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全球能源市场如何构建“石油界亚马逊”物流体系,遏制油价螺旋式上涨

Jordan Blum
2026-07-13

中国成为能源市场的稳定器。

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2026年5月7日,悬挂香港特别行政区区旗的原油油轮“新卡罗拉号”停靠加利福尼亚州长滩港马拉松石油(Marathon Petroleum)码头卸货。图片来源:Tim Rue/Bloomberg via Getty Images

伊朗战争期间,企业和政府依托一套融合数字、卫星技术创新的“即时”交付系统,降低了原油储备需求,成功避免能源价格像市场此前担忧的那样飙升。

能源投资公司PPHB的董事总经理兼资深石油分析师吉姆·威克伦德(Jim Wicklund)称其为“石油界的亚马逊”,并将能源行业的运作机制与这家电商巨头领先的库存与物流管控能力相类比。

尽管特朗普总统上周三宣布美伊停火协议“终结”,两国再度爆发军事冲突,但美国基准原油价格仅上涨约5%,至每桶74美元,远低于5月中旬112美元的高点。

能源交易商或将最新袭击与口头对峙视作谈判拉锯中的短期波动,但全球能源物流极强的适应能力令他们备受鼓舞。即便遭遇现代史上最严重的全球能源冲击——霍尔木兹海峡近乎停航、全球近两成原油与液化天然气供应中断,能源物流体系仍平稳运转。

“回溯到20世纪70年代石油危机时期,人们根本无从掌握原油的存放位置与运输动态,”威克伦德对《财富》杂志表示,“如今,我只需打开终端系统,就能查到海上每一艘满载原油的油轮的详细信息:所属主体、装载品类,以及该联系谁才能让油轮改道驶向我方。因此,过去几年里,库存对油价的影响已远不如从前。”

他补充道:“库存与油价的相关度已从高位回落,如今几乎毫无关联。我不再像过去那样依赖实物库存,而是可以立即在‘石油界的亚马逊’上下单,采购在海上运输的原油货盘。”

物流体系稳住油价的另一关键举措,是特朗普政府暂时豁免已实施106年的《琼斯法案》。该法案规定,往返美国港口的货运船舶必须为美国本土制造、悬挂美国国旗、由美国船员运营,这导致美国港口间运输原油和成品油的船舶数量减少。

例如,豁免政策落地后,更多船舶得以从美国墨西哥湾沿岸运载燃油,经巴拿马运河北上驶往加州,缓解当地供应缺口——近几个月加州已有多家炼油厂陆续关停。

中国因素

尽管商业原油库存的影响力已不复往昔,但美国,尤其是中国的国家战略储备发挥了至关重要的作用。油价未如预期般飙升的另一个主要原因,是中国将石油储备规模扩充至历史峰值,且在战争爆发后大幅削减进口量。

战争爆发前,中国原油日进口量超1150万桶。到6月,中国日进口量骤降至700万桶以下,相当于全球原油日需求减少近500万桶。尽管中国未披露过多细节,但美国政府估算,在战争爆发前,中国的石油储备已增至约14亿桶,这是中国多年来持续推进战略储备建设的成果。

研究与投资公司Veriten的能源宏观与政策合伙人阿琼·穆尔蒂(Arjun Murti)表示:“中国成为能源市场的稳定器,这是前所未有的。我们从未猜到或预测到中国会大幅削减原油进口,其影响十分深远。”

美国战略石油储备目前处于1983年以来的最低水平,但仍持有超3亿桶原油——截至7月3日为3.19亿桶——较战争爆发初期的4.15亿桶有所下降。

分析师指出,由于特朗普希望维持燃油价格低位,美国在今年中期选举前启动战略石油储备补库的可能性极低。数月来,特朗普批准释放1.72亿桶储备原油,因此在明年启动补库前,储备规模仍可能进一步下滑。

威克伦德表示,能源市场展现出的韧性,让那些预言油价将创下每桶200美元历史新高的“末日论者”哑口无言。

尽管从未预判过如此极端的油价涨幅,但威克伦德仍对6月末至7月油价的暴跌感到“意外”。

“我开始相信这一点了,”他说,“与其试图弄清楚市场走势为何偏离预判,不如反思自身为何判断失误。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

伊朗战争期间,企业和政府依托一套融合数字、卫星技术创新的“即时”交付系统,降低了原油储备需求,成功避免能源价格像市场此前担忧的那样飙升。

能源投资公司PPHB的董事总经理兼资深石油分析师吉姆·威克伦德(Jim Wicklund)称其为“石油界的亚马逊”,并将能源行业的运作机制与这家电商巨头领先的库存与物流管控能力相类比。

尽管特朗普总统上周三宣布美伊停火协议“终结”,两国再度爆发军事冲突,但美国基准原油价格仅上涨约5%,至每桶74美元,远低于5月中旬112美元的高点。

能源交易商或将最新袭击与口头对峙视作谈判拉锯中的短期波动,但全球能源物流极强的适应能力令他们备受鼓舞。即便遭遇现代史上最严重的全球能源冲击——霍尔木兹海峡近乎停航、全球近两成原油与液化天然气供应中断,能源物流体系仍平稳运转。

“回溯到20世纪70年代石油危机时期,人们根本无从掌握原油的存放位置与运输动态,”威克伦德对《财富》杂志表示,“如今,我只需打开终端系统,就能查到海上每一艘满载原油的油轮的详细信息:所属主体、装载品类,以及该联系谁才能让油轮改道驶向我方。因此,过去几年里,库存对油价的影响已远不如从前。”

他补充道:“库存与油价的相关度已从高位回落,如今几乎毫无关联。我不再像过去那样依赖实物库存,而是可以立即在‘石油界的亚马逊’上下单,采购在海上运输的原油货盘。”

