
美联储最新发布的一项调查,勾勒出美国年轻人不容乐观的生活现状:从支付手机账单到搬回家与父母同住,许多人仍需要依靠父母的帮助。
这项数据来自美联储发布的《美国家庭经济状况报告》(Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households)。报告显示,49%的18岁至29岁成年人仍与父母同住;该年龄段另有47%的成年人接受过家庭成员以外人士的资助,用于支付手机费、日常生活开支或住房成本等开销。不过,多年来专职研究家庭组建趋势的Indeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管劳拉·乌尔里希指出,这两个群体并不重叠。
乌尔里希对《财富》杂志表示:“你可以把它想象成一个维恩图。49%的人仍与父母同住;而另外47%的人则接受家庭外部资助,其中并不包括那些与父母同住的人。也就是说,实际上大量成年子女仍在接受父母的经济支持。”
乌尔里希曾任里士满联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)高级区域经济学家,长期研究家庭经济趋势。在她看来,这项基于美联储《家庭经济与决策调查》(SHED)的数据令人担忧。就在去年,与父母同住的年轻成年人比例仅有三分之一。
乌尔里希表示:“家庭组建速度一旦放缓,不仅会抑制新家庭的诞生,还会推迟人们的初婚和初育年龄,导致生育率进一步下降。同时,购房需求也会减少,进而影响地方学校生源。如果你不是经济学家,可能会觉得这无足轻重,只是多了一些成年人住在父母家里而已。但实际上,它所带来的经济影响远比表面看上去更加深远。”
当人们在父母家居住的时间更长,或年纪偏大仍与他人合租时,他们结婚、生育、买房等人生大事都会推迟。这种人口结构变化,还将进一步冲击住房市场、学校生源,甚至影响退休年龄。
经济连锁反应显现
乌尔里希表示,这一趋势与独立报告中所反映的住房可负担性下降、通胀高企以及年轻人初入职场的就业困难等现状高度吻合。“考虑到当前媒体对于住房可负担性危机、通胀居高不下的密集报道,以及年轻人找第一份工作时面临的现实困境,这一比例攀升也就不足为奇。”
这种依赖他人经济支持的现象也并非低龄青年独有的问题。乌尔里希提到,同一项调查还显示,30岁至44岁的成年人中,也有26%表示曾接受家庭成员以外人士的经济资助。她表示:“这不仅仅是那些初涉社会的年轻人的问题。这一比例还在不断攀升,甚至已经超越了大家印象里毕业群体的范围。”这一趋势也与《财富》杂志今年援引富国银行(Wells Fargo)另一项调查得出的结论相吻合:在家中有18岁至28岁Z世代子女的父母中,有64%坦言孩子目前仍需他们的经济支持,而且这类资助主要用于房租、手机费等基本生活开支,而非可自由支配的消费。
不过,乌尔里希也提醒,这项调查的提问方式,可能在一定程度上高估了“与父母同住”的比例,大学生群体尤其如此。《家庭经济与决策调查》只是简单询问受访者:“你的子女年满18周岁之后是否与你同住?”
乌尔里希表示:“我儿子正在上大学,他一年大部分时间都住在弗吉尼亚州。有时候我会想,如果有人问我他是否与我住在一起,我到底该怎样回答。现在他正好在家,如果有人现在问我,我大概会回答‘是’;但到了9月,我可能又会回答‘不是’。所以,我确实有些疑惑,调查究竟是如何统计大学生这一群体的。”不过,她也强调,无论统计口径如何,这一趋势本身是真实存在的。“这个比例不断攀升,这一点毫无疑问。”
这项调查还追踪了家庭对自身经济状况的主观感受。根据美联储经济数据库(FRED)的相关数据,认为自己“过得还不错”或“生活宽裕”的家庭占比,在2021年一度升至78%。乌尔里希认为,这主要得益于疫情期间发放的财政刺激资金和加强版失业救济,而非经济基本面真正改善。此后,这一比例一直维持在72%至73%之间。她表示:“我不会把它视为一个具有实质意义的信号。在我看来,那只是一个异常值。真正让我感到意外的是,在经历居高不下的通胀后,这个比例竟然没有出现更明显的下降。”
乌尔里希还表示,从调查结果来看,经济宽裕感下降主要集中在未获得高中学历的人群,而拥有高中学历的人群,自2016年以来总体保持相对稳定。她认为,这正说明“K型经济”不仅体现在收入层面,也正在不同代际之间逐渐显现。
乌尔里希表示,这一宏观趋势将重构美国经济,且未来数年内,其影响将不单单反映在调查数据中,还将体现在人口流动、终身收入等方面。过去,预计会前往大城市寻找第一份工作的年轻人,如今则更倾向于留在离家更近的地方,一边寻找工作,一边继续依靠家庭支持。她认为,对于单个家庭来说,这种选择在财务上或许是理性的,但也会重塑整个经济运行格局。
“这些微观层面的决定会直接冲击个体家庭;但从宏观层面看,它们的影响会波及更多领域,比如住房需求、生育率,以及我们刚才探讨的所有问题。当越来越多年轻人继续与父母同住,这些影响终将显现出来。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
美联储最新发布的一项调查,勾勒出美国年轻人不容乐观的生活现状:从支付手机账单到搬回家与父母同住,许多人仍需要依靠父母的帮助。
