
2026年的经济环境催生出一批新晋“日入百万美元”企业,它们能在24小时甚或更短时间内斩获七位数收入。据一家咨询机构统计,前沿人工智能实验室Anthropic亦在这一行列,仅凭单一客户使用Claude模型产生的月营收就突破5亿美元,折合每日将近1700万美元。
除人工智能产业热潮外,伊朗战争还催生了一批新晋的“日入百万”赢家——那些敢于穿越霍尔木兹海峡进行“奥德赛式”航行的油轮运营商。
波罗的海交易所上周数据显示,从波斯湾向中国输送原油的航线需经这一咽喉要道,该航线油轮日租金达到103.5万美元,首次突破百万美元大关。相比之下,根据普氏超大型油轮指数,此前同类大型原油运输船从波斯湾外运原油的日均租金约为20.8万美元。
伊朗战争进入第七个月,霍尔木兹海峡的商业通航量持续下滑,但海湾地区原油出口需求依然迫切。受供给端收紧影响,国际油价再度突破每桶100美元关口。
Vortexa首席货运分析师约安尼斯·帕帕迪米特里乌(Ioannis Papadimitriou)在接受《财富》杂志采访时指出,运费高企主要归因于两方面因素:一是穿越霍尔木兹海峡所承担的风险,二是全球原油需求持续走强。
“一切根源都在于风险。”他说。
是什么推高了海运运费?
根据英国海军机构消息,随着该地区袭击事件升级,商船持续成为攻击目标,上周五就有两艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡遭到炮弹袭击。
帕帕迪米特里乌表示:“诱因之一是地缘政治风险,以及船舶资产本身面临的风险不断上升。美国发动的报复性袭击、伊朗针对过往船只的袭击,进一步加剧上述风险。”
霍尔木兹海峡东侧冲突高发区域的货轮通航量持续缩减,航行风险也推高了船舶保险费率。帕帕迪米特里乌介绍,保险费率从战前的0.5%–1%飙升至货值的约10%,相关保费成本最终将由租船方承担。
需求上涨亦在推动市场整合,海运市场参与主体持续减少,处于增长阶段的企业得以提价。
“这些航运企业,尤其是中东地区的船东,正在扩充船队、购置更多船舶,”帕帕迪米特里乌表示,“为什么?因为他们希望保障货物交付,拓展供应链布局。”
谁是赢家,谁是输家?
运费上涨带来的成本压力主要由炼油厂承担。炼油厂不仅要承担高昂运费——若油轮选择绕行避开霍尔木兹海峡,原油到货周期还会拉长——还需应对原油采购成本上涨。炼油厂利润空间遭到挤压,进一步推高消费者最终成本。柴油价格首次突破每加仑6美元,较伊朗战争爆发前上涨60%。
然而,运费上涨对航运企业而言是重大利好。凭借船舶与运输服务收取的高额风险溢价,航运业已成为当前伊朗战争的最大赢家。
克拉克森(Clarksons)等船舶经纪公司已暗示海运行业巨大的利润空间。这家全球最大船舶经纪公司上季度营收创历史新高,营业利润同比增长55%。公司首席执行官安迪·凯斯(Andi Case)将增长归因于伊朗战争带来的航运需求上升。船舶经纪公司是船东与货主之间的第三方中介。
同样,晨星(Morningstar)数据显示,石油运输基金邮轮期货指数Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF(BWET)今年以来涨幅已超3600%,足以体现投资者对当前航运企业盈利能力的信心。
帕帕迪米特里乌表示:每当地缘政治局势动荡加剧、贸易效率下降时,航运企业往往能从中获利,这次也不例外。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
2026年的经济环境催生出一批新晋“日入百万美元”企业,它们能在24小时甚或更短时间内斩获七位数收入。据一家咨询机构统计,前沿人工智能实验室Anthropic亦在这一行列,仅凭单一客户使用Claude模型产生的月营收就突破5亿美元,折合每日将近1700万美元。
除人工智能产业热潮外,伊朗战争还催生了一批新晋的“日入百万”赢家——那些敢于穿越霍尔木兹海峡进行“奥德赛式”航行的油轮运营商。
波罗的海交易所上周数据显示,从波斯湾向中国输送原油的航线需经这一咽喉要道,该航线油轮日租金达到103.5万美元,首次突破百万美元大关。相比之下,根据普氏超大型油轮指数,此前同类大型原油运输船从波斯湾外运原油的日均租金约为20.8万美元。
伊朗战争进入第七个月,霍尔木兹海峡的商业通航量持续下滑,但海湾地区原油出口需求依然迫切。受供给端收紧影响,国际油价再度突破每桶100美元关口。
Vortexa首席货运分析师约安尼斯·帕帕迪米特里乌(Ioannis Papadimitriou)在接受《财富》杂志采访时指出,运费高企主要归因于两方面因素:一是穿越霍尔木兹海峡所承担的风险,二是全球原油需求持续走强。
“一切根源都在于风险。”他说。
是什么推高了海运运费?
