
在以记者身份报道美国大众休闲业态消亡之前,我曾试图通过参政来挽救它。2021年,我在家乡纽约皇后区阿斯托里亚选区竞选纽约市议员,竞选口号为“公共空间,服务公共福祉”,核心承诺是将被私家车占道的人行道、广场与街道收回,交还当地居民。我希望划定更多步行街、增设公共长椅,打造可供邻里落座闲谈的休憩角落。虽然竞选落败,但自此之后,只要城市拆除民众曾经聚集的场所,我都会格外留意,而近来,这类空间消亡仿佛在全美各地同步上演。
美国劳工统计局的数据印证了这种感受。《季度就业与工资普查》可追溯至1990年,按行业细化至县级维度统计经营主体数量。数据显示,自2001年以来,美国影院数量锐减五分之一,保龄球馆关停近三分之一。
2025年一项题为《基础服务与便民设施分配失衡:2010至2021年美国“第三空间”可及性的地域差异》的研究表明,酒吧、保龄球馆的衰败并非个例。研究人员依托人口普查数据,追踪了社会学家定义的12类“第三空间”,涵盖咖啡店、图书馆、博物馆、休闲活动中心、餐馆等场所。结果显示,2019至2021年,所有场所均出现大范围关停,乡村地区、非裔与拉丁裔聚居区、教育水平较低人口集中社区受冲击最为严重。
不仅休闲场所不断消失,现存场所的消费门槛也较往日大幅走高。科罗拉多大学博尔德分校(University of Colorado Boulder)地理学助理教授、该研究的研究者之一杰西卡·芬莱(Jessica Finlay)在被问及这一现象多大程度上由消费承受能力下滑造成时直言:“毫无疑问。方方面面的开支都在上涨。生活成本水涨船高,绅士化改造(中产化)持续推进。”她观察到,持续上涨的成本,正不断压缩能固定到店消费的人群规模。
部分门店倒闭,单纯是实体门店经营压力与日俱增导致的。芬莱指出,这波关停潮的诱因在新冠疫情之前就已显现:大衰退的滞后效应、购物中心供给过剩、线上零售崛起,以及大型连锁品牌行业整合。
“新冠疫情无疑加速了这一进程,”她说,“不过整件事也出现了一丝转机:民众终于开始留意到变化。这类场所大多平平无奇、常年被人忽视——街坊常光顾的本地小餐馆,或是熟客常年扎堆的不起眼酒吧。”
此后,线下门店的经营成本压力只增不减。2019年至今,餐饮业食材成本上涨38%,人力成本攀升35%;45%经营者表示2025年处于亏损状态,而餐厅菜品定价较2020年上涨31%。酒吧则在保险端承压:部分地区酒类责任险保费飙升25%至40%。影院面临来自房地产端的类似挤压:仅AMC院线年利息支出就超4亿美元,租金高达8.5亿美元,标普全球评级称其资本结构“不具备可持续性”,即便观影客流有所回暖。全球影院巨头Cineworld申请破产时披露,2019至2022年间,旗下单店租金涨幅接近30%。
杨百翰大学(Brigham Young University)心理学与神经科学教授朱莉安娜·霍尔特-伦斯塔德(Julianne Holt-Lunstad)认为,高昂的外出消费已成为人际交往的阻碍。她讲述了儿子在旧金山实习时的交友经历:一次集体聚餐,平摊费用后,他甚至没吃饱。孩子告诉她:“一顿饭花了90美元,我全程都在为花销焦虑,根本无心享受聚会。”而她在校内和学生交流时发现,大家纷纷转向性价比更高的户外活动:轮滑、集体排舞、户外聚会。她在接受《财富》杂志采访谈及人们选择平价社交方式的原因时,表示: “可负担性是原因之一。”
