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知名投资人格兰瑟姆评价SpaceX:史上最疯狂IPO,终将沦为后世笑柄

Eleanor Pringle
2026-07-13

这家火箭公司的发展前景已然影响着全球数百万股民的持仓。

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2023年8月17日(星期四),GMO LLC联合创始人兼首席投资策略师杰里米·格兰瑟姆(Jeremy Grantham)在美国马萨诸塞州波士顿接受《彭博财富:大卫·鲁宾斯坦访谈》节目采访。图片来源:Vanessa Leroy/Bloomberg - Getty Images

随着埃隆·马斯克旗下的SpaceX正式纳入纳斯达克100指数,这家火箭公司的发展前景已然影响着全球数百万股民的持仓(无论直接还是间接)。

但纳入纳斯达克指数并未说服一众批评者,他们对这家公司的远大目标深表质疑。在上市招股说明书中,SpaceX称其使命是“构建使生命成为多行星物种所需的系统和技术,理解宇宙的真实本质,并将意识之光延伸至星辰”。

投资巨头GMO的联合创始人杰里米·格兰瑟姆表示,在未来的投资者眼中,此类表述终将沦为笑柄。诚然,这位身家亿万的英国投资人向来以怀疑论调著称:他自称“永久空头”,还曾警告人工智能的影响将引发“市场暴跌、哀鸿遍野”。

因此,他对SpaceX(字面意义上)“脱离现实”的宏大愿景不以为然,也就不足为奇了。格兰瑟姆在今日上午发布的晨星(Morningstar)《长远视角》(The Long View)播客节目中表示:“所有人都争相劝你参与人类史上最疯狂的首次公开募股。50年后,人们会讲述、撰写关于SpaceX的故事、引用招股说明书中的段落,而你只会觉得,这一切荒唐可笑。”

自SpaceX上市以来,就连最看涨的投资者也感受到了现实的冲击。截至发稿时,SpaceX股价过去一个月下跌了7%,徘徊在每股150美元左右,仅略高于其上市目标价135美元。

华尔街对SpaceX的股价上行空间看法不一,但普遍看好其长期潜力:例如,据报摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)给出300美元的目标价;《财富》获取的一份报告显示,高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师埃里克·谢里丹(Eric Sheridan)及其团队认为其目标价更接近205美元。

分析师整体情绪较为乐观。摩根大通给出了225美元的目标价,并补充称,埃隆·马斯克提出的到2031年实现1万亿美元营收目标具备可行性,“但这需要在极其紧迫的时间表内,将所有规划落实到位。”

这份由道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)、塞思·赛夫曼(Seth Seifman)、塞巴斯蒂亚诺·佩蒂(Sebastiano Petti)与理查德·崔(Richard Choe)共同撰写的报告也点出了若干隐忧,其中之一便是“埃隆·马斯克无可替代”。他们写道,马斯克“超乎寻常的影响力与控制权(持有82%的投票权),是SpaceX企业文化、发展愿景与运营战略的核心,我们认为他的领导力是公司成功的核心驱动力,但权力高度集中也会带来治理隐患,企业将面临领导人交接的风险。”

格兰瑟姆表示,他对华尔街银行建议客户买入SpaceX感到困惑。他补充道:“真相终将浮出水面,这场IPO注定会成为我回顾市场历史时极为看重的里程碑式事件。顺带一提,如果它没有崩盘,那才称得上出人意料,因为这需要在人工智能领域取得重大进展,彻底颠覆我们的生活方式。”

即便支撑其高估值的宏大设想最终得以实现,那时的世界也将“面目全非”,“人类能不被智能机器支配,已是万幸”。

格兰瑟姆补充道,这种“相当恐怖”的前景虽比股价崩盘的可能性要小,“但无论哪种结局,都会在历史上留下浓墨重彩的一笔”。

《财富》杂志已联系SpaceX寻求置评。

“所有跟踪纳斯达克相关指数的基金,都不得不配置这只股票”

上月,纳斯达克宣布推出针对老牌企业的快速纳入新规,以适配不断变化的IPO市场环境。该指数机构表示:“当大型企业在上市前已私有化运营十年或更久时,若指数需等待数月才能将其纳入,就无法全面反映其所追踪市场的真实情况。”

