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体育博彩成美国头号消遣方式:投注流水超电影、艺术、博物馆与音乐消费总和

Catherina Gioino
2026-07-28

2025年,美国民众的体育赛事投注总额约为1660亿美元。

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美国民众的体育博彩投注总额,已超过博物馆、艺术、电影、音乐及演唱会的消费总和。图片来源:Jill Connelly/Bloomberg via Getty Images

2025年,美国民众的体育赛事投注总额约为1660亿美元,超过美国电影、音乐、图书与博物馆行业的营收总和。

2025年北美票房总收入为88.7亿美元,仍较疫情前水平低22%;录制音乐营收创下115亿美元的历史新高;演唱会、音乐节等现场音乐收入达185.1亿美元。与此同时,根据美国出版商协会(Association of American Publishers)的统计,图书出版业全年营收为146亿美元,美国博物馆行业预计创收164亿美元。上述营收合计约为700亿美元,还不到美国民众体育投注总额的一半。

乔治城大学(Georgetown University)体育产业管理项目兼职讲师马丁·“马蒂”·康威(Martin “Marty” Conway)表示:“体育博彩填补了消费空白,必然会挤压其他娱乐形式和休闲消费的市场空间。”如今,体育博彩随处可见,也逐渐被大众视为又一种常规娱乐方式。“过去人们只赌赛事胜负,现在还能对比赛中的各类细分事件下注。这种参与形式,和我们以往熟知的形式截然不同。”

1660亿美元的数字已然惊人,但实际数额可能更高,尤其是美国多个州允许部落赌场经营博彩业务(佛罗里达州最为典型,华盛顿州、威斯康星州亦在此列),而这类赌场无需公开披露投注流水。圣十字学院(Holy Cross)研究体育博彩的经济学家维克多·马西森(Victor Matheson)表示,仅佛罗里达州的投注额就在50亿至100亿美元之间。他在接受《财富》杂志采访时称:“1650亿到1700亿美元的估算其实偏低。”

这一数据尚未计入Kalshi、Polymarket等预测市场平台的体育投注规模。这类平台在获得联邦监管许可后,已迅速拓展体育合约业务。马西森估计,此类平台的投注总额可达500亿至1000亿美元。综合来看,2025年美国体育博彩的真实规模——合法体育博彩、预测市场平台及未公开的部落赌场投注——可能接近3000亿美元。换言之,去年美国成年人人均合法体育投注额约为1000美元。

投注总额指的是资金流水,并非消费者实际支出:超过90%的投注资金会以奖金形式返还给投注者。人均1000美元的投注额,折算下来成年人人均亏损约100美元。马西森表示:“整体来看,这似乎算不上危机,但真正的问题在于亏损分布极不均衡。”

“免费”是最高明的营销话术

亏损并未平均分摊到所有投注者身上。约95%的亏损由5%的投注者承担,这一小部分重度用户的消费模式,与周末随手投20美元串关的普通爱好者截然不同。马西森指出:“这才是问题所在。”

康威曾在美国职业棒球大联盟、巴尔的摩金莺队、德州游骑兵队及美国在线(AOL)担任高管长达三十余年。他表示,博彩平台的算法旨在识别并留住这类重度用户。他说道:“平台会监测到:‘这名用户已经两周没有下注了,需推送优惠活动吸引其回流。’平台可依托后台数据,精准捕捉用户流失节点。”

体育博彩广告中随处可见的“免费投注”促销活动,正是为了吸引这类流失用户。康威称,这种模式源自早年的非法博彩体系——赌客输钱后会获得赊账额度,进而被诱使继续下注。他表示:“商业史上最有效的营销词就是‘免费’。在博彩行业,平台会把活动包装成免费福利,但我们都清楚,世上根本没有免费的赌注。”

2018年美国最高法院推翻由联邦政府批准的体育博彩禁令前,该产业在美国大部分地区几乎不存在。禁令解除后,体育博彩成为美国历史上扩张最快的消费业态之一——解禁首年投注总额仅66亿美元,到2025年已飙升至1660亿美元。马西森曾追踪体育博彩已合法化数十年的英国市场,他表示这一增长轨迹并非完全出乎意料。他表示:“英国成年人人均年投注额约为1000美元,而美国全面放开体育博彩的州,比如新泽西州、纽约州、马萨诸塞州、科罗拉多州、亚利桑那州,人均年投注流水也突破1000美元。”

