首页 500强 活动 榜单 商业 科技 商潮 专题 品牌中心
杂志订阅

手握美国大部分财富和权力的这代人,害怕积蓄不足无法安度晚年

Nick Lichtenberg
2026-06-28

他们正在面对一个残酷的现实:从财务角度看,他们已经囊中羞涩,可偏偏寿命太长。

文本设置
小号
默认
大号
Plus(0条)

即便坐拥大量财富,婴儿潮一代晚年依然深陷财务窘境。图片来源:Getty Images

婴儿潮一代手握美国大部分的财富和权力,但为何有人指出这一点时,他们却如此愤怒?

最近几周,一系列经济数据出炉,以及对那些阻碍住房可负担性、家庭组建以及经济阶层流动等关键指标的结构性因素的分析,引发了读者的热烈反响。其中有引人深思的见解,也不乏愤怒乃至防御性的回应。越来越多的声音在敦促我,要跳出惯用的代际分析框架看待问题。

有读者直言:“你的文章令人作呕。”

另一位读者则表示:“我们生活的世界本就毫无公平可言!”并补充道:“不管你怎么推杆,高尔夫球始终是个高尔夫球。经济也是如此!适应现实吧!”

还有一位读者让我体会到,当宏观数据无法反映每个微观个体的真实处境时,那种深切的焦虑感。一位刚经历丧亲之痛的婴儿潮一代读者写道:“在你笔下,好像每个婴儿潮一代都住在豪宅里,拥有七位数的个人退休账户一样。事实上,我们很多人只要生一次重病,就可能倾家荡产。”

有一位读者并没有表现出敌意,而是带着几分感伤回顾自己这一代人的经历。他写道:“很多婴儿潮一代生活贫困,内心惶恐,对余生充满焦虑。他们曾被灌输这样的理念:只要努力工作、一步步向上爬,最终就能获得财务保障,在65岁安然退休,享受属于自己的‘黄金岁月’。很多人循规蹈矩,却在途中遭遇了各种不幸。”有的人在55岁到60岁之间遭遇裁员;有的人突发重病;还有人经历了其他变故。

“世事难料。对于很多婴儿潮一代来说,退休后的黄金岁月并不美好,他们对未来也没有太多期盼。他们身体已经衰老,却还债务缠身。他们被困在毫无出路的生活泥沼中,未来看起来黯淡无光。没错,如今人们的寿命更长,但对许多人而言,生活质量并没有随之提高,也绝非他们年轻时所憧憬的那般模样。”

这真切道出了许多婴儿潮一代的心声——事情原本不该变成这样。这一代人曾搭上廉价大学教育、房价持续上涨和401(k)革命的顺风车,一路走到了职业生涯尾声。他们本应体面地退休,把房子和工作机会腾给子孙后辈。然而现实却是,数百万人仍在苦苦支撑,他们守着不敢搬离的大房子,继续干着不敢轻易辞去的工作,因为他们正在面对一个残酷的现实:从财务角度看,他们已经囊中羞涩,可偏偏寿命太长。

一个不敢退休的世代

2024年至2030年间,约有3,000万名“婴儿潮高峰期出生的人”将陆续年满65岁。根据ALI退休收入研究所(ALI Retirement Income Institute)经济学家杰森·费希特纳及其同事的测算,约三分之二的人在财务上尚未做好准备,无法维持退休前的生活水平。研究综合考虑了他们的资产状况、预期寿命以及未来支出需求。数据显示,超半数人的退休储蓄不超过25万美元,这一数额还未计入重大疾病、市场下跌或长期护理支出等开销。这意味着,他们未来将严重依赖社会保障金和工作收入来维持生活。

先锋集团(Vanguard)针对“年轻婴儿潮一代”的研究也从另一个角度得出了相似结论。在60岁出头的劳动者中,只有约40%有望在退休后维持现有生活水平;而临近退休者普遍面临约24%的收入缺口,每年差额约9,000美元。另有调查显示,尽管已经达到或接近传统退休年龄,近一半婴儿潮一代的退休储蓄不足10万美元,约四分之一的人甚至完全没有退休储蓄。对于一个退休生活可能长达二三十年的群体来说,这笔账无论怎么算都难以成立。

