
欧盟与南美四国之间具有里程碑意义的自由贸易协定谈判启动时,欧元尚未流通、中国尚未加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)、委内瑞拉仍是美国最大的石油供应国。
然而,在截然不同的地缘政治背景和重重阻力下——包括来自强大的贸易保护主义游说团体的反对——欧盟与南方共同市场(Mercosur,简称“南共市”)于1月17日在巴拉圭举行的仪式上,正式签署这项酝酿了长达25年的贸易协定。
这是南共市的首个重大贸易协议。该联盟包括巴西和阿根廷这两个地区最大经济体,以及巴拉圭和乌拉圭。最新加入的成员玻利维亚未参与谈判,但可在未来数年内加入该协议。
这项跨大西洋贸易协定将取消从阿根廷牛排、巴西铜材到德国汽车、意大利葡萄酒等一系列产品的关税,但仍需获得欧洲议会的批准。
在唐纳德·特朗普推动美国退出国际经济体系之际,打造一个覆盖7亿多人口、约占全球GDP四分之一的全球最大自由贸易区之一,其意义对签署国不言而喻。
该协定无关中美贸易对决
欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩称赞这项协定是“面对一个日益敌对、愈发交易化的世界”,对多边主义的有力背书。80岁的巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦则将其称为罕见的“对话、谈判以及合作信念的胜利”。
专家指出,这一胜利是以牺牲美国和中国的利益为代价:一方面,特朗普正强势主张美国在资源丰富的南美地区的权威;另一方面,中国则通过庞大的贸易规模和贷款来扩大自身影响力。
华盛顿智库昆西治国方略研究所(Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)全球南方项目的研究助理李·施伦克表示:“这表明南美经济体正在寻求规避中美之间的大国竞争。”
“这表明,南美仍能在国际舞台上展现实力,实现贸易伙伴多元化,并行使其常被剥夺的一定程度的自主权。”
南美牧场主喜迎曙光
该协定将使以土地肥沃、农民技艺精湛著称的南美国家,能以优惠税率,通过更多渠道进入欧洲庞大的农产品市场。
在阿根廷,出口商估计,由于该协定立即取消欧盟长期实行的高品质牛肉进口配额下20%的关税,他们每年可节省数千万美元成本。
这对阿根廷而言是一项重大突破。过去几十年里,该国一直由左翼民粹政府主导,经济封闭,优先保障国内市场,甚至不惜对农产品出口征税,以此来压低国内食品价格。
布宜诺斯艾利斯省卡纽埃拉斯牲畜市场的负责人卡洛斯·科伦博表示:“我们正在经历一场模式的转变。”该市场每天交易超过1.2万头牛,其中许多牲畜最终出口至欧洲和中国。“阿根廷已重新向世界开放。”
阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱或许是特朗普在拉美最坚定的意识形态盟友,两人都对联合国和《巴黎气候协定》嗤之以鼻,但没人会把这位激进的自由主义者称为贸易保护主义者。
起初,他曾嘲讽以行动迟缓著称的南共市无足轻重,并威胁退出该组织。但在意识到该联盟有能力清除关税壁垒、简化海关手续后,他改变了态度。
专注国际贸易的阿根廷经济分析师马塞洛·埃利松多表示:“他将这项协定视为重振南共市并赋予其新意义的途径。”
这股自由贸易热潮也开始席卷长期处于封闭状态的巴西经济。巴西政府投资机构巴西出口投资促进局(Apex)估计,未来几年,出口至欧盟的速溶咖啡、禽肉和橙汁等农产品,将带来70亿美元的收入。
欧洲农民游说团体赢得让步
在环保法规的压力下,再加上对大西洋彼岸廉价食品大量涌入的担忧,欧洲农民封堵高速公路,涌上多国首都街头,以一场声势浩大的抗议行动表达对这项协定的愤怒。
在长达数十年的谈判过程中,欧盟一直在竭力安抚农民的担忧:在协定中加入环境保护和动物福利保障条款,并对南美肉类和糖类出口设定严格配额,以确保本土农产品保持竞争力。
尽管如此,愤怒的农民最终还是说服了法国、波兰以及少数其他国家,在上周的欧盟内部表决中投下反对票,使该协定的支持者所期待的“团结一致”的局面化为泡影。直到欧盟承诺向农民提供高达520亿美元的巨额补贴后,意大利等农业大国才转而支持该协定。
彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)非常驻高级研究员雅各布·丰克·柯克加德表示:“这是一笔相当可观的补偿。欧盟领导人认定,在当前形势下,这项协定的重要性值得让他们付出这样的代价。”
“牛肉换汽车”
有人将该协定戏称为“牛肉换汽车”,这一说法也折射出外界的普遍看法:欧洲汽车产业也将成为大赢家。