掌控一切的错觉

他表示,合法市场吸引的用户群体,超出了此前预期。体育博彩吸引了大量受过大学教育的年轻男性,而这一群体此前基本不参与传统赌博。马西森称,这类此前未被开发的消费群体抱有“自己能掌控结果”的错觉。“他们会想:‘只要我多搜集信息、多做研究,就能靠这个赚钱。’这和掷骰子不同,骰子的概率是固定的,不存在能左右结果的特殊手法。”

这种“凭借技术与知识获得优势”的感觉,吸引了一批绝不会买彩票的人。他补充道,博彩赔率经过精密设定,会抵消投注者自认为具备的信息优势。“所有公开信息早已纳入赔率计算体系,制定盘口的从业者绝非外行。”

康威说道:“这本质上就是个漩涡,一旦形成势头就会不断升级。”串关投注、赛事实时投注、球员个人数据特殊投注,都是博彩公司提升用户粘性的手段,将博彩本身塑造成一种体育消费形式,争夺原本用于现场观赛、无赌资观赛的时间与预算。康威表示:“过去人们只赌赛事胜负,现在还能对比赛中的各类细分事件下注。这种参与形式,和我们以往熟知的形式截然不同。”

体育博彩支出是否会挤占电影、保龄球、演唱会消费,目前尚无实证结论。马西森表示:“人均100美元的娱乐支出——体育博彩实际人均消费——很难说会让人们不再玩电子游戏、不再看漫威电影。”

他观察到的最显而易见的替代现象,发生在博彩业内部:在开通线上体育博彩的州,便利店彩票销量已开始下滑,原因在于线上投注操作更便捷,使得人们无需人们专程前往便利店购彩。

纽约联邦储备银行近期一项研究发现,在体育博彩合法化的州,千禧一代与Z世代的信用卡逾期率有所上升。研究人员称,这表明部分投注者正在通过借贷维持赌博习惯。《美国新闻与世界报道》的一项调查显示,目前有四分之一的体育投注者担心自己无法控制赌博行为。

马西森表示:“对于这类成瘾性产品,核心问题在于,行业是在不断榨干用户,还是维系玩家持续投入。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

2025年,美国民众的体育赛事投注总额约为1660亿美元,超过美国电影、音乐、图书与博物馆行业的营收总和。

2025年北美票房总收入为88.7亿美元,仍较疫情前水平低22%;录制音乐营收创下115亿美元的历史新高;演唱会、音乐节等现场音乐收入达185.1亿美元。与此同时,根据美国出版商协会(Association of American Publishers)的统计,图书出版业全年营收为146亿美元,美国博物馆行业预计创收164亿美元。上述营收合计约为700亿美元,还不到美国民众体育投注总额的一半。

乔治城大学(Georgetown University)体育产业管理项目兼职讲师马丁·“马蒂”·康威(Martin “Marty” Conway)表示:“体育博彩填补了消费空白,必然会挤压其他娱乐形式和休闲消费的市场空间。”如今,体育博彩随处可见,也逐渐被大众视为又一种常规娱乐方式。“过去人们只赌赛事胜负,现在还能对比赛中的各类细分事件下注。这种参与形式,和我们以往熟知的形式截然不同。”

1660亿美元的数字已然惊人,但实际数额可能更高,尤其是美国多个州允许部落赌场经营博彩业务(佛罗里达州最为典型,华盛顿州、威斯康星州亦在此列),而这类赌场无需公开披露投注流水。圣十字学院(Holy Cross)研究体育博彩的经济学家维克多·马西森(Victor Matheson)表示,仅佛罗里达州的投注额就在50亿至100亿美元之间。他在接受《财富》杂志采访时称:“1650亿到1700亿美元的估算其实偏低。”

这一数据尚未计入Kalshi、Polymarket等预测市场平台的体育投注规模。这类平台在获得联邦监管许可后,已迅速拓展体育合约业务。马西森估计,此类平台的投注总额可达500亿至1000亿美元。综合来看,2025年美国体育博彩的真实规模——合法体育博彩、预测市场平台及未公开的部落赌场投注——可能接近3000亿美元。换言之,去年美国成年人人均合法体育投注额约为1000美元。

投注总额指的是资金流水,并非消费者实际支出:超过90%的投注资金会以奖金形式返还给投注者。人均1000美元的投注额,折算下来成年人人均亏损约100美元。马西森表示:“整体来看,这似乎算不上危机,但真正的问题在于亏损分布极不均衡。”

“免费”是最高明的营销话术

亏损并未平均分摊到所有投注者身上。约95%的亏损由5%的投注者承担,这一小部分重度用户的消费模式,与周末随手投20美元串关的普通爱好者截然不同。马西森指出:“这才是问题所在。”

