
每年1月,David Protein创始人兼首席执行官彼得·拉哈尔总能预判市场趋势:生酮饮食、原始人饮食等各类新式减肥饮食轮番登场,市场行情“波动剧烈”。然而,今年情况有所不同。市面上并未出现新减肥饮食方案。
David Protein首席执行官对食品行业潮流了如指掌。在2024年推出David品牌蛋白棒和冰淇淋前,他曾创立RXBar,最终以6亿美元将该品牌出售给家乐氏(Kellogg)。
“我对食品行业趋势的总体看法是,由于GLP-1类药物的出现,减肥饮食风潮已经终结,”拉哈尔告诉《财富》杂志。“这类药物对食品消费趋势的影响极为深远。”
目前约有10%的美国民众使用过GLP-1受体激动剂。这类药物可延缓消化,用于治疗糖尿病与肥胖症,能调节胰岛素分泌、抑制食欲。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预测,今年该类药物市场规模将攀升至820亿美元。随着这类药物改变减重的底层逻辑,食品行业也将发生变革。
雀巢(Nestle)、康尼格拉(Conagra)等食品品牌纷纷推出专为GLP-1用药人群设计的产品,试图抢占这一新兴市场。但在拉哈尔看来,人们对食品消费趋势的认知已彻底转变,针对减肥人群设计的饮食方案不再受欢迎。
“没人再通过减肥饮食来减重或塑形了,大家都转而选择GLP-1类药物。”他说道。
受GLP‑1药物冲击,传统减重服务需求大幅萎缩,慧俪轻体(WeightWatchers)去年依据美国《破产法》第11章申请破产保护。不久后,该公司宣布与Wegovy(诺和诺德公司研发的口服减肥药)、Mounjaro(替尔泊肽注射液)等GLP-1药物生产商达成合作,同时拓展平台服务,为用药人群配备营养师和行为教练。
GLP-1类药物虽终结了减肥饮食风潮,却催生了新行业趋势。
“高蛋白产品之所以热销,根源在于GLP-1类药物的普及,”他说,“所以接下来会出现什么新趋势,真的很难预测。”
“蛋白质最大化”风潮兴起
事实上,David Protein正是搭上“蛋白质最大化”热潮的众多食品品牌之一,拉哈尔认为这股热潮完全由GLP-1的爆发式增长驱动。摄入蛋白质有助于GLP-1用药人群维持肌肉量——这类药物会抑制食欲,使用者需摄入高营养密度食物,才能避免肌肉流失。
拉哈尔将如今货架上琳琅满目的高蛋白零食市场现状称为“蛋白质资本主义”。新品品类覆盖面极广,从科勒·卡戴珊(Khloé Kardashian)推出的高蛋白爆米花品牌Khloud,到星巴克的全新饮品系列(其中部分饮品添加乳清蛋白冷奶泡),不一而足。
高蛋白消费热潮势头强劲,已对食品供应链产生重大影响。乳清蛋白口感佳、在包装食品中稳定性高,是主流分离蛋白品类,如今已出现供应短缺。
“依靠GLP-1类药物减重及进行健康管理的人群,需额外补充蛋白质来维持肌肉量、保持身体状态,”农业咨询公司Ever.Ag Insights副总裁凯瑟琳·沃尔夫利(Kathleen Wolfley)告诉《财富》杂志,“因此我认为,市场存在极大的需求。”
美国农业部数据显示,高蛋白浓缩乳清蛋白价格在过去数月飙升40%,部分供应商产品已售罄。拉哈尔表示,自David Protein 2024年底推出首款产品以来,其使用的乳清蛋白成本已从每磅7美元上涨至近12美元。
拉哈尔表示,供应短缺或将重塑蛋白质产品的市场格局,迫使部分企业调整配方、转向其他蛋白质来源,这可能导致乳清蛋白的“需求崩塌”。然而,其他蛋白质来源需求上升,又可能推高其他原料的价格。
David Protein计划顺应“蛋白质最大化”潮流。公司已承担乳清蛋白涨价带来的成本压力,并凭借热销产品实现增长——旗下产品已进驻约1.6万家门店,今年营收预计可达3亿美元。
“我们的策略是,稳住现有布局,暂不进行大幅调整。”拉哈尔说道。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
每年1月,David Protein创始人兼首席执行官彼得·拉哈尔总能预判市场趋势:生酮饮食、原始人饮食等各类新式减肥饮食轮番登场,市场行情“波动剧烈”。然而,今年情况有所不同。市面上并未出现新减肥饮食方案。