这项数据来自美联储发布的《美国家庭经济状况报告》(Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households)。报告显示,49%的18岁至29岁成年人仍与父母同住;该年龄段另有47%的成年人接受过家庭成员以外人士的资助,用于支付手机费、日常生活开支或住房成本等开销。不过,多年来专职研究家庭组建趋势的Indeed Hiring Lab经济研究主管劳拉·乌尔里希指出,这两个群体并不重叠。
乌尔里希对《财富》杂志表示:“你可以把它想象成一个维恩图。49%的人仍与父母同住;而另外47%的人则接受家庭外部资助,其中并不包括那些与父母同住的人。也就是说,实际上大量成年子女仍在接受父母的经济支持。”
乌尔里希曾任里士满联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)高级区域经济学家,长期研究家庭经济趋势。在她看来,这项基于美联储《家庭经济与决策调查》(SHED)的数据令人担忧。就在去年,与父母同住的年轻成年人比例仅有三分之一。
乌尔里希表示:“家庭组建速度一旦放缓,不仅会抑制新家庭的诞生,还会推迟人们的初婚和初育年龄,导致生育率进一步下降。同时,购房需求也会减少,进而影响地方学校生源。如果你不是经济学家,可能会觉得这无足轻重,只是多了一些成年人住在父母家里而已。但实际上,它所带来的经济影响远比表面看上去更加深远。”
当人们在父母家居住的时间更长,或年纪偏大仍与他人合租时,他们结婚、生育、买房等人生大事都会推迟。这种人口结构变化,还将进一步冲击住房市场、学校生源,甚至影响退休年龄。
经济连锁反应显现
乌尔里希表示,这一趋势与独立报告中所反映的住房可负担性下降、通胀高企以及年轻人初入职场的就业困难等现状高度吻合。“考虑到当前媒体对于住房可负担性危机、通胀居高不下的密集报道,以及年轻人找第一份工作时面临的现实困境,这一比例攀升也就不足为奇。”
这种依赖他人经济支持的现象也并非低龄青年独有的问题。乌尔里希提到,同一项调查还显示,30岁至44岁的成年人中,也有26%表示曾接受家庭成员以外人士的经济资助。她表示:“这不仅仅是那些初涉社会的年轻人的问题。这一比例还在不断攀升,甚至已经超越了大家印象里毕业群体的范围。”这一趋势也与《财富》杂志今年援引富国银行(Wells Fargo)另一项调查得出的结论相吻合:在家中有18岁至28岁Z世代子女的父母中,有64%坦言孩子目前仍需他们的经济支持,而且这类资助主要用于房租、手机费等基本生活开支,而非可自由支配的消费。
不过,乌尔里希也提醒,这项调查的提问方式,可能在一定程度上高估了“与父母同住”的比例,大学生群体尤其如此。《家庭经济与决策调查》只是简单询问受访者:“你的子女年满18周岁之后是否与你同住?”
乌尔里希表示:“我儿子正在上大学,他一年大部分时间都住在弗吉尼亚州。有时候我会想,如果有人问我他是否与我住在一起,我到底该怎样回答。现在他正好在家,如果有人现在问我,我大概会回答‘是’;但到了9月,我可能又会回答‘不是’。所以,我确实有些疑惑,调查究竟是如何统计大学生这一群体的。”不过,她也强调,无论统计口径如何,这一趋势本身是真实存在的。“这个比例不断攀升,这一点毫无疑问。”
这项调查还追踪了家庭对自身经济状况的主观感受。根据美联储经济数据库(FRED)的相关数据,认为自己“过得还不错”或“生活宽裕”的家庭占比,在2021年一度升至78%。乌尔里希认为,这主要得益于疫情期间发放的财政刺激资金和加强版失业救济,而非经济基本面真正改善。此后,这一比例一直维持在72%至73%之间。她表示:“我不会把它视为一个具有实质意义的信号。在我看来,那只是一个异常值。真正让我感到意外的是,在经历居高不下的通胀后,这个比例竟然没有出现更明显的下降。”
乌尔里希还表示,从调查结果来看,经济宽裕感下降主要集中在未获得高中学历的人群,而拥有高中学历的人群,自2016年以来总体保持相对稳定。她认为,这正说明“K型经济”不仅体现在收入层面,也正在不同代际之间逐渐显现。
乌尔里希表示,这一宏观趋势将重构美国经济,且未来数年内,其影响将不单单反映在调查数据中,还将体现在人口流动、终身收入等方面。过去,预计会前往大城市寻找第一份工作的年轻人,如今则更倾向于留在离家更近的地方,一边寻找工作,一边继续依靠家庭支持。她认为,对于单个家庭来说,这种选择在财务上或许是理性的,但也会重塑整个经济运行格局。
“这些微观层面的决定会直接冲击个体家庭;但从宏观层面看,它们的影响会波及更多领域,比如住房需求、生育率,以及我们刚才探讨的所有问题。当越来越多年轻人继续与父母同住,这些影响终将显现出来。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
A new Federal Reserve survey offers a somber look at how young Americans are getting by: a lot with their parents’ help, from paying a phone bill to even living at home.