康威曾在美国职业棒球大联盟、巴尔的摩金莺队、德州游骑兵队及美国在线(AOL)担任高管长达三十余年。他表示,博彩平台的算法旨在识别并留住这类重度用户。他说道:“平台会监测到:‘这名用户已经两周没有下注了,需推送优惠活动吸引其回流。’平台可依托后台数据,精准捕捉用户流失节点。”

体育博彩广告中随处可见的“免费投注”促销活动,正是为了吸引这类流失用户。康威称,这种模式源自早年的非法博彩体系——赌客输钱后会获得赊账额度,进而被诱使继续下注。他表示:“商业史上最有效的营销词就是‘免费’。在博彩行业,平台会把活动包装成免费福利,但我们都清楚,世上根本没有免费的赌注。”

2018年美国最高法院推翻由联邦政府批准的体育博彩禁令前,该产业在美国大部分地区几乎不存在。禁令解除后,体育博彩成为美国历史上扩张最快的消费业态之一——解禁首年投注总额仅66亿美元,到2025年已飙升至1660亿美元。马西森曾追踪体育博彩已合法化数十年的英国市场,他表示这一增长轨迹并非完全出乎意料。他表示:“英国成年人人均年投注额约为1000美元,而美国全面放开体育博彩的州,比如新泽西州、纽约州、马萨诸塞州、科罗拉多州、亚利桑那州,人均年投注流水也突破1000美元。”

掌控一切的错觉

他表示,合法市场吸引的用户群体,超出了此前预期。体育博彩吸引了大量受过大学教育的年轻男性,而这一群体此前基本不参与传统赌博。马西森称,这类此前未被开发的消费群体抱有“自己能掌控结果”的错觉。“他们会想:‘只要我多搜集信息、多做研究,就能靠这个赚钱。’这和掷骰子不同,骰子的概率是固定的,不存在能左右结果的特殊手法。”

这种“凭借技术与知识获得优势”的感觉,吸引了一批绝不会买彩票的人。他补充道,博彩赔率经过精密设定,会抵消投注者自认为具备的信息优势。“所有公开信息早已纳入赔率计算体系,制定盘口的从业者绝非外行。”

康威说道:“这本质上就是个漩涡,一旦形成势头就会不断升级。”串关投注、赛事实时投注、球员个人数据特殊投注,都是博彩公司提升用户粘性的手段,将博彩本身塑造成一种体育消费形式,争夺原本用于现场观赛、无赌资观赛的时间与预算。康威表示:“过去人们只赌赛事胜负,现在还能对比赛中的各类细分事件下注。这种参与形式,和我们以往熟知的形式截然不同。”

体育博彩支出是否会挤占电影、保龄球、演唱会消费,目前尚无实证结论。马西森表示:“人均100美元的娱乐支出——体育博彩实际人均消费——很难说会让人们不再玩电子游戏、不再看漫威电影。”

他观察到的最显而易见的替代现象,发生在博彩业内部:在开通线上体育博彩的州,便利店彩票销量已开始下滑,原因在于线上投注操作更便捷,使得人们无需人们专程前往便利店购彩。

纽约联邦储备银行近期一项研究发现,在体育博彩合法化的州,千禧一代与Z世代的信用卡逾期率有所上升。研究人员称,这表明部分投注者正在通过借贷维持赌博习惯。《美国新闻与世界报道》的一项调查显示,目前有四分之一的体育投注者担心自己无法控制赌博行为。

马西森表示:“对于这类成瘾性产品,核心问题在于,行业是在不断榨干用户,还是维系玩家持续投入。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

In 2025, Americans placed roughly $166 billion in bets on sporting events. That’s more than the entire U.S. movie, music, book, and museum industries generated in revenue combined.

The North American box office totaled $8.87 billion in 2025, which is still 22% below pre-pandemic levels. Recorded music revenue hit a record $11.5 billion. Live music like concerts and festivals brought in $18.51 billion. Meanwhile, book publishers tracked by the Association of American Publishers reported $14.6 billion for the year. And the U.S. museum industry generated an estimated $16.4 billion. Add it up and the total comes to roughly $70 billion, which is less than half what Americans wagered on sports.

“It fills that void, and it will crowd out other forms of entertainment, other forms of hospitality, for sure,” said Martin “Marty” Conway, an adjunct lecturer in Georgetown University’s Sports Industry Management program. Sports gambling, in all respects, has become more ubiquitous, and as a result, is becoming more accepted as yet another form of entertainment. “They’ve taken something that was just who’s going to win, and now you’re actually able to get involved in certain other events of the game. That’s a form of engagement as opposed to what we knew previously.”