David Protein首席执行官对食品行业潮流了如指掌。在2024年推出David品牌蛋白棒和冰淇淋前,他曾创立RXBar,最终以6亿美元将该品牌出售给家乐氏(Kellogg)。
“我对食品行业趋势的总体看法是,由于GLP-1类药物的出现,减肥饮食风潮已经终结,”拉哈尔告诉《财富》杂志。“这类药物对食品消费趋势的影响极为深远。”
目前约有10%的美国民众使用过GLP-1受体激动剂。这类药物可延缓消化,用于治疗糖尿病与肥胖症,能调节胰岛素分泌、抑制食欲。
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预测,今年该类药物市场规模将攀升至820亿美元。随着这类药物改变减重的底层逻辑,食品行业也将发生变革。
雀巢(Nestle)、康尼格拉(Conagra)等食品品牌纷纷推出专为GLP-1用药人群设计的产品,试图抢占这一新兴市场。但在拉哈尔看来,人们对食品消费趋势的认知已彻底转变,针对减肥人群设计的饮食方案不再受欢迎。
“没人再通过减肥饮食来减重或塑形了,大家都转而选择GLP-1类药物。”他说道。
受GLP‑1药物冲击,传统减重服务需求大幅萎缩,慧俪轻体(WeightWatchers)去年依据美国《破产法》第11章申请破产保护。不久后,该公司宣布与Wegovy(诺和诺德公司研发的口服减肥药)、Mounjaro(替尔泊肽注射液)等GLP-1药物生产商达成合作,同时拓展平台服务,为用药人群配备营养师和行为教练。
GLP-1类药物虽终结了减肥饮食风潮,却催生了新行业趋势。
“高蛋白产品之所以热销,根源在于GLP-1类药物的普及,”他说,“所以接下来会出现什么新趋势,真的很难预测。”
“蛋白质最大化”风潮兴起
事实上,David Protein正是搭上“蛋白质最大化”热潮的众多食品品牌之一,拉哈尔认为这股热潮完全由GLP-1的爆发式增长驱动。摄入蛋白质有助于GLP-1用药人群维持肌肉量——这类药物会抑制食欲,使用者需摄入高营养密度食物,才能避免肌肉流失。
拉哈尔将如今货架上琳琅满目的高蛋白零食市场现状称为“蛋白质资本主义”。新品品类覆盖面极广,从科勒·卡戴珊(Khloé Kardashian)推出的高蛋白爆米花品牌Khloud,到星巴克的全新饮品系列(其中部分饮品添加乳清蛋白冷奶泡),不一而足。
高蛋白消费热潮势头强劲,已对食品供应链产生重大影响。乳清蛋白口感佳、在包装食品中稳定性高,是主流分离蛋白品类,如今已出现供应短缺。
“依靠GLP-1类药物减重及进行健康管理的人群,需额外补充蛋白质来维持肌肉量、保持身体状态,”农业咨询公司Ever.Ag Insights副总裁凯瑟琳·沃尔夫利(Kathleen Wolfley)告诉《财富》杂志,“因此我认为,市场存在极大的需求。”
美国农业部数据显示,高蛋白浓缩乳清蛋白价格在过去数月飙升40%,部分供应商产品已售罄。拉哈尔表示,自David Protein 2024年底推出首款产品以来,其使用的乳清蛋白成本已从每磅7美元上涨至近12美元。
拉哈尔表示,供应短缺或将重塑蛋白质产品的市场格局,迫使部分企业调整配方、转向其他蛋白质来源,这可能导致乳清蛋白的“需求崩塌”。然而,其他蛋白质来源需求上升,又可能推高其他原料的价格。
David Protein计划顺应“蛋白质最大化”潮流。公司已承担乳清蛋白涨价带来的成本压力,并凭借热销产品实现增长——旗下产品已进驻约1.6万家门店,今年营收预计可达3亿美元。
“我们的策略是,稳住现有布局,暂不进行大幅调整。”拉哈尔说道。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Every January, David Protein founder and CEO Peter Rahal knew what to expect: the emergence of a new diet trend like keto or paleo in “very volatile swings.” This year, however, was different. There was no new fad diet.