在中国竞争加剧和美国高额关税的双重打击下,大众(Volkswagen)、宝马(BMW)等备受推崇的德国汽车巨头乐于看到该协定对欧洲汽车行业的提振效果;欧洲的制药、建筑和机械行业生产商,也将获得进入数亿新增消费者市场的机会。
专家表示,取消对汽车零部件和整车35%的关税,为欧洲工业出口商提供了一个难得的机会,使其得以从价格更低的中国竞争对手手中夺回南美市场份额。
欧洲对外关系委员会(European Council on Foreign Relations)高级政策研究员阿加特·德马雷表示:“如果未能签署欧盟-南共市自由贸易协定,拉美经济体恐将进一步向中国靠拢。”
但许多人仍在屏息以待,因为他们见证过谈判多年拖沓推进,却在最后关头功亏一篑的情形。
科伦博表示:“还有若干步骤需要完成……而且欧洲的态度仍然非常谨慎。”此时,牛仔们正将哞哞叫的数百头牛赶上卡车,喧闹声几乎盖过了他的声音。
“别忘了,这是一份具有历史意义的协定。我们以前从未达成过这样的协定。”
本报道由美联社驻圣保罗记者毛里西奥·萨瓦雷塞协助完成。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
欧盟与南美四国之间具有里程碑意义的自由贸易协定谈判启动时,欧元尚未流通、中国尚未加入世界贸易组织(World Trade Organization)、委内瑞拉仍是美国最大的石油供应国。
然而,在截然不同的地缘政治背景和重重阻力下——包括来自强大的贸易保护主义游说团体的反对——欧盟与南方共同市场(Mercosur,简称“南共市”)于1月17日在巴拉圭举行的仪式上,正式签署这项酝酿了长达25年的贸易协定。
这是南共市的首个重大贸易协议。该联盟包括巴西和阿根廷这两个地区最大经济体,以及巴拉圭和乌拉圭。最新加入的成员玻利维亚未参与谈判,但可在未来数年内加入该协议。
这项跨大西洋贸易协定将取消从阿根廷牛排、巴西铜材到德国汽车、意大利葡萄酒等一系列产品的关税,但仍需获得欧洲议会的批准。
在唐纳德·特朗普推动美国退出国际经济体系之际,打造一个覆盖7亿多人口、约占全球GDP四分之一的全球最大自由贸易区之一,其意义对签署国不言而喻。
该协定无关中美贸易对决
欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩称赞这项协定是“面对一个日益敌对、愈发交易化的世界”,对多边主义的有力背书。80岁的巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦则将其称为罕见的“对话、谈判以及合作信念的胜利”。
专家指出,这一胜利是以牺牲美国和中国的利益为代价:一方面,特朗普正强势主张美国在资源丰富的南美地区的权威;另一方面,中国则通过庞大的贸易规模和贷款来扩大自身影响力。
华盛顿智库昆西治国方略研究所(Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft)全球南方项目的研究助理李·施伦克表示:“这表明南美经济体正在寻求规避中美之间的大国竞争。”
“这表明,南美仍能在国际舞台上展现实力,实现贸易伙伴多元化,并行使其常被剥夺的一定程度的自主权。”
南美牧场主喜迎曙光
该协定将使以土地肥沃、农民技艺精湛著称的南美国家,能以优惠税率,通过更多渠道进入欧洲庞大的农产品市场。
在阿根廷,出口商估计,由于该协定立即取消欧盟长期实行的高品质牛肉进口配额下20%的关税,他们每年可节省数千万美元成本。
这对阿根廷而言是一项重大突破。过去几十年里,该国一直由左翼民粹政府主导,经济封闭,优先保障国内市场,甚至不惜对农产品出口征税,以此来压低国内食品价格。
布宜诺斯艾利斯省卡纽埃拉斯牲畜市场的负责人卡洛斯·科伦博表示:“我们正在经历一场模式的转变。”该市场每天交易超过1.2万头牛,其中许多牲畜最终出口至欧洲和中国。“阿根廷已重新向世界开放。”
阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱或许是特朗普在拉美最坚定的意识形态盟友,两人都对联合国和《巴黎气候协定》嗤之以鼻,但没人会把这位激进的自由主义者称为贸易保护主义者。
起初,他曾嘲讽以行动迟缓著称的南共市无足轻重,并威胁退出该组织。但在意识到该联盟有能力清除关税壁垒、简化海关手续后,他改变了态度。
专注国际贸易的阿根廷经济分析师马塞洛·埃利松多表示:“他将这项协定视为重振南共市并赋予其新意义的途径。”
这股自由贸易热潮也开始席卷长期处于封闭状态的巴西经济。巴西政府投资机构巴西出口投资促进局(Apex)估计,未来几年,出口至欧盟的速溶咖啡、禽肉和橙汁等农产品,将带来70亿美元的收入。
欧洲农民游说团体赢得让步
