
摩根大通分析师表示,唐纳德·特朗普的下一财年1.5万亿美元国防预算申请,创下了数代人以来的最大增幅,旨在推动国防工业转型。
尽管美国国会不太可能为政府申请的全部预算项目拨款,但在预算审批程序启动之际,该提案仍体现了特朗普的施政重点。
摩根大通在周一发布的报告中指出:“当前全球安全环境愈发脱离规则约束,转向依赖武力,这不断给国防开支带来上行压力;与此同时,特朗普政府正寻求重塑美国国防工业基础,更多资本正涌入该领域。”
毋庸置疑,国防预算在国会获得通过将会经历漫长过程,甚至可能拖到中期选举之后。若民主党夺回国会控制权,这笔巨额国防开支在政治层面恐难以推进,尤其是考虑到特朗普试图削减社会福利项目开支,以在一定程度上抵消其他领域的支出增长。
目前,美国国防部的初步预算计划将2027财年(即今年10月开始)的预算总额增加44%,其中投资部分将激增77%。
“具体而言,这将是1951年以来美国国防预算的最大单年涨幅——《国家安全委员会第68号文件》出台及朝鲜战争爆发后,美国国防预算在1951年飙升3.4倍至480亿美元。”摩根大通指出,并援引了这份1950年出台的、具有里程碑意义的国家安全委员会文件,该文件将苏联列为美国面临的最严重威胁。
分析师指出,此次拟议的预算涨幅将远超1981年25%的涨幅——当年罗纳德·里根总统启动军备扩张计划,重启了与其口中“邪恶帝国”(他对苏联的惯用称呼)的冷战军备竞赛。
与此同时,74%的投资增长将推动武器采购在两年内翻一番以上,进而推动国防工业基础转型,使其规模更大、速度更快、抗风险能力更强,同时吸纳民用领域先进技术。
国防部持续采购最尖端武器,也进一步推高了采购成本。摩根大通指出,特朗普的预算案甚至新增了多项“高精尖”武器,包括新型战列舰与天基导弹拦截器。
为何不能二者兼顾?
尽管乌克兰通过量产低成本无人机成功抵御俄罗斯入侵,为现代战争提供了重要借鉴,但美国国防部仍在推进“高精尖”武器研发。
摩根大通表示:“显然,美国国防部从中得到的经验,并非放弃高精尖武器系统、转向低成本分布式作战能力建设,而是实现二者兼顾。”
美国各军种都在推进无人机或低成本导弹项目,也在同步推进下一代高精尖作战平台项目,例如单架造价可能高达3亿美元的新型F-47战斗机,以及单架成本可能超6亿美元的B-21隐形轰炸机。
伊朗战争再次凸显了低成本武器的实战效能。尽管伊朗军方已遭受重创,但该国凭借大量低成本的“沙赫德”无人机,仍能封锁霍尔木兹海峡,并在波斯湾周边地区造成严重破坏,包括对美军基地发起攻击。
伊朗发起的报复性打击,还迫使美国及其盟友消耗大量造价高昂的拦截弹库存。这一战术凸显了当前战争残酷的成本博弈:用单枚造价数百万美元的导弹拦截单架成本仅数万美元的无人机。
长期以来,美国始终将研发最先进武器列为优先事项,以保持对所有军事对手的技术优势。但近几十年来,技术迭代速度持续加快,武器成本急剧攀升,美国国防部已难以跟上这一节奏。
廉价商用无人机技术的出现,彻底改写了这一格局,乌克兰军队采用的新战术便是有力证明。这场已持续四年的冲突重塑了战争形态。如今,战场伤亡主要由无人武器造成——小型第一人称视角无人机可精准追踪并打击单个士兵或车辆。乌克兰国防工业已完成转型,可大规模生产低成本无人机,用于击落俄罗斯从伊朗引进的“沙赫德”无人机。
前中央情报局局长、退役上将戴维·彼得雷乌斯(David Petraeus)上月表示:“如今,乌克兰每年可生产700万架无人机,这便是未来战争的发展方向。过去一年,他们生产了350万架无人机,基本上每天使用9000到10000架无人机。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
摩根大通分析师表示,唐纳德·特朗普的下一财年1.5万亿美元国防预算申请,创下了数代人以来的最大增幅,旨在推动国防工业转型。
尽管美国国会不太可能为政府申请的全部预算项目拨款,但在预算审批程序启动之际,该提案仍体现了特朗普的施政重点。