城市空间格局的改变
城市整体形态也随之改变,且多数改造并非偶然。芬莱近年聚焦一类特殊城市空间研究:本应承担聚会功能的场地丧失原有属性,甚至刻意阻隔民众聚集,学界将这类空间称作“负向便民设施”。她向《财富》杂志解释:“所谓负向便民设施,指一处本可疗愈身心的场地,要么无法保障居民健康福祉,要么会直接造成负面影响。”
“诱因多种多样:消费门槛过高;仅设前台、得来速窗口,不提供休憩座椅;外围停车场面积庞大、夏日酷热难耐;整体环境氛围压抑。即便身处此地,人们依旧倍感孤独。”部分改造更是刻意为之:拆除公共长椅避免路人久坐逗留、封堵地下隧道防止流浪者留宿、非机动车道规划优先考虑车流通行便利,而非贴合民众实际出行需求。
我亲眼见过这种情况。多年前,纽约某商业改善区获市政府划拨的公共卫生间,名义上完全免费。但设施维护成本需该商业改善区自行承担。由于无力负担维护成本,市政“馈赠”最终被交还政府。当我们无力维系设施运转、无法保障照明正常、大门正常开放时,便民设施便直接沦为负向便民设施。
长期孤独相当于每天抽15支烟
社交场所消亡带来的健康危害绝非抽象概念。霍尔特-伦斯塔德牵头完成一项涵盖148项研究的荟萃分析,相关研究对数百万人开展了数年乃至数十年的长期追踪。结论显示,长期孤独与孤立带来的死亡风险,相当于每天抽15支烟。此后,她参与撰写的论文对这一对比进行了量化界定,直接将社交孤立与吸烟划为同级别的公共健康风险。2023年美国卫生局局长发布孤独问题专项警示报告(霍尔特-伦斯塔德为撰稿人),明确标出风险数值:社会脱节人群的过早死亡风险高出多达29%。
“这绝非耐人寻味的相关性结论,”她说,“我们厘清了造成这类健康损害的生理机制与行为机制。”她主导的全国性调查《美国社会联结状况》显示,除同住的家人外,近四分之三的美国人每月和亲友线下见面仅两次甚至更少;67%的受访者称自己从未加入任何社团或组织。
“我们的城市与社会规划追求运转效率与经济效益,却未必以人的发展与幸福感为核心目标。”她表示。
低门槛的日常社交大多发生在第三空间。“亲密挚友固然会影响心理、生理、认知健康,但更广泛的社交网络同样至关重要,”霍尔特-伦斯塔德说,“我们需要亲密无间的深层羁绊,也离不开熟人、朋友、邻居、陌生人。这些联结让你拥有社群归属感,意识到自身属于更大的集体,抑或只是感受到自己是人类大家庭的一员。”孤独危机造成的经济损失甚至可以换算成具体金额:有测算显示,仅生产力损失与医疗开支两项,孤独流行病每年给美国带来的经济损失就高达4060亿美元。
这类场所消失还会直接造成就业岗位流失、地方经济发展乏力。芬莱说:“纽约某社区即便关停几家咖啡店,周边尚有50家同类门店,冲击微乎其微;但乡村地区三家咖啡店接连倒闭,带来的冲击截然不同。单纯统计门店数量只是基础工作,无法让我们厘清核心问题:这类场所关停或新增,究竟会让民众生活变好还是变差?”
这与哈佛大学的罗伯特·帕特南(Robert Putnam)25年前在《独自打保龄》一书中提出的警示如出一辙:值得注意的是,如今美国人加入公民团体、工会和教会的比例,比该书首次出版时还要低。
你会分散股票投资组合,为什么不分散“关系投资组合”?