71岁的丹2021年退休。他在给我的来信中提到,自己一直秉持着“埋头苦干、踏实工作”的生活态度,在一家汽车修理厂上夜班的18年里从未旷工一天。但在过去二三十年间,“不只是婴儿潮一代,我们所有人的可自由支配收入都在缩水。未来还会缩水到什么程度?没人知道。不仅如此,我们享有的许多福利已经被大幅削减,甚至彻底取消。”

尽管丹这些年确实积累了一笔看似“相当可观的存款”,但他依然对每月高达1万美元的养老辅助机构费用忧心忡忡。“没有哪个婴儿潮一代愿意落入这种境地,但它始终萦绕在我们的脑海里。”在这种情况下,继续工作或者守住自己辛苦打拼来的家当,几乎成了他们唯一的退路。当经济大环境动荡不安时,把财富传承给下一代成了一种奢望。

丹一针见血地指出了核心矛盾。斯坦福大学长寿研究中心(Stanford Center on Longevity)的一项分析显示,如今一名健康的60岁女性活到90岁的概率超过50%,活到95岁的概率也接近三分之一;男性的数据也相差无几。然而,早在2010年代中期的一些调查就发现,在55岁及以上劳动者中,仅有约30%拥有25万美元或以上退休储蓄。与此同时,精算师们已经开始预测,长达25年至30年的退休生活日益成为常态。

即便婴儿潮一代做好了退休规划,他们又怎能预料到寿命大幅延长,以及后来席卷而来的生活成本危机?指数型年金领导委员会(Indexed Annuity Leadership Council)一项被广泛引用的调查显示,60%的婴儿潮一代曾认为,拥有不到100万美元就能过上舒适的退休生活。同时,许多人低估了自己的寿命,也高估了未来能够领取的社会保障福利。正是这种对福利过于乐观、对寿命过于悲观的矛盾组合,造就了这样一代人:从账面上看,他们拥有人类历史上最庞大的财富;但在现实中,其中数以千万计的人却可能无力承担人生最后三分之一的生活开支。

困守大房子

房地产市场正是这种财务焦虑最具体的写照。婴儿潮一代以及年龄较大的X世代拥有美国相当大比例的三居室及以上住宅,其中许多位于热门市区和优质郊区地段。他们买房时房价更低、利率也较为适中;如今,不少人的房贷利率低于4%,还有很多人早已还清房贷。婴儿潮一代之所以不愿搬家,并不仅仅是出于情感因素——约54%的婴儿潮一代房主根本没有房贷,因此他们几乎没有出售房产的财务压力。Redfin根据2024年美国人口普查数据进行的分析显示,已经成为“空巢家庭”的婴儿潮一代(即仅有一至两名成年人的家庭)拥有美国28%的三居室及以上住宅,而有子女的千禧一代家庭占比仅为16%。

房地产经济学家将这种现象称为“房贷锁定效应”。当你拥有低固定利率房贷,同时房屋又已经大幅升值时,即便卖掉现有住房换到面积更小的房子,考虑到如今更高的贷款利率、税费以及交易成本后,每月支出可能不降反升。这正是许多年长房主所描述的现实情况。一对来自菲尼克斯的夫妇在来信中写道,他们“根本负担不起卖房搬家的费用”。他们指出,现在当地一居室公寓的租金已经高于他们每月的房贷支出,而养老社区的费用更是遥不可及。“我们并不富有,只是目前过得还算舒适。”他们特意强调了“目前”这两个字。

根据我与某位X世代读者一段黑色幽默式的交流来看,这种心态也向下蔓延到了更年轻的世代身上。他写道:“我确实住在一套6,400平方英尺的大房子里,窗外景观价值300万美元,而且已经还清了房贷。我只想说,如果我的继续存在能让年轻人变得更痛苦、更穷困、更爱发牢骚,那这一切就都值了。此致,一位努力工作过的X世代。对于年轻一代支付高昂租金住破旧公寓、却积累不到任何房屋净值这件事,我完全没有意见。听到那个声音了吗?那是我为年轻一代心碎的声音(才怪)。”

