
现代职场中,白领群体面临着各式各样的压力——从强制返岗要求到人工智能焦虑,再到Slack礼仪之争。但另一个问题正悄然在职场蔓延,其根源不在于技术或官僚主义,而在于人口年龄结构失衡。美国人口老龄化进程不断加快,年轻劳动力不足以填补关键岗位空缺;Indeed首席经济学家斯文娅·古德尔指出,这种代际失衡正给劳动力市场带来巨大压力。
“我们正步入严重错配新阶段,”古德尔近日在《财富》职场创新峰会上表示,“未来将出现劳动者集中在并无实际用人需求的岗位的情况,我们将不得不把大量工作重新分配给其他人,这一过程必然伴随阵痛。”
这位Indeed经济学家解释称,大多数工业化国家正经历这一转变。根据贝恩公司(Bain)的分析,在包括美国、加拿大、法国和意大利在内的七国集团(G7)发达经济体中,到2031年,55岁及以上劳动者占总劳动力的比重将突破 25%,比2011年高出约10%。随着更多婴儿潮一代(占美国劳动力的15%)退休,年轻一代无力填补这一缺口。此外,Z世代和千禧一代的职业抱负与前辈们截然不同,致使技能型行业、制造业和医疗保健等行业出现劳动力短缺。
“同样值得注意的是,当下正在发生诸多变化,不仅仅是人工智能,”古德尔继续说道。“人口结构变化更是亟待应对的严峻挑战。”
百事公司(PepsiCo)首席人力资源官贝基·施密特(Becky Schmitt)认同这位经济学家的观点,即劳动力市场存在巨大缺口。她认为人工智能有助于解决这一问题;这位高管解释称,随着人口结构变化,这家市值2030亿美元的跨国食品公司可通过自动化简化人们不愿从事的“艰苦工作”。年轻一代不愿从事某些工作的现象,并非美国独有。
“我们甚至发现,在那些人口基数大、青年群体占比高的国家,年轻人更想成为网红,不愿从事销售岗位,”施密特在小组讨论中表示,“这种错配也体现在职业兴趣上,我们必须提高效率。”
全球劳动力市场:严重错配
美国和许多工业化国家正面临同样的问题:老年人口持续增加,年轻群体规模缩减,且选择少生。
美国人口普查局的研究显示,过去二十多年来,55岁及以上劳动者一直是劳动力市场中增长最快的群体,2022年其占比已接近四分之一。如今,部分行业正争相吸引年轻专业人才加入:2022年,公用事业行业55岁及以上员工占比高达80%;制造业和批发贸易业中,这一比例也达到40%。
这种代际错配堪称前所未有:Lightcast 2024年的报告显示,劳动力市场迎来现代史上首个拐点——65岁及以上人口数量首次超过16岁人口。经合组织(OECD)的研究也发现,未来几年,许多发达国家20至64岁劳动年龄人口将出现下降。到2060年,四分之一的经合组织成员国——从加拿大、哥伦比亚到韩国、西班牙——劳动年龄人口将减少30%。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
现代职场中,白领群体面临着各式各样的压力——从强制返岗要求到人工智能焦虑,再到Slack礼仪之争。但另一个问题正悄然在职场蔓延,其根源不在于技术或官僚主义,而在于人口年龄结构失衡。美国人口老龄化进程不断加快,年轻劳动力不足以填补关键岗位空缺;Indeed首席经济学家斯文娅·古德尔指出,这种代际失衡正给劳动力市场带来巨大压力。
“我们正步入严重错配新阶段,”古德尔近日在《财富》职场创新峰会上表示,“未来将出现劳动者集中在并无实际用人需求的岗位的情况,我们将不得不把大量工作重新分配给其他人,这一过程必然伴随阵痛。”
这位Indeed经济学家解释称,大多数工业化国家正经历这一转变。根据贝恩公司(Bain)的分析,在包括美国、加拿大、法国和意大利在内的七国集团(G7)发达经济体中,到2031年,55岁及以上劳动者占总劳动力的比重将突破 25%,比2011年高出约10%。随着更多婴儿潮一代(占美国劳动力的15%)退休,年轻一代无力填补这一缺口。此外,Z世代和千禧一代的职业抱负与前辈们截然不同,致使技能型行业、制造业和医疗保健等行业出现劳动力短缺。
“同样值得注意的是,当下正在发生诸多变化,不仅仅是人工智能,”古德尔继续说道。“人口结构变化更是亟待应对的严峻挑战。”
百事公司(PepsiCo)首席人力资源官贝基·施密特(Becky Schmitt)认同这位经济学家的观点,即劳动力市场存在巨大缺口。她认为人工智能有助于解决这一问题;这位高管解释称,随着人口结构变化,这家市值2030亿美元的跨国食品公司可通过自动化简化人们不愿从事的“艰苦工作”。年轻一代不愿从事某些工作的现象,并非美国独有。
“我们甚至发现,在那些人口基数大、青年群体占比高的国家,年轻人更想成为网红,不愿从事销售岗位,”施密特在小组讨论中表示,“这种错配也体现在职业兴趣上,我们必须提高效率。”
全球劳动力市场:严重错配
美国和许多工业化国家正面临同样的问题:老年人口持续增加,年轻群体规模缩减,且选择少生。
美国人口普查局的研究显示,过去二十多年来,55岁及以上劳动者一直是劳动力市场中增长最快的群体,2022年其占比已接近四分之一。如今,部分行业正争相吸引年轻专业人才加入:2022年,公用事业行业55岁及以上员工占比高达80%;制造业和批发贸易业中,这一比例也达到40%。
这种代际错配堪称前所未有:Lightcast 2024年的报告显示,劳动力市场迎来现代史上首个拐点——65岁及以上人口数量首次超过16岁人口。经合组织(OECD)的研究也发现,未来几年,许多发达国家20至64岁劳动年龄人口将出现下降。到2060年,四分之一的经合组织成员国——从加拿大、哥伦比亚到韩国、西班牙——劳动年龄人口将减少30%。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
The modern workforce has no shortage of white-collar tensions—from return-to-office mandates to AI anxiety and Slack etiquette wars. But another issue is quietly creeping into the workforce—one rooted not in technology or bureaucracy, but in age. America’s population is aging rapidly, and there aren’t enough young workers to backfill their critical roles; Svenja Gudell, chief economist at Indeed, says the generational imbalance is straining the workforce.
