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美股连涨八周,消费者信心却跌至历史低点

调查显示,美国消费者对经济前景的看法愈发悲观。

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上周五,美股连续第八周收涨,创下自2023年以来最长连涨纪录,华尔街与大多数美国家庭之间的差距进一步拉大。一项调查显示,美国消费者对经济前景的看法愈发悲观。

标普500指数上涨0.4%,逼近上周中创下的历史高点。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨294点,涨幅0.6%;纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.2%。

折扣零售商罗斯百货(Ross Stores)成为当日领涨主力,股价大涨8.1%。此前该公司最新季度利润和营收均大幅超出分析师预期,首席执行官吉姆·康罗伊(Jim Conroy)表示,过去三个月门店客流量大,业绩增长或得益于家庭使用退税进行消费。

雅诗兰黛(Estee Lauder)宣布不再考虑与西班牙香水及美妆产品公司普伊格(Puig)合并,股价随即飙升11.9%。

Workday和Zoom Communications的最新季度财报均好于市场预期,股价分别上涨5.2%和9.2%。

它们是2026年初财报季中最新一批盈利超分析师预期的企业。亮眼财报接连出炉,为美股维持在历史高位附近提供了支撑。从长期来看,股票价格走势与企业盈利水平呈正相关。

即便密歇根大学发布的美国消费者调查显示,消费者信心指数已跌至历史低点,甚至跌破了2022年通胀率超9%峰值时的低点,股市依然表现强劲。美伊战争导致油价高企,美国家庭对当前严峻的通胀形势感到担忧。

调查显示,美国消费者预计未来12个月通胀率将升至4.8%,高于上月预测的4.7%。从长期来看,通胀预期从上月的3.5%跃升至3.9%。通胀预期持续走高引发经济学家担忧,原因在于通胀持续高企或形成恶性循环,进一步推高通胀水平。

调查显示,低收入消费者的信心下滑尤为明显,因为他们最无力承担生活必需品成本上涨带来的压力;共和党选民的信心也有所下滑。

油价持续震荡,进一步加剧了市场不确定性。由于市场难以预判美伊何时能达成协议、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡,油价上周剧烈波动,周五再次上演过山车行情。霍尔木兹海峡封锁导致油轮无法驶出波斯湾,全球原油运输受阻。

8月交割的布伦特原油期货价格在抹去早盘跌幅后上涨0.7%,收于每桶100.21美元。

市场对通胀持续高企的担忧推高了全球债券收益率,或拖累经济、压低股票及各类投资品类价格。受此影响,美国长期抵押贷款平均利率升至去年夏季以来的最高水平,企业缩减人工智能数据中心建设贷款——这些数据中心正是近期美国经济增长的重要动力。

上周五早盘美债收益率曾一度回落,市场迎来短暂缓冲,但随后油价收复失地,加之消费者信心调查显示通胀预期恶化,收益率再度出现波动。

10年期美国国债收益率从上周四尾盘的4.57%微跌至4.56%,但仍远高于战争爆发前的3.97%。

市场担忧通胀居高不下,华尔街交易员撤回了对美联储于年内晚些时候重启降息周期的预期。降息虽能刺激经济,但也可能加剧通胀。

美联储重要成员、理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)上周五在演讲中表示:“如果我认为通胀预期开始失控,我将毫不犹豫地支持上调联邦基金利率目标区间。”

在题为《政策风险已发生变化》的演讲中,他还表示目前情况并非如此。相反,他表示“现阶段应当静观冲突和数据的变化情况。”

海外市场方面,欧洲和亚洲股指全线上涨。

日本日经225指数上涨2.7%,再创历史新高。此前公布的报告显示,尽管战争推高了油气价格,但日本4月通胀率降至1.4%,为四年来最低水平。

华尔街方面,标普500指数上涨27.75点,收于7473.47点。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨294.04点,收于50579.70点;纳斯达克综合指数上涨50.87点,收于26343.97点。(财富中文网)

