
过去几个月里,有一种场景已司空见惯:一位企业高管抛出AI将重创就业市场的悲观论调,引发持续数周的舆论讨论,并令美国劳动者人心惶惶。如今,一位AI“教父”级人物开始公开驳斥这些言论,并警告其带来的负面影响。
在接受Axios采访时,前Meta AI负责人、深度学习等多项AI核心技术的重要奠基人杨立昆表示,这类“末日叙事”并不正确,而且“极具破坏性”。
他表示:“别听那些CEO们的说法。他们都由自身利益驱动,需要不断抬高自己所售产品的影响力。”他认为人们更应该听取经济学家的观点。许多经济学家并不认同“AI会消灭大批白领初级岗位”的判断。
曾获得图灵奖(旨在表彰为计算机科学领域做出持久贡献的年度奖项)的杨立昆进一步表示,这些铺天盖地的警告“极具破坏性”。
他表示:“有一部分高中生真的因此陷入沮丧,因为他们了解到的信息是:AI不仅会抢走人类的饭碗,甚至还会导致人类灭绝。他们对此深信不疑,而这会对他们的心理造成深远影响。”
杨立昆警告称,真正的风险并不在于AI本身,也不在于围绕AI的各种论断,而在于人们基于这些论断,做出影响人生的重大决定。他主张高中生仍然应该上大学,不该因为担心未来缺少初级岗位,就放弃自己真正热爱的领域。
尽管一些科技公司今年确实以AI提升效率为由进行裁员,但“大规模AI失业潮”至今并未真正出现。也有人怀疑,所谓的裁员理由不过是企业编造的借口——公司因其他原因裁员,却归因于AI。就连OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼都曾专门为这种现象起了个名字。
不过,即便如此,Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊仍坚持认为,AI最终会消灭一半的白领初级岗位。而微软(Microsoft)人工智能主管穆斯塔法·苏莱曼则表示,这一警告可能在短短18个月内成为现实。
Z世代担心AI引发“就业末日”,但数据却给出了不同答案
尽管目前还没有研究能够准确说明,“AI就业末日论”究竟会对高中生产生多大影响,但盖洛普(Gallup)近期的一项调查显示,Z世代对AI技术愈发持怀疑态度。在14岁至29岁的受访者中,31%的人表示对AI的发展感到焦虑或愤怒,高于一年前的22%。
部分原因在于,如今许多有关AI的警告,瞄准的正是职业发展的关键起点——初级岗位。对一些年轻人而言,白领工作的吸引力似乎正在减弱。他们父母那一代所拥有的稳定生活保障,如医保、401(k)退休储蓄计划、带薪休假等,如今正变得越来越遥不可及。
正因为这种认知,越来越多Z世代开始重新思考传统职业晋升路径。招聘平台ZipRecruiter近期一项研究发现,应届大学毕业生不再只盯着全职工作,而是开始考虑创业、从事零工或自由职业,或是转向技术工种。
但这种普遍焦虑,与现实数据并不完全一致。根据ZipRecruiter的数据,2025届毕业生中,有77%在毕业后三个月内找到了工作,高于一年前的63.3%。与此同时,美联储的数据显示,20岁至24岁人群的失业率已从去年9月的9.2%降至今年3月的6.4%。这表明,大学生和刚毕业不久的年轻人找到工作的速度,其实比那些“末日论者”预言的要快得多。
不过,也有一些研究显示,劳动力市场未来或许确实会演变成首席执行官们所描述的样子。AI实验室Anthropic的一项研究发现,其AI系统理论上已经能够完成法律、商业、金融、管理等多类白领岗位相关的工作任务。
尽管如此,杨立昆并不认为那种衰退局面会很快出现。相反,他认为,AI与过去历次技术革命之间存在相似之处,而不少经济学家也曾以类似逻辑反驳“AI就业末日论”。
杨立昆表示:“这次技术革命,与过去那些技术革命并无二致。它只不过是又一套提升效率的新工具而已。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
过去几个月里,有一种场景已司空见惯:一位企业高管抛出AI将重创就业市场的悲观论调,引发持续数周的舆论讨论,并令美国劳动者人心惶惶。如今,一位AI“教父”级人物开始公开驳斥这些言论,并警告其带来的负面影响。
在接受Axios采访时,前Meta AI负责人、深度学习等多项AI核心技术的重要奠基人杨立昆表示,这类“末日叙事”并不正确,而且“极具破坏性”。
他表示:“别听那些CEO们的说法。他们都由自身利益驱动,需要不断抬高自己所售产品的影响力。”他认为人们更应该听取经济学家的观点。许多经济学家并不认同“AI会消灭大批白领初级岗位”的判断。
曾获得图灵奖(旨在表彰为计算机科学领域做出持久贡献的年度奖项)的杨立昆进一步表示,这些铺天盖地的警告“极具破坏性”。
他表示:“有一部分高中生真的因此陷入沮丧,因为他们了解到的信息是:AI不仅会抢走人类的饭碗,甚至还会导致人类灭绝。他们对此深信不疑,而这会对他们的心理造成深远影响。”
杨立昆警告称,真正的风险并不在于AI本身,也不在于围绕AI的各种论断,而在于人们基于这些论断,做出影响人生的重大决定。他主张高中生仍然应该上大学,不该因为担心未来缺少初级岗位,就放弃自己真正热爱的领域。
尽管一些科技公司今年确实以AI提升效率为由进行裁员,但“大规模AI失业潮”至今并未真正出现。也有人怀疑,所谓的裁员理由不过是企业编造的借口——公司因其他原因裁员,却归因于AI。就连OpenAI首席执行官萨姆·奥尔特曼都曾专门为这种现象起了个名字。
不过,即便如此,Anthropic首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代伊仍坚持认为,AI最终会消灭一半的白领初级岗位。而微软(Microsoft)人工智能主管穆斯塔法·苏莱曼则表示,这一警告可能在短短18个月内成为现实。
Z世代担心AI引发“就业末日”,但数据却给出了不同答案
尽管目前还没有研究能够准确说明,“AI就业末日论”究竟会对高中生产生多大影响,但盖洛普(Gallup)近期的一项调查显示,Z世代对AI技术愈发持怀疑态度。在14岁至29岁的受访者中,31%的人表示对AI的发展感到焦虑或愤怒,高于一年前的22%。
部分原因在于,如今许多有关AI的警告,瞄准的正是职业发展的关键起点——初级岗位。对一些年轻人而言,白领工作的吸引力似乎正在减弱。他们父母那一代所拥有的稳定生活保障,如医保、401(k)退休储蓄计划、带薪休假等,如今正变得越来越遥不可及。
正因为这种认知,越来越多Z世代开始重新思考传统职业晋升路径。招聘平台ZipRecruiter近期一项研究发现,应届大学毕业生不再只盯着全职工作,而是开始考虑创业、从事零工或自由职业,或是转向技术工种。
但这种普遍焦虑,与现实数据并不完全一致。根据ZipRecruiter的数据,2025届毕业生中,有77%在毕业后三个月内找到了工作,高于一年前的63.3%。与此同时,美联储的数据显示,20岁至24岁人群的失业率已从去年9月的9.2%降至今年3月的6.4%。这表明,大学生和刚毕业不久的年轻人找到工作的速度,其实比那些“末日论者”预言的要快得多。
不过,也有一些研究显示,劳动力市场未来或许确实会演变成首席执行官们所描述的样子。AI实验室Anthropic的一项研究发现,其AI系统理论上已经能够完成法律、商业、金融、管理等多类白领岗位相关的工作任务。
尽管如此,杨立昆并不认为那种衰退局面会很快出现。相反,他认为,AI与过去历次技术革命之间存在相似之处,而不少经济学家也曾以类似逻辑反驳“AI就业末日论”。
杨立昆表示:“这次技术革命,与过去那些技术革命并无二致。它只不过是又一套提升效率的新工具而已。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
It’s become a common pattern over the past few months: A business leader makes an ominous claim about the impact of AI on the labor market, sparking weeks of discourse and sending U.S. workers reeling. Now, a “godfather” of AI is pushing back on those claims—and warning about the dangers they spur.
In an interview with Axios, Yann LeCun, former Meta AI chief who invented many of the fundamental components of AI like deep learning, said those doom narratives are wrong—and “extremely destructive.”
