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得州天然气供过于求,全球其他地区则面临供应短缺

Jason Ma
2026-03-28

全球能源市场的异常现象,造成了资源充裕地区与资源匮乏地区之间鲜明的地域分化。

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2025年3月15日(周六),在美国得克萨斯州塔尔萨附近,Endeavor Energy Resources LP的一处油气井正通过火炬烧掉过剩天然气。图片来源:Justin Hamel/Bloomberg via Getty Images

全球能源市场的异常现象,造成了资源充裕地区与资源匮乏地区之间鲜明的地域分化:美国西得克萨斯州天然气供过于求,价格跌至负值;而在美国对伊朗开战的背景下,欧洲与亚洲却面临迫在眉睫的供应短缺风险。

交易员向彭博社透露,过去一周,二叠纪盆地瓦哈天然气交易中心的现货价格一度跌至每百万英热单位-9.75美元,因运营商开展季节性维护导致管道运力收紧,预计今年晚些时候,价格或跌至-10美元。

究其原因,油气资源富集的二叠纪盆地在原油开采过程中会伴生大量天然气。然而,尽管当地拥有庞大的原油输送管网,天然气运输基础设施却相对不足,由此造成运输瓶颈,引发区域性供应过剩。

因此,负气价在西得克萨斯州并不罕见,今年到目前为止,这种情况甚至更为常见。但上周瓦哈天然气交易中心的周均现货价格创下了历史新低。

负气价意味着生产商需要倒贴费用,才能让买家接手天然气供应。在这种情况下,过剩天然气往往会被直接烧掉,本季度所谓的燃除量已达到五年来的最高水平。

即便面临气价倒挂的压力,西得克萨斯州钻井商也不太可能削减产量,原因是石油利润丰厚,足以抵消天然气带来的损失。

自美以对伊朗开战以来,原油价格近期飙升,进一步扩大了原油开采的盈利空间。过去三周,西得克萨斯中质原油价格暴涨47%,逼近每桶100美元。

相比之下,受伊朗战争引发的供应中断影响,全球其他地区的天然气价格飙升。伊朗方面已采取报复行动,基本上封锁了霍尔木兹海峡——全球20%的原油和液化天然气均经此航道运输。

伊朗还袭击了卡塔尔的拉斯拉凡工业城,造成两条液化天然气生产线受损,这将影响该国约17%的液化天然气出口,且修复工作可能需要长达五年时间。

尽管中东大部分液化天然气均出口至亚洲,但随着亚洲和欧洲争夺剩余天然气,此次供应冲击将在全球市场引发连锁反应。

周四,欧洲基准天然气期货价格一度飙升35%,至每兆瓦时约70欧元,即每百万英热单位超20美元,是战前水平的两倍。

尽管这一价格远低于2022年俄乌冲突后创下的每兆瓦时345欧元的历史纪录,但本轮价格暴涨,恰逢欧洲的能源敏感窗口期。冬季供暖需求已消耗大量天然气库存,受此影响,各国必须在今夏补充天然气储备。

亚洲的形势更为严峻,各国已开始研究能源配给方案,包括推行每周四天工作制、居家办公等措施。

分析师向彭博社表示,若霍尔木兹海峡遭长期封锁,亚洲液化天然气现货价格可能会从今年春天的每百万英热单位26美元升至夏季的30美元以上。若封锁持续六个月,价格甚至可能突破40美元。

部分亚洲国家甚至重启了2022年的应急策略,重新转向燃煤发电。例如,泰国政府已下令燃煤电厂满负荷运行,孟加拉国的公用事业企业也加大了煤炭用量。

作为全球半导体核心产区,韩国和中国台湾省已释放信号,计划进一步提高燃煤发电占比。

欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)能源部董事总经理亨宁·格洛伊斯坦(Henning Gloystein)告诉《纽约时报》:“亚洲正陷入全面价格竞争,任何能从天然气发电转向燃煤发电的国家,都已开始行动。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

全球能源市场的异常现象,造成了资源充裕地区与资源匮乏地区之间鲜明的地域分化:美国西得克萨斯州天然气供过于求,价格跌至负值;而在美国对伊朗开战的背景下,欧洲与亚洲却面临迫在眉睫的供应短缺风险。

交易员向彭博社透露,过去一周,二叠纪盆地瓦哈天然气交易中心的现货价格一度跌至每百万英热单位-9.75美元,因运营商开展季节性维护导致管道运力收紧,预计今年晚些时候,价格或跌至-10美元。

究其原因,油气资源富集的二叠纪盆地在原油开采过程中会伴生大量天然气。然而,尽管当地拥有庞大的原油输送管网,天然气运输基础设施却相对不足,由此造成运输瓶颈,引发区域性供应过剩。