后来我追问他,为什么觉得年轻一代总爱发牢骚。他给我发来了一张价值300万美元的窗外景观的照片,并回复道:“我也不知道原因是什么,但每次打开社交媒体,我看到的都是年轻人在抱怨买不起房、买不起车。我这辈子大部分时间每周工作七天,才换来今天拥有的一切。从来没人听我抱怨过半句,以后也绝不会有。顺便说一句,我一直都是坚定的自由派民主党人。”

巨蟒腹中的蛇:财富分配愈发悬殊

当然,这种情况的分布并不均衡。财富数据表明,美国老年群体内部同样存在极其严重的贫富差距。基于AHEAD调查的早期研究发现,在有70岁及以上成员的家庭中,财富排名前10%的家庭所拥有的资产规模,大约是排名后10%家庭的2,500倍。而近期研究显示,自20世纪90年代末以来,这种不平等还在进一步扩大。较年长的黑人和拉美裔家庭、租房者以及慢性病患者,在步入晚年时极易陷入低资产、高负债的困境。

读者来信也反映出这种鲜明的分化。一端是储蓄不足、焦虑不安的退休人士,他们竭尽所能延长有限资产的使用期限;另一端则是加州的房主,他们当年花100多万美元买下的房产,如今价值已超过400万美元,但他们同样忧心忡忡,因为一旦出售房屋,就要缴纳近100万美元的联邦和州政府税负。而夹在两者之间的,则是一个自认为“目前还过得去,但毫无安全感”的庞大群体。他们认为,无论是继续住在原来的房子里,还是继续留在原来的工作岗位上,都是自己唯一理性的选择。

一个为“短寿”设计的制度

人们很容易把这一切解读成一个道德寓言:自私的婴儿潮一代拒绝退休、拒绝搬家,从而拖累了他们亲手建立起来的经济体系。但现实背后是更深层的结构性问题,而且在某种程度上也更加残酷。过去几十年间,美国逐渐将退休风险从企业和政府转稼到个人身上,而与此同时,人们的寿命却不断延长,住房和医疗成本持续飙升。固定收益养老金被401(k)计划取代;长期护理费用也基本处于保障真空状态;税收和住房政策则鼓励人们长期持有不断升值的房产,而不是腾出住房资源。

事实上,婴儿潮一代基本都遵循了时代给出的人生路径:努力工作、买房置业、通过税收优惠账户储蓄,并依靠社会保障体系填补退休收入缺口。然而,许多人直到六七十岁时才发现,这套模式没有考虑到人们活到90岁以上的长寿预期,也没有预料到工资增长停滞、市场崩溃以及医疗费用失控所带来的叠加影响。从外部看,他们像是堵住房源和工作机会的“退休者高墙”;但从内部来看,这代人更像是在默默担心在生命走向终点前把积蓄耗光。在这种情况下,如果再把这一结构性问题归咎于他们个人,未免有失公允。

一位69岁的房地产顾问在来信中告诉我,这篇报道所讨论的问题,呼应了他经常和两个千禧一代子女以及五个千禧一代侄子侄女讨论的话题。他写道:“我曾系统而客观地比较过自己购买首套房时的负担能力,以及他们今天面临的情况。各项分析都表明,当年房价更低,但利率更高。而我能买得起的房子的质量和所处地段,也远比不上他们如今追求的标准。”在他看来,大多数千禧一代并不愿意为买房而做出必要的取舍——无论是多攒钱在更好的社区买房,还是去一个不那么时髦的地方置业。他补充道,归根结底,这“并不是一个代际问题(虽然代际因素确实存在),而是一个经济问题。造成你所描述的困局的,并不是婴儿潮一代这个群体本身,而是婴儿潮一代庞大的人口基数。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

婴儿潮一代手握美国大部分的财富和权力,但为何有人指出这一点时,他们却如此愤怒?

