
欧洲正经历四年来第三次能源价格冲击。2022年,俄罗斯将天然气管道武器化;2023至2024年,红海冲突扰乱航运通道;如今,中东战火实际上封锁了霍尔木兹海峡。
俄乌冲突以来,油价首次突破每桶100美元。股市暴跌,欧洲天然气价格暴涨约70%。每次导火索都不同,软肋却始终如一,即欧洲依赖的燃料并非自己所有,运输的海域也无法掌控。
风能与太阳能不会被外国势力禁运、封锁或切断。本土可再生能源每发1太瓦时电,就意味着对手可武器化的能源少1太瓦时能源。欧洲不像美国拥有页岩气,也不像中国可以依赖廉价国产煤炭。欧洲唯一能在本土大规模生产的能源,就是可再生电力。欧洲必须成为全球首个电力大陆。
这不仅是为抵御下一次地缘政治冲击,更是为下个工业时代奠定基础。
人工智能竞赛本质是能源竞赛
国际能源署预测,到2030年全球数据中心用电量将翻一番以上,达到约945太瓦时,超过当前日本全部用电量。下一场工业革命的赢家,不是拥有最优秀工程师的地区,而是电力最便宜、最充足、部署最快速的地区。
欧洲正遭受两面挤压。欧盟工业电价约为美国两倍,比中国高出约50%,且差距仍在扩大。欧洲创业者的创新能力属全球顶尖,但再多创新也无法抵消核心工业投入成本翻倍的劣势。
中美两大强国均已悟出,能源充裕是战略必需。2025年中国在清洁能源领域投资超1万亿美元。美国则享有本国廉价页岩气和科技巨头巨额资本投入双重优势。正如欧洲央行前行长马里奥・德拉吉在里程碑式的竞争力报告中阐明,欧洲工业基础正因能源成本不断失血。若想孕育下一批千亿欧元企业,欧洲必须打好基础。
可再生能源已赢得市场,应放手建设
好消息是:过去十年,可再生能源价格跌幅超90%。2025年,超过90%的新增可再生能源产能比化石能源替代方案更便宜。清洁能源是新发电方式当中成本最低,也是部署最快的选择。
2025年,欧盟的风能与太阳能发电量首次超过化石能源。然而,能源供应主导权仍在天然气手中。去年风电与水电发电量小幅下滑,就迫使天然气消耗增加,欧盟化石天然气进口支出上涨16%。每多依赖一分天然气,就多一分传导外部危机的风险。
中国将廉价本土电力作为核心竞争优势,正成为全球首个电力国家。但欧洲拥有中国不具备的条件:密度、电网互联度与一体化单一市场,足以在整个大陆推进。2025年2月欧盟推出《清洁工业协议》,将可再生能源当做工业战略核心。愿景正确,执行却严重滞后。
许可审批问题就是安全问题
欧盟设定的方向正确,成员国却在暗中拆台。去年11月,瑞典否决了波罗的海13个海上风电项目,总装机容量近32吉瓦,仅此一项决定就让470亿欧元私人投资打了水漂。
纵观欧洲,立法者仍在听取需要政策续命的传统能源企业声音,而不是支持已在开放市场独立立足的技术。早年间可再生能源或许还需要扶持,如今已不再需要。
能源许可必须提升到国家安全的优先级,紧迫性应与国防采购相当。如果一座风电场审批要等八年,而一场战争八小时就能封锁一条海峡,现行的许可制度就是战略负担。
要赢得人工智能竞赛,就不能用全球最昂贵的电力。要打造千亿欧元公司,就不能出现每次外国政府封锁航道就崩溃的局面。
欧洲要想赢得竞赛,需要的不是政府加大补贴,而是政府许可。资本已就位,企业巨头迫切渴求绿色电力,养老基金与基建投资者随时准备投入。缺失的不是资金也不是技术,而是允许建设的政治意愿。(财富中文网)
戴维・弗里克曼是风投Norrsken VC普通合伙人,该公司总部位于斯德哥尔摩,主要支持解决全球重大挑战的创业者。
Fortune.com上评论文章中表达的观点仅代表作者个人观点,并不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
欧洲正经历四年来第三次能源价格冲击。2022年,俄罗斯将天然气管道武器化;2023至2024年,红海冲突扰乱航运通道;如今,中东战火实际上封锁了霍尔木兹海峡。
俄乌冲突以来,油价首次突破每桶100美元。股市暴跌,欧洲天然气价格暴涨约70%。每次导火索都不同,软肋却始终如一,即欧洲依赖的燃料并非自己所有,运输的海域也无法掌控。
风能与太阳能不会被外国势力禁运、封锁或切断。本土可再生能源每发1太瓦时电,就意味着对手可武器化的能源少1太瓦时能源。欧洲不像美国拥有页岩气,也不像中国可以依赖廉价国产煤炭。欧洲唯一能在本土大规模生产的能源,就是可再生电力。欧洲必须成为全球首个电力大陆。