As surprising as that $166 billion figure is, the actual may be even greater, especially because several states permit betting through tribal casinos—most notably Florida, along with Washington and Wisconsin—which are not required to publicly disclose their handle. Victor Matheson, an economist at Holy Cross who studies sports gambling, said Florida alone accounts for somewhere between $5 billion and $10 billion. “The $165 or $170 billion number is low,” he told Fortune .

That figure also excludes sports wagering flowing through prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have rapidly expanded into sports contracts since gaining federal regulatory clearance. Matheson estimated that activity could represent another $50 billion-$100 billion in handle. Put together, the true volume of American sports wagering in 2025—legal sportsbooks plus prediction markets plus unreported tribal handle—could approach $300 billion. In other words, the average American adult placed roughly $1,000 in legal bets on sports last year.

Handle is gross throughput, not consumer expenditure: over 90% of what is wagered gets returned to bettors in the form of winnings. That $1,000 in bets translates to roughly $100 in average losses per adult. “That overall doesn’t really seem to be a crisis,” Matheson said, but he argued the real crisis is the distribution of losses.

The best word is ‘free’

Losses are not spread evenly across the betting population. Roughly 95% of total losses are absorbed by just 5% of bettors, a small cohort of heavy users whose spending looks nothing like the casual fan putting $20 on a Sunday parlay. “That is a problem,” Matheson said.

Conway, who spent three decades as a senior executive at Major League Baseball, the Baltimore Orioles, the Texas Rangers, and AOL, said the platforms are engineered to identify and retain exactly those heavy users. “They’re able to recognize, ‘Hey, this person hasn’t really participated in two weeks. I need to spike them an offer,'” he said. “They’re very good about back-end information about when people are dropping off.”

The free-bet promotions that are ubiquitous in sports advertising—which Conway said is a descendant of the old illegal bookmaking system where bettors received credit to keep wagering after a loss—are designed to pull those users back in. “The best word in marketing in the history of business has been ‘free,'” he said, “and in this case they make it appear as though it’s free, even though we know it’s really not.”

The industry barely existed in most of the country before the Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on sports betting in 2018. What followed was one of the fastest expansions of consumer activity in American history—from $6.6 billion wagered that first year to $166 billion in 2025. Matheson, who had tracked the U.K. market where sports betting has been legal for decades, said the trajectory was not entirely surprising. “The UK is betting about $1,000 per adult per year,” he said. “The states that went all in. New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Colorado, Arizona. They’re all at over $1,000 per person per year in handle.”

The illusion of control

What was less predictable, he said, was the demographic the legal market uncovered. Sports betting has drawn in young, college-educated men who had largely stayed out of traditional gambling. This previously untapped consumer base, Matheson said, has the illusion of control. “You say, ‘If I just knew a little bit more and studied a little bit harder, I really could make money here,’ because this isn’t craps, where the odds are what they are and I can’t throw the dice in some special way.”

That sense of a skill- or knowledge-based edge draws in people who would never buy a lottery ticket. The markets, he added, are priced specifically to neutralize whatever edge bettors think they have. “All of that knowledge is built into these bets in the first place. These lines are not being made by uneducated people.”

“It literally is just a vortex,” Conway said. “It picks up momentum, and that momentum takes it to another level.” Parlays, live in-game wagering, prop bets on individual player statistics are all engagement mechanics that sportsbooks use to turn betting into its own form of sports consumption, competing for the same hours and dollars that once went to attending games or watching them without a financial stake. “They’ve taken something that was just who’s going to win,” Conway said, “and now you’re actually able to get involved in certain other events of the game. That’s a form of engagement as opposed to what we knew previously.”

Whether that engagement is displacing spending that once went to movie tickets, bowling alleys, and concert venues remains an open empirical question. “It’s hard to believe that $100 of entertainment spending per person, because that’s what sports betting is actually costing people on average, is going to make it so that people aren’t playing video games or going to Marvel movies anymore,” Matheson said.

The clearest displacement he could point to is happening within gambling itself: lottery ticket sales at convenience stores have begun to decline in states where online sports betting has taken hold, as the more frictionless option crowds out the trip to the corner store.

A recent New York Fed study found credit card delinquencies among millennials and Gen Z have risen in states where sports betting is legal, evidence, researchers said, that some bettors are financing the habit with debt. A quarter of sports bettors now say they worry they cannot control their gambling, according to a U.S. News and World Report survey.

“With addictive products,” Matheson said, “the question is whether you kind of kill off your hosts—or whether you can string them along.”

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