
一个“幽灵”正笼罩着白领世界,那就是白领岗位流失。但在华尔街被称为“宇宙的主人”的资产管理巨头拉里·芬克看来,机器里还藏着另一个“幽灵”。
在致贝莱德(BlackRock)股东的年度信中,这位首席执行官指出,技术进步对《财富》500强企业构成了更为严峻的威胁。作为指数基金革命的领军人物,他关注的核心始终是资产以及谁拥有这些资产。真正的威胁在于分配不平等和整体财富分配。
芬克警告称,近几十年来,资产价格一路飙升,薪资水平却基本停滞,这导致财富不平等进一步加剧。他近期已多次强调这一问题。AI不仅会让拥有资产的人受益,还会让那些能够运用这一技术的人加速积累财富。
芬克在周一发布的致股东年度信中写道:“绝大多数财富流向了那些拥有资产的人,而不是主要靠劳动赚取收入的人。”
“如今,AI有可能以更大规模重演这一模式——将财富进一步集中到那些有能力获取技术红利的企业和投资者手中。”
美联储(Federal Reserve)的研究显示,美国的贫富差距从未如此悬殊。去年第三季度,这一差距达到了自1989年美联储开始追踪家庭财富分化以来的最高水平。最富有的1%人群掌握着美国31.7%的财富,这一比例与底层90%人群所拥有的财富总和相当。高收入群体的财富大多集中在股票、房地产等资产上,普通美国人越来越难分一杯羹。芬克表示,随着人工智能的快速发展及企业加速应用,这一趋势可能会进一步加剧。
回报两极分化
AI驱动的生产力提升,或许有望带动整体工资上涨,但迄今为止的大多数证据表明,AI的应用仅让相对有限的岗位的薪资有所上涨,而围绕该技术的乐观预期却显著提振了股市。芬克在信中写道,自1989年以来,美国中位数工资的增长幅度仅为股市回报的十五分之一。
如今,AI非但不会扭转这一走势,反而极有可能使其愈演愈烈,至少在短期内是如此。对于那些未能直接受益的人来说,财富差距可能很快会变得更加悬殊。
芬克写道:“当市值狂飙,所有权却高度集中时,局外人会愈发感到繁荣遥不可及。这正是当今许多经济焦虑的根源:人们隐约感到资本主义依然奏效,只是没有惠及足够多的人。”
芬克在信中将AI称为至少自计算机问世以来最重要的技术,但AI可能迅速扩大不平等。他警告称,AI可能将巨额财富进一步集中到少数最有能力获取其价值的企业和投资者手中。他还表示,这可能加剧经济的“K型分化”:资本更充裕、更能抓住AI机会的企业和投资者实现更快增长,而受益较少的一方则陷入停滞,从而进一步扩大不平等。
芬克写道:“变革性技术会创造巨大的价值,而其中大部分价值都会流向开发和部署这些技术的公司,以及持有股权的投资者。那些拥有数据、基础设施和资本、能够大规模部署AI的公司,将获得远超平均水平的巨大收益。”
目前的数据似乎也印证了他的判断。穆迪(Moody’s)首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出,美国经济正越来越依赖高收入人群的消费支撑。近年来,高收入群体的支出大幅增长,而中低收入家庭的可自由支配支出则出现放缓,甚至陷入停滞。
牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)首席执行官英尼斯·麦克菲近日对《财富》杂志表示,随着AI的应用,这一趋势愈发令人担忧。AI推动的股市上涨是高收入群体信心的重要来源。他指出,尽管AI让美国整体财富增长了7%,但收益几乎全进了富人的腰包。他认为AI最终“绝对”有潜力抹平财富差距,但至少在2035年之前,美国经济更可能维持“K型分化”格局。
同样的趋势也体现在就业领域。到目前为止,AI带来的生产力提升主要集中在需要AI相关技能的岗位,这些职位的薪资溢价最高可达43%。但对于大多数岗位而言,AI尚未带来显著的生产力或薪资提升,反而给负责管理AI系统的员工增加了工作负担。
AI会成为长期“均衡器”?