最近几周,一系列经济数据出炉,以及对那些阻碍住房可负担性、家庭组建以及经济阶层流动等关键指标的结构性因素的分析,引发了读者的热烈反响。其中有引人深思的见解,也不乏愤怒乃至防御性的回应。越来越多的声音在敦促我,要跳出惯用的代际分析框架看待问题。

有读者直言:“你的文章令人作呕。”

另一位读者则表示:“我们生活的世界本就毫无公平可言!”并补充道:“不管你怎么推杆,高尔夫球始终是个高尔夫球。经济也是如此!适应现实吧!”

还有一位读者让我体会到,当宏观数据无法反映每个微观个体的真实处境时,那种深切的焦虑感。一位刚经历丧亲之痛的婴儿潮一代读者写道:“在你笔下,好像每个婴儿潮一代都住在豪宅里,拥有七位数的个人退休账户一样。事实上,我们很多人只要生一次重病,就可能倾家荡产。”

有一位读者并没有表现出敌意,而是带着几分感伤回顾自己这一代人的经历。他写道:“很多婴儿潮一代生活贫困,内心惶恐,对余生充满焦虑。他们曾被灌输这样的理念:只要努力工作、一步步向上爬,最终就能获得财务保障,在65岁安然退休,享受属于自己的‘黄金岁月’。很多人循规蹈矩,却在途中遭遇了各种不幸。”有的人在55岁到60岁之间遭遇裁员;有的人突发重病;还有人经历了其他变故。

“世事难料。对于很多婴儿潮一代来说,退休后的黄金岁月并不美好,他们对未来也没有太多期盼。他们身体已经衰老,却还债务缠身。他们被困在毫无出路的生活泥沼中,未来看起来黯淡无光。没错,如今人们的寿命更长,但对许多人而言,生活质量并没有随之提高,也绝非他们年轻时所憧憬的那般模样。”

这真切道出了许多婴儿潮一代的心声——事情原本不该变成这样。这一代人曾搭上廉价大学教育、房价持续上涨和401(k)革命的顺风车,一路走到了职业生涯尾声。他们本应体面地退休,把房子和工作机会腾给子孙后辈。然而现实却是,数百万人仍在苦苦支撑,他们守着不敢搬离的大房子,继续干着不敢轻易辞去的工作,因为他们正在面对一个残酷的现实:从财务角度看,他们已经囊中羞涩,可偏偏寿命太长。

一个不敢退休的世代

2024年至2030年间,约有3,000万名“婴儿潮高峰期出生的人”将陆续年满65岁。根据ALI退休收入研究所(ALI Retirement Income Institute)经济学家杰森·费希特纳及其同事的测算,约三分之二的人在财务上尚未做好准备,无法维持退休前的生活水平。研究综合考虑了他们的资产状况、预期寿命以及未来支出需求。数据显示,超半数人的退休储蓄不超过25万美元,这一数额还未计入重大疾病、市场下跌或长期护理支出等开销。这意味着,他们未来将严重依赖社会保障金和工作收入来维持生活。

先锋集团(Vanguard)针对“年轻婴儿潮一代”的研究也从另一个角度得出了相似结论。在60岁出头的劳动者中,只有约40%有望在退休后维持现有生活水平;而临近退休者普遍面临约24%的收入缺口,每年差额约9,000美元。另有调查显示,尽管已经达到或接近传统退休年龄,近一半婴儿潮一代的退休储蓄不足10万美元,约四分之一的人甚至完全没有退休储蓄。对于一个退休生活可能长达二三十年的群体来说,这笔账无论怎么算都难以成立。

71岁的丹2021年退休。他在给我的来信中提到,自己一直秉持着“埋头苦干、踏实工作”的生活态度,在一家汽车修理厂上夜班的18年里从未旷工一天。但在过去二三十年间,“不只是婴儿潮一代,我们所有人的可自由支配收入都在缩水。未来还会缩水到什么程度?没人知道。不仅如此,我们享有的许多福利已经被大幅削减,甚至彻底取消。”

