
随着美国国债规模突破39万亿美元,美国众议院预算委员会(House Budget Committee)主席警告称,美国惊人的债务负担已对“国家未来构成生存性威胁”。
来自得克萨斯州的共和党众议员乔迪·阿灵顿上周强调,美国国债历时近两个世纪才突破万亿美元,而仅仅数十年后,美国财政部如今每年光是偿还债务利息,就要花掉这一数额的资金。
在2025财年,美国财政部支付的偿债利息高达1.22万亿美元;而在2026财年,目前已支付5,200亿美元。根据国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的测算,到2036年,这一年度利息支出预计将达到2.1万亿美元。
事实上,美国国债直到上世纪80年代初才突破1万亿美元大关,在罗纳德·里根总统任内达到1.1万亿美元。
正如阿灵顿所指出的:“美国国债历时约200年才突破万亿美元,而现在,短短数月就能新增同样的规模。现在,美国每个孩子都背负着53万美元的债务份额——这是一项必须扭转的沉重枷锁。更糟糕的是,我们现在每年仅用于支付债务利息的支出就超过1万亿美元,这已经超过了整个国防预算,是拜登上任时的三倍。”
对美国财政前景感到担忧的并非阿灵顿一人。杰米·戴蒙和瑞·达利欧等私营经济领域的多位重量级人物都曾警告称,债务问题可能引发“清算”。美联储(U.S. Federal Reserve)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也表示,有必要就这一问题展开一次“成熟而理性的讨论”。
至于应采取何种手段来控制债务及其利息成本,各方观点不一。例如,负责任联邦预算委员会(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)主张将联邦统一预算赤字控制在GDP的3%或以下,而目前这一比例约为6%。这一观点也获得了两党部分议员的支持,包括密歇根州共和党众议员比尔·许曾加和加利福尼亚州民主党众议员斯科特·彼得斯,两人为两党财政论坛(Bipartisan Fiscal Forum)的联席主席。事实上,该论坛整个指导委员会均支持该主张,并提交了相关决议。
阿灵顿则主张采取更为强硬的手段。相比之下,将赤字控制在GDP的3%这一提议更像是一个相对宽泛的目标,而阿灵顿希望推动的是,将财政纪律写入美国宪法。
他上周表示:“一个令人沮丧、发人深省且震惊的现实是:尽管财政危机迫在眉睫,国会却陷入瘫痪,无法应对当前的紧迫局势。因此,如果华盛顿不采取行动,那么就该把目光投向首都之外。《宪法》第五条为我们提供了另一条路径,赋予各州和美国人民介入并要求财政纪律的权力。”
“我呼吁国会召开《宪法》第五条规定的制宪会议。现在是时候让首都恢复理性,扭转笼罩在这个国家之上的危机了。”
《宪法》第五条允许修宪,例如对借贷和政府支出设定约束。如果三分之二的州议会提出申请,国会必须召集会议;而若有四分之三的州支持相关修正案,该修正案即可成为具有法律效力的条款。
其他路径
近年来,多位美国总统都曾尝试改善国家财政状况。奥巴马总统任内推动成立了两党联合的国家财政责任与改革委员会(National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform),即广为人知的“辛普森—鲍尔斯委员会”(Simpson-Bowles Commission)。该委员会最终提出了一系列建议,包括削减可自由支配支出、改革税制以及调整医疗支出结构等。
特朗普总统则提出过一些更为“非传统”的方法来平衡财政。例如,他曾主推一项名为“金卡”计划的签证政策,向富裕移民收取500万美元费用,以换取绿卡及入籍路径。
他在去年表示:“如果发放100万张‘金卡’,价值就是5万亿美元;如果卖出1,000万张,那就是50万亿美元。而我们的债务是35万亿美元,这主意不错。”
此外,他还高举关税大棒,作为弥补《大而美法案》(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)等政策所带来的财政收入缺口的一种手段。尽管特朗普的关税政策在国际上备受争议,但一些经济学家仍对这些增加收入的“奇招”表示认可。正如沃顿商学院教授若昂·戈麦斯此前在接受《财富》杂志采访时所说:“你也不能否认,(特朗普及其政府)带来了一些不同寻常的收入来源,而这确实改变了债务状况。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
随着美国国债规模突破39万亿美元,美国众议院预算委员会(House Budget Committee)主席警告称,美国惊人的债务负担已对“国家未来构成生存性威胁”。