“We’re entering a new phase of a great mismatch,” Gudell recently said onstage at Fortune’s Workplace Innovation Summit. “We’re going to have workers in places we actually don’t want workers, and we’re going to have to reallocate a whole bunch of jobs to other people, and that’s going to cause a little bit of pain.”
The Indeed economist explains that most industrialized countries are going through the shift. Among the Group of Seven countries with advanced economies—including the U.S., Canada, France, and Italy—workers 55 and up will make up more than 25% of the workforce by 2031, about 10% higher than in 2011, according to an analysis from Bain. And as more baby boomers (representing 15% of the U.S. workforce) drift into retirement, younger generations won’t be able to fill in the gap. Plus, the career ambitions of Gen Z and millennial workers differ from those of their predecessors—and it’s creating a supply gap in some industries like skilled trades, manufacturing, and healthcare.
“It’s really important to also recognize that there’s lots of stuff happening right now—it’s not just AI,” Gudell continued. “Demographic change is a huge one that’s knocking on our door right now.”
Becky Schmitt, chief people officer at PepsiCo, agrees with the economist that there’s a glaring gap in the labor force. And she believes AI can help address that problem; the executive explained that as demographics change, the $203 billion multinational food company can streamline some of the “harder jobs” that people are less interested in by automating them. And younger generations’ unwillingness to take on certain roles even extends far beyond the U.S.
“We’re even finding in countries where you still have large populations and a lot of young people [that] they want to be influencers—they don’t actually want to be a salesperson,” Schmitt said onstage during the panel. “So there is this mismatch also in interest, and so we’ve got to be more efficient.”
The growing great mismatch in the global workforce
The U.S. and many industrialized countries are facing the same issue: older populations are growing, while smaller, younger generations are opting to have fewer kids.
Workers 55 and older have been the fastest-growing age group in the labor force for over two decades, accounting for nearly a quarter of the U.S. workforce in 2022, according to U.S. Census Bureau research. And now, some sectors are scrambling to attract young professionals to their fields; employees aged 55 and up made up 80% of the utilities industry in 2022. And in manufacturing and wholesale trade, these older workers accounted for 40% of the headcounts.
And this generational mismatch is like no other; for the first time in modern history, older people aged 65 and up will outnumber 16-year-olds in the workforce, according to a 2024 Lightcast report. OECD research has also found that the working-age population, aged 20 to 64, will decline in many of these developed countries in the coming years. By 2060, the working-age population will fall by 30% in a quarter of OECD nations—from Canada and Colombia to South Korea and Spain.