摩根大通在周一发布的报告中指出:“当前全球安全环境愈发脱离规则约束,转向依赖武力,这不断给国防开支带来上行压力;与此同时,特朗普政府正寻求重塑美国国防工业基础,更多资本正涌入该领域。”
毋庸置疑,国防预算在国会获得通过将会经历漫长过程,甚至可能拖到中期选举之后。若民主党夺回国会控制权,这笔巨额国防开支在政治层面恐难以推进,尤其是考虑到特朗普试图削减社会福利项目开支,以在一定程度上抵消其他领域的支出增长。
目前,美国国防部的初步预算计划将2027财年(即今年10月开始)的预算总额增加44%,其中投资部分将激增77%。
“具体而言,这将是1951年以来美国国防预算的最大单年涨幅——《国家安全委员会第68号文件》出台及朝鲜战争爆发后,美国国防预算在1951年飙升3.4倍至480亿美元。”摩根大通指出,并援引了这份1950年出台的、具有里程碑意义的国家安全委员会文件,该文件将苏联列为美国面临的最严重威胁。
分析师指出,此次拟议的预算涨幅将远超1981年25%的涨幅——当年罗纳德·里根总统启动军备扩张计划,重启了与其口中“邪恶帝国”(他对苏联的惯用称呼)的冷战军备竞赛。
与此同时,74%的投资增长将推动武器采购在两年内翻一番以上,进而推动国防工业基础转型,使其规模更大、速度更快、抗风险能力更强,同时吸纳民用领域先进技术。
国防部持续采购最尖端武器,也进一步推高了采购成本。摩根大通指出,特朗普的预算案甚至新增了多项“高精尖”武器,包括新型战列舰与天基导弹拦截器。
为何不能二者兼顾?
尽管乌克兰通过量产低成本无人机成功抵御俄罗斯入侵,为现代战争提供了重要借鉴,但美国国防部仍在推进“高精尖”武器研发。
摩根大通表示:“显然,美国国防部从中得到的经验,并非放弃高精尖武器系统、转向低成本分布式作战能力建设,而是实现二者兼顾。”
美国各军种都在推进无人机或低成本导弹项目,也在同步推进下一代高精尖作战平台项目,例如单架造价可能高达3亿美元的新型F-47战斗机,以及单架成本可能超6亿美元的B-21隐形轰炸机。
伊朗战争再次凸显了低成本武器的实战效能。尽管伊朗军方已遭受重创,但该国凭借大量低成本的“沙赫德”无人机,仍能封锁霍尔木兹海峡,并在波斯湾周边地区造成严重破坏,包括对美军基地发起攻击。
伊朗发起的报复性打击,还迫使美国及其盟友消耗大量造价高昂的拦截弹库存。这一战术凸显了当前战争残酷的成本博弈:用单枚造价数百万美元的导弹拦截单架成本仅数万美元的无人机。
长期以来,美国始终将研发最先进武器列为优先事项,以保持对所有军事对手的技术优势。但近几十年来,技术迭代速度持续加快,武器成本急剧攀升,美国国防部已难以跟上这一节奏。
廉价商用无人机技术的出现,彻底改写了这一格局,乌克兰军队采用的新战术便是有力证明。这场已持续四年的冲突重塑了战争形态。如今,战场伤亡主要由无人武器造成——小型第一人称视角无人机可精准追踪并打击单个士兵或车辆。乌克兰国防工业已完成转型,可大规模生产低成本无人机,用于击落俄罗斯从伊朗引进的“沙赫德”无人机。
前中央情报局局长、退役上将戴维·彼得雷乌斯(David Petraeus)上月表示:“如今,乌克兰每年可生产700万架无人机,这便是未来战争的发展方向。过去一年,他们生产了350万架无人机,基本上每天使用9000到10000架无人机。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
President Donald Trump’s $1.5 trillion Pentagon budget request for the upcoming fiscal year represents the biggest increase in generations and seeks to transform the industry, according to analysts at JPMorgan.