尽管丹这些年确实积累了一笔看似“相当可观的存款”,但他依然对每月高达1万美元的养老辅助机构费用忧心忡忡。“没有哪个婴儿潮一代愿意落入这种境地,但它始终萦绕在我们的脑海里。”在这种情况下,继续工作或者守住自己辛苦打拼来的家当,几乎成了他们唯一的退路。当经济大环境动荡不安时,把财富传承给下一代成了一种奢望。

丹一针见血地指出了核心矛盾。斯坦福大学长寿研究中心(Stanford Center on Longevity)的一项分析显示,如今一名健康的60岁女性活到90岁的概率超过50%,活到95岁的概率也接近三分之一;男性的数据也相差无几。然而,早在2010年代中期的一些调查就发现,在55岁及以上劳动者中,仅有约30%拥有25万美元或以上退休储蓄。与此同时,精算师们已经开始预测,长达25年至30年的退休生活日益成为常态。

即便婴儿潮一代做好了退休规划,他们又怎能预料到寿命大幅延长,以及后来席卷而来的生活成本危机?指数型年金领导委员会(Indexed Annuity Leadership Council)一项被广泛引用的调查显示,60%的婴儿潮一代曾认为,拥有不到100万美元就能过上舒适的退休生活。同时,许多人低估了自己的寿命,也高估了未来能够领取的社会保障福利。正是这种对福利过于乐观、对寿命过于悲观的矛盾组合,造就了这样一代人:从账面上看,他们拥有人类历史上最庞大的财富;但在现实中,其中数以千万计的人却可能无力承担人生最后三分之一的生活开支。

困守大房子

房地产市场正是这种财务焦虑最具体的写照。婴儿潮一代以及年龄较大的X世代拥有美国相当大比例的三居室及以上住宅,其中许多位于热门市区和优质郊区地段。他们买房时房价更低、利率也较为适中;如今,不少人的房贷利率低于4%,还有很多人早已还清房贷。婴儿潮一代之所以不愿搬家,并不仅仅是出于情感因素——约54%的婴儿潮一代房主根本没有房贷,因此他们几乎没有出售房产的财务压力。Redfin根据2024年美国人口普查数据进行的分析显示,已经成为“空巢家庭”的婴儿潮一代(即仅有一至两名成年人的家庭)拥有美国28%的三居室及以上住宅,而有子女的千禧一代家庭占比仅为16%。

房地产经济学家将这种现象称为“房贷锁定效应”。当你拥有低固定利率房贷,同时房屋又已经大幅升值时,即便卖掉现有住房换到面积更小的房子,考虑到如今更高的贷款利率、税费以及交易成本后,每月支出可能不降反升。这正是许多年长房主所描述的现实情况。一对来自菲尼克斯的夫妇在来信中写道,他们“根本负担不起卖房搬家的费用”。他们指出,现在当地一居室公寓的租金已经高于他们每月的房贷支出,而养老社区的费用更是遥不可及。“我们并不富有,只是目前过得还算舒适。”他们特意强调了“目前”这两个字。

根据我与某位X世代读者一段黑色幽默式的交流来看,这种心态也向下蔓延到了更年轻的世代身上。他写道:“我确实住在一套6,400平方英尺的大房子里,窗外景观价值300万美元,而且已经还清了房贷。我只想说,如果我的继续存在能让年轻人变得更痛苦、更穷困、更爱发牢骚,那这一切就都值了。此致,一位努力工作过的X世代。对于年轻一代支付高昂租金住破旧公寓、却积累不到任何房屋净值这件事,我完全没有意见。听到那个声音了吗?那是我为年轻一代心碎的声音(才怪)。”

后来我追问他,为什么觉得年轻一代总爱发牢骚。他给我发来了一张价值300万美元的窗外景观的照片,并回复道:“我也不知道原因是什么,但每次打开社交媒体,我看到的都是年轻人在抱怨买不起房、买不起车。我这辈子大部分时间每周工作七天,才换来今天拥有的一切。从来没人听我抱怨过半句,以后也绝不会有。顺便说一句,我一直都是坚定的自由派民主党人。”

