
美股七巨头股价较其52周高点下跌超10%;伊朗战争让本就充满不确定性的人工智能板块雪上加霜。
微软(Microsoft)受此次回调冲击最为严重,股价较10月峰值下跌约32%,或将创下公司史上最糟糕的年度开局。Meta股价下跌约25%,Alphabet股价较2月收盘高点下跌约15%。就连人工智能板块的“宠儿”英伟达(Nvidia)和表现强劲的亚马逊(Amazon),今年股价也呈跌势。追踪这七家公司的彭博指数显示,该指数于3月中旬进入回调区间,收盘价较去年10月创下的历史高点下跌逾10%。
此次抛售标志着过去数年人工智能热潮推动的上涨行情出现急剧逆转,该指数在2023年上涨107%,2024年上涨67%,2025年上涨25%。目前,多重利空因素正同时冲击该板块。自2月28日“史诗怒火行动”发起以来,油价飙升,重新点燃了通胀预期,并改变了利率前景。根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具,市场目前预计美联储年底前加息的可能性高于降息,而此前宽松的利率环境,正是成长股看涨逻辑的核心支柱。
与此同时,市场对人工智能基础设施支出的热情已然消退,当前态度更趋恐慌而非期待。谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Meta这四家科技巨头2026年的资本支出总额预计将超过6500亿美元,较2025年增长约60%。机构资金似乎已从这些大型科技股中撤出,转而流向能源、工业和国内制造业板块。
人们将部分科技股市值的快速缩水与当年的互联网泡沫破裂事件相类比。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)在上周五发布的一份报告中指出,标普500指数的信息技术板块估值已与其他板块趋同,这一走势与20世纪末互联网泡沫破裂前几个月的情形如出一辙。
不过,凯投宏观认为,尽管这些科技股股价下跌,但其盈利预期仍在,因此不宜过度悲观地将此次行情与互联网泡沫破裂事件相类比。
尽管该机构警告称,若冲突长期持续,标普500指数最终可能跌至6000点,但其核心观点是,人工智能基础设施建设不会因战争而受阻,估值回升将推动美股在今年下半年重回高位。
高级市场经济学家詹姆斯·赖利(James Reilly)写道:“鉴于美国科技股将跑赢大盘,且美国经济受此次冲突的影响似乎小于多数国家,我们认为美股的表现将持续优于其他市场。”
近日,多起争议事件也对美股七巨头形成了冲击。瑞银(UBS)直言微软的Copilot人工智能产品表现不及市场预期;Meta刚在一场具有里程碑意义的社交媒体成瘾诉讼案中败诉;此外,这些公司的许多人工智能愿景都与OpenAI紧密相关,而OpenAI刚刚终止了与迪士尼(Disney)的一笔巨额交易,试图巩固自身在好莱坞的地位。
部分投资者在市场动荡中看到了机遇。Edwards Asset Management首席投资官罗伯特·爱德华兹(Robert Edwards)认为,当前大型科技股的收益率已接近国债收益率,且鉴于这些公司资产负债表强劲、实际盈利持续增长,当前价位的科技股颇具吸引力。
爱德华兹表示:“大型科技股估值合理,且具备真正的增长潜力。”
但逢低买入者并未在本轮回调中入场,背后是有原因的。事实上,尽管唐纳德·特朗普进一步推迟了针对伊朗能源基础设施的打击计划,纳斯达克指数上周五仍大跌2%。
这场战争带来的不确定性,是传统估值框架无法完全定价的;而霍尔木兹海峡封锁事件再度引发了人们对美国其他潜在脆弱环节的关注,包括中国台湾省的相关风险,目前该地区尚未建立半导体战略储备。
投资者似乎已对特朗普在战事上反复无常的表态感到厌倦,转而开始直接关注以色列持续空袭伊朗、伊朗发起反击所释放的信号。截至发稿时,伊朗仍完全控制着霍尔木兹海峡。全球20%的石油需经此海峡运输,且伊朗正考虑对过往船只征收通行费。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
美股七巨头股价较其52周高点下跌超10%;伊朗战争让本就充满不确定性的人工智能板块雪上加霜。
微软(Microsoft)受此次回调冲击最为严重,股价较10月峰值下跌约32%,或将创下公司史上最糟糕的年度开局。Meta股价下跌约25%,Alphabet股价较2月收盘高点下跌约15%。就连人工智能板块的“宠儿”英伟达(Nvidia)和表现强劲的亚马逊(Amazon),今年股价也呈跌势。追踪这七家公司的彭博指数显示,该指数于3月中旬进入回调区间,收盘价较去年10月创下的历史高点下跌逾10%。
此次抛售标志着过去数年人工智能热潮推动的上涨行情出现急剧逆转,该指数在2023年上涨107%,2024年上涨67%,2025年上涨25%。目前,多重利空因素正同时冲击该板块。自2月28日“史诗怒火行动”发起以来,油价飙升,重新点燃了通胀预期,并改变了利率前景。根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的FedWatch工具,市场目前预计美联储年底前加息的可能性高于降息,而此前宽松的利率环境,正是成长股看涨逻辑的核心支柱。
与此同时,市场对人工智能基础设施支出的热情已然消退,当前态度更趋恐慌而非期待。谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Meta这四家科技巨头2026年的资本支出总额预计将超过6500亿美元,较2025年增长约60%。机构资金似乎已从这些大型科技股中撤出,转而流向能源、工业和国内制造业板块。
人们将部分科技股市值的快速缩水与当年的互联网泡沫破裂事件相类比。凯投宏观(Capital Economics)在上周五发布的一份报告中指出,标普500指数的信息技术板块估值已与其他板块趋同,这一走势与20世纪末互联网泡沫破裂前几个月的情形如出一辙。
不过,凯投宏观认为,尽管这些科技股股价下跌,但其盈利预期仍在,因此不宜过度悲观地将此次行情与互联网泡沫破裂事件相类比。
尽管该机构警告称,若冲突长期持续,标普500指数最终可能跌至6000点,但其核心观点是,人工智能基础设施建设不会因战争而受阻,估值回升将推动美股在今年下半年重回高位。
高级市场经济学家詹姆斯·赖利(James Reilly)写道:“鉴于美国科技股将跑赢大盘,且美国经济受此次冲突的影响似乎小于多数国家,我们认为美股的表现将持续优于其他市场。”
近日,多起争议事件也对美股七巨头形成了冲击。瑞银(UBS)直言微软的Copilot人工智能产品表现不及市场预期;Meta刚在一场具有里程碑意义的社交媒体成瘾诉讼案中败诉;此外,这些公司的许多人工智能愿景都与OpenAI紧密相关,而OpenAI刚刚终止了与迪士尼(Disney)的一笔巨额交易,试图巩固自身在好莱坞的地位。
部分投资者在市场动荡中看到了机遇。Edwards Asset Management首席投资官罗伯特·爱德华兹(Robert Edwards)认为,当前大型科技股的收益率已接近国债收益率,且鉴于这些公司资产负债表强劲、实际盈利持续增长,当前价位的科技股颇具吸引力。
爱德华兹表示:“大型科技股估值合理,且具备真正的增长潜力。”
但逢低买入者并未在本轮回调中入场,背后是有原因的。事实上,尽管唐纳德·特朗普进一步推迟了针对伊朗能源基础设施的打击计划,纳斯达克指数上周五仍大跌2%。
这场战争带来的不确定性,是传统估值框架无法完全定价的;而霍尔木兹海峡封锁事件再度引发了人们对美国其他潜在脆弱环节的关注,包括中国台湾省的相关风险,目前该地区尚未建立半导体战略储备。
投资者似乎已对特朗普在战事上反复无常的表态感到厌倦,转而开始直接关注以色列持续空袭伊朗、伊朗发起反击所释放的信号。截至发稿时,伊朗仍完全控制着霍尔木兹海峡。全球20%的石油需经此海峡运输,且伊朗正考虑对过往船只征收通行费。(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Every Magnificent 7 stock is now down double digits from its 52-week high, with the group’s losses accelerating as the war in Iran compounds on the already fraught AI trade.