2020年4月起,芬莱主持一项覆盖近7000名美国老年人的纵向研究,结合问卷调查、月度、后续改为年度日记式记录。受访者的口述感受,和她实地调研观察到的现象高度吻合。她表示:“民众焦虑情绪明显加剧。人们逛超市不再随意驻足闲逛,也不会随意和旁人闲谈,只为快速完成采购。曾经的商超,某种程度上是非正式社交场所,能偶遇邻居、和收银店员寒暄。”研究人员将这类日常互动称作“微小邂逅效应”,对应芬莱提出的“关系投资组合多元化”概念——区别于至亲挚友,人们日常接触的更广泛人群。“这能极大地保护健康和福祉,”她说,“我们正在失去这类日常碰面交流。”
芬莱认为,绅士化与其他成本上涨的逻辑一致:城区或许新增了各类商业配套,但原住民往往无法享受这些红利。基于双城都会区(她部分研究基地所在地)实地访谈,芬莱记录下当地居民的感受:翻新后的社区不再像是为他们而建,有人在商铺内遭到店员尾随盯防,或被告知需要更换着装才能在附近购物。
在各类线下活动遇冷的大环境下,影院逆势坚挺,更是成为Z世代约会首选。影院约会整体花销低于正餐聚餐,全程无需刻意找话题聊天。《财富》杂志曾报道,单次约会平均成本飙升至189美元,一年内涨幅超12%;近半数美国单身人士直言,从经济层面考量,约会性价比极低。有些人直接放弃约会:《财富》杂志一篇报道将这一趋势命名为“单身极大化”——年轻人彻底拒绝200美元的约会开销,主动维持单身。
霍尔特-伦斯塔德在家庭生活中也感受到物价上涨带来的影响:她提到儿子花30美元观看克里斯托弗·诺兰(Christopher Nolan)执导的《奥德赛》(The Odyssey),感慨电影票价并不算低廉,但对比90美元的聚餐,观影依然是性价比之选。
深层动因可能与价格无关。在她与Eventbrite联合开展的一项研究中,霍尔特-伦斯塔德发现,最容易建立真正联结的聚会,都具备互动属性:舞会、轮滑等需要参与者投入其中的活动。观影则属于典型的被动休闲方式。“单纯坐在观众席观看,全程零参与,很难建立真正联结。”她说道。但对于初次约会而言,这种被动性反而是优势:两个小时无需刻意尬聊,散场后自然拥有共同话题,期间没有强行搭话的压力。“社交焦虑是阻碍人际交往的一大因素,低压力场景可成为建立社交联结的切入点,省去绞尽脑汁寻找聊天话题的心理负担。”
因此,Z世代扎堆走进芬莱多年来持续关注的昏暗影院,与其说是钟爱电影,不如说是其余社交方式要么花销过高,要么社交压力过大。芬莱评价,这种取舍失去的不只是生活便利,更是一种难以量化的可能性:“部分社交场所是孕育希望的核心载体,而如今大量场所正在消磨人们的期许。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
在以记者身份报道美国大众休闲业态消亡之前,我曾试图通过参政来挽救它。2021年,我在家乡纽约皇后区阿斯托里亚选区竞选纽约市议员,竞选口号为“公共空间,服务公共福祉”,核心承诺是将被私家车占道的人行道、广场与街道收回,交还当地居民。我希望划定更多步行街、增设公共长椅,打造可供邻里落座闲谈的休憩角落。虽然竞选落败,但自此之后,只要城市拆除民众曾经聚集的场所,我都会格外留意,而近来,这类空间消亡仿佛在全美各地同步上演。
美国劳工统计局的数据印证了这种感受。《季度就业与工资普查》可追溯至1990年,按行业细化至县级维度统计经营主体数量。数据显示,自2001年以来,美国影院数量锐减五分之一,保龄球馆关停近三分之一。
2025年一项题为《基础服务与便民设施分配失衡:2010至2021年美国“第三空间”可及性的地域差异》的研究表明,酒吧、保龄球馆的衰败并非个例。研究人员依托人口普查数据,追踪了社会学家定义的12类“第三空间”,涵盖咖啡店、图书馆、博物馆、休闲活动中心、餐馆等场所。结果显示,2019至2021年,所有场所均出现大范围关停,乡村地区、非裔与拉丁裔聚居区、教育水平较低人口集中社区受冲击最为严重。
不仅休闲场所不断消失,现存场所的消费门槛也较往日大幅走高。科罗拉多大学博尔德分校(University of Colorado Boulder)地理学助理教授、该研究的研究者之一杰西卡·芬莱(Jessica Finlay)在被问及这一现象多大程度上由消费承受能力下滑造成时直言:“毫无疑问。方方面面的开支都在上涨。生活成本水涨船高,绅士化改造(中产化)持续推进。”她观察到,持续上涨的成本,正不断压缩能固定到店消费的人群规模。
