
昨日,纳斯达克综合指数走出“V”字走势:午盘前一度大跌逾4%,最终收盘时跌幅已收窄至1%。
无人知晓背后的确切原因。
临近中午,AI恐慌情绪卷土重来,交易员开始抛售贝塔系数最高的股票,也就是那些泡沫最大、波动最剧烈的热门股。其中包括周一刚刚大涨的杠杆化比特币概念股Strategy(MSTR)、移动广告技术公司AppLovin(APP),以及光子器件制造商Lumentum(LITE)。
而遭遇集中抛售的重灾区是芯片股。美满电子(Marvell)此前因获纳入标普500指数而单日上涨10%,当天却又暴跌10%。与此同时,策略师本·埃蒙斯所称的“抛物线七巨头”中的其余个股也普遍承压。这一名称源于某芯片指数在短短数周内飙升近100%的表现。
不过,投资者并未完全撤离股市——美国国债市场基本未出现明显波动。相反,资金开始转向“花生酱和涂料股”。果酱与花生酱制造商Smucker股价暴涨两位数,家得宝(Home Depot)和宣伟(Sherwin-Williams)一路领涨。房地产、必需消费品和公用事业板块最终全线上扬,成为市场对冲科技股泡沫的传统压舱石。Focus Partners Wealth高级全球市场策略师理查德·斯坦伯格对《华尔街日报》表示:“资金正在流向那些长期不受市场青睐、被投资者忽视的消费股。”
具体触发因素并不明确,但市场确实有理由获利了结芯片股,以分散过度集中的AI交易。华尔街正在为周五即将登场的SpaceX腾出资金空间。SpaceX的IPO规模有望创下历史记录,而已经秘密提交上市申请的OpenAI和Anthropic也将紧随其后。Annex Wealth Management首席经济学家布赖恩·雅各布森将这轮科技股上涨比作翅膀正在融化的“伊卡洛斯交易”:Alphabet罕见的增发融资是第一个警讯,而SpaceX则像一个正在抽走资金的“闪闪发光的新玩具”。不过,这一逻辑也存在一个变数:SpaceX目前已被超额认购,市场上已有多笔100亿美元级别的认购订单。
与此同时,本周三和周四将公布新的通胀数据,而上周强劲的5月就业报告已经进一步推迟了降息预期。在可能影响美联储政策路径的通胀数据出炉前,基金通常不愿死守最拥挤、波动性最高的仓位,这或许也是部分热门科技股目前遭到减仓的原因。
此次下跌与其说是抛售,不如说是买盘缺席。Founder ETFs的迈克尔·莫纳汉将其描述为买方收手,而非慌忙出逃,股价下跌的速度远超成交量本身所反映的程度。
油价则走出了相反行情。即便美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示,针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡附近击落美国陆军“阿帕奇”直升机一事,美国必须予以回击,原油价格仍下跌约3%,至每桶88美元左右。与此同时,美国能源部长表示,通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运活动已出现明显恢复。
眼下,投资者最关心的问题是,这究竟是泡沫长期破裂的开端,还是一次性的调整。答案或许将在SpaceX正式上市时揭晓,届时公开市场资本将有机会决定是否仍然相信AI叙事。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
昨日,纳斯达克综合指数走出“V”字走势:午盘前一度大跌逾4%,最终收盘时跌幅已收窄至1%。
无人知晓背后的确切原因。
临近中午,AI恐慌情绪卷土重来,交易员开始抛售贝塔系数最高的股票,也就是那些泡沫最大、波动最剧烈的热门股。其中包括周一刚刚大涨的杠杆化比特币概念股Strategy(MSTR)、移动广告技术公司AppLovin(APP),以及光子器件制造商Lumentum(LITE)。
而遭遇集中抛售的重灾区是芯片股。美满电子(Marvell)此前因获纳入标普500指数而单日上涨10%,当天却又暴跌10%。与此同时,策略师本·埃蒙斯所称的“抛物线七巨头”中的其余个股也普遍承压。这一名称源于某芯片指数在短短数周内飙升近100%的表现。
不过,投资者并未完全撤离股市——美国国债市场基本未出现明显波动。相反,资金开始转向“花生酱和涂料股”。果酱与花生酱制造商Smucker股价暴涨两位数,家得宝(Home Depot)和宣伟(Sherwin-Williams)一路领涨。房地产、必需消费品和公用事业板块最终全线上扬,成为市场对冲科技股泡沫的传统压舱石。Focus Partners Wealth高级全球市场策略师理查德·斯坦伯格对《华尔街日报》表示:“资金正在流向那些长期不受市场青睐、被投资者忽视的消费股。”
具体触发因素并不明确,但市场确实有理由获利了结芯片股,以分散过度集中的AI交易。华尔街正在为周五即将登场的SpaceX腾出资金空间。SpaceX的IPO规模有望创下历史记录,而已经秘密提交上市申请的OpenAI和Anthropic也将紧随其后。Annex Wealth Management首席经济学家布赖恩·雅各布森将这轮科技股上涨比作翅膀正在融化的“伊卡洛斯交易”:Alphabet罕见的增发融资是第一个警讯,而SpaceX则像一个正在抽走资金的“闪闪发光的新玩具”。不过,这一逻辑也存在一个变数:SpaceX目前已被超额认购,市场上已有多笔100亿美元级别的认购订单。
与此同时,本周三和周四将公布新的通胀数据,而上周强劲的5月就业报告已经进一步推迟了降息预期。在可能影响美联储政策路径的通胀数据出炉前,基金通常不愿死守最拥挤、波动性最高的仓位,这或许也是部分热门科技股目前遭到减仓的原因。
此次下跌与其说是抛售,不如说是买盘缺席。Founder ETFs的迈克尔·莫纳汉将其描述为买方收手,而非慌忙出逃,股价下跌的速度远超成交量本身所反映的程度。
油价则走出了相反行情。即便美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示,针对伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡附近击落美国陆军“阿帕奇”直升机一事,美国必须予以回击,原油价格仍下跌约3%,至每桶88美元左右。与此同时,美国能源部长表示,通过霍尔木兹海峡的航运活动已出现明显恢复。
眼下,投资者最关心的问题是,这究竟是泡沫长期破裂的开端,还是一次性的调整。答案或许将在SpaceX正式上市时揭晓,届时公开市场资本将有机会决定是否仍然相信AI叙事。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Today, the Nasdaq Composite looked like a V: down more than 4% by lunchtime, closing off just 1%.
