富。

迈克尔·塞拉齐奥是波士顿学院传播系教授兼系主任。

Fortune.com上评论文章中表达的观点仅代表作者个人观点,并不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。(财富中文网)

译者:梁宇

审校:夏林

At the time, artificial intelligence anxieties were running high.

The latest frontier model, with apparent human-level faculties, had gone rogue – displaying dangerous, even devious online behaviors. Leading AI researchers and executives warned of the “profound risks to society and humanity” that could radically alter “the history of life on Earth.” Absent any government regulation and amidst an “out-of-control” corporate rush into the unknown, they called for an immediate moratorium on developing more powerful AI systems.

This was, of course, three-and-half years ago.

Perhaps more relevant, these concerns arrived hundreds of billions of investment dollars prior to the latest AI-extinction panic.

Last month, Jacob Coxon, the Anthropic researcher whose resignation post went viral and made headlines, issued pleas not unlike those of the “Pause Giant AI Experiments” open letter signed by Elon Musk, Steve Wozniak, and others in March 2023. Coxon admonished the wild-eyed pursuit of superintelligence that’s “gambling with our lives.”

“Do not underestimate the power of this technology,” he wrote on X. “The people building AI earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade. This is not a marketing stunt.”

And, yet, the two are not mutually exclusive: The risks can be real, as can the rewards that come with a trillion-dollar I.P.O., which both OpenAI and Anthropic are eyeing. It can be both alarmist and advertising.

After all, the most valuable companies in history surely need to be selling the most powerful technologies in history. What else would all that capital be paying for? And what could be more powerful than an extinction-level technology?

If AI can wipe out civilization, it can surely handle some work emails on your behalf.

As it’s spread relentlessly in the years since that open letter, artificial intelligence has been called many things: “an idea, an infrastructure, an industry.” But because it’s a giant market wager on life in the future, it must also be a massive, ongoing sales pitch.

That sales pitch has only grown more frenzied as the economics of AI have gotten more precarious. It is an unfathomably expensive technology, with an (as-yet) speculative business model, simultaneously propping up the U.S. economy and also torchingtech company cash by the bushel.

Those bets only pay out if we, as humans, agree to adopt AI into every aspect of our thinking lives, both professionally and personally. And we’ll only agree to that if the technology is good enough – and not just “doesn’t hallucinate” good enough.

Like, “kill us all” good enough.

Hence, the doomsday handwringing of Coxon, Dario Amodei, and others in Silicon Valley is part of that sell, intentional or not.

As a professor who studies media and culture, the commercial narratives around our technologies are as consequential as the technologies themselves. In my most recent book, I focused on the notion of “authenticity” as pivotal to social media’s ascendence and ubiquity over the past two decades.

YouTube and Instagram would never have amassed fortunes for their parent companies if they couldn’t be framed as platforms of genuine self-performance: As we produced content for them, they hoped to induce authenticity from us. Similarly, other research showed how marketing to the millennial generation meant conceptualizing that cohort as being eager to divulge their lives online.

In short, you can’t sell a technology – and, in particular, a deeply unpopular one like AI – unless you authenticate it into people’s lives.

Of late, the ads on TV are doing that ideological work. Mountains of money are being plowed into 30-spots that tell us to let AI organize our book clubs, write our children’s fan letters, and handle our eulogies. Because artificial intelligence is, by definition, artificial (i.e., “fake”), it must be sold as acceptably “authentic” for all those purposes.

Studying more than seventy such commercials that have aired in recent years, I found themes of entrepreneurialempowerment and efficiencyfetish; bodily enhancement and social companion.

Most emblematic (and presumptuous), though, is messaging that sells AI as inevitable, because only a stick-in-the-mud Luddite would foolishly inveigh against inevitability.

Hence, to take one example, OpenAI’s Super Bowl spot, which shuffles through pixelated representations of inventions throughout human history and places AI explicitly in lineage with the spear, fire, railroad, flight, DNA, and space travel – though not (apparently!) the atom bomb. “All progress has a starting point,” the ad concludes.

Anthropic’s Coxon wrote something similar in his resignation, “We have all witnessed the progress in each of these domains, and progress is not slowing.”

That’s the fundamental faith one must abide in Silicon Valley: a belief in the inexorability of the project.

How else to explain the fact that these latest calls of AI danger and panic – calls coming from “inside the house,” in the horror film sense – will almost surely stop nothing? After all, they stopped nothing three years ago when 1,000 intellectual luminaries and corporate oligarchs put their name to paper demanding much the same.

For those oligarchs, the money to be made must surely be the compensation – financial, if not moral – for making the thing that could kill us all. And that alleged risk, again, helps seal the deal, if you’re investing in (and therefore betting on) the power of such tools.

But that’s not the only rhetorical benefit.

Extinction by way of HAL 9000 or Skynet – a dramatic, cinematic evocation – obscures the actual, slower-moving environmental devastation of AI when it comes to electricity, water, and other resources. It also misdirects our attention from the (equally slow-moving) cognitive devastation that’s happening in education as students outsource habits and muscles of thought, as AI asks of them.

Ironically, as AI tantalizes with the prospect of doing more, it will also leave us able to do less: a deskilling inherent to any act of outsourcing. If we accept the synthetic product generated – where AI thinks, expresses, and feels on our behalf – we’ll have abandoned something more fundamentally hu man than automation ever took from us before.

For now – in an era of unregulated free-for-all where tech companies do what they want, because “can” is the only policy verb that matters – normsare all that we have to guard against that substitution. Advertising and public relations are attempting to shape those norms, as they have for more than a century on many a product before.

Sometimes that effort is successful; other times, Mark Zuckerberg has to write off an estimated $80 billion loss on a Metaverse party that no one wanted to show up for.

And if the AI endgame, indeed, rolls the dice on a 10% chance of annihilation, well, the United States can’t let China get there first, can we? Even as Anthropic ostensibly pleads for guardrails because of AI’s peril, national security anxieties will override any caution – becauseof that same potential power.

Turns out that “if anyone builds it, everyone dies” also functions as a savvy sales pitch necessitating precisely the action that’s cautioned against.

Over the decades, there is a literal seasonality to AI discourse: “springs” are those years full of hype and investment; “winters,” by contrast, when momentum and money withdraw. Likewise, many a technology before – from electricity and the telegraph to phone and radio – have been heralded as sublime, magical, revolutionary, and terrifying.

That’s not to say this time isn’t different – that this technology is, finally, sufficiently advanced to truly spook the technical geniuses close to the problem.

But we have heard the story before. And there’s still untold riches that await those who tell it convincingly.

Michael Serazio is Professor and Chair at the Boston College Department of Communication.

The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.

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