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《大空头》原型再出手,最新做空目标因AI热潮暴涨

伯里表示,卡特彼勒过去一年股价累计飙升逾100%,当前估值已经偏高。

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因《大空头》(The Big Short)而闻名的投资人迈克尔·伯里又锁定了一个新的做空目标——受AI基础设施建设热潮推动而股价大涨的重型机械巨头卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)。

曾准确预测2008年美国次贷危机、并为投资者赚取数亿美元收益的前对冲基金经理伯里表示,卡特彼勒过去一年股价累计飙升逾100%,当前估值已经偏高。

伯里在Substack平台发文称:“卡特彼勒一下子就引起了我的注意。我以前从未做空过卡特彼勒,过去我做多这只股票,一直给我带来丰厚的回报。”

但今时不同往日。伯里表示,他于上周二以每股1,060.98美元的价格建立了卡特彼勒的空头头寸。到上周三收盘,卡特彼勒股价已累计下跌近7%;截至上周四,盘中一度再跌约4%,跌至约949美元,创下6月中旬以来最低水平。

不过,并非所有人都认同伯里的判断。长期跟踪卡特彼勒的Freedom Broker高级分析师谢尔盖·格里尼亚诺夫通过邮件对《财富》杂志表示,伯里的做空操作几乎不会对卡特彼勒股价产生任何影响。他表示,这位著名投资者忽略了一点:卡特彼勒股价上涨,并非只是因为AI概念受到市场追捧。

格里尼亚诺夫对《财富》杂志表示,事实上,投资者之所以持续看好卡特彼勒,是因为公司正受益于基础设施投资领域发生的根本性转变。

他对《财富》杂志表示:“一个结构性主题正在成型。”他指出,随着AI数据中心纷纷寻找替代老旧电网的供电方案,以满足不断攀升的用电需求,市场对现场发电系统的需求持续攀升。

随着开发商建设的AI数据中心园区规模越来越大,为确保可靠供电,他们越来越倾向于采购卡特彼勒销售的柴油和天然气发电系统。格里尼亚诺夫认为,卡特彼勒在这一领域的布局,使其有望从这笔资本支出中获得更大份额。

AI热潮不仅推动英伟达(Nvidia)等芯片制造商股价屡创新高,还带动了另外一批企业的股价上涨。随着超大规模云厂商和开发商大举建设数据中心,这些企业也有望从中受益。其中,专注于发电设备的GE Vernova公司,以及提供先进制冷系统的俄亥俄州公司维谛技术(Vertiv),都成为投资者押注AI革命、又不直接投资芯片股的热门选择。今年年初至今,GE Vernova股价已上涨逾60%,维谛技术同期涨幅达70%。

不过,投资者正砸下真金白银,押注卡特彼勒会是最大的受益者之一。该公司股价过去12个月累计上涨约172%,仅今年截至伯里披露做空仓位之前,就已经上涨超过77%。伯里还指出,目前卡特彼勒的市销率(即衡量投资者愿意为公司每1美元营收支付多少价格的指标)已创下30年来最高水平。

正是这一轮大涨,让伯里认为卡特彼勒的股价已经被高估。不过,做空卡特彼勒也符合他对整个市场的一贯判断。他认为市场正滋生AI泡沫。今年5月,伯里曾表示,当前市场“让人想起1999年至2000年互联网泡沫破裂前最后几个月的状态”。除了做空卡特彼勒外,他还表示重新建立了对iShares半导体ETF(SOXX)的空头仓位。该ETF主要追踪半导体公司股票。此外,他还做空了特斯拉(Tesla)和英伟达。

当然,最终究竟是伯里还是格里尼亚诺夫的判断更准确,目前仍有待时间检验。

格里尼亚诺夫表示,卡特彼勒传统的重型机械销售和租赁业务依然稳健,经销商库存状况持续改善,零售市场需求仍然坚挺。他认为,传统业务的稳定表现,加上公司在AI电力基础设施领域不断加深布局,共同支撑了卡特彼勒目前的溢价估值。该公司今年第一季度的强劲业绩也印证了这一观点:当季销售额同比增长22%,达到174亿美元,大幅超过华尔街机构一致预期。

不过,格里尼亚诺夫也承认,卡特彼勒的高估值能否维系,最终仍取决于全球大型AI企业是否会继续大举投资新的数据中心和电力基础设施。

他表示,其所在机构给予卡特彼勒的目标价为910美元,这意味着“短期内股价存在回调空间”。如果超大规模云厂商迅速削减数据中心投资,那么目前围绕卡特彼勒形成的乐观情绪,也可能会快速降温。