Nobody knows exactly why.
Around noon, the AI jitters came back, and traders dumped the highest-beta names—the frothiest, most volatile stuff—like Strategy (MSTR), the leveraged Bitcoin vehicle that had popped Monday; AppLovin (APP); and photonics maker Lumentum (LITE).
But the densest cluster was the chipmakers: Marvell, which dropped 10% in a day after jumping 10% on news it’s joining the S&P 500, and the rest of what strategist Ben Emons has dubbed the “Parabolic 7,” after a chip index that ran up nearly 100% in a matter of weeks.
Rather than fleeing equities altogether—Treasuries barely moved—the market rotated into peanut butter and paint: Smucker jumped double digits; Home Depot and Sherwin-Williams led. Real estate, staples, and utilities finished up: the classic ballast against tech froth.
“You’re seeing money flow into consumer names that have been unwanted and unloved,” Richard Steinberg, senior global market strategist at Focus Partners Wealth, told the Wall Street Journal.
The trigger wasn’t clear, but there are real reasons to want out of chips, diversifying away from the AI trade. Wall Street has to make room for SpaceX, set to be the largest IPO ever, on Friday, with OpenAI and Anthropic—both now confidentially filed—close behind. Annex Wealth Management’s Brian Jacobsen called the tech run an Icarus trade with the wings melting: Alphabet’s rare capital raise was the first warning, and SpaceX the “shiny new toys” pulling money out. Though even that story has a wrinkle: SpaceX is already oversubscribed, with multiple $10 billion orders in.
Also this week, inflation data lands Wednesday and Thursday, and a strong May jobs report last week has already pushed expectations for rate cuts further out. Funds tend not to sit in their most crowded, highest-beta positions going into an inflation reading that could move the Fed’s path, which could be why some froth got cut off now.
The selling may also be less about selling than an absence of buyers. Founder ETFs’ Michael Monaghan described it as buyers stepping back rather than a rush for the exits, dropping the price faster than the volume would suggest.
Oil went the other way. Even after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would have to respond to Iran’s downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, crude fell about 3% to roughly $88, as the energy secretary said traffic through the Strait was picking up meaningfully.
Certainly investors are now wondering if this is the start of a longer “pop” or just a one-time correction. For them, the best information will come as SpaceX debuts, and public capital gets to decide if they believe in the AI story or not.