对大型IPO企业启用快速纳入机制,有助于“让指数更好地覆盖所有对经济与股市具有重要意义的上市公司”。

格兰瑟姆认为,这一规则直接影响了SpaceX的股价走势:“这意味着,所有跟踪纳斯达克相关指数的基金,都必须被动配置这只股票。因此市场需求将远大于股票供给。”

“在供需关系的作用下,股价很难不上涨,甚至可能出现大幅拉升。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

随着埃隆·马斯克旗下的SpaceX正式纳入纳斯达克100指数,这家火箭公司的发展前景已然影响着全球数百万股民的持仓(无论直接还是间接)。

但纳入纳斯达克指数并未说服一众批评者,他们对这家公司的远大目标深表质疑。在上市招股说明书中,SpaceX称其使命是“构建使生命成为多行星物种所需的系统和技术,理解宇宙的真实本质,并将意识之光延伸至星辰”。

投资巨头GMO的联合创始人杰里米·格兰瑟姆表示,在未来的投资者眼中,此类表述终将沦为笑柄。诚然,这位身家亿万的英国投资人向来以怀疑论调著称:他自称“永久空头”,还曾警告人工智能的影响将引发“市场暴跌、哀鸿遍野”。

因此,他对SpaceX(字面意义上)“脱离现实”的宏大愿景不以为然,也就不足为奇了。格兰瑟姆在今日上午发布的晨星(Morningstar)《长远视角》(The Long View)播客节目中表示:“所有人都争相劝你参与人类史上最疯狂的首次公开募股。50年后,人们会讲述、撰写关于SpaceX的故事、引用招股说明书中的段落,而你只会觉得,这一切荒唐可笑。”

自SpaceX上市以来,就连最看涨的投资者也感受到了现实的冲击。截至发稿时,SpaceX股价过去一个月下跌了7%,徘徊在每股150美元左右,仅略高于其上市目标价135美元。

华尔街对SpaceX的股价上行空间看法不一,但普遍看好其长期潜力:例如,据报摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)给出300美元的目标价;《财富》获取的一份报告显示,高盛(Goldman Sachs)分析师埃里克·谢里丹(Eric Sheridan)及其团队认为其目标价更接近205美元。

分析师整体情绪较为乐观。摩根大通给出了225美元的目标价,并补充称,埃隆·马斯克提出的到2031年实现1万亿美元营收目标具备可行性,“但这需要在极其紧迫的时间表内,将所有规划落实到位。”

这份由道格·安穆斯(Doug Anmuth)、塞思·赛夫曼(Seth Seifman)、塞巴斯蒂亚诺·佩蒂(Sebastiano Petti)与理查德·崔(Richard Choe)共同撰写的报告也点出了若干隐忧,其中之一便是“埃隆·马斯克无可替代”。他们写道,马斯克“超乎寻常的影响力与控制权(持有82%的投票权),是SpaceX企业文化、发展愿景与运营战略的核心,我们认为他的领导力是公司成功的核心驱动力,但权力高度集中也会带来治理隐患,企业将面临领导人交接的风险。”

格兰瑟姆表示,他对华尔街银行建议客户买入SpaceX感到困惑。他补充道:“真相终将浮出水面,这场IPO注定会成为我回顾市场历史时极为看重的里程碑式事件。顺带一提,如果它没有崩盘,那才称得上出人意料,因为这需要在人工智能领域取得重大进展,彻底颠覆我们的生活方式。”

即便支撑其高估值的宏大设想最终得以实现,那时的世界也将“面目全非”,“人类能不被智能机器支配,已是万幸”。

格兰瑟姆补充道,这种“相当恐怖”的前景虽比股价崩盘的可能性要小,“但无论哪种结局,都会在历史上留下浓墨重彩的一笔”。

《财富》杂志已联系SpaceX寻求置评。

“所有跟踪纳斯达克相关指数的基金,都不得不配置这只股票”

