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SpaceX IPO将引发大规模抛售潮

Jason Ma
2026-06-09

投资者为筹措认购资金,纷纷减持投资组合中的其他股票。

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2024年6月6日,SpaceX“星舰”在得克萨斯州布朗斯维尔博卡奇卡海滩发射升空,完成第四次飞行测试。图片来源:Brandon Bell/Getty Images

史上规模最大的首次公开募股(IPO)仅剩数日,市场对SpaceX股票的认购需求空前高涨,华尔街正争相抢购埃隆·马斯克旗下火箭与卫星公司的股份。

但这场认购热潮的背后,却是市场集中抛售:投资者为筹措认购资金,纷纷减持投资组合中的其他股票。

诚然,IPO通常会引发市场波动。但法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)美国股票衍生品策略主管格雷格·布特尔(Greg Boutle)在上周五的一份报告中指出,此次情况有所不同:SpaceX上市不仅会带来市场波动,其市值还将创下美国IPO历史新高。

SpaceX计划通过本次IPO发行逾5.55亿股股票,发行价为每股135美元,募资至少750亿美元,公司估值将超过1.75万亿美元。若承销商行使超额配售权以满足高需求,募资总额可能增至857亿美元。

本次IPO预计于周四晚间确定发行价,股票将于周五在纳斯达克交易所挂牌交易,股票代码为SPCX。

“我们认为,SpaceX带来的许多单一资金流或许能被市场消化。问题在于,许多资金流向高度趋同、叠加效应显著。”布特尔解释道。“据报道,SpaceX上市流通股规模接近750亿美元,不难想象,300亿美元的被动资金买入、散户跟风抢购,再加上杠杆型交易所交易基金(ETF)和期权交易资金集中涌入,将迅速加剧该股的流动性压力。一旦所有资金同时集中买入或抛售,价格错位风险将大幅上升。”

自2002年成立以来,SpaceX已在航天领域占据主导地位,长期以来一直是全球估值最高的初创企业之一。去年,该公司占据全球火箭发射量的80%以上,目前已有超1万颗“星链”卫星在轨运行,为企业和军方提供天基互联网服务。

尽管标普道琼斯指数公司并未调整纳入规则,因此SpaceX无法快速纳入标普500指数,但纳斯达克100指数修改了纳入规则,这将促使追踪这一科技股指数的被动型基金产生买入需求。

这类买入资金,同样需通过抛售其他股票来筹措。布特尔认为,对于SpaceX及其IPO的市场影响而言,散户投资者可能比被动资金流更为重要。原因在于,今年以来,散户投资普遍抱有“错失恐惧症”式追涨心态。

“这种从众行为往往会加剧行情波动,引发肥尾效应(极端行情发生概率上升),”他补充道,“被动资金涌入将进一步放大这种效应。”

散户的大部分资金可能都配置了其他个股,而近年来人工智能相关个股股价飙升,这类股票自然成了套现来源。

事实上,布特尔指出,上周五芯片股领跌的股市暴跌行情,可能正是他此前预警的价格错位的早期信号。

“散户为投资SpaceX而抛售近期热门股及杠杆类金融产品的规模可能会非常庞大。”他预测道。

布特尔估计,散户和被动型投资者合计或将抛售价值500亿美元的其他股票,以筹集资金购买SpaceX股票。如果该公司IPO表现超出预期,抛售规模还会进一步扩大。如果杠杆ETF和商品交易顾问也加入其中,触发机械性再平衡,可能会加剧连锁反应。

此外,据布特尔称,SpaceX的IPO恰逢第二季度末,市场原本预计将出现超1000亿美元的股票抛售(与IPO无关)。

“市场风险并非来自单一资金流动,而是各类抛盘叠加形成的累积效应。”他警告道。

尽管SpaceX的IPO或将让华尔街经历一轮震荡,但这仅是开端。OpenAI和Anthropic也计划在今年上市,届时同样会迎来巨额认购需求。

与此同时,其他超大规模公司也在进行二次增发,谷歌母公司Alphabet上周发行了850亿美元股票。

大量新股突然涌入市场,引发了人们对市场需求能否消化所有供应的担忧。

头部人工智能公司上市,还意味着那些持有关联企业股票、希望间接分享人工智能行业红利的投资者,不再需要持有相关个股了。

“多年来,投资者因为无法直接投资头部人工智能企业,只能购买替代性标的,”DeVere Group首席投资官奈杰尔·格林(Nigel Green)对彭博社表示,“如果投资者最终能直接持有OpenAI的股票,那么这些关联概念股原本具备的稀缺价值必然会大幅缩水。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