格里尼亚诺夫表示:“如果我们看到超大规模云厂商的基本面出现恶化,尤其是现金流创造能力下降或债务负担加重,那么卡特彼勒目前的估值倍数或将迎来明显回落。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

因《大空头》(The Big Short)而闻名的投资人迈克尔·伯里又锁定了一个新的做空目标——受AI基础设施建设热潮推动而股价大涨的重型机械巨头卡特彼勒(Caterpillar)。

曾准确预测2008年美国次贷危机、并为投资者赚取数亿美元收益的前对冲基金经理伯里表示,卡特彼勒过去一年股价累计飙升逾100%,当前估值已经偏高。

伯里在Substack平台发文称:“卡特彼勒一下子就引起了我的注意。我以前从未做空过卡特彼勒,过去我做多这只股票,一直给我带来丰厚的回报。”

但今时不同往日。伯里表示,他于上周二以每股1,060.98美元的价格建立了卡特彼勒的空头头寸。到上周三收盘,卡特彼勒股价已累计下跌近7%;截至上周四,盘中一度再跌约4%,跌至约949美元,创下6月中旬以来最低水平。

不过,并非所有人都认同伯里的判断。长期跟踪卡特彼勒的Freedom Broker高级分析师谢尔盖·格里尼亚诺夫通过邮件对《财富》杂志表示,伯里的做空操作几乎不会对卡特彼勒股价产生任何影响。他表示,这位著名投资者忽略了一点:卡特彼勒股价上涨,并非只是因为AI概念受到市场追捧。

格里尼亚诺夫对《财富》杂志表示,事实上,投资者之所以持续看好卡特彼勒,是因为公司正受益于基础设施投资领域发生的根本性转变。

他对《财富》杂志表示:“一个结构性主题正在成型。”他指出,随着AI数据中心纷纷寻找替代老旧电网的供电方案,以满足不断攀升的用电需求,市场对现场发电系统的需求持续攀升。

随着开发商建设的AI数据中心园区规模越来越大,为确保可靠供电,他们越来越倾向于采购卡特彼勒销售的柴油和天然气发电系统。格里尼亚诺夫认为,卡特彼勒在这一领域的布局,使其有望从这笔资本支出中获得更大份额。

AI热潮不仅推动英伟达(Nvidia)等芯片制造商股价屡创新高,还带动了另外一批企业的股价上涨。随着超大规模云厂商和开发商大举建设数据中心,这些企业也有望从中受益。其中,专注于发电设备的GE Vernova公司,以及提供先进制冷系统的俄亥俄州公司维谛技术(Vertiv),都成为投资者押注AI革命、又不直接投资芯片股的热门选择。今年年初至今,GE Vernova股价已上涨逾60%,维谛技术同期涨幅达70%。

不过,投资者正砸下真金白银,押注卡特彼勒会是最大的受益者之一。该公司股价过去12个月累计上涨约172%,仅今年截至伯里披露做空仓位之前,就已经上涨超过77%。伯里还指出,目前卡特彼勒的市销率(即衡量投资者愿意为公司每1美元营收支付多少价格的指标)已创下30年来最高水平。

正是这一轮大涨,让伯里认为卡特彼勒的股价已经被高估。不过,做空卡特彼勒也符合他对整个市场的一贯判断。他认为市场正滋生AI泡沫。今年5月,伯里曾表示,当前市场“让人想起1999年至2000年互联网泡沫破裂前最后几个月的状态”。除了做空卡特彼勒外,他还表示重新建立了对iShares半导体ETF(SOXX)的空头仓位。该ETF主要追踪半导体公司股票。此外,他还做空了特斯拉(Tesla)和英伟达。

当然,最终究竟是伯里还是格里尼亚诺夫的判断更准确,目前仍有待时间检验。

格里尼亚诺夫表示,卡特彼勒传统的重型机械销售和租赁业务依然稳健,经销商库存状况持续改善,零售市场需求仍然坚挺。他认为,传统业务的稳定表现,加上公司在AI电力基础设施领域不断加深布局,共同支撑了卡特彼勒目前的溢价估值。该公司今年第一季度的强劲业绩也印证了这一观点:当季销售额同比增长22%,达到174亿美元,大幅超过华尔街机构一致预期。