普华永道(PwC)去年的模型研究表明,从长期来看,AI带来的效率提升可能会提高农业、制造业等行业低收入岗位的工资水平,并带动就业增长,从而缩小依赖这些行业的国家的贫富差距。此外,一些专家(包括城市研究所(Urban Institute)的分析人士)还建议向AI公司收取使用费,设立全民基本收入计划,以缓解不平等问题。
但就目前而言,要想从AI中受益,要么从事需要AI技能的工作,要么对人工智能的发展前景进行投资。鉴于近40%的美国人根本不参与股市,相当一部分人或许可能会被排除在外,成为“旁观者”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
一个“幽灵”正笼罩着白领世界,那就是白领岗位流失。但在华尔街被称为“宇宙的主人”的资产管理巨头拉里·芬克看来,机器里还藏着另一个“幽灵”。
在致贝莱德(BlackRock)股东的年度信中,这位首席执行官指出,技术进步对《财富》500强企业构成了更为严峻的威胁。作为指数基金革命的领军人物,他关注的核心始终是资产以及谁拥有这些资产。真正的威胁在于分配不平等和整体财富分配。
芬克警告称,近几十年来,资产价格一路飙升,薪资水平却基本停滞,这导致财富不平等进一步加剧。他近期已多次强调这一问题。AI不仅会让拥有资产的人受益,还会让那些能够运用这一技术的人加速积累财富。
芬克在周一发布的致股东年度信中写道:“绝大多数财富流向了那些拥有资产的人,而不是主要靠劳动赚取收入的人。”
“如今,AI有可能以更大规模重演这一模式——将财富进一步集中到那些有能力获取技术红利的企业和投资者手中。”
美联储(Federal Reserve)的研究显示,美国的贫富差距从未如此悬殊。去年第三季度,这一差距达到了自1989年美联储开始追踪家庭财富分化以来的最高水平。最富有的1%人群掌握着美国31.7%的财富,这一比例与底层90%人群所拥有的财富总和相当。高收入群体的财富大多集中在股票、房地产等资产上,普通美国人越来越难分一杯羹。芬克表示,随着人工智能的快速发展及企业加速应用,这一趋势可能会进一步加剧。
回报两极分化
AI驱动的生产力提升,或许有望带动整体工资上涨,但迄今为止的大多数证据表明,AI的应用仅让相对有限的岗位的薪资有所上涨,而围绕该技术的乐观预期却显著提振了股市。芬克在信中写道,自1989年以来,美国中位数工资的增长幅度仅为股市回报的十五分之一。
如今,AI非但不会扭转这一走势,反而极有可能使其愈演愈烈,至少在短期内是如此。对于那些未能直接受益的人来说,财富差距可能很快会变得更加悬殊。
芬克写道:“当市值狂飙,所有权却高度集中时,局外人会愈发感到繁荣遥不可及。这正是当今许多经济焦虑的根源:人们隐约感到资本主义依然奏效,只是没有惠及足够多的人。”
芬克在信中将AI称为至少自计算机问世以来最重要的技术,但AI可能迅速扩大不平等。他警告称,AI可能将巨额财富进一步集中到少数最有能力获取其价值的企业和投资者手中。他还表示,这可能加剧经济的“K型分化”:资本更充裕、更能抓住AI机会的企业和投资者实现更快增长,而受益较少的一方则陷入停滞,从而进一步扩大不平等。
芬克写道:“变革性技术会创造巨大的价值,而其中大部分价值都会流向开发和部署这些技术的公司,以及持有股权的投资者。那些拥有数据、基础设施和资本、能够大规模部署AI的公司,将获得远超平均水平的巨大收益。”
目前的数据似乎也印证了他的判断。穆迪(Moody’s)首席经济学家马克·赞迪指出,美国经济正越来越依赖高收入人群的消费支撑。近年来,高收入群体的支出大幅增长,而中低收入家庭的可自由支配支出则出现放缓,甚至陷入停滞。
牛津经济研究院(Oxford Economics)首席执行官英尼斯·麦克菲近日对《财富》杂志表示,随着AI的应用,这一趋势愈发令人担忧。AI推动的股市上涨是高收入群体信心的重要来源。他指出,尽管AI让美国整体财富增长了7%,但收益几乎全进了富人的腰包。他认为AI最终“绝对”有潜力抹平财富差距,但至少在2035年之前,美国经济更可能维持“K型分化”格局。
同样的趋势也体现在就业领域。到目前为止,AI带来的生产力提升主要集中在需要AI相关技能的岗位,这些职位的薪资溢价最高可达43%。但对于大多数岗位而言,AI尚未带来显著的生产力或薪资提升,反而给负责管理AI系统的员工增加了工作负担。
AI会成为长期“均衡器”?