来自得克萨斯州的共和党众议员乔迪·阿灵顿上周强调,美国国债历时近两个世纪才突破万亿美元,而仅仅数十年后,美国财政部如今每年光是偿还债务利息,就要花掉这一数额的资金。
在2025财年,美国财政部支付的偿债利息高达1.22万亿美元;而在2026财年,目前已支付5,200亿美元。根据国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的测算,到2036年,这一年度利息支出预计将达到2.1万亿美元。
事实上,美国国债直到上世纪80年代初才突破1万亿美元大关,在罗纳德·里根总统任内达到1.1万亿美元。
正如阿灵顿所指出的:“美国国债历时约200年才突破万亿美元,而现在,短短数月就能新增同样的规模。现在,美国每个孩子都背负着53万美元的债务份额——这是一项必须扭转的沉重枷锁。更糟糕的是,我们现在每年仅用于支付债务利息的支出就超过1万亿美元,这已经超过了整个国防预算,是拜登上任时的三倍。”
对美国财政前景感到担忧的并非阿灵顿一人。杰米·戴蒙和瑞·达利欧等私营经济领域的多位重量级人物都曾警告称,债务问题可能引发“清算”。美联储(U.S. Federal Reserve)主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也表示,有必要就这一问题展开一次“成熟而理性的讨论”。
至于应采取何种手段来控制债务及其利息成本,各方观点不一。例如,负责任联邦预算委员会(Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)主张将联邦统一预算赤字控制在GDP的3%或以下,而目前这一比例约为6%。这一观点也获得了两党部分议员的支持,包括密歇根州共和党众议员比尔·许曾加和加利福尼亚州民主党众议员斯科特·彼得斯,两人为两党财政论坛(Bipartisan Fiscal Forum)的联席主席。事实上,该论坛整个指导委员会均支持该主张,并提交了相关决议。
阿灵顿则主张采取更为强硬的手段。相比之下,将赤字控制在GDP的3%这一提议更像是一个相对宽泛的目标,而阿灵顿希望推动的是,将财政纪律写入美国宪法。
他上周表示:“一个令人沮丧、发人深省且震惊的现实是:尽管财政危机迫在眉睫,国会却陷入瘫痪,无法应对当前的紧迫局势。因此,如果华盛顿不采取行动,那么就该把目光投向首都之外。《宪法》第五条为我们提供了另一条路径,赋予各州和美国人民介入并要求财政纪律的权力。”
“我呼吁国会召开《宪法》第五条规定的制宪会议。现在是时候让首都恢复理性,扭转笼罩在这个国家之上的危机了。”
《宪法》第五条允许修宪,例如对借贷和政府支出设定约束。如果三分之二的州议会提出申请,国会必须召集会议;而若有四分之三的州支持相关修正案,该修正案即可成为具有法律效力的条款。
其他路径
近年来,多位美国总统都曾尝试改善国家财政状况。奥巴马总统任内推动成立了两党联合的国家财政责任与改革委员会(National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform),即广为人知的“辛普森—鲍尔斯委员会”(Simpson-Bowles Commission)。该委员会最终提出了一系列建议,包括削减可自由支配支出、改革税制以及调整医疗支出结构等。
特朗普总统则提出过一些更为“非传统”的方法来平衡财政。例如,他曾主推一项名为“金卡”计划的签证政策,向富裕移民收取500万美元费用,以换取绿卡及入籍路径。
他在去年表示:“如果发放100万张‘金卡’,价值就是5万亿美元;如果卖出1,000万张,那就是50万亿美元。而我们的债务是35万亿美元,这主意不错。”
此外,他还高举关税大棒,作为弥补《大而美法案》(One Big Beautiful Bill Act)等政策所带来的财政收入缺口的一种手段。尽管特朗普的关税政策在国际上备受争议,但一些经济学家仍对这些增加收入的“奇招”表示认可。正如沃顿商学院教授若昂·戈麦斯此前在接受《财富》杂志采访时所说:“你也不能否认,(特朗普及其政府)带来了一些不同寻常的收入来源,而这确实改变了债务状况。”(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
The U.S.’s eye-watering debt burden poses an “existential threat to the future of our nation,” the chairman of the House Budget Committee has warned, as the country’s borrowing figure tipped over $39 trillion.