The data comes from the Fed’s Report on the Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households, which found that 49% of adults ages 18 to 29 live with their parents, and another 47% of adults in that same age group received help from someone outside their household to pay an expense—money toward a cell phone bill, general living expenses, or housing costs. Notably, those aren’t the same population, according to Laura Ullrich, director of economics at Indeed Hiring Lab, who has studied household formation trends for years.
“You’ve got to think about this as a Venn diagram,” Ullrich told Fortune. “Forty-nine percent of them are living at home. 47% of them are getting help from someone outside their household, which doesn’t include those living at home. There’s a lot of adult children getting financial support from their parents.”
The data, based on the Fed’s Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), is troubling for Ullrich, a former senior regional economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond who has spent years studying household economic trends. Just last year, the stat was closer to 1 in 3 young adults living at home.
“When household formation slows, it slows new household formation, which also makes the age where people typically get married go up, the age people have their first child goes up, fertility rates go down,” Ullrich said. “People buy fewer houses. It impacts local schools. It’s silly to think about if you’re not an economist, but it has much more far-reaching economic implications than just thinking, oh, there’s just a bunch of adults living at home.”
When people stay at home longer or have roommates at older ages, it delays the ages at which they marry, have children, buy homes, and more. This demographic shift also impacts housing markets, school enrollment, and retirement ages.
A ripple effect through the economy
She said the pattern aligns with what has separately been reported about housing affordability, inflation, and the difficulty young adults are having landing a first job. “Given what you see written about housing affordability and current inflation rates, but also the difficulty young adults are having in finding a first job, it’s not surprising to see that number go up.”
The financial-support trend isn’t confined to the youngest adults. Ullrich pointed to a separate figure in the same survey: 26% of adults ages 30 to 44 also reported receiving financial help from outside their household. “It’s not just these much younger adults,” she said. “That percentage is creeping upwards, even over what we think of as the average just-out-of-college fresh adult.” The pattern echoes what Fortune found in a separate Wells Fargo survey this year, where 64% of parents with Gen Z children ages 18 to 28 said their kids still rely on them financially, with support concentrated in essentials like rent and cell phone bills rather than discretionary spending.
Ullrich cautioned that the survey’s wording may be inflating the “living at home” figure for one group in particular: college students. The SHED survey asks respondents simply whether their adult children, age 18 or older, live with them.
“I have a son in college who lives in Virginia most of the year, and I’m thinking, would I say yes or no about him?” Ullrich questioned. “Right now he’s here, so if somebody asked me, I’d probably say yes, but in September I’d probably say no. I do wonder a little bit about how college-age kids are counted.” She noted the underlying trend is real regardless. “This has been going up over time, there’s no doubt about that.”
The same survey also tracks how financially comfortable households say they feel. According to FRED’s series on the measure, the share of households reporting they were “doing okay” or “living comfortably” spiked to 78% in 2021, which Ullrich attributes to pandemic-era stimulus payments and enhanced unemployment benefits rather than any underlying strength. It has held at 72-73% every year since. “I wouldn’t take that as a real signal. To me that’s an outlier,” she said. “What’s actually more amazing to me is that it hasn’t gone down more, given how high inflation has been.”
She added that, in the survey, the decline in financial comfort is concentrated among those without a high school diploma, while those with a diploma have held roughly steady since 2016. This is evidence, she said, of a K-shaped economy playing out generationally as well as by income.
Ullrich said this broader trend will structurally alter the economy and is likely to show up for years in migration patterns and lifetime earnings as much as in survey data. Young adults who expected to move to major cities for their first jobs are instead staying closer to home while they search, something she said could be financially sound for individual families even as it reshapes broader economic patterns.
“These decisions at the micro level just impact households and family decisions, but at the macro level they do impact more things: home buying, fertility rates, all the things we talked about. When you have that larger percentage living at home, you will see some of those impacts.”