这不仅是为抵御下一次地缘政治冲击,更是为下个工业时代奠定基础。
人工智能竞赛本质是能源竞赛
国际能源署预测,到2030年全球数据中心用电量将翻一番以上,达到约945太瓦时,超过当前日本全部用电量。下一场工业革命的赢家,不是拥有最优秀工程师的地区,而是电力最便宜、最充足、部署最快速的地区。
欧洲正遭受两面挤压。欧盟工业电价约为美国两倍,比中国高出约50%,且差距仍在扩大。欧洲创业者的创新能力属全球顶尖,但再多创新也无法抵消核心工业投入成本翻倍的劣势。
中美两大强国均已悟出,能源充裕是战略必需。2025年中国在清洁能源领域投资超1万亿美元。美国则享有本国廉价页岩气和科技巨头巨额资本投入双重优势。正如欧洲央行前行长马里奥・德拉吉在里程碑式的竞争力报告中阐明,欧洲工业基础正因能源成本不断失血。若想孕育下一批千亿欧元企业,欧洲必须打好基础。
可再生能源已赢得市场,应放手建设
好消息是:过去十年,可再生能源价格跌幅超90%。2025年,超过90%的新增可再生能源产能比化石能源替代方案更便宜。清洁能源是新发电方式当中成本最低,也是部署最快的选择。
2025年,欧盟的风能与太阳能发电量首次超过化石能源。然而,能源供应主导权仍在天然气手中。去年风电与水电发电量小幅下滑,就迫使天然气消耗增加,欧盟化石天然气进口支出上涨16%。每多依赖一分天然气,就多一分传导外部危机的风险。
中国将廉价本土电力作为核心竞争优势,正成为全球首个电力国家。但欧洲拥有中国不具备的条件:密度、电网互联度与一体化单一市场,足以在整个大陆推进。2025年2月欧盟推出《清洁工业协议》,将可再生能源当做工业战略核心。愿景正确,执行却严重滞后。
许可审批问题就是安全问题
欧盟设定的方向正确,成员国却在暗中拆台。去年11月,瑞典否决了波罗的海13个海上风电项目,总装机容量近32吉瓦,仅此一项决定就让470亿欧元私人投资打了水漂。
纵观欧洲,立法者仍在听取需要政策续命的传统能源企业声音,而不是支持已在开放市场独立立足的技术。早年间可再生能源或许还需要扶持,如今已不再需要。
能源许可必须提升到国家安全的优先级,紧迫性应与国防采购相当。如果一座风电场审批要等八年,而一场战争八小时就能封锁一条海峡,现行的许可制度就是战略负担。
要赢得人工智能竞赛,就不能用全球最昂贵的电力。要打造千亿欧元公司,就不能出现每次外国政府封锁航道就崩溃的局面。
欧洲要想赢得竞赛,需要的不是政府加大补贴,而是政府许可。资本已就位,企业巨头迫切渴求绿色电力,养老基金与基建投资者随时准备投入。缺失的不是资金也不是技术,而是允许建设的政治意愿。(财富中文网)
戴维・弗里克曼是风投Norrsken VC普通合伙人,该公司总部位于斯德哥尔摩,主要支持解决全球重大挑战的创业者。
Fortune.com上评论文章中表达的观点仅代表作者个人观点,并不代表《财富》杂志的观点和立场。
译者:梁宇
审校:夏林
Europe is living through its third energy price shock in four years. In 2022, Russia weaponized its gas pipelines. In 2023–24, conflict in the Red Sea disrupted shipping lanes. Now, war in the Middle East has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil has breached $100 a barrel for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Stock markets are in freefall. European gas prices have surged roughly 70%. Each time the trigger is different. The vulnerability is always the same: Europe runs on fuel it does not own, shipped through waters it does not control.