根据英国海军机构消息,随着该地区袭击事件升级,商船持续成为攻击目标,上周五就有两艘油轮在霍尔木兹海峡遭到炮弹袭击。
帕帕迪米特里乌表示:“诱因之一是地缘政治风险,以及船舶资产本身面临的风险不断上升。美国发动的报复性袭击、伊朗针对过往船只的袭击,进一步加剧上述风险。”
霍尔木兹海峡东侧冲突高发区域的货轮通航量持续缩减,航行风险也推高了船舶保险费率。帕帕迪米特里乌介绍,保险费率从战前的0.5%–1%飙升至货值的约10%,相关保费成本最终将由租船方承担。
需求上涨亦在推动市场整合,海运市场参与主体持续减少,处于增长阶段的企业得以提价。
“这些航运企业,尤其是中东地区的船东,正在扩充船队、购置更多船舶,”帕帕迪米特里乌表示,“为什么?因为他们希望保障货物交付,拓展供应链布局。”
谁是赢家,谁是输家?
运费上涨带来的成本压力主要由炼油厂承担。炼油厂不仅要承担高昂运费——若油轮选择绕行避开霍尔木兹海峡,原油到货周期还会拉长——还需应对原油采购成本上涨。炼油厂利润空间遭到挤压,进一步推高消费者最终成本。柴油价格首次突破每加仑6美元,较伊朗战争爆发前上涨60%。
然而,运费上涨对航运企业而言是重大利好。凭借船舶与运输服务收取的高额风险溢价,航运业已成为当前伊朗战争的最大赢家。
克拉克森(Clarksons)等船舶经纪公司已暗示海运行业巨大的利润空间。这家全球最大船舶经纪公司上季度营收创历史新高,营业利润同比增长55%。公司首席执行官安迪·凯斯(Andi Case)将增长归因于伊朗战争带来的航运需求上升。船舶经纪公司是船东与货主之间的第三方中介。
同样,晨星(Morningstar)数据显示,石油运输基金邮轮期货指数Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF(BWET)今年以来涨幅已超3600%,足以体现投资者对当前航运企业盈利能力的信心。
帕帕迪米特里乌表示:每当地缘政治局势动荡加剧、贸易效率下降时,航运企业往往能从中获利,这次也不例外。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
The 2026 economy has created a new throng of one-day millionaires, businesses raking in seven-figure sums in 24 hours or less. That includes teams at AI frontier labs like Anthropic, who are seeing monthly revenue top $500 million from just a single client’s Claude spending, one consultancy reported. That’s nearly $17 million per day.
Outside of the AI boom, there’s a new stock of near-instant daily millionaires as a result of the Iran war: oil tankers willing to odyssey across the Strait of Hormuz.
The cost for a vessel to haul oil from the Persian Gulf to China, which requires crossing the key chokepoint, reached $1.035 million per day, according to data from the Baltic Exchange this week, the first time the price tag has exceeded seven figures. By comparison, a similar large crude carrier transiting from the Persian Gulf cost about $208,000 per day, per the Platts VLCC index.
Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to dwindle in the Iran war’s seventh month, but the need to export oil from the Gulf is still more urgent as constrained supply drives up costs above $100 per barrel once again.
Ioannis Papadimitriou, principal freight analyst at Vortexa, told Fortune the exorbitant shipping costs are a byproduct of both the dangers associated with crossing the chokepoint—and the increased necessity for the commodity those ships carry.
“It’s all about risk,” he said.
What’s driving up cargo shipping costs?
As attacks in the region escalate, commercial ships have remained the target of strikes, including two tankers that were hit by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, according to a UK navy agency.
“One of the drivers is the geopolitical risk and the risk of the assets—which is the ship in this case—which is increasing because of the tit-for-tat attacks that we saw from the U.S. and the territory attacks from Iran on ships,” Papadimitriou said.
Beyond fewer freighters being interested in crossing the channel’s east side where there are the most disruptions, the danger associated with the passage means insurance premiums for vessels have also increased, amounting to about 10% of the assets aboard, according to Papadimitriou, up from 0.5% to 1% prior to the war. Those premiums are then passed down for the charterers to pay.
This increased demand has also encouraged some market consolidation, limiting the number of players in the maritime shipping market and allowing the growing firms to hike up prices.
“These players, especially around the Middle East, they are building out their fleets. They’re buying more vessels,”Papadimitriou said, “Why? Because they want to ensure deliveries of their cargos. They want to expand into the supply chain.”
Who are the winners and losers?
These increased shipping costs will come at the expense of refineries in particular, which not only must contend with increased shipping costs—or the increased time to receive shipments if tankers are taking alternative routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz—but also increased crude costs. As a result, shrinking margins drive up costs for consumers, as already seen in diesel prices topping $6 for the first time, 60% higher than before the Iran war.
But the increased freight costs are a boon to the shipping companies able to charge these premiums for their vessels and transportation services, making the industry the biggest winners of the Iran war so far.
Shipbrokers such as Clarksons have already hinted at how much money is in it for the maritime industry. The world’s largest shipbroker notched record earnings last quarter, including a 55% year-over-year operating profit, which CEO Andi Case attributed to increased demand from the Iran war. Shipbrokers act as third-party liaisons between shipowners and cargo-holders.
Similarly, the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET), an oil freight fund, is up more than 3,600% year to date, Morningstar data shows, an indication of just how confident investors are in the profitability of shipping companies at this time.
“Every time there’s more geopolitical instability that creates trading inefficiencies, it’s the shipping players that actually benefit,” Papadimitriou said. “And this time is no different.”