物流体系稳住油价的另一关键举措,是特朗普政府暂时豁免已实施106年的《琼斯法案》。该法案规定,往返美国港口的货运船舶必须为美国本土制造、悬挂美国国旗、由美国船员运营,这导致美国港口间运输原油和成品油的船舶数量减少。

例如,豁免政策落地后,更多船舶得以从美国墨西哥湾沿岸运载燃油,经巴拿马运河北上驶往加州,缓解当地供应缺口——近几个月加州已有多家炼油厂陆续关停。

中国因素

尽管商业原油库存的影响力已不复往昔,但美国,尤其是中国的国家战略储备发挥了至关重要的作用。油价未如预期般飙升的另一个主要原因,是中国将石油储备规模扩充至历史峰值,且在战争爆发后大幅削减进口量。

战争爆发前,中国原油日进口量超1150万桶。到6月,中国日进口量骤降至700万桶以下,相当于全球原油日需求减少近500万桶。尽管中国未披露过多细节,但美国政府估算,在战争爆发前,中国的石油储备已增至约14亿桶,这是中国多年来持续推进战略储备建设的成果。

研究与投资公司Veriten的能源宏观与政策合伙人阿琼·穆尔蒂(Arjun Murti)表示:“中国成为能源市场的稳定器,这是前所未有的。我们从未猜到或预测到中国会大幅削减原油进口,其影响十分深远。”

美国战略石油储备目前处于1983年以来的最低水平,但仍持有超3亿桶原油——截至7月3日为3.19亿桶——较战争爆发初期的4.15亿桶有所下降。

分析师指出,由于特朗普希望维持燃油价格低位,美国在今年中期选举前启动战略石油储备补库的可能性极低。数月来,特朗普批准释放1.72亿桶储备原油,因此在明年启动补库前,储备规模仍可能进一步下滑。

威克伦德表示,能源市场展现出的韧性,让那些预言油价将创下每桶200美元历史新高的“末日论者”哑口无言。

尽管从未预判过如此极端的油价涨幅,但威克伦德仍对6月末至7月油价的暴跌感到“意外”。

“我开始相信这一点了,”他说,“与其试图弄清楚市场走势为何偏离预判,不如反思自身为何判断失误。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

Businesses and governments managed to keep energy prices from skyrocketing as much as feared during the Iran war by leaning into a “just-in-time” delivery system that harnesses innovations in digital and satellite technology and that reduces the need to stockpile barrels of oil.

Call it the “Amazon of oil,” said Jim Wicklund, a veteran oil analyst and managing director at the PPHB energy investment firm, comparing energy industry dynamics to the ecommerce giant’s famous mastery of inventory and logistics.

Even with President Trump declaring the Iran ceasefire “over” on Wednesday amid a fresh exchange of military strikes, the U.S. benchmark for crude prices still only spiked about 5% to $74 per barrel—way below the mid-May high of $112.

While energy traders may see the latest attacks and verbal barbs as dips along the negotiation rollercoaster, they’ve also been encouraged by the adaptability of global energy logistics, even amid the greatest global energy shock of the modern age when the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz temporarily cut off almost 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.

“When you go back to the 1970s when we had the oil shocks, you had no way of knowing what oil was where and what it was doing,” Wicklund told Fortune. “Today, I can hit my terminal and find every tanker full of oil on the ocean, who owns it, what’s in it, and who to call to get it diverted to me. So, inventories have not meant nearly as much to oil prices here in the last few years as they used to.

“The correlation between inventories and oil price has been dropping from a high correlation to almost no correlation today. I don’t need physical inventories like I used to. I can order immediately off the Amazon of oil and buy cargoes on the water,” he said.

Another saving grace for logistics was the Trump administration’s decision to temporarily waive the 106-year-old Jones Act, which requires cargo ships moving between U.S. ports to be U.S. built, flagged, and manned, reducing the number of vessels available to move crude oil and refined products between domestic ports.

The waiver allowed more ships, for instance, to move fuel from the U.S. Gulf Coast through the Panama Canal and up to California, which has dealt with newly shuttered refineries in recent months, to help alleviate shortfalls.

The China factor

While large commercial oil inventories haven’t meant as much as they once did, the national strategic reserves of the U.S. and especially China have proven pivotal. The other major reason oil prices didn’t rise as high as feared is because China built up its storage stockpiles to all-time highs and dramatically cut down on its imports after the war began.

Before the war began, China imported more than 11.5 million barrels per day. By June, China’s imports plunged below 7 million barrels daily, effectively lowering global oil demand by almost 5 million barrels per day. Although China doesn’t reveal many details, the U.S. government estimates China’s oil reserves had risen to about 1.4 billion barrels before the war began—the product of a yearslong emphasis on building up strategic stockpiles.

“China as a source of moderation on energy is something that is for sure new,” said Arjun Murti, energy macro and policy partner at the Veriten research and investment firm. “We did not guess or predict that China would reduce the oil imports by such a massive amount, which had such a huge impact.”

Likewise, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is now at its lowest level since 1983, but it still holds more than 300 million barrels of crude—319 million barrels as of July 3—which is down from 415 million barrels at the beginning of the war.

And because Trump wants to keep fuel prices lower, there’s little chance the U.S. starts replenishing its strategic reserves before the midterm elections this year, analysts said. Trump has authorized the overall release of 172 million barrels over several months, so supplies could still dip much lower before they’re built back up maybe beginning next year.

The resiliency of the energy markets has quieted the “doomsdayers” who predicted record highs of $200 per barrel oil, Wicklund said.

While he never projected such high spikes, Wicklund was “surprised” oil prices have fallen as much as they have in late June and July.

“I’m starting to believe,” he said. “Instead of trying to figure out why the market is wrong, figure out why you’re wrong.”

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