巨蟒腹中的蛇:财富分配愈发悬殊

当然,这种情况的分布并不均衡。财富数据表明,美国老年群体内部同样存在极其严重的贫富差距。基于AHEAD调查的早期研究发现,在有70岁及以上成员的家庭中,财富排名前10%的家庭所拥有的资产规模,大约是排名后10%家庭的2,500倍。而近期研究显示,自20世纪90年代末以来,这种不平等还在进一步扩大。较年长的黑人和拉美裔家庭、租房者以及慢性病患者,在步入晚年时极易陷入低资产、高负债的困境。

读者来信也反映出这种鲜明的分化。一端是储蓄不足、焦虑不安的退休人士,他们竭尽所能延长有限资产的使用期限;另一端则是加州的房主,他们当年花100多万美元买下的房产,如今价值已超过400万美元,但他们同样忧心忡忡,因为一旦出售房屋,就要缴纳近100万美元的联邦和州政府税负。而夹在两者之间的,则是一个自认为“目前还过得去,但毫无安全感”的庞大群体。他们认为,无论是继续住在原来的房子里,还是继续留在原来的工作岗位上,都是自己唯一理性的选择。

一个为“短寿”设计的制度

人们很容易把这一切解读成一个道德寓言:自私的婴儿潮一代拒绝退休、拒绝搬家,从而拖累了他们亲手建立起来的经济体系。但现实背后是更深层的结构性问题,而且在某种程度上也更加残酷。过去几十年间,美国逐渐将退休风险从企业和政府转稼到个人身上,而与此同时,人们的寿命却不断延长,住房和医疗成本持续飙升。固定收益养老金被401(k)计划取代;长期护理费用也基本处于保障真空状态;税收和住房政策则鼓励人们长期持有不断升值的房产,而不是腾出住房资源。

事实上,婴儿潮一代基本都遵循了时代给出的人生路径:努力工作、买房置业、通过税收优惠账户储蓄,并依靠社会保障体系填补退休收入缺口。然而,许多人直到六七十岁时才发现,这套模式没有考虑到人们活到90岁以上的长寿预期,也没有预料到工资增长停滞、市场崩溃以及医疗费用失控所带来的叠加影响。从外部看,他们像是堵住房源和工作机会的“退休者高墙”;但从内部来看,这代人更像是在默默担心在生命走向终点前把积蓄耗光。在这种情况下,如果再把这一结构性问题归咎于他们个人,未免有失公允。

一位69岁的房地产顾问在来信中告诉我,这篇报道所讨论的问题,呼应了他经常和两个千禧一代子女以及五个千禧一代侄子侄女讨论的话题。他写道:“我曾系统而客观地比较过自己购买首套房时的负担能力,以及他们今天面临的情况。各项分析都表明,当年房价更低,但利率更高。而我能买得起的房子的质量和所处地段,也远比不上他们如今追求的标准。”在他看来,大多数千禧一代并不愿意为买房而做出必要的取舍——无论是多攒钱在更好的社区买房,还是去一个不那么时髦的地方置业。他补充道,归根结底,这“并不是一个代际问题(虽然代际因素确实存在),而是一个经济问题。造成你所描述的困局的,并不是婴儿潮一代这个群体本身,而是婴儿潮一代庞大的人口基数。”(财富中文网)

译者:刘进龙

审校:汪皓

The Baby Boomers have most of the wealth and power in America, so why are they so angry when this gets pointed out?

In recent weeks, a collection of economic data and explanations of structural forces preventing important things like housing affordability, household formation and economic mobility have provoked many responses—some thoughtful, some angry, some even defensive, but increasingly urging me to look beyond the reliable generational framing.

“Your article is gross,” one wrote to me.

“There is no balance in the world we live in!” another said, adding, “a golf ball is a golf ball no matter how you putt it. So is the economy! Adapt!”

Another gave me a sense of the angst felt when broad macro strokes don’t capture the reality on the ground for every micro-case: ” You write like every boomer is sitting on a McMansion and a seven figure IRA,” one bereaved Boomer wrote to me. “A lot of us are one bad diagnosis away from losing everything.”