在环保法规的压力下,再加上对大西洋彼岸廉价食品大量涌入的担忧,欧洲农民封堵高速公路,涌上多国首都街头,以一场声势浩大的抗议行动表达对这项协定的愤怒。
在长达数十年的谈判过程中,欧盟一直在竭力安抚农民的担忧:在协定中加入环境保护和动物福利保障条款,并对南美肉类和糖类出口设定严格配额,以确保本土农产品保持竞争力。
尽管如此,愤怒的农民最终还是说服了法国、波兰以及少数其他国家,在上周的欧盟内部表决中投下反对票,使该协定的支持者所期待的“团结一致”的局面化为泡影。直到欧盟承诺向农民提供高达520亿美元的巨额补贴后,意大利等农业大国才转而支持该协定。
彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)非常驻高级研究员雅各布·丰克·柯克加德表示:“这是一笔相当可观的补偿。欧盟领导人认定,在当前形势下,这项协定的重要性值得让他们付出这样的代价。”
“牛肉换汽车”
有人将该协定戏称为“牛肉换汽车”,这一说法也折射出外界的普遍看法:欧洲汽车产业也将成为大赢家。
在中国竞争加剧和美国高额关税的双重打击下,大众(Volkswagen)、宝马(BMW)等备受推崇的德国汽车巨头乐于看到该协定对欧洲汽车行业的提振效果;欧洲的制药、建筑和机械行业生产商,也将获得进入数亿新增消费者市场的机会。
专家表示,取消对汽车零部件和整车35%的关税,为欧洲工业出口商提供了一个难得的机会,使其得以从价格更低的中国竞争对手手中夺回南美市场份额。
欧洲对外关系委员会(European Council on Foreign Relations)高级政策研究员阿加特·德马雷表示:“如果未能签署欧盟-南共市自由贸易协定,拉美经济体恐将进一步向中国靠拢。”
但许多人仍在屏息以待,因为他们见证过谈判多年拖沓推进,却在最后关头功亏一篑的情形。
科伦博表示:“还有若干步骤需要完成……而且欧洲的态度仍然非常谨慎。”此时,牛仔们正将哞哞叫的数百头牛赶上卡车,喧闹声几乎盖过了他的声音。
“别忘了,这是一份具有历史意义的协定。我们以前从未达成过这样的协定。”
本报道由美联社驻圣保罗记者毛里西奥·萨瓦雷塞协助完成。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Talks on a landmark free trade deal between the European Union and four South American countries started so long ago that the euro wasn’t even in circulation, China hadn’t yet joined the World Trade Organization and Venezuela was still America’s top oil provider.
But against a starkly different geopolitical background and tough odds — including backlash from powerful protectionist lobbies — the EU and the South American alliance known as Mercosur are expected to formally sign their quarter-century-in-the-making trade pact this Saturday at a ceremony in Paraguay.
This is the first major trade agreement for Mercosur, which includes the region’s two biggest economies, Brazil and Argentina, along with Paraguay and Uruguay. Bolivia, the newest member, was not involved in negotiations but can join the agreement in the coming years.
The trans-Atlantic trade deal — lifting tariffs on products ranging from Argentine steaks and Brazilian copper to German cars and Italian wine — still has to be ratified by the European Parliament.
