上周日,美国股指期货走低,因为投资者不得不面对一个棘手的现实——霍尔木兹海峡仍处于关闭状态,而全球油市正濒临危险边缘。
道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌174点,跌幅0.35%;标普500指数期货下跌0.26%;纳斯达克指数期货则下跌0.32%。
美国原油期货上涨1.75%,至每桶107.26美元;布伦特原油上涨1.32%,至每桶110.70美元。黄金价格下跌0.37%,至每盎司4,545美元。
美元兑欧元上涨0.09%,兑日元上涨0.06%。10年期美国国债收益率则上升1.6个基点,至4.611%。
上周市场亢奋的乐观情绪在周五戛然而止。由于中美峰会未能取得突破性进展,市场原本期待借此重新开放霍尔木兹海峡、恢复原油运输的希望也随之落空。
鉴于能源价格引发的通胀短期内回落的希望愈发渺茫,全球债券遭遇猛烈抛售。美国、德国、日本和英国国债收益率全线飙升,股市则大幅下挫。由于华尔街正在消化更高加息概率的预期,美国30年期国债收益率更是二十年来首次升至5%。
与此同时,美伊谈判依旧陷入停滞,霍尔木兹海峡也因此持续关闭。由于外交渠道陷入僵局,特朗普总统正在重新评估军事方案。
据Axios报道,特朗普上周六已在自己位于弗吉尼亚州的高尔夫俱乐部,与国家安全团队成员讨论伊朗问题。白宫战情室定于周二再次召开相关会议。
特朗普对Axios表示, “留给伊朗的时间所剩无几”,并警告称,如果伊朗政府不能提出一份更有利的协议,“他们将遭受更猛烈的打击”。
但对全球油市而言,时间同样紧迫。原油短缺问题不断恶化,华尔街预警市场已迫近临界点。
摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)预测,到6月初,发达国家商业原油库存可能将“接近运营压力极限”。 凯投宏观(Capital Economics)则警告,到6月底,全球原油库存可能降至“危险低位”。
与此同时,瑞银集团(UBS)分析师也表示,当前全球原油库存正逼近历史低位,并警告称“市场缓冲库存现已基本耗尽”。
瑞银集团指出,随着库存进一步下降,油价波动可能会明显加剧,并强调“如果现货市场失衡加剧且霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭,市场甚至存在恐慌性抢购的风险”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
上周日,美国股指期货走低,因为投资者不得不面对一个棘手的现实——霍尔木兹海峡仍处于关闭状态,而全球油市正濒临危险边缘。
道琼斯工业平均指数期货下跌174点,跌幅0.35%;标普500指数期货下跌0.26%;纳斯达克指数期货则下跌0.32%。
美国原油期货上涨1.75%,至每桶107.26美元;布伦特原油上涨1.32%,至每桶110.70美元。黄金价格下跌0.37%,至每盎司4,545美元。
美元兑欧元上涨0.09%,兑日元上涨0.06%。10年期美国国债收益率则上升1.6个基点,至4.611%。
上周市场亢奋的乐观情绪在周五戛然而止。由于中美峰会未能取得突破性进展,市场原本期待借此重新开放霍尔木兹海峡、恢复原油运输的希望也随之落空。
鉴于能源价格引发的通胀短期内回落的希望愈发渺茫,全球债券遭遇猛烈抛售。美国、德国、日本和英国国债收益率全线飙升,股市则大幅下挫。由于华尔街正在消化更高加息概率的预期,美国30年期国债收益率更是二十年来首次升至5%。
与此同时,美伊谈判依旧陷入停滞,霍尔木兹海峡也因此持续关闭。由于外交渠道陷入僵局,特朗普总统正在重新评估军事方案。
据Axios报道,特朗普上周六已在自己位于弗吉尼亚州的高尔夫俱乐部,与国家安全团队成员讨论伊朗问题。白宫战情室定于周二再次召开相关会议。
特朗普对Axios表示, “留给伊朗的时间所剩无几”,并警告称,如果伊朗政府不能提出一份更有利的协议,“他们将遭受更猛烈的打击”。
但对全球油市而言,时间同样紧迫。原油短缺问题不断恶化,华尔街预警市场已迫近临界点。
摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)预测,到6月初,发达国家商业原油库存可能将“接近运营压力极限”。 凯投宏观(Capital Economics)则警告,到6月底,全球原油库存可能降至“危险低位”。
与此同时,瑞银集团(UBS)分析师也表示,当前全球原油库存正逼近历史低位,并警告称“市场缓冲库存现已基本耗尽”。
瑞银集团指出,随着库存进一步下降,油价波动可能会明显加剧,并强调“如果现货市场失衡加剧且霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭,市场甚至存在恐慌性抢购的风险”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Stock futures dipped Sunday as investors were forced to confront the inconvenient reality that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed with oil markets edging closer to a cliff’s edge.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones industrial average fell 174 points, or 0.35%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.26%, and Nasdaq futures lost 0.32%.
U.S. oil futures rose 1.75% to $107.26 a barrel, while Brent crude climbed 1.32% to $110.70. Gold fell 0.37% to $4,545 per ounce.
The U.S. dollar was up 0.09% against the euro and up 0.06% against the yen. The yield on the 10-year Treasury climbed 1.6 basis points to 4.611%.
Last week’s euphoria came to screeching halt on Friday, when the U.S.-China summit failed to produce a breakthrough that would reopen the strait and allow oil supplies to flow again.
Given the fading hopes that energy-fueled inflation will come back down soon, bonds sold off sharply, with U.S., German, Japanese, and U.K. yields all soaring while stocks tumbled. For the first time in two decades, the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5% as Wall Street priced in greater odds for rate hikes.
At the same time, talks between the U.S. and Iran have stalled, keeping the strait shut. Frustrated that the diplomatic channel remains in limbo, President Donald Trump is weighing his military options.
Axios reported that he met with members of his national security team at his Virginia golf club on Saturday to discuss Iran. Another meeting in the White House Situation Room is planned for Tuesday.
Trump told Axios “the clock is ticking” for Iran and warned if the regime doesn’t make a better deal “they are going to get hit much harder.”
But the clock is also ticking on the oil market. Shortages are worsening, and Wall Street sees an imminent tipping point ahead.
JPMorgan predicted that commercial oil inventories in the developed world could “approach operational stress levels” by early June. Capital Economics warned oil stockpiles could reach “critically low levels” by the end of June.
Similarly, analysts at UBS also said oil inventories are approaching record lows, warning that “buffers have now largely been exhausted.”
As stockpiles go even lower, UBS said oil prices could become more volatile and highlighted the “risk of panic buying if physical dislocation intensifies and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.”