美联社商业记者陈浩谦(Chan Ho-him,音译)与马特·奥特(Matt Ott)对本文亦有贡献。

译者:中慧言-王芳

上周五,美股连续第八周收涨,创下自2023年以来最长连涨纪录,华尔街与大多数美国家庭之间的差距进一步拉大。一项调查显示,美国消费者对经济前景的看法愈发悲观。

标普500指数上涨0.4%,逼近上周中创下的历史高点。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨294点,涨幅0.6%;纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.2%。

折扣零售商罗斯百货(Ross Stores)成为当日领涨主力,股价大涨8.1%。此前该公司最新季度利润和营收均大幅超出分析师预期,首席执行官吉姆·康罗伊(Jim Conroy)表示,过去三个月门店客流量大,业绩增长或得益于家庭使用退税进行消费。

雅诗兰黛(Estee Lauder)宣布不再考虑与西班牙香水及美妆产品公司普伊格(Puig)合并,股价随即飙升11.9%。

Workday和Zoom Communications的最新季度财报均好于市场预期,股价分别上涨5.2%和9.2%。

它们是2026年初财报季中最新一批盈利超分析师预期的企业。亮眼财报接连出炉,为美股维持在历史高位附近提供了支撑。从长期来看,股票价格走势与企业盈利水平呈正相关。

即便密歇根大学发布的美国消费者调查显示,消费者信心指数已跌至历史低点,甚至跌破了2022年通胀率超9%峰值时的低点,股市依然表现强劲。美伊战争导致油价高企,美国家庭对当前严峻的通胀形势感到担忧。

调查显示,美国消费者预计未来12个月通胀率将升至4.8%,高于上月预测的4.7%。从长期来看,通胀预期从上月的3.5%跃升至3.9%。通胀预期持续走高引发经济学家担忧,原因在于通胀持续高企或形成恶性循环,进一步推高通胀水平。

调查显示,低收入消费者的信心下滑尤为明显,因为他们最无力承担生活必需品成本上涨带来的压力;共和党选民的信心也有所下滑。

油价持续震荡,进一步加剧了市场不确定性。由于市场难以预判美伊何时能达成协议、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡,油价上周剧烈波动,周五再次上演过山车行情。霍尔木兹海峡封锁导致油轮无法驶出波斯湾,全球原油运输受阻。

8月交割的布伦特原油期货价格在抹去早盘跌幅后上涨0.7%,收于每桶100.21美元。

市场对通胀持续高企的担忧推高了全球债券收益率,或拖累经济、压低股票及各类投资品类价格。受此影响,美国长期抵押贷款平均利率升至去年夏季以来的最高水平,企业缩减人工智能数据中心建设贷款——这些数据中心正是近期美国经济增长的重要动力。

上周五早盘美债收益率曾一度回落,市场迎来短暂缓冲,但随后油价收复失地,加之消费者信心调查显示通胀预期恶化,收益率再度出现波动。

10年期美国国债收益率从上周四尾盘的4.57%微跌至4.56%,但仍远高于战争爆发前的3.97%。

市场担忧通胀居高不下,华尔街交易员撤回了对美联储于年内晚些时候重启降息周期的预期。降息虽能刺激经济,但也可能加剧通胀。

美联储重要成员、理事克里斯托弗·沃勒(Christopher Waller)上周五在演讲中表示:“如果我认为通胀预期开始失控,我将毫不犹豫地支持上调联邦基金利率目标区间。”

在题为《政策风险已发生变化》的演讲中,他还表示目前情况并非如此。相反,他表示“现阶段应当静观冲突和数据的变化情况。”

海外市场方面,欧洲和亚洲股指全线上涨。

日本日经225指数上涨2.7%,再创历史新高。此前公布的报告显示,尽管战争推高了油气价格,但日本4月通胀率降至1.4%,为四年来最低水平。

华尔街方面,标普500指数上涨27.75点,收于7473.47点。道琼斯工业平均指数上涨294.04点,收于50579.70点;纳斯达克综合指数上涨50.87点,收于26343.97点。(财富中文网)

美联社商业记者陈浩谦(Chan Ho-him,音译)与马特·奥特(Matt Ott)对本文亦有贡献。

译者:中慧言-王芳

The split between Wall Street and most U.S. households grew wider Friday as U.S. stocks rose to the finish of their eighth straight winning week, the best such streak since 2023. That’s even though a survey showed U.S. consumers are feeling even worse about the economy.