Still another wasn’t much of a hater at all, but wrote with wistfulness about what’s gone down. “Many boomers are poor, scared, and anxious about the life they have left,” they wrote. “They were led to believe that if they worked hard and climbed the corporate ladder you would eventually be able to be financially secure and retire at 65 and enjoy their ‘golden years.’ Many tried this approach but ran into misfortune along the way.” Either there was a layoff at 55 to 60 years old, unanticipated health issues, or others.

“Life happens. For many boomers, the golden years are not golden, and they don’t have much to look forward to. Their bodies are broken and they are still in debt. They are trapped in a life without a way out and their future does not look golden. Yes, they live longer, but for too many of them, not better and certainly not in a way they expected when they were younger.”

It speaks to the very real sense many Boomers have that things weren’t supposed to end up like this. The generation that rode cheap college, rising home prices, and the 401(k) revolution into late career was expected to bow out gracefully, freeing up houses and jobs for their kids and grandkids. Instead, millions are hanging on—staying in big homes they can’t quite afford to leave and in jobs they can’t quite afford to quit—because they’re confronting a grim reality: in financial terms, they are broke and living too long.

A generation that can’t afford to retire

Roughly 30 million “peak boomers” are turning 65 between 2024 and 2030. Two thirds of them will not be financially prepared to maintain their pre retirement lifestyles, according to an analysis by ALI Retirement Income Institute economist Jason Fichtner and colleagues that modeled their assets, expected lifespans, and spending needs. More than half have $250,000 or less in retirement savings—before health shocks, market downturns, or long term care—which means they will lean heavily on Social Security and work income to get by.

Vanguard’s research on “young baby boomers” reaches a similar conclusion from a different direction. Only about 40% of workers in their early sixties are on track to sustain their standard of living in retirement; the typical near retiree faces about a 24% income gap, roughly $9,000 a year. Other surveys find that nearly half of boomers have less than $100,000 saved and about a quarter have nothing set aside at all, despite being at or near traditional retirement ages. For a generation that could easily spend 20 to 30 years in retirement, the math does not pencil out.

Dan, a 71-year-old who retired in 2021, wrote to me of his “head-down and plow-in-the-dirt mentality,” claiming he never missed a day of work in 18 years at a mechanic shop (third shift.) But in the past two or three decades, “we all (not just Baby Boomers) saw our spendable income shrink. How far is it going to shrink? No one knows. Not only that, many of our benefits have been substantially reduced or completely taken away.”

Although it’s true that he has acquired what look like “substantial bank accounts,” he worries about assisted living costing $10,000 a month. “No Baby Boomer wants to be in that situation but it is always in the back of our minds.” The only recourse is to keep working or to hang onto what they worked for — there is no choice about passing on wealth to the next generation when the economy feels precarious.

Dan gets at the core mismatch. A Stanford Center on Longevity analysis notes that a healthy 60 year old woman today has more than a 50% chance of living to 90 and roughly a one in three chance of reaching 95; men aren’t far behind. Yet surveys as far back as the mid 2010s found that only about 30% of workers aged 55 and older had accumulated $250,000 or more in retirement savings, even as actuaries were projecting 25 to 30 year retirements as increasingly common.

Even if Boomers planned well for retirement, then, how could they plan for an explosion in lifespan and cost-of-living crisis? A widely cited survey from the Indexed Annuity Leadership Council found that 60% of boomers thought they needed less than $1 million to retire comfortably, and large shares underestimated their likely lifespan and overestimated their Social Security benefits. That combination—optimism about benefits, pessimism about how long they would live—helped produce a cohort that, on paper, owns more wealth than any in history, but in practice includes tens of millions of people who will struggle to finance the last third of their lives.

Stuck in big houses

The housing market is where this financial anxiety becomes concrete. Boomers and older Gen Xers own a disproportionate share of the nation’s three bedroom plus homes, including many in desirable urban and suburban neighborhoods. They bought those houses when prices were lower and interest rates were modest; many now hold mortgages with rates below 4% or own their homes outright.The reason boomers don’t move isn’t just sentiment—most boomer homeowners (about 54%) have no mortgage at all, so there’s little financial pressure to sell. A Redfin analysis of 2024 Census data found that empty-nest baby boomers (one- to two-adult households) own 28% of U.S. homes with three or more bedrooms, compared with 16% for millennial households with kids.