“Don’t listen to CEOs,” he said. “They have a vested interest in propping up the power of the products they sell.” He said to instead listen to the economists, many of whom doubt the position that AI will wipe out large swaths of the entry-level white-collar workforce.
LeCun, winner of the Turing Award (an annual prize for making lasting contributions to computer science) added that the sum of those warnings is “extremely destructive.”
“A small proportion of high school students are actually kind of depressed because they’ve read that AI is not only going to take a job, but basically cause human extinction,” he said. “They take that seriously and it has a profound effect on their psychology.”
LeCun warned, instead, that the danger doesn’t lie with AI and the claims associated with it, but with making grand, life-altering decisions as a result of those claims. He advocated for high school students to still go to college, and not let the fears of a lack of an entry-level job sway them from going into the field they enjoy.
Though some tech companies have laid off workers this year thanks to AI-related efficiencies, the massive AI job apocalypse has yet to materialize. Some are skeptical that job cuts were actually a corporate fiction where companies cut headcount due to a disparate reason though pin it on AI out of convenience: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman even gave that practice a name.
Despite this, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei still says AI will wipe out half of entry-level white-collar work. Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman said that the warning will be realized in just 18 months.
Gen Z fears an AI job apocalypse. The data tells a different story
While there’s no research available to map out how exactly AI job apocalypse warnings impact high school students, a recent Gallup poll found that Gen Zers are growing more skeptical of the technology. Thirty-one percent of the 14- to 29-year-olds surveyed said they are anxious or angry about AI’s development, up from 22% a year ago.
That’s in part because most of the heeded warnings target the critical on-ramp to a career: the entry-level role. For some, it seems the promise of white-collar work, a role with all the stable furnishings of what many of their parents had achieved—health insurance, a 401K, paid-time off—is increasingly out of reach.
Because of that perception, the majority of Gen Zers are reconsidering the climb up the corporate ladder. A recent study from ZipRecruiter found that instead of considering a full-time job, fresh college grads are considering starting their own business, looking into gig work or freelance work, and pursuing the trades.
But the vibe is detached from what the data says. Seventy-seven percent of the class of 2025 found a role within three months of graduation, up from 63.3% a year ago, according to ZipRecruiter. Moreover, unemployment for 20- to 24-year-olds is down to 6.4% in March from a high of 9.2% last September, according to Federal Reserve data, suggesting those of college, and recent post-grad age are landing roles faster than what the doomers would have you believing.
But there is some research suggesting that the labor market could soon end up where the CEOs say it could be going. Research from AI lab Anthropic found that its AI is already theoretically capable of performing the tasks associated with roles in law, business, finance, management, and other white-collar roles.
Still, LeCun doesn’t see that downturn playing out anytime soon. Rather, he sees parallels between AI and past technological revolutions, a similarity that other economists have spelled out to make the same case against the job apocalypse argument.
“There is nothing qualitatively different between the previous technological revolutions and this one,” he said. “It’s just another set of tools that makes us more efficient.”