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AI与客服呼叫中心的关系,或许出乎你的意料

Andrew Nusca
2026-09-02

越来越多企业开始引入智能体AI,试图用它取代人工或提高员工效率。

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2024年4月24日,菲律宾马尼拉大都会塔吉格市的客服人员。图片来源:Lisa Marie David/Bloomberg—Getty Images

越来越多企业开始引入智能体AI,试图用它取代人工或提高员工效率。但一位顶尖经济学家指出,客服岗位——尤其是海外客服岗位——的数量仍在持续增长。

阿波罗(Apollo)首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克近期在一篇博客文章中指出,从2016年至2025年,菲律宾呼叫中心的从业人数逐年上升,十年间,这一数字几乎翻了一番,达到200万人。

他还发现,从2021年至2026年7月,菲律宾的失业率从9%降至约5%,印度则从约7%降至6%,这表明AI并未取代海外外包岗位。

斯洛克上周写道:“如果AI正在大规模取代白领工作,那么最先受到冲击的应当是菲律宾和印度,因为业务流程外包(包括呼叫中心、IT支持、后台业务处理等)在这两个国家的就业中占很大比重。但实际情况却是,两国的失业率仍在持续走低。”

作为削减成本的一种手段,海外呼叫中心在20世纪90年代末至21世纪初迎来爆发式增长。海外劳动力成本远低于美国。大约15年前,菲律宾取代印度,成为全球呼叫中心从业人员最多的国家。

然而,这些岗位同样也是最容易被AI取代的岗位之一。据布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)估计,客服代表的工作任务中,86%具有较高的自动化潜力。

斯洛克认为,一方面,客服岗位极易被自动化;另一方面,相关就业人数却不降反增。这种看似矛盾的现象,恰恰印证了一个延续数百年的经济学悖论,并在更广泛的劳动力市场中有所体现。

他写道:“这正是杰文斯悖论在发挥作用。随着AI让呼叫中心的服务成本降低、效率提升,企业对这类服务的需求反而增加,而非减少。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

越来越多企业开始引入智能体AI,试图用它取代人工或提高员工效率。但一位顶尖经济学家指出,客服岗位——尤其是海外客服岗位——的数量仍在持续增长。

阿波罗(Apollo)首席经济学家托尔斯滕·斯洛克近期在一篇博客文章中指出,从2016年至2025年,菲律宾呼叫中心的从业人数逐年上升,十年间,这一数字几乎翻了一番,达到200万人。

他还发现,从2021年至2026年7月,菲律宾的失业率从9%降至约5%,印度则从约7%降至6%,这表明AI并未取代海外外包岗位。

斯洛克上周写道:“如果AI正在大规模取代白领工作,那么最先受到冲击的应当是菲律宾和印度,因为业务流程外包(包括呼叫中心、IT支持、后台业务处理等)在这两个国家的就业中占很大比重。但实际情况却是,两国的失业率仍在持续走低。”

作为削减成本的一种手段,海外呼叫中心在20世纪90年代末至21世纪初迎来爆发式增长。海外劳动力成本远低于美国。大约15年前,菲律宾取代印度,成为全球呼叫中心从业人员最多的国家。

然而,这些岗位同样也是最容易被AI取代的岗位之一。据布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)估计,客服代表的工作任务中,86%具有较高的自动化潜力。

斯洛克认为,一方面,客服岗位极易被自动化;另一方面,相关就业人数却不降反增。这种看似矛盾的现象,恰恰印证了一个延续数百年的经济学悖论,并在更广泛的劳动力市场中有所体现。

他写道:“这正是杰文斯悖论在发挥作用。随着AI让呼叫中心的服务成本降低、效率提升,企业对这类服务的需求反而增加,而非减少。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

As more companies adopt agentic AI in hopes of replacing or making human workers more efficient, one top economist has noted customer service roles—particularly those overseas—are only growing.

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok noted in a recent blog post that from 2016 through 2025, call center employment in the Philippines has risen each year, nearly doubling to 2 million over the 10-year span.

He also found from 2021 to July 2026, unemployment rates in the Philippines have decreased from 9% to about 5%, and in India decreased from around 7% to 6%, suggesting AI has not displaced offshore workers.

“If AI were displacing white-collar work at scale, you would expect to see it first in the Philippines and India, where business process outsourcing (call centers, IT support, back-office processing) accounts for a large share of employment,” Slok wrote last week. “Instead, the unemployment rate in both countries has continued to trend lower.”

Offshore call center jobs began booming in the late 1990s and early 2000s as a cost-cutting measure. The labor is considerably cheaper overseas than in the U.S. The Philippines dethroned India as the largest call center employer about 15 years ago.

But these jobs are also among the most susceptible to AI displacement. The Brookings Institution estimated 86% of customer service representative tasks had high automation potential.

The apparent contradiction of the job’s potential to be automated alongside rising employment points to a centuries-old economic paradox reflected across labor more broadly, according to Slok.

“This is Jevons paradox in action,” he wrote. “As AI makes call center work cheaper and faster, companies are buying more of it, not less.” —Sasha Rogelberg

Flock becomes a bipartisan target

Last Wednesday, blue-leaning Tempe, Ariz. turned off its Flock automated license plate readers and said the city would not seek another company to replace the system, citing “risk of misuse.”

Three hours later, the nearby red-leaning town of Cave Creek did the same.

The same day in Washington, D.C., Senator Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, opened a formal investigation into the company, while independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders posted a lengthy statement pledging to introduce legislation against it.

The lawmakers sit at opposite ends of the Senate’s ideological spectrum, but Flock’s rapid expansion, and the scrutiny now following it, has captured their attention.

In his letter, Hawley wrote that Flock has built an “unprecedented national surveillance network” of more than 120,000 cameras across 49 states, scanning more than 20 billion vehicles a month, and that “Congress never authorized the network your industry has built.”

By its own account, Flock’s cameras have helped close roughly a million police investigations and locate about 10,000 missing people over the past year.

But an August Washington Post investigation found more than 50 law enforcement officers had been accused, charged with, or convicted of misusing automated license plate readers, including cases where officers used the systems to track former partners.

As of Wednesday, the anti-surveillance group DeFlock says more than 90 cities have moved to cancel or reject Flock contracts.

The company has since reduced its default data retention window from 30 days to seven and now requires officers to enter a case code before accessing stored data. But Flock CEO Garrett Langley told Fox News the country needs “compromise” between privacy and safety concerns.

Whether that arrives before more policymakers take action remains to be seen.—Catherina Gioino

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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