Texan Republican Rep. Jodey Arrington highlighted last week that it had taken the U.S. nearly two centuries to build a debt pile worth $1 trillion, whereas a mere matter of decades later, the Treasury is forking out that figure every year merely in service payments on the debt.
For the fiscal year 2025, the Treasury paid $1.22 trillion in interest on the debt, and for FY2026, the government has already paid out $520 billion. By 2036, that figure is expected to hit to $2.1 trillion annually, according to calculations by the Congressional Budget Office.
Indeed, U.S. debt didn’t reach the $1 trillion mark until the early 1980s, hitting $1.1 trillion under President Ronald Reagan.
As Arrington points out: “It took roughly 200 years to accumulate the first $1 trillion. Now we add that in a matter of months. Every child in America today carries a $530,000 share of this debt—a crushing legacy we must reverse. Compounding the problem, we now spend more than $1 trillion a year just on interest to service our debt—more than the entire defense budget and triple the amount when Biden took office.”
Arrington isn’t alone in his concern over the nation’s financial trajectory. Figures on the private side of the economy like Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio have warned of a reckoning caused by debt, and U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has also expressed the need for an “adult conversation” about the issue.
There is a range of opinions on which methods should be employed to wrangle borrowing and its associated interest costs. For example, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget has advocated for a federal unified budget deficit at or below 3% of GDP, which at the moment sits at around 6%. This idea has been backed by the likes of Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) and Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.), the cochairs of the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum. Indeed, the entire steering committee for the forum has supported the notion and introduced a resolution to that effect.
Arrington has called for a harder-line approach. The resolution for a deficit of 3% of GDP is defined more loosely as a target: Arrington wants to open up a conversation about adding fiscal responsibility to the country’s very Constitution.
He said last week: “Here’s the sad, sobering, and stunning truth: Despite the urgency of our fiscal crisis, Congress is paralyzed—unable to meet the urgency of the moment. So, if Washington won’t act, then it’s time to look beyond our nation’s capital. The Founders gave us another path in Article V of the Constitution, empowering the states and the American people to step in and demand fiscal discipline.
“I’m calling on Congress to convene an Article V Convention. It’s time to restore sanity in our nation’s capital and reverse the curse looming large over this country.”
An Article Five Convention allows amendments to the Constitution, for example, targeting borrowing and government spending. If two-thirds of state legislatures apply, then Congress must call a convention, with a further three-quarters of states required to back the amendment for it to become a legal requirement.
Other approaches
In recent memory, presidents have attempted to rectify the U.S. fiscal position. President Obama oversaw the creation of the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, commonly known as the Simpson-Bowles (or Bowles-Simpson) Commission. The ensuing report made several recommendations: cutting discretionary spending, reforming tax law, and reshaping health care spending.
President Trump has suggested some unusual methods to rebalance the books. For example, he has touted a “Gold Card” plan, a visa policy that would charge rich immigrants $5 million for a green card, plus a route to citizenship.
“A million cards would be worth $5 trillion, and if you sell 10 million of the cards that’s a total of $50 trillion. Well, we have $35 trillion in debt, so that would be nice,” Trump said last year.
Likewise, tariffs were introduced as a way to offset some of the revenue loss from the likes of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Indeed, while Trump’s tariff plans have proved unpopular with foreign governments, economists nonetheless welcome the “peculiar” methods to increase America’s income. As Wharton professor Joao Gomes previously told Fortune: “You can also not deny that [Trump and his administration] bring strange forms of revenue that do change the debt picture.”