David Protein’s chief executive is familiar with food trends. Before launching the David brand of protein bars and ice cream in 2024, he created the RXBar, eventually selling it to Kellogg’s for $600 million.
“My general view on food trends is that because of GLP-1s, diet trends are over,” Rahal told Fortune. “It’s really impactful on food trends.”
About 10% of the U.S. population has taken a GLP-1 receptor agonist, a medication that slows digestion and is used to treat diabetes or obesity, as it can regulate the release of insulin and appetite.
The drug is expected to swell to a $82 billion market this year, according to Morgan Stanley, and as it changes the nature of weight loss, the food industry is expected to change along with it.
While food brands like Nestle and Conagra roll out special products specifically for GLP-1 users to capture this emerging market, Rahal sees a fundamental difference in how people view trends around food, particularly diet programs designed for people to lose weight.
“No one’s turning to a diet as an intervention for weight loss or body composition change. Everyone’s going to GLP-1s,” he said.
Last year, WeightWatchers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as GLP-1 drugs zapped demand for traditional weight loss programs. Soon after, it announced partnerships with the makers of GLP-1s like Wegovy and Mounjaro, while also expanding its platform to offer dietitians and behavioral coaches for those using the drug.
But where GLP-1s may be eliminating the need for certain trends, it’s also forming new ones.
“That’s why protein is popular, is because it’s all fundamentally GLP-1-driven,” he said. “So then what’s next is really hard to predict.”
The rise of ‘proteinmaxxing’
Indeed, David Protein is among myriad food brands capitalizing on the rising trend of “proteinmaxxing” that Rahal attributed to the GLP-1 boom. The intake of protein helps GLP-1 users preserve muscle, as the medication can suppress appetite and require users to consume nutrient-dense food to avoid muscle loss.
Rahal called the emergence of protein-packed snacks now lining shelves “protein capitalism.” New products range from Khloud, Khloé Kardashian’s protein popcorn, to Starbucks’ new line of beverages, including some topped with whey protein cold foams.
The rise in protein popularity is so immense it already has meaningful impacts on food supply chains, including a shortage of whey protein, a popular isolate due to its good taste and stability in packaged foods.
“Folks that are supplementing with GLP-1s for weight loss and for other health maintenance, they need that additional protein to maintain muscle mass and feel good about themselves,” Kathleen Wolfley, vice president of agriculture consultancy Ever.Ag Insights told Fortune. “So I think that there’s an element of very, very firm demand in the market.”
According to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, the price of high-protein whey concentrate has soared 40% over the past few months, with some suppliers already selling out of the product. Rahal said that since David Protein released its first products in late 2024, the cost of the whey protein it uses has increased from $7 per pound to nearly $12 per pound.
Rahal said the shortage could continue to change the market around protein products, forcing some companies to change recipes by pivoting to other sources of proteins, potentially causing a “demand destruction” of whey. However, increased demand for other protein sources risks raising prices for other ingredients.
David Protein, for its part, plans to ride the proteinmaxxing wave. It’s been able to absorb the increased cost of whey and bank on the rising popularity of its products, which are in about 16,000 stores and expected to rake in $300 million in revenue this year.
“The strategy is just, like, survive versus changing anything,” Rahal said.