部分门店倒闭,单纯是实体门店经营压力与日俱增导致的。芬莱指出,这波关停潮的诱因在新冠疫情之前就已显现:大衰退的滞后效应、购物中心供给过剩、线上零售崛起,以及大型连锁品牌行业整合。
“新冠疫情无疑加速了这一进程,”她说,“不过整件事也出现了一丝转机:民众终于开始留意到变化。这类场所大多平平无奇、常年被人忽视——街坊常光顾的本地小餐馆,或是熟客常年扎堆的不起眼酒吧。”
此后,线下门店的经营成本压力只增不减。2019年至今,餐饮业食材成本上涨38%,人力成本攀升35%;45%经营者表示2025年处于亏损状态,而餐厅菜品定价较2020年上涨31%。酒吧则在保险端承压:部分地区酒类责任险保费飙升25%至40%。影院面临来自房地产端的类似挤压:仅AMC院线年利息支出就超4亿美元,租金高达8.5亿美元,标普全球评级称其资本结构“不具备可持续性”,即便观影客流有所回暖。全球影院巨头Cineworld申请破产时披露,2019至2022年间,旗下单店租金涨幅接近30%。
杨百翰大学(Brigham Young University)心理学与神经科学教授朱莉安娜·霍尔特-伦斯塔德(Julianne Holt-Lunstad)认为,高昂的外出消费已成为人际交往的阻碍。她讲述了儿子在旧金山实习时的交友经历:一次集体聚餐,平摊费用后,他甚至没吃饱。孩子告诉她:“一顿饭花了90美元,我全程都在为花销焦虑,根本无心享受聚会。”而她在校内和学生交流时发现,大家纷纷转向性价比更高的户外活动:轮滑、集体排舞、户外聚会。她在接受《财富》杂志采访谈及人们选择平价社交方式的原因时,表示: “可负担性是原因之一。”
城市空间格局的改变
城市整体形态也随之改变,且多数改造并非偶然。芬莱近年聚焦一类特殊城市空间研究:本应承担聚会功能的场地丧失原有属性,甚至刻意阻隔民众聚集,学界将这类空间称作“负向便民设施”。她向《财富》杂志解释:“所谓负向便民设施,指一处本可疗愈身心的场地,要么无法保障居民健康福祉,要么会直接造成负面影响。”
“诱因多种多样:消费门槛过高;仅设前台、得来速窗口,不提供休憩座椅;外围停车场面积庞大、夏日酷热难耐;整体环境氛围压抑。即便身处此地,人们依旧倍感孤独。”部分改造更是刻意为之:拆除公共长椅避免路人久坐逗留、封堵地下隧道防止流浪者留宿、非机动车道规划优先考虑车流通行便利,而非贴合民众实际出行需求。
我亲眼见过这种情况。多年前,纽约某商业改善区获市政府划拨的公共卫生间,名义上完全免费。但设施维护成本需该商业改善区自行承担。由于无力负担维护成本,市政“馈赠”最终被交还政府。当我们无力维系设施运转、无法保障照明正常、大门正常开放时,便民设施便直接沦为负向便民设施。
长期孤独相当于每天抽15支烟
社交场所消亡带来的健康危害绝非抽象概念。霍尔特-伦斯塔德牵头完成一项涵盖148项研究的荟萃分析,相关研究对数百万人开展了数年乃至数十年的长期追踪。结论显示,长期孤独与孤立带来的死亡风险,相当于每天抽15支烟。此后,她参与撰写的论文对这一对比进行了量化界定,直接将社交孤立与吸烟划为同级别的公共健康风险。2023年美国卫生局局长发布孤独问题专项警示报告(霍尔特-伦斯塔德为撰稿人),明确标出风险数值:社会脱节人群的过早死亡风险高出多达29%。
“这绝非耐人寻味的相关性结论,”她说,“我们厘清了造成这类健康损害的生理机制与行为机制。”她主导的全国性调查《美国社会联结状况》显示,除同住的家人外,近四分之三的美国人每月和亲友线下见面仅两次甚至更少;67%的受访者称自己从未加入任何社团或组织。
“我们的城市与社会规划追求运转效率与经济效益,却未必以人的发展与幸福感为核心目标。”她表示。
低门槛的日常社交大多发生在第三空间。“亲密挚友固然会影响心理、生理、认知健康,但更广泛的社交网络同样至关重要,”霍尔特-伦斯塔德说,“我们需要亲密无间的深层羁绊,也离不开熟人、朋友、邻居、陌生人。这些联结让你拥有社群归属感,意识到自身属于更大的集体,抑或只是感受到自己是人类大家庭的一员。”孤独危机造成的经济损失甚至可以换算成具体金额:有测算显示,仅生产力损失与医疗开支两项,孤独流行病每年给美国带来的经济损失就高达4060亿美元。
这类场所消失还会直接造成就业岗位流失、地方经济发展乏力。芬莱说:“纽约某社区即便关停几家咖啡店,周边尚有50家同类门店,冲击微乎其微;但乡村地区三家咖啡店接连倒闭,带来的冲击截然不同。单纯统计门店数量只是基础工作,无法让我们厘清核心问题:这类场所关停或新增,究竟会让民众生活变好还是变差?”