史上规模最大的首次公开募股(IPO)仅剩数日,市场对SpaceX股票的认购需求空前高涨,华尔街正争相抢购埃隆·马斯克旗下火箭与卫星公司的股份。

但这场认购热潮的背后,却是市场集中抛售:投资者为筹措认购资金,纷纷减持投资组合中的其他股票。

诚然,IPO通常会引发市场波动。但法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)美国股票衍生品策略主管格雷格·布特尔(Greg Boutle)在上周五的一份报告中指出,此次情况有所不同:SpaceX上市不仅会带来市场波动,其市值还将创下美国IPO历史新高。

SpaceX计划通过本次IPO发行逾5.55亿股股票,发行价为每股135美元,募资至少750亿美元,公司估值将超过1.75万亿美元。若承销商行使超额配售权以满足高需求,募资总额可能增至857亿美元。

本次IPO预计于周四晚间确定发行价,股票将于周五在纳斯达克交易所挂牌交易,股票代码为SPCX。

“我们认为,SpaceX带来的许多单一资金流或许能被市场消化。问题在于,许多资金流向高度趋同、叠加效应显著。”布特尔解释道。“据报道,SpaceX上市流通股规模接近750亿美元,不难想象,300亿美元的被动资金买入、散户跟风抢购,再加上杠杆型交易所交易基金(ETF)和期权交易资金集中涌入,将迅速加剧该股的流动性压力。一旦所有资金同时集中买入或抛售,价格错位风险将大幅上升。”

自2002年成立以来,SpaceX已在航天领域占据主导地位,长期以来一直是全球估值最高的初创企业之一。去年,该公司占据全球火箭发射量的80%以上,目前已有超1万颗“星链”卫星在轨运行,为企业和军方提供天基互联网服务。

尽管标普道琼斯指数公司并未调整纳入规则,因此SpaceX无法快速纳入标普500指数,但纳斯达克100指数修改了纳入规则,这将促使追踪这一科技股指数的被动型基金产生买入需求。

这类买入资金,同样需通过抛售其他股票来筹措。布特尔认为,对于SpaceX及其IPO的市场影响而言,散户投资者可能比被动资金流更为重要。原因在于,今年以来,散户投资普遍抱有“错失恐惧症”式追涨心态。

“这种从众行为往往会加剧行情波动,引发肥尾效应(极端行情发生概率上升),”他补充道,“被动资金涌入将进一步放大这种效应。”

散户的大部分资金可能都配置了其他个股,而近年来人工智能相关个股股价飙升,这类股票自然成了套现来源。

事实上,布特尔指出,上周五芯片股领跌的股市暴跌行情,可能正是他此前预警的价格错位的早期信号。

“散户为投资SpaceX而抛售近期热门股及杠杆类金融产品的规模可能会非常庞大。”他预测道。

布特尔估计,散户和被动型投资者合计或将抛售价值500亿美元的其他股票,以筹集资金购买SpaceX股票。如果该公司IPO表现超出预期,抛售规模还会进一步扩大。如果杠杆ETF和商品交易顾问也加入其中,触发机械性再平衡,可能会加剧连锁反应。

此外,据布特尔称,SpaceX的IPO恰逢第二季度末,市场原本预计将出现超1000亿美元的股票抛售(与IPO无关)。

“市场风险并非来自单一资金流动,而是各类抛盘叠加形成的累积效应。”他警告道。

尽管SpaceX的IPO或将让华尔街经历一轮震荡,但这仅是开端。OpenAI和Anthropic也计划在今年上市,届时同样会迎来巨额认购需求。

与此同时,其他超大规模公司也在进行二次增发,谷歌母公司Alphabet上周发行了850亿美元股票。

大量新股突然涌入市场,引发了人们对市场需求能否消化所有供应的担忧。

头部人工智能公司上市,还意味着那些持有关联企业股票、希望间接分享人工智能行业红利的投资者,不再需要持有相关个股了。

“多年来,投资者因为无法直接投资头部人工智能企业,只能购买替代性标的,”DeVere Group首席投资官奈杰尔·格林(Nigel Green)对彭博社表示,“如果投资者最终能直接持有OpenAI的股票,那么这些关联概念股原本具备的稀缺价值必然会大幅缩水。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

The largest initial public offering ever is just days away, and demand for SpaceX stock is expected to be extremely high, with Wall Street clamoring to buy Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company.