While Congress is unlikely to fund everything the administration wants, the proposal still signals where Trump’s priorities are as the budget process begins.
“A global security environment that is less reliant on norms and more reliant on force continues to put upward pressure on defense spending; at the same time, the Trump administration is seeking to remake the U.S. defense industrial base, and there is more capital entering the sector as well,” JPMorgan said in a note on Monday.
To be sure, getting a defense budget through Congress could drag on, perhaps even past the midterm elections. If Democrats take control, massive defensive spending could be a political nonstarter, especially as Trump looks to cut social programs to partly offset hikes elsewhere.
For now, the top-line Pentagon budget calls for a 44% increase in fiscal year 2027, which begins this October, including a 77% jump in investments.
“To contextualize, this would be the biggest single year increase since the budget increased 3.4x to $48B in 1951 on the heels of NSC 68 and the Korean War,” JPMorgan said, referring to a seminal National Security Council paper from 1950 that singled out the Soviet Union as the most serious threat to the U.S.
Analysts pointed out that the proposed increase would also dwarf the 25% jump in 1981, when President Ronald Reagan began his military buildup as he reignited a Cold War competition against the “evil empire,” his preferred phrase for the Soviet Union.
Meanwhile, the 74% investment boost would result in weapons procurement more than doubling over a two-year period to spur transformation of the defense industrial base, making it larger, faster, and more resilient, while advanced technologies from the civilian sector are incorporated.
The price tag for procurement is also elevated by the Pentagon’s continued commitment to acquiring the most cutting-edge weapons. JPMorgan noted that Trump’s budget has even added more “exquisite” weapons, like a new class of battleship and space-based missile interceptors.
Why not both?
That’s despite lessons from Ukraine’s success fighting off the Russian invasion by relying on the production of mass quantities of low-cost drones.
“The apparent lesson at DOD, however, has not been to move the U.S. away from exquisite systems and toward low-cost, distributed capability, but to have both,” JPMorgan said.
While the different branches of the armed forces are each pursuing drones or low-cost missiles, they are also staying the course with exquisite, next-generation platforms like a new F-47 fighter that could cost $300 million each and the B-21 stealth bomber that could top $600 million each.
But the Iran war has also highlighted the effectiveness of low-cost weapons. While the regime’s military has been decimated, its waves of cheap Shahed drones are still able to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and inflict major damage around the Persian Gulf—including on U.S. military bases.
Iran’s retaliatory barrage has also forced the U.S. and its allies to draw down expensive stockpiles of interceptors. The tactic highlights the brutal economics of the current war: Missiles that cost millions of dollars each are shooting down drones that cost tens of thousands of dollars.
The U.S. has long prioritized the most advanced weapons to maintain superiority against any military rivals. But as the pace of technological improvements accelerated in recent decades, costs have ballooned, and the Pentagon has struggled to keep up.
The advent of cheap commercial drone technology changed the equation dramatically, as demonstrated by the Ukrainian military’s adoption of new tactics. That four-year-old conflict has transformed warfare. Unmanned weapons are now responsible for most battlefield casualties as small first-person view drones hunt down individual troops or vehicles. Ukraine’s defense industry has also evolved to mass-produce inexpensive drones that can take down Russia-launched Shaheds from Iran.
“The future of warfare is Ukraine producing 7 million drones per year right now,” former CIA director and retired Gen. David Petraeus said last month. “This past year, they produced 3.5 million. That enabled them basically to use 9,000 to 10,000 drones per day.”