这与哈佛大学的罗伯特·帕特南(Robert Putnam)25年前在《独自打保龄》一书中提出的警示如出一辙:值得注意的是,如今美国人加入公民团体、工会和教会的比例,比该书首次出版时还要低。
你会分散股票投资组合,为什么不分散“关系投资组合”?
2020年4月起,芬莱主持一项覆盖近7000名美国老年人的纵向研究,结合问卷调查、月度、后续改为年度日记式记录。受访者的口述感受,和她实地调研观察到的现象高度吻合。她表示:“民众焦虑情绪明显加剧。人们逛超市不再随意驻足闲逛,也不会随意和旁人闲谈,只为快速完成采购。曾经的商超,某种程度上是非正式社交场所,能偶遇邻居、和收银店员寒暄。”研究人员将这类日常互动称作“微小邂逅效应”,对应芬莱提出的“关系投资组合多元化”概念——区别于至亲挚友,人们日常接触的更广泛人群。“这能极大地保护健康和福祉,”她说,“我们正在失去这类日常碰面交流。”
芬莱认为,绅士化与其他成本上涨的逻辑一致:城区或许新增了各类商业配套,但原住民往往无法享受这些红利。基于双城都会区(她部分研究基地所在地)实地访谈,芬莱记录下当地居民的感受:翻新后的社区不再像是为他们而建,有人在商铺内遭到店员尾随盯防,或被告知需要更换着装才能在附近购物。
在各类线下活动遇冷的大环境下,影院逆势坚挺,更是成为Z世代约会首选。影院约会整体花销低于正餐聚餐,全程无需刻意找话题聊天。《财富》杂志曾报道,单次约会平均成本飙升至189美元,一年内涨幅超12%;近半数美国单身人士直言,从经济层面考量,约会性价比极低。有些人直接放弃约会:《财富》杂志一篇报道将这一趋势命名为“单身极大化”——年轻人彻底拒绝200美元的约会开销,主动维持单身。
霍尔特-伦斯塔德在家庭生活中也感受到物价上涨带来的影响:她提到儿子花30美元观看克里斯托弗·诺兰(Christopher Nolan)执导的《奥德赛》(The Odyssey),感慨电影票价并不算低廉,但对比90美元的聚餐,观影依然是性价比之选。
深层动因可能与价格无关。在她与Eventbrite联合开展的一项研究中,霍尔特-伦斯塔德发现,最容易建立真正联结的聚会,都具备互动属性:舞会、轮滑等需要参与者投入其中的活动。观影则属于典型的被动休闲方式。“单纯坐在观众席观看,全程零参与,很难建立真正联结。”她说道。但对于初次约会而言,这种被动性反而是优势:两个小时无需刻意尬聊,散场后自然拥有共同话题,期间没有强行搭话的压力。“社交焦虑是阻碍人际交往的一大因素,低压力场景可成为建立社交联结的切入点,省去绞尽脑汁寻找聊天话题的心理负担。”
因此,Z世代扎堆走进芬莱多年来持续关注的昏暗影院,与其说是钟爱电影,不如说是其余社交方式要么花销过高,要么社交压力过大。芬莱评价,这种取舍失去的不只是生活便利,更是一种难以量化的可能性:“部分社交场所是孕育希望的核心载体,而如今大量场所正在消磨人们的期许。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Before I was a reporter covering the death of American fun, I tried to run on saving it. In 2021, I ran for New York City Council in my home district of Astoria, Queens, on the slogan “Public Space for the Public Good”—a promise to wrestle back sidewalks, plazas, and streets from car storage and give them back to actual human beings. I wanted more open streets, more benches, more places where a neighbor could just sit down. I didn’t win, but I’ve never stopped noticing when a city takes away somewhere people used to gather, and lately, it feels like that’s happening everywhere at once.
Numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics back that feeling up. According to its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages—which counts business establishments by industry down to the county level going back to 1990—the U.S. has lost a fifth of its movie theaters and nearly a third of its bowling alleys since 2001.
A 2025 study entitled “Uneven access to essential services and amenities: Geographic disparities in ‘third place’ availability across the United States from 2010 to 2021,” found the same pattern holds well beyond bars and bowling alleys. Using Census data, researchers tracked 12 categories of what sociologists call “third places”—among them coffee shops, libraries, museums, recreation centers, and restaurants—and found widespread closures across every single category from 2019 to 2021, with the losses hitting hardest in rural areas and communities with larger Black, Hispanic, and less-educated populations.
Not only are these places disappearing, the ones still standing cost more to walk into than they used to. Jessica Finlay, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Colorado Boulder and one of the study’s researchers, immediately agreed when asked how much of this is an affordability story. “Absolutely. I mean, everything costs more,” she said. “Cost of living is so much more, and gentrification is absolutely happening.” It’s a dynamic she’s watched shrink the pool of people who can still afford to be regulars anywhere.
Some of this is simply the economics of running a physical space getting harder. Finlay traces the wave of closures to forces that predate the pandemic: delayed effects of the Great Recession, an oversupply of malls, the rise of online retail, and consolidation among major chains.
“COVID certainly accelerated it,” she said. “I think something of a silver lining to all this is that people started to notice. These are often quite mundane, overlooked places—that local diner where people hang out, or that hole-in-the-wall bar that has regulars who’ve been going there for a long time.”
The math has only gotten less forgiving since. Restaurants have seen food costs rise 38% and labor costs 35% since 2019, and 45% of operators say they weren’t profitable in 2025, just as restaurant menu prices are up 31% since 2020. Bars are getting squeezed from the insurance side: liquor liability premiums have jumped 25% to 40% in some regions. Movie theaters face a similar squeeze from the real estate side: AMC alone carries more than $400 million in annual interest expense and $850 million in rent, a capital structure S&P Global Ratings has called “unsustainable” even as attendance recovers. When Cineworld filed for bankruptcy, it cited a nearly 30% rent increase per theater in that same 2019-to-2022 window.
Julianne Holt-Lunstad, a professor of psychology and neuroscience at Brigham Young University, agrees the price of showing up has become its own barrier. She described her son’s experience trying to make friends after moving to San Francisco for an internship: a group dinner, a family-style bill split evenly, and he still left hungry. “‘It cost me $90 and I was just stressed about the money the whole time that I couldn’t even enjoy myself,'” he told her. What she’s hearing instead from students on her own college campus is a retreat toward cheaper, more physical alternatives—roller skating, line dancing, outdoor meetups. “Affordability is one,” she told Fortune, referring to reasons pushing people toward those substitutes.
A changing urban landscape
The city itself has changed shape around this too, and not always by accident. Finlay spent recent years studying what happens when a place that should function as a gathering spot doesn’t—or actively works against the people it’s supposed to serve, something researchers call a “disamenity.” “A disamenity for me is when a potentially therapeutic site either doesn’t support health and well-being or directly harms you,” she told Fortune.
“Maybe that’s because it’s unaffordable. Maybe that’s because there’s no seats—it’s just a small check-in counter or drive-through. Maybe it’s because there’s a giant parking lot outside that’s too hot, or the environment’s just off. People say the place is still isolating.” Sometimes the design is intentional: benches removed so people can’t loiter, tunnels sealed so no one can sleep in them, bike lanes routed around convenience rather than need.
I’ve seen this firsthand. Years ago, a business improvement district in New York was given a public bathroom by the city—free, on paper. But maintaining it fell entirely on the BID’s own budget. And unable to absorb the cost of maintenance, the “gift” was given back. An amenity became a disamenity the moment we couldn’t afford to maintain it, to keep the lights on and the door unlocked.
Chronic isolation is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day
The health stakes of all this are not abstract. Holt-Lunstad led a meta-analysis of 148 studies tracking millions of people over years and often decades, finding that chronic loneliness and isolation carry a mortality risk comparable to smoking 15 cigarettes a day. A later paper she co-authored formalized that comparison, benchmarking social isolation directly against smoking as a public health risk. The U.S. Surgeon General’s 2023 advisory on loneliness, which Holt-Lunstad helped author, put a number on the danger: people who are socially disconnected face up to a 29% higher risk of premature death.