The flip side of all that buying is plenty of selling as investors need to raise cash for stock purchases by liquidating other shares in their portfolios.

To be sure, IPOs are often accompanied by volatility. But Greg Boutle, head of U.S. equity derivative strategy at BNP Paribas, pointed out in a note Friday that what’s different this time is SpaceX-related volatility will be coupled with the largest market cap ever seen in a U.S. IPO.

SpaceX plans to raise at least $75 billion in its IPO by selling over 555 million shares at $135 a piece, valuing the company at more than $1.75 trillion. If underwriters exercise options for additional allotments to meet high demand, proceeds could grow to $85.7 billion.

The IPO is expected to price Thursday evening, with shares trading Friday on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX.

“We think many of the standalone SpaceX flows might be digestible. The problem is that many of these flows are potentially same-way and additive,” Boutle explained. “With the SpaceX free float reported to be close to $75bn on IPO, it’s easy to see how $30bn of passive buying, a retail investor chase, and levered ETF and option flows collectively could quickly become challenging for the stock’s liquidity. If all are chasing to buy (or sell) at the same time, the risk of price dislocation becomes much greater.”

SpaceX has long been one of the most highly valued startups after taking over the space industry since its founding in 2002. It claimed more than 80% of global rocket launches last year and has over 10,000 Starlink satellites in orbit, providing space-based internet connections to businesses and militaries.

While S&P Dow Jones Indices chose not to change its rules to accelerate inclusion of SpaceX in the S&P 500, rules for the Nasdaq 100 were tweaked, triggering purchase demand for passive funds linked to the tech-heavy index.

Such buying will be funded with equivalent selling. But Boutle noted retail investors could be more important for SpaceX and the IPO’s market impact than passive flows. That’s because they have behaved in “a FOMO-style, rally-chasing manner” so far this year.

“This type of herd behavior tends to amplify moves and create fatter tails,” he added. “This would then be amplified by passive investment demand.”

Retail investors could have much of their wealth tied up in other stocks, and the astronomical surge of AI-related companies in recent years makes them ripe as sources of cash.

In fact, Boutle observed that Friday’s market bloodbath, which was led by chip stocks, could be an early indication of the coming price dislocations he flagged.

“Selling flows in recent winners and levered products from retail to invest in SpaceX could be very large,” he predicted.

Boutle estimated that retail and passive investors might sell a combined $50 billion of other stocks to raise funds for buying SpaceX. And if the IPO performs well, that figure could rise. A further cascading effect is possible if levered ETFs and commodity trading advisors join in, as mechanical rebalancing is triggered.

On top of that, the SpaceX IPO is happening near the end of the second quarter, when more than $100 billion of stock sales unrelated to the IPO were already expected, according to Boutle.

“The danger for the market is not the individual flows, but the cumulative effect,” he warned.

As much as the SpaceX IPO could be a bumpy ride for Wall Street, it’s just the beginning. OpenAI and Anthropic also plan to go public this year, and demand for the top AI companies will likely be high as well.

At the same time, other hyperscalers are selling stock in secondary offerings, with Google parent Alphabet issuing $85 billion in shares in the last week.

The abundance of new shares suddenly becoming available has raised concerns about whether there’s enough demand to match all the supply.

The IPOs of the leading AI companies also mean investors who have been holding shares in adjacent companies in the hope of riding the AI boom indirectly no longer need them anymore.

“Investors have spent years buying proxies because they couldn’t buy the assets directly,” Nigel Green, chief investment officer at DeVere Group, told Bloomberg. “If investors can eventually own OpenAI itself, some of the scarcity value attached to that relationship inevitably changes.”

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