普华永道(PwC)去年的模型研究表明,从长期来看,AI带来的效率提升可能会提高农业、制造业等行业低收入岗位的工资水平,并带动就业增长,从而缩小依赖这些行业的国家的贫富差距。此外,一些专家(包括城市研究所(Urban Institute)的分析人士)还建议向AI公司收取使用费,设立全民基本收入计划,以缓解不平等问题。
但就目前而言,要想从AI中受益,要么从事需要AI技能的工作,要么对人工智能的发展前景进行投资。鉴于近40%的美国人根本不参与股市,相当一部分人或许可能会被排除在外,成为“旁观者”。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
A specter is haunting the world of white-collar work: the specter of white-collar job loss. But one of Wall Street’s “Masters of the Universe,” asset management billionaire Larry Fink sees another ghost in the machine.
Writing in his annual letter to BlackRock shareholders, the CEO identified a much greater threat from technological progress to the Fortune 500. Fittingly, for the man who played a major role in the index-fund revolution, his mind was on assets and who owns them—or doesn’t. Inequality and overall wealth is the real threat.
With asset values soaring in recent decades as salaries largely stagnate, wealth inequality will only get worse, warned Fink, who has been beating this drum often of late. AI threatens to concentrate wealth not only with those who have assets, he explained, but those who use this technology.
“The vast majority of wealth has flowed to people who owned assets, not to people who earned most of their money by working,” Fink wrote in his annual letter to shareholders on Monday.
“Now AI threatens to repeat that pattern at an even larger scale—concentrating wealth among the companies and investors positioned to capture it.”
Research from the Federal Reserve has found America’s haves and have-nots have rarely been this far apart. In the third quarter of last year, the gap was the widest it’s been since 1989, when the Fed began tracking household wealth divergence. The top 1% held 31.7% of U.S. wealth, comparable to all wealth owned by the bottom 90%. With most high-income wealth held in assets from stocks to real estate, it’s become increasingly inaccessible to a growing segment of Americans. And with the speeding growth and corporate adoption of artificial intelligence, that trend risks accelerating, according to Fink.
Uneven returns
AI-driven productivity might potentially raise wages across the board, but most evidence so far suggests AI adoption has raised wages in a relatively small pool of jobs, while excitement surrounding the technology has boosted stock markets. Fink wrote that since 1989, median wages in the U.S. have lagged stock market returns by a factor of 15.
Now, AI looks most likely to lengthen that trend rather than reverse it—at least in the short term. For people not directly exposed to its benefits, the wealth gap might soon look a lot wider.
“When market capitalization rises but ownership remains narrow, prosperity can feel increasingly distant to those on the outside,” Fink wrote. “This is where much of today’s economic anxiety comes from: a deeper feeling that capitalism is working—just not for enough people.”
In his letter, Fink described AI as the most significant technology since at least the computer, but nonetheless risks putting inequality on steroids. He warned that AI could concentrate massive wealth primarily among a handful of companies and investors best positioned to capture its value. It could accelerate “K-shaped outcomes” for the economy, he added, where firms and investors with greater access to capital benefit from faster growth, while those less exposed to rising asset valuations stagnate, driving inequality even further.
“Transformative technologies create enormous value—and much of that value accrues to the companies that build and deploy them, and to the investors who own them,” he wrote. “The companies with the data, infrastructure, and capital to deploy AI at scale are positioned to benefit disproportionately.”
The data so far seems to support Fink’s argument. The U.S. is increasingly mired in an economy supported by wealthy consumers, according to Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. Spending from high-earners has surged in recent years, while low and middle-income households have seen their discretionary spending slow or even plateau.
The trend grows more worrisome with the use of this new tech, as AI-driven gains in the stock market are a big part of high-income confidence, Oxford Economics CEO Innes McFee recently told Fortune. While the technology has led to a 7% rise in U.S. wealth, that benefit is almost entirely contained to high-earning households, he said. While AI could “absolutely” even out wealth inequality eventually, it is more likely to maintain the U.S. economy’s K-shape until at least 2035, McFee said.
The same trend is visible in jobs. So far, AI-related productivity boosts are mostly reserved for workers whose jobs demand AI-related skills, roles that can expect a wage premium as high as 43%. But for most jobs, AI has yet to translate to significant productivity or wage gains, and might actually be leading to larger workloads for employees tasked with managing AI.
A long run equalizer?
Over the long term, AI-driven efficiency could lead to higher wages and job growth among low-income professions in sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, potentially reducing inequality in countries heavily reliant on those sectors, according to modeling last year by PwC. And some experts, including analysts at the Urban Institute, have argued for a universal basic income program drawing royalties from AI companies as a measure to lessen inequality.
But for the moment, benefiting from AI requires working in a role requiring AI skills or being financially invested in its growth story. With nearly 40% of Americans not exposed to the stock market at all, a sizable portion of the population could be caught on the outside looking in.