上月,纳斯达克宣布推出针对老牌企业的快速纳入新规,以适配不断变化的IPO市场环境。该指数机构表示:“当大型企业在上市前已私有化运营十年或更久时,若指数需等待数月才能将其纳入,就无法全面反映其所追踪市场的真实情况。”

对大型IPO企业启用快速纳入机制,有助于“让指数更好地覆盖所有对经济与股市具有重要意义的上市公司”。

格兰瑟姆认为,这一规则直接影响了SpaceX的股价走势:“这意味着,所有跟踪纳斯达克相关指数的基金,都必须被动配置这只股票。因此市场需求将远大于股票供给。”

“在供需关系的作用下,股价很难不上涨,甚至可能出现大幅拉升。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

With Elon Musk’s SpaceX now embedded in the Nasdaq 100, the prospects of the rocket company have–directly or indirectly–now slipped into the stock portfolios of millions of people around the globe.

But joining the Nasdaq index has done little to convince critics, who are dubious about the lofty aims of the company. In the prospectus ahead of its offering, SpaceX said its goal is “to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multiplanetary, to understand the true nature of the universe, and to extend the light of consciousness to the stars.”

Such statements will be laughable to investors of the future, says Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of investment giant GMO. Admittedly, the billionaire British investor is known for his skepticism: He’s a self-professed “permabear” and has warned AI’s impact will result in “blood in the streets.”

It is perhaps no surprise, then, that he is unimpressed by the (literally) out-of-this-world intentions of SpaceX. “Everyone’s lining up to tell you to buy the craziest IPO in the history of man,” Grantham told Morningstar’s The Long View podcast in an episode released this morning, “In 50 years, they’ll be telling and writing stories about SpaceX, and they’ll be quoting you paragraphs from the prospectus, and you will be laughing at it.”

Even the most bullish of investors might be feeling a reality check since SpaceX launched. At the time of writing, SpaceX is down 7% over the past month, hovering at around $150 a share—only slightly ahead of the $135 it targeted at launch.

Wall Street is split on how high SpaceX can fly, though they generally agree it will soar: Morgan Stanley, for example, has reportedly set the price target at $300, while Goldman Sachs’s Eric Sheridan and team wrote in a note seen by Fortune that they see it closer to $205.

Sentiments among analysts are, generally, positive. J.P. Morgan wrote that its target is $225 , adding it believes Elon Musk’s goal of reaching $1 trillion of revenue by 2031 is possible “but requires strong execution across an ambitious timeline.”

The note authored by Doug Anmuth, Seth Seifman, Sebastiano Petti, and Richard Choe highlighted some concerns, one of them being the fact that there’s “only one Elon.” They wrote that Musk’s “outsized influence and control (82% voting power) is central to SpaceX’s culture, vision, and operational strategy, and we believe his leadership has been a defining driver of the company’s success. At the same time, that concentration of control raises governance considerations and exposes the company to leadership-transition risk.”

Grantham said he was baffled by Wall Street banks’ recommendations to buy SpaceX for their clients. He added: “In the end, the reality will come out, and this will turn out to be, of course, one of the landmark historical events that I so value in history looking back. It will be amazing, by the way, if it doesn’t collapse, because it will need such massive developments on AI that our entire lives are totally different.”

Even if the justification for a higher price becomes a reality, the world will be a “strange one” and “we’ll be lucky not to be bossed around by our automaton friends.”

This “rather horrific” outlook is less likely than a crash, Grantham adds, “though both ways it will be historically notable.”

Fortune has contacted SpaceX for comment.

“There’ll be a lot of people who have to buy it for any index that is Nasdaq-y”

Last month, Nasdaq announced it was launching new fast-track rules for older companies to reflect the changing IPO market. “When large companies stay private for a decade or more before going public, indexes that wait months to add them have less than a full picture of the market they track,” the index said.

Fast-tracking large IPOs helps “indexes better represent all the public companies that matter to the economy and the stock market,” it said.

This has had a direct impact on SpaceX’s performance, insists Grantham: “What that means is there’ll be a lot of people who have to buy it for any index that is Nasdaq-y. So there’ll be much more demand than there are sellers.

“So supply and demand being what it is, it’s hard to imagine the price won’t go up, and perhaps it will go up a lot.”

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