经历了波斯湾地区密集的新一轮交火,投资者依然保持克制。7月12日晚间,美国股指期货小幅下跌,油价虽上涨却并未出现飙升。
道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌100点,跌幅0.19%;标普500指数期货下跌0.27%;纳斯达克期货下跌0.48%。
美国原油期货上涨3.2%,至每桶73.70美元;布伦特原油同样上涨3.2%,至每桶78.45美元。黄金价格下跌0.7%,至每盎司4,085美元。
Rapidan Energy创始人兼总裁鲍勃·麦克纳利接受CNN采访表示,多年来原油市场“一直忽视地缘政治风险”,还表示上周日油价上涨“幅度有限”。
他解释说,交易员普遍认为霍尔木兹海峡冲突最严峻的阶段已经过去,还认为海湾航运通行量以及石油产量开始恢复。他补充道,4月以来股市已不怎么关注伊朗局势。
“当下市场对石油问题弥漫着过度乐观情绪和过度自信,”这位白宫前能源顾问麦克纳利说道。
7月12日晚间,美国中央司令部宣布对伊朗发动新一轮打击,目标是“削弱其袭击正常通过霍尔木兹海峡的平民海员和商船的能力”。
这是过去一周内的第五轮打击,也是过去24小时内第三轮,表明军事行动节奏正在加快。
最新一轮打击发起前,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队袭击了一艘商船,随后美军拦截了伊朗发射的导弹和无人机。
上周日早些时候,美军已针对伊朗导弹和防空系统以及海峡周边的小型船只进行了“数次打击”。
美军中央司令部称,在此之前美军在三轮打击中摧毁了300个目标,仅上周六(7月11日)就轰炸了140个目标,包括导弹和无人机发射场、海军设施、弹药储存设施、通信网络以及沿海监视设施等。
伊朗方面一边持续对商船发动袭击,一边向巴林、科威特、卡塔尔、约旦和阿曼等海湾阿拉伯邻国发射了多轮导弹。
伊朗辩称,上个月与美国签署的谅解备忘录赋予了其监管船舶通行的权限,没做到沿伊朗海岸官方航道通行的船只都将受到打击。
但美方要求必须全面恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由,另辟了一条紧贴阿曼海岸的替代航道。5月初以来,美军已护送800多艘商船和4亿桶原油安全通过海峡。
伊朗掌握着瘫痪霍尔木兹海峡交通这一核心筹码,双方对峙引发的武装冲突日益激烈。
坎贝尔大学军(Campbell University)事与海事史教授萨尔·默科利亚诺认为,近期的交火是危险信号,所谓停火协议不过是“幌子”。
“这种表面缓和的状态已持续很久,”他在7月12日说道,“我担心的是,我们正陷入一场未正式宣战的海战之中,而这种海战极易升级。”(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
经历了波斯湾地区密集的新一轮交火,投资者依然保持克制。7月12日晚间,美国股指期货小幅下跌,油价虽上涨却并未出现飙升。
道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌100点,跌幅0.19%;标普500指数期货下跌0.27%;纳斯达克期货下跌0.48%。
美国原油期货上涨3.2%,至每桶73.70美元;布伦特原油同样上涨3.2%,至每桶78.45美元。黄金价格下跌0.7%,至每盎司4,085美元。
Rapidan Energy创始人兼总裁鲍勃·麦克纳利接受CNN采访表示,多年来原油市场“一直忽视地缘政治风险”,还表示上周日油价上涨“幅度有限”。
他解释说,交易员普遍认为霍尔木兹海峡冲突最严峻的阶段已经过去,还认为海湾航运通行量以及石油产量开始恢复。他补充道,4月以来股市已不怎么关注伊朗局势。
“当下市场对石油问题弥漫着过度乐观情绪和过度自信,”这位白宫前能源顾问麦克纳利说道。
7月12日晚间,美国中央司令部宣布对伊朗发动新一轮打击,目标是“削弱其袭击正常通过霍尔木兹海峡的平民海员和商船的能力”。
这是过去一周内的第五轮打击,也是过去24小时内第三轮,表明军事行动节奏正在加快。
最新一轮打击发起前,伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队袭击了一艘商船,随后美军拦截了伊朗发射的导弹和无人机。
上周日早些时候,美军已针对伊朗导弹和防空系统以及海峡周边的小型船只进行了“数次打击”。
美军中央司令部称,在此之前美军在三轮打击中摧毁了300个目标,仅上周六(7月11日)就轰炸了140个目标,包括导弹和无人机发射场、海军设施、弹药储存设施、通信网络以及沿海监视设施等。
伊朗方面一边持续对商船发动袭击,一边向巴林、科威特、卡塔尔、约旦和阿曼等海湾阿拉伯邻国发射了多轮导弹。
伊朗辩称,上个月与美国签署的谅解备忘录赋予了其监管船舶通行的权限,没做到沿伊朗海岸官方航道通行的船只都将受到打击。
但美方要求必须全面恢复霍尔木兹海峡的航行自由,另辟了一条紧贴阿曼海岸的替代航道。5月初以来,美军已护送800多艘商船和4亿桶原油安全通过海峡。
伊朗掌握着瘫痪霍尔木兹海峡交通这一核心筹码,双方对峙引发的武装冲突日益激烈。
坎贝尔大学军(Campbell University)事与海事史教授萨尔·默科利亚诺认为,近期的交火是危险信号,所谓停火协议不过是“幌子”。
“这种表面缓和的状态已持续很久,”他在7月12日说道,“我担心的是,我们正陷入一场未正式宣战的海战之中,而这种海战极易升级。”(财富中文网)
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
U.S. stock futures dipped late Sunday while oil prices rose, but didn’t spike, as investors kept their cool after a weekend packed with new fighting in the Persian Gulf.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones industrial average fell 100 points, or 0.19%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.27%, and Nasdaq futures lost 0.48%.
U.S. oil futures rose 3.2% to $73.70 a barrel, while Brent crude also climbed 3.2% to $78.45. Gold dropped 0.7% to $4,085 per ounce.
Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy, told CNN that crude oil markets have been “blowing off this geopolitical risk for years” and described Sunday’s rise in prices as “pretty tame.”
Traders are confident that the worst of the Hormuz conflict is over and see the beginnings of a recovery in ship crossings as well as oil production around the Gulf, he explained, adding that the stock market hasn’t cared about Iran since April.
“So there’s a lot of complacency, a lot of confidence, built into the market right now about oil,” McNally, a former White House energy adviser, said.
On Sunday evening, U.S. Central Command announced yet another set of strikes on Iran, aimed at “degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz.”
It marked the fifth round of attacks in the past week and the third over the last 24 hours, signaling that the operational tempo is quickening.
The latest wave came after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted a commercial ship, prompting U.S. forces to intercept an Iranian missile and drone.
Earlier on Sunday, the U.S. conducted a “few strikes” on Iranian missile and air-defense systems as well as small boats around the strait.
Before then, U.S. forces had already hit 300 targets over three prior rounds, with Saturday alone seeing 140 targets bombed, including missile and drone sites, naval capabilities, ammunition storage facilities, communication networks, and coastal surveillance locations, Central Command said.
For its part, Iran has paired its attacks on commercial ships with salvos against its Gulf Arab neighbors, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan and Oman.
Iran has argued that the memorandum of understanding signed with the U.S. last month gives it authority to regulate ship traffic and has attacked ships that are not using a regime-backed corridor that runs along the Iranian coast.
But the U.S. has demanded that freedom of navigation in Hormuz must be fully restored and established an alternate corridor that hugs Oman’s coast. Since early May, U.S. forces have helped more than 800 commercial vessels and 400 million barrels of crude oil transit the strait.
The standoff has fueled increasingly violent skirmishes as Iran seeks to preserve its main source of leverage, namely the ability to effectively shut down Hormuz traffic.
For Sal Mercogliano, a Campbell University professor who specializes in military and maritime history, the recent combat was an ominous sign, as he called the ceasefire a “facade.”
“And it’s been a facade for quite a while,” he said on a YouTube post on Sunday. “And one of the things I fear is that we’re finding ourselves in this undeclared naval war. And an undeclared naval war can escalate.”