Microsoft has been hit the hardest by the drawdown, falling roughly 32% from its October peak, on track for its worst start to a year in its history. Meta is down about 25%, and Alphabet roughly 15% from its closing high last month. Even the darling of the AI trade, Nvidia, and the high-performing Amazon are negative on the year. A Bloomberg index tracking the seven said it had entered correction territory in mid-March, closing more than 10% below its October record.
The selloff marks a sharp reversal from years of AI-fueled gains—the index rose 107% in 2023, 67% in 2024, and 25% in 2025. Multiple forces are now working against the group simultaneously. Oil prices have surged since Operation Epic Fury began Feb. 28, reigniting inflation expectations and shifting the interest-rate outlook. Markets now price in a greater chance of rate hikes by year-end than cuts, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, removing what had been a key pillar of the bull case for growth stocks.
At the same time, though, the excitement around AI infrastructure spending has waned, and now the market seems as spooked by it than enticed. Combined capital expenditures for Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta are expected to exceed $650 billion in 2026, an increase of about 60% from 2025. Institutional money, it seems, has rotated out of these Big Tech stocks and into energy, industrials and domestic manufacturing.
Some of the quick compression in value has drawn comparisons to the dot-com bust. Capital Economics wrote in a note on Friday that the S&P 500’s IT sector has converged with the valuations of the rest of the index, a pattern that matched the final months of the 2000s bubble.
Still, Capital Economics believes that the earnings estimates for the stocks, even as prices have fallen, should give pause to too many ominous comparisons.
While the firm warned that a prolonged conflict could ultimately push the S&P 500 down to 6,000, its baseline view is that the AI buildout won’t be derailed by the war, and that a recovery in valuations will eventually put U.S. stocks back on top later this year.
“That tech outperformance, alongside the fact that the US economy looks less exposed to the conflict than most, informs our view that US equities will continue faring better than their peers,” senior markets economist James Reilly wrote.
Several controversies have also slammed the Mag 7 in recent days. Microsoft’s Copilot AI product has been described as a disappointment by UBS. Meta just lost a landmark trial on its social media addiction. And many of these companies’ AI dreams are tied up in OpenAI, which just exited a massive deal with Disney to try to secure its place in Hollywood.
Some investors see opportunities where there is wreckage. Robert Edwards, chief investment officer at Edwards Asset Management, argued that Big Tech earnings yields now resemble Treasury yields, and that the group’s strong balance sheets and real earnings growth make them attractive at current levels.
“Big Tech is where valuations are reasonable, where you have real growth,” Edwards said.
But there’s a reason dip-buyers aren’t jumping in during the drawdown. In fact, the Nasdaq tumbled 2% on Friday, despite President Donald Trump further delaying his threat to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure.
The war has introduced uncertainty that traditional valuation frameworks can’t fully price, and the Hormuz blockade has renewed focus on other potential vulnerabilities for the U.S.—including in Taiwan, where no strategic semiconductor reserve exists.
Investors seemed tired of his flip-flopping rhetoric on the war, and have started paying attention instead directly to the signal of Israel continuing to strike Iran, and vice versa. As of writing, Iran still has complete control over the Strait of Hormuz, the strait from which 20% of the world’s oil gets passed through, and are considering adding a toll for ships to pass the Strait.