The S&P 500 added 0.4% and pulled closer to its all-time high set in the middle of last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294 points, or 0.6%, and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.2%.

Ross Stores helped drive the market and rose 8.1% after the off-price retailer reported profit and revenue for the latest quarter that easily cleared analysts’ expectations. CEO Jim Conroy said it saw strong customer traffic through the three months, and the company may have benefited from households spending their tax refunds.

Estee Lauder jumped 11.9% after saying it was no longer considering a possible merger with Puig, the Spanish fragrance and beauty products company.

Workday rose 5.2%, and Zoom Communications jumped 9.2% after both delivered better profit reports for the latest quarter than analysts expected.

They’re the latest companies to top analysts’ expectations for earnings for the start of 2026, and the cavalcade of such reports has helped U.S. stocks remain near their records. Stock prices tend to follow the path of corporate profits over the long term.

The strength is coming even after a survey of U.S. consumers by the University of Michigan found sentiment fell to a record low, piercing below a bottom in 2022 when inflation peaked above 9%. Households are feeling worried about how bad inflation is now because of expensive oil created by the war with Iran.

U.S. consumers are forecasting inflation will worsen to 4.8% in the coming 12 months, up from a forecast of 4.7% last month, according to the survey. In the longer run, their forecasts for inflation jumped to 3.9% from 3.5% last month. Such rising expectations are a concern for economists because they can drive behavior that creates a vicious cycle that makes inflation worse.

Sentiment dropped in particular for lower-income consumers who are least able to absorb higher costs for essentials, and it fell for Republicans as well, according to the survey.

Helping to keep uncertainty high have been continued swings for oil prices. They yo-yoed again Friday, like they did through the week on uncertainty about when the United States and Iran may find a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The closure has prevented oil tankers from exiting the Persian Gulf and delivering crude to customers worldwide.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil to be delivered in August added 0.7% to settle at $100.21 after erasing an earlier decline.

Worries about inflation staying high have pushed bond yields higher worldwide, threatening to slow economies and undercut prices for stocks and all kinds of other investments. High yields have already forced the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate to its most expensive level since last summer, and they could curtail companies’ borrowing to build the AI data centers that have supported the U.S. economy’s growth recently.

Yields had been down Friday morning, offering some relief, before wavering after oil prices erased their losses and the survey on consumer sentiment showed worsening inflation expectations.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.56% from 4.57% late Thursday, but it remains well above its 3.97% level from before the war.

Worries about inflation have climbed so high that traders on Wall Street have eliminated bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its cuts to interest rates later this year. Lower rates would give the economy a boost, but they could also worsen inflation.

An important member of the Fed, Gov. Christopher Waller, said in a speech Friday, “If I believe inflation expectations start to become unanchored, I would not hesitate to support an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate.”

But he also said that is not the case now in his speech titled “Policy Risks Have Changed.” Instead, he said it “is time to simply sit and watch how the conflict and the data evolve.”

In stock markets abroad, indexes rose across Europe and Asia.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.7% to another record after a report showed inflation hitting a four-year low in April, at 1.4%, despite higher prices for oil and gas due to the war.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 27.75 points to 7,473.47. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 294.04 to 50,579.70, and the Nasdaq composite added 50.87 to 26,343.97.

AP Business Writers Chan Ho-him and Matt Ott contributed to this report.

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