Housing economists talk about a “mortgage lock in” effect: when you have a low fixed rate and a large unrealized gain, selling and buying even a smaller place can raise monthly costs once you factor in today’s higher rates, taxes, and fees. That’s exactly what many older homeowners describe. A couple in Phoenix wrote that they “cannot afford to sell our home and move,” noting that one bedroom apartments now rent for more than their mortgage and that senior living facilities are out of reach. “We are not rich, just comfortable at the moment,” they said—emphasis on “at the moment.”

This attitude extends down to generations, based on a darkly funny exchange I got with a certain Gen Xer. “I do live in a 6400-sq-ft house with a $3 million view that’s paid off. I just want to say that if my continued existence can possibly make any younger people more miserable, broke, and whiny, then it’s all worth it. Sincerely, a Gen X who worked hard and has no problem with the younger generation paying high rent for crappy apartments while they build zero equity. Did you hear that sound? It was my heart breaking for the younger generation(s) (not).”

When I followed up to ask why younger generations seem whiny, I got a nice picture of that $3 million view, and the explanation, “I have no idea, but anytime I go on social media young people are complaining about their inability to buy a house or a car. I worked seven days a week most of my life for what I have; no one ever heard a single complaint out of me and they never will. And for the record, I am a hard-core liberal Democrat and always have been.”

An unequal pig in the python

None of this is evenly distributed. Wealth data show extreme inequality among older Americans: early work using the AHEAD survey found that households with someone 70 or older in the top tenth of the wealth distribution held around 2,500 times as much wealth as those in the bottom tenth, and more recent work finds that inequality has widened further since the late 1990s. Older Black and Latino households, renters, and those with chronic health conditions are far more likely to enter late life with low assets and high debt.

The letters reflect that divide. At one end is the anxious, under saved retiree doing everything possible to stretch limited assets. At the other is the California homeowner who bought for just over $1 million and now sits on a home worth more than $4 million—but worries that selling would trigger close to $1 million in combined federal and state taxes. In the middle is a broad group that describes itself as “fine, but not secure” and treats staying in place—physically and professionally—as the only rational option.

A system built for shorter lives

It is easy to frame this as a morality tale about selfish boomers strangling the economy they built by refusing to move or retire. The reality is more structural, and in some ways more damning. Over several decades, the U.S. shifted retirement risk from employers and the state onto individuals just as lifespans were lengthening and housing and healthcare costs were exploding. Defined benefit pensions gave way to 401(k)s; long term care remained largely uncovered; tax and housing policy rewarded holding onto appreciating property rather than making room.

Boomers largely followed the script they were given: work hard, buy a house, save in tax advantaged accounts, rely on Social Security to fill in the gaps. Many are now discovering in their late 60s and early 70s that the script did not account for a 90 plus lifespan or for the cumulative effects of wage stagnation, market crashes, and runaway medical costs. Seen from the outside, they look like a wall of retirees hoarding houses and jobs; seen from the inside, they look like a generation quietly terrified of running out of money before they run out of years. To then be blamed for this structural issue, instead of recognizing its reality, seems a bridge too far.

A 69-year-old real-estate consultant wrote to me to say that this reporting echoes conversations he often has with his two millennial children and five millennial nieces and nephews. “I have systematically and factually compared my affordability when I bought my first house with them,” he wrote. “In every analysis, the cost of homes were less, interest rates were much higher, the quality of the homes and the areas I could afford were not close to what they want.” Most millennials, he argues, are unwilling to do what needs to be done to get a house,” whether that’s save more to buy a house in a nicer neighborhood or pursue a house somewhere less fashionable. Overall, the added, this is “not a generational issue (though that’s is one the influences), but one of economics. It’s the sheer number of Boomers that creates the problem you describe, not the Boomers themselves.”

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
0条Plus
精彩评论
评论

撰写或查看更多评论

请打开财富Plus APP

前往打开