不过,格里尼亚诺夫也承认,卡特彼勒的高估值能否维系,最终仍取决于全球大型AI企业是否会继续大举投资新的数据中心和电力基础设施。

他表示,其所在机构给予卡特彼勒的目标价为910美元,这意味着“短期内股价存在回调空间”。如果超大规模云厂商迅速削减数据中心投资,那么目前围绕卡特彼勒形成的乐观情绪,也可能会快速降温。

格里尼亚诺夫表示:“如果我们看到超大规模云厂商的基本面出现恶化,尤其是现金流创造能力下降或债务负担加重,那么卡特彼勒目前的估值倍数或将迎来明显回落。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

Investor Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame has a new short target in his sights: Caterpillar, the heavy-machinery giant that has surged thanks to the AI infrastructure boom.

Burry, the former hedge fund manager who famously predicted the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and earned hundreds of millions of dollars for his investors in the process, said Caterpillar’s stock is now overvalued after a run-up that has seen its stock soar by more than 100% over the past year.

“Caterpillar jumped out at me,” Burry wrote in a Substack post this week. “I have never shorted Caterpillar. It has always done great for me on the long side in the past.”

Times have changed. The investor said he shorted Caterpillar at $1,060.98 per share Tuesday. By Wednesday, Caterpillar shares had closed down nearly 7%. As of Thursday, shares fell by as much as 4%, hitting their lowest point since the middle of June at about $949 per share.

Yet, not everyone agrees with Burry’s call. Sergey Glinyanov, a senior analyst at Freedom Broker who covers Caterpillar, told Fortune in an email that Burry’s short position isn’t likely to affect the stock at all. What the famed investor is missing is that Caterpillar’s share price isn’t surging because of AI hype, he said.

Glinyanov told Fortune that, in fact, investors are rewarding the company because it is benefiting from a fundamental shift in infrastructure spending.

“A structural theme is emerging,” Glinyanov told Fortune, pointing to a growing demand for on-site power systems, as AI data centers look for alternatives to an aging electrical grid that cannot always keep up with soaring energy needs.

As developers build bigger and bigger AI campuses, they are increasingly seeking out the diesel and natural gas generator power systems that Caterpillar sells to secure reliable power. The company’s positioning in this area sets it up to capture a larger share of that spending, Glinyanov argues.

As AI has propelled chipmakers like Nvidia to record highs, investors have also lifted the shares of other businesses that may benefit from hyperscalers and developers’ wave of spending as they scramble to build up data centers. These companies, including GE Vernova, which specializes in power generation, and Ohio-based Vertiv, which provides advanced cooling systems have emerged as a popular way to bet on the AI revolution without buying chipmakers directly. Shares of GE Vernova are up more than 60% year-to-date, while shares of Vertiv are up 70% over the same period.

Yet, investors are betting their money that Caterpillar will be among the biggest beneficiaries. The company’s stock had climbed about 172% over the past 12 months and more than 77% this year alone before Burry disclosed his position. Its price-to-sales ratio—a measure of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of revenue—is now at its highest level in three decades, he added.

It’s this run-up that has Burry betting the stock is overvalued. Yet his recent short against the company also builds on his broader belief that the market is in an AI bubble. In May, Burry said the market was “feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.” Along with his Caterpillar short, the investor also said he had refreshed his bet against the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX), which tracks semiconductor companies, and had taken positions against Tesla and Nvidia.

It’s unclear, of course, whether Burry or Glinyanov will ultimately be proven right.

Glinyanov said the company’s traditional business of selling and renting heavy machinery remains healthy, with dealer inventories improving and retail demand holding up. The combination of consistency in its traditional business and its growing exposure to AI-related power infrastructure has contributed to the stock’s premium value, he said. The company’ strong results from the first quarter, which saw sales jump 22% year-over-year to $17.4 billion and beat Wall Street expectations, adds to his argument.

Even so, Glinyanov allowed that Caterpillar’s premium valuation ultimately depends on the biggest AI companies continuing to spend aggressively on new data centers and power infrastructure.

His firm’s price target for the company is $910, indicating a “potential near term pullback,” he said. If hyperscalers quickly pull back on their massive data center investments, some of the optimism surrounding Caterpillar could fade just as quickly.

“Should we observe deterioration in hyperscalers’ fundamentals—particularly cash flow generation or debt burden—multiples could face a meaningful pullback,” he said.

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