Wind and solar cannot be embargoed, blockaded, or shut off by a foreign power. Every terawatt-hour of domestic renewable generation is a terawatt-hour that no adversary can weaponize. Unlike the U.S., Europe has no shale gas. Unlike China, it cannot fall back on cheap domestic coal. The only energy Europe can produce at scale, on its own soil, is renewable electricity. Europe must now become the world’s first Electro-Continent.
This is not only about shielding against the next geopolitical shock. It is about building the foundation for the next industrial era.
The AI Race Is an Energy Race
The IEA projects that global data-center electricity consumption will more than double by 2030, reaching roughly 945 terawatt-hours — more than Japan consumes today. The winner of the next industrial revolution will not be the region with the best engineers. It will be the region that can deliver the cheapest, most abundant, fastest-to-deploy power.
Europe is being squeezed from both sides. Industrial electricity prices in the EU are roughly twice those in the U.S. and about 50% higher than in China — a gap that is widening. European founders are already world-class at innovation. But no amount of innovation can overcome a 100% overhead on your primary industrial input.
Both superpowers have understood that energy abundance is a strategic necessity. China invested over $1 trillion in clean energy in 2025. The U.S. enjoys the double advantage of cheap domestic shale gas and the massive capital commitments of Big Tech. As former ECB President Mario Draghi’s landmark competitiveness report made clear, Europe’s industrial base is bleeding out because of energy costs. If Europe wants to host the next generation of €100 billion companies, it must fix the foundation.
Renewables Won the Market. Now Let Them Build.
The good news: renewable energy prices have dropped more than 90% over the past decade. In 2025, over 90% of new renewable capacity was cheaper than the fossil fuel alternative. Clean energy is the cheapest and fastest form of new generation available.
Wind and solar generated more EU electricity than fossil fuels for the first time in 2025. Yet the gas tail still wags the dog. A single dip in wind and hydro output last year forced higher gas burn, pushing the EU’s fossil gas import bill up 16%. Every remaining molecule of gas dependency is a transmission mechanism for the next foreign crisis.
China is becoming the world’s first electro-state — making cheap, domestically produced electricity its primary competitive advantage. But Europe has something China does not: the density, grid interconnection, and integrated single market to do this at continental scale. The EU’s Clean Industrial Deal, launched in February 2025, places renewables at the heart of industrial strategy. The vision is correct. The execution is failing.
The Permits Problem Is a Security Problem
While Brussels sets the right direction, member states are undermining it. Last November, Sweden rejected 13 offshore wind projects in the Baltic Sea — projects with a combined capacity of nearly 32 gigawatts. That single decision wiped out €47 billion of private investment.
Across Europe, legislators are still listening to incumbent energy companies that need policy life-support to survive, rather than backing technologies that already stand on their own in open markets. Renewables may have needed an early push. They do not need one now.
Energy permits must be treated as national security priorities — with the same urgency as defense procurement. If a wind farm permit takes eight years, but a war can close a strait in eight hours, the permitting system is a strategic liability.
You cannot fight a trade war with China by starving your own industries of power. You cannot win the AI race with the world’s most expensive electricity. You cannot build €100 billion companies on a foundation that cracks every time a foreign government closes a shipping lane.
Europe does not need more government handouts to win this race. It needs government permissions. The capital is there. Corporate giants are desperate for green electrons. Pension funds and infrastructure investors are ready to deploy. What is missing is not money or technology. It is the political willingness to let them build.
David Frykman is a General Partner at Norrsken VC, the Stockholm-based venture fund backing founders solving the world's greatest challenges.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.