The significance of creating one of the world’s largest free-trade zones — home to more than 700 million people and accounting for a quarter of global gross domestic product — while President Donald Trump yanks the United States out of the international economy is not lost on the signatories.
For once, it’s not about Trump vs. China
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailed the deal last week as a powerful endorsement of multilateralism “in the face of an increasingly hostile and transactional world.” Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, called it a rare “victory for dialogue, negotiation and the bet on cooperation.”
That victory comes at the expense of the U.S. and China, experts say, as Trump aggressively asserts American authority in the resource-rich region and Beijing uses its massive trade and loans to build influence.
“It’s a signal that South American economies are seeking to hedge away from this great power competition between the U.S. and China,” said Lee Schlenker, a research associate with the Global South program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a Washington think tank.
“It shows that South America can continue to flex its muscles in the international sphere, to diversify its trade partners and exert a certain level of autonomy it’s often denied.”
South American ranchers rejoice
The accord grants South American nations, renowned for their fertile land and skilled farmers, increased access at a preferential tax rate to Europe’s vast market for agricultural goods.
Here in Argentina, exporters reckon they’ll save tens of millions of dollars a year thanks to the deal’s immediate elimination of a 20% tariff on the EU’s long-standing quota scheme for high-quality meat imports.
It’s a breakthrough for Argentina, a nation dominated for decades by left-leaning populist governments that kept the economy closed to the outside world and prioritized the domestic market to the extent of imposing taxes on farm exports to keep food prices down.
“We’re in the midst of a paradigm shift here,” said Carlos Colombo, the president of Cañuelas Cattle Market in Buenos Aires province where over 12,000 cattle are sold daily, many destined for Europe and China. “Argentina has reopened itself to the world.”
Argentine President Javier Milei may be Trump’s strongest ideological ally in Latin America — sharing his disdain for the United Nations and the Paris climate accord — but no one can call the radical libertarian a protectionist.
At first he derided the notoriously slow-moving Mercosur as irrelevant and threatened to ditch it. But he changed his tune since realizing the bloc’s potential to sweep away tariffs and slash customs red tape.
“He sees this agreement as a way to revitalize and re-signify Mercosur,” said Marcelo Elizondo, an Argentine economic analyst specializing in international trade.
The free-trade fever has also infected Brazil’s long-closed economy. Apex, a Brazilian government investment agency, estimates that EU-bound agricultural exports like instant coffee, poultry and orange juice will rake in $7 billion in coming years.
Europe’s farmer lobby wins concessions
Squeezed by environmental regulations and fearing a flood of cheap food products from across the Atlantic, farmers have blocked highways and descended on the streets of European capitals in an explosion of outrage against the agreement.
The EU has scrambled to soothe their concerns over decades of negotiations, adding environmental and animal welfare safeguards to the accord and imposing strict quotas for South American exports of meat and sugar to ensure homegrown produce stays competitive.
Even so, the angry farmers ultimately persuaded France, Poland and a few other states to oppose the deal in last week’s internal EU vote, depriving the accord’s supporters of what they hoped would be a show of unity. Italy and other agricultural powerhouses only came around after the EU offered farmers generous subsidies to the tune of $52 billion.
“It’s a sizable bribe,” said Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “EU leaders decided that the deal is so important at this moment, it’s worth it.”
‘Cows for cars’
Some have dubbed the deal “cows for cars,” reflecting the perception that Europe’s auto industry will also win big.
Clobbered by growing competition with China and sky-high U.S. tariffs, vaunted German auto giants like Volkswagen and BMW are glad for the boost, as are producers in Europe’s pharmaceutical, construction and machinery sectors gaining access to hundreds of millions more consumers.
Experts say that the elimination of 35% tariffs on auto parts and cars gives European industrial exporters a rare chance to claw back their South American market share from cheaper Chinese rivals.
“Failing to sign the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement risked pushing Latin American economies closer to Beijing’s orbit,” said Agathe Demarais, a senior policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations.
But many are still are holding their breath, having watched negotiations lumber along for years only to trip up at the last minute.
“There are still several steps that have to be taken … and Europe continues to be very careful,” Colombo said, straining to be heard over the hollers of cowboys prodding hundreds of bellowing cattle into trucks.
“Let’s not forget, this is historic. We’ve never reached an agreement like this before.”
Associated Press writer Mauricio Savarese in Sao Paulo contributed to this report.