因此,负气价在西得克萨斯州并不罕见,今年到目前为止,这种情况甚至更为常见。但上周瓦哈天然气交易中心的周均现货价格创下了历史新低。

负气价意味着生产商需要倒贴费用,才能让买家接手天然气供应。在这种情况下,过剩天然气往往会被直接烧掉,本季度所谓的燃除量已达到五年来的最高水平。

即便面临气价倒挂的压力,西得克萨斯州钻井商也不太可能削减产量,原因是石油利润丰厚,足以抵消天然气带来的损失。

自美以对伊朗开战以来,原油价格近期飙升,进一步扩大了原油开采的盈利空间。过去三周,西得克萨斯中质原油价格暴涨47%,逼近每桶100美元。

相比之下,受伊朗战争引发的供应中断影响,全球其他地区的天然气价格飙升。伊朗方面已采取报复行动,基本上封锁了霍尔木兹海峡——全球20%的原油和液化天然气均经此航道运输。

伊朗还袭击了卡塔尔的拉斯拉凡工业城,造成两条液化天然气生产线受损,这将影响该国约17%的液化天然气出口,且修复工作可能需要长达五年时间。

尽管中东大部分液化天然气均出口至亚洲,但随着亚洲和欧洲争夺剩余天然气,此次供应冲击将在全球市场引发连锁反应。

周四,欧洲基准天然气期货价格一度飙升35%,至每兆瓦时约70欧元,即每百万英热单位超20美元,是战前水平的两倍。

尽管这一价格远低于2022年俄乌冲突后创下的每兆瓦时345欧元的历史纪录,但本轮价格暴涨,恰逢欧洲的能源敏感窗口期。冬季供暖需求已消耗大量天然气库存,受此影响,各国必须在今夏补充天然气储备。

亚洲的形势更为严峻,各国已开始研究能源配给方案,包括推行每周四天工作制、居家办公等措施。

分析师向彭博社表示,若霍尔木兹海峡遭长期封锁,亚洲液化天然气现货价格可能会从今年春天的每百万英热单位26美元升至夏季的30美元以上。若封锁持续六个月,价格甚至可能突破40美元。

部分亚洲国家甚至重启了2022年的应急策略,重新转向燃煤发电。例如,泰国政府已下令燃煤电厂满负荷运行,孟加拉国的公用事业企业也加大了煤炭用量。

作为全球半导体核心产区,韩国和中国台湾省已释放信号,计划进一步提高燃煤发电占比。

欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)能源部董事总经理亨宁·格洛伊斯坦(Henning Gloystein)告诉《纽约时报》:“亚洲正陷入全面价格竞争,任何能从天然气发电转向燃煤发电的国家,都已开始行动。”(财富中文网)

译者:中慧言-王芳

A quirk in global energy markets has created a stark geographic divide between the haves and the have nots, as a glut of natural gas in West Texas has produced negative prices while shortages loom over Europe and Asia amid the U.S. war on Iran.

Over the past week, spot prices at the Waha gas trading hub in the Permian Basin fell as low as -$9.75 per million British thermal units, with expectations that it could hit -$10 when pipeline capacity tightens as operators perform seasonal maintenance later this year, traders told Bloomberg.

That’s because drilling in the prolific Permian Basin yields both oil and natural gas. But while an extensive network of pipelines exists to bring crude to market, there’s less infrastructure to transport natural gas, creating bottlenecks and localized surpluses.

As a result, negative gas prices aren’t that unusual in West Texas, and have been that way more often than not so far this year. But last week saw the lowest weekly average Waha spot price on record.

Since negative prices mean producers have to pay to someone to take the supply off their hands, excess natural gas is often burned off, and so-called flaring events this season are at five-year highs.

Despite the upside-down price environment for West Texas drillers, they aren’t expected to pull back production because oil is lucrative enough to offset losses from gas.

And the recent spike in crude since the U.S.-Israel war on Iran started makes oil even more profitable. West Texas Intermediate has shot up 47% to nearly $100 a barrel in the last three weeks.

By contrast, other parts of the world have seen natural gas prices surge due to disruptions from the Iran war. Tehran has retaliated by largely closing off the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas flow.

Iran also attacked Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, damaging two LNG production trains that will impact about 17% of the country’s LNG exports—and repairs may take up to five years.

While most LNG from the Middle East goes to Asia, the supply shock will ripple through global markets as Asia and Europe compete for the remaining gas.

European benchmark gas futures jumped as much as 35% on Thursday to about 70 euros per megawatt hour, or more than $20 per million BTUs, double their prewar levels.

While that’s far short of the record 345 euros per megawatt hour seen in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, the latest price spike comes at a sensitive time for Europe. After heating demand drew down gas inventories during winter, countries must now restock supplies this summer.

In Asia, the situation is so dire that countries have already started looking ways to ration energy, such as implementing four-day workweeks and working from home.

A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could send LNG spot prices in Asia above $30 per million BTUs in the summer from $26 this spring, analysts told Bloomberg. And if it remains shut in six months, the price could even top $40.

Some countries in Asia are even turning to coal to generate electricity, returning to their 2022 playbook. The Thai government, for example, has already ordered coal-fired power plants to operate at full capacity. Utilities in Bangladesh have also boosted their coal consumption.

South Korea and Taiwan, which produce much of the world’s semiconductors, have signaled they are preparing to rely more on coal.

“Asia is in full price competition, with any country that can switch from gas to coal doing so,” Henning Gloystein, a managing director for energy at Eurasia Group, told the New York Times.

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