“This isn’t just some interesting correlation,” she said. “We know the biological mechanisms, the behavioral mechanisms that account for these effects.” Her own national survey, Social Connection in America, found nearly three-quarters of Americans get together in person with people they care about, other than those they live with, just twice a month or less, and 67% report never participating in a club or organization at all.
“We have designed our world, our society, for efficiency and economic benefit, and not necessarily for the thriving and well-being of humans,” she said.
Third places are where much of that everyday, low-stakes connection used to happen by default. “It’s not just our close, intimate relationships that impact our mental, physical, cognitive health, but our broader network,” Holt-Lunstad said. “We need to be able to have those close, intimate ties, but also the acquaintances, the friends, the neighbors, the strangers—people that make you feel part of some kind of community, or something bigger, or even just part of humanity.” There’s even a dollar figure on the fallout: one estimate puts the cost of the loneliness epidemic to the U.S. economy at $406 billion a year, in lost productivity and health care spending alone.
It also means a lack of employment opportunities and economic development. “If you lose a few coffee shops, but you have 50 coffee shops in New York City in your local area, does that few matter?” Finlay said. “Versus if you’re in a rural area and you have three coffee shops closed—that’s going to be felt differently. Counting is a first step, but it doesn’t fully help us understand: do lives get better or worse when we lose or gain these particular sites?”
It’s a version of the same warning Harvard’s Robert Putnam issued a quarter-century ago in “Bowling Alone,” noting that Americans are now even less likely to join civic groups, unions, and churches than when the book was first published.
You diversify your stock portfolio, why not your relational portfolio?
Finlay also runs a longitudinal study of nearly 7,000 older Americans that began in April 2020, combining surveys with monthly and then annual journal-style writing. What she’s hearing echoes in her own observations. “People are more stressed,” she said. “They no longer browse the aisles, they no longer chit chat with someone. They’re rushing to get the groceries, whereas it used to be kind of a site to mingle informally, to see a neighbor, chat with someone behind the counter.” Researchers call this everyday contact “the science of small encounters,” tied to what Finlay described as “relational portfolio diversity”—a broader set of people a person interacts with daily, independent of close friendships or family. “That’s highly protective for health and well-being,” she said. “We’re losing some of that everyday contact.”
Finlay sees gentrification cutting the same way as rising costs elsewhere: it can bring in new services, but not necessarily to the people who were already there. Drawing on interviews conducted across the Twin Cities, where she’s based part of her research, Finlay described participants who said a revitalized neighborhood no longer felt built for them, with people saying they were followed in stores, or were told her they had to dress differently just to shop nearby.
But one kind of outing has held on, and Gen Z is choosing it specifically for dates: the movies. A date at the movies costs less than dinner, and conversation is optional. Fortune has reported that the average cost of a single date has climbed to $189, up more than 12% in a year, with nearly half of single Americans now saying dating isn’t financially worth it. Some are opting out entirely: what one Fortune story dubbed “solo-maxxing” is the trend of young adults rejecting $200 dates altogether in favor of staying single.
Holt-Lunstad has watched the price problem play out at home. She noted her son paid $30 to see Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and called movie tickets “not that cheap”—but next to his $90 group dinner, the theater still wins.
The bigger reason may not be about the price at all. In a study she ran with Eventbrite, Holt-Lunstad found that the gatherings most likely to build real connection are the interactive ones: dancing, roller skating, anything that asks something of the people there. A movie sits at the opposite end of that scale. “If you’re just sitting passively in an audience, not actually participating, that’s less so,” she said. For a first date, that passivity is the point. Two hours with nothing required of you produces something to talk about afterward, without any pressure to talk during. “Social anxiety can be a barrier to connection,” Holt-Lunstad said, “and so if there’s less pressure, that may be an entry point for creating connection that reduces the pressure to identify conversation topics.”
So Gen Z ends up in the same dark rooms Finlay has been watching close for years, for reasons that have less to do with loving movies than with everything else getting too expensive and too demanding. And what’s lost in that trade, Finlay argues, isn’t just convenience—it’s a harder-to-measure sense of possibility. “There’s some social infrastructure sites that are really pivotal to developing hope,” she said, “and a lot of sites that are diminishing hope.”