
高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的前首席执行官预测,伊朗战争不会演变为持久战。
2006年至2018年执掌这家知名投行的劳尔德·贝兰克梵,在周二播出的美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访中表示,这场冲突造成的压力足以使其迅速终结。
贝兰克梵称:“这种局面根本无法承受,对所有人——美国、我们的盟友——都极为不利,而……受冲击最严重的,恰恰是我们的敌人。”
贝兰克梵最为人熟知的成就,是带领高盛集团平稳渡过2008年金融危机,并助其跻身全球营收规模最大的投行之列。但与摩根大通(JPMorgan)的杰米·戴蒙不同,他担任首席执行官期间,极少就地缘政治议题公开发声。不过近期为宣传本月初出版的回忆录《华尔街智慧:驾驭高盛》(Streetwise: Getting to and Through Goldman Sachs),贝兰克梵对伊朗战争等议题发表了坦率见解。
贝兰克梵在美国消费者新闻与商业频道的采访中还指出,反对声浪并非仅限于美国,而是席卷全球。
他补充道:“其影响如此深远,以至于海湾周边所有国家乃至全球各国都将因此团结起来——这将成为凝聚世界的力量。”
贝兰克梵发表此番言论之际,伊朗冲突在上周末再度升级。美国与以色列加大了对伊朗的空袭力度,以色列还将黎巴嫩列为打击目标,旨在打击伊朗支持的武装组织黎巴嫩真主党。与此同时,伊朗发起报复行动,袭击了美国位于沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔的军事基地。伊朗还以公然对抗的姿态,宣布穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊接替其父阿里·侯赛尼·哈梅内伊担任最高领袖,后者在美军空袭中丧生。
特朗普总统周一在新闻发布会上宣称战争“很快就会结束”,但随即表示美国将“采取进一步行动”。尽管特朗普的表态推动周二股市上涨,但美国国防部部长皮特·赫格塞思在与参谋长联席会议主席联合召开的新闻发布会上称,美国“绝不会收手,直至敌人被彻底、决定性地击败”。
受伊朗战争影响,国际油价周一一度飙升至每桶117美元,随后因为特朗普的表态而回落。美国汽车协会(AAA)数据显示,全美汽油均价从2月21日的每加仑2.93美元,涨至周二的每加仑3.53美元,17天内的涨幅达到20.4%。
贝兰克梵就伊朗问题发表异常坦率的言论,一改他作为全球顶级投行首席执行官一贯的谨慎风格。在执掌高盛集团的12年间,他历经伊拉克战争、2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚等国际冲突,但鲜少公开置评。
然而在上周接受采访时,贝兰克梵详细阐述了自己的观点:只要持续时间较短,伊朗战争等地缘政治事件通常不会对市场造成太大冲击。他虽认为伊朗战争不会演变为持久战,但一旦拖成持久战,影响将更为严重。
他在接受美国公共广播公司(PBS)《新闻一小时》(PBS News Hour)栏目采访时称:“我认为,如果霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)被封锁,油价持续高企,将推高通胀并引发其他连锁反应。”
霍尔木兹海峡位于伊朗南部,是波斯湾(Persian Gulf)的咽喉要道,全球约20%的液化天然气和原油都经此运输。专家指出,若该航道遭封锁,将引发比20世纪70年代更严重的石油冲击——当时油价飙升40%,加油站前排长队成为常态。
尽管如此,贝兰克梵在美国公共广播公司的采访中淡化了冲突升级的可能性,他说:“除了是全球主要的能源供应地之外,当前冲突所涉地区在全球经济中的体量并不算大。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)的前首席执行官预测,伊朗战争不会演变为持久战。
2006年至2018年执掌这家知名投行的劳尔德·贝兰克梵,在周二播出的美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)采访中表示,这场冲突造成的压力足以使其迅速终结。
贝兰克梵称:“这种局面根本无法承受,对所有人——美国、我们的盟友——都极为不利,而……受冲击最严重的,恰恰是我们的敌人。”
贝兰克梵最为人熟知的成就,是带领高盛集团平稳渡过2008年金融危机,并助其跻身全球营收规模最大的投行之列。但与摩根大通(JPMorgan)的杰米·戴蒙不同,他担任首席执行官期间,极少就地缘政治议题公开发声。不过近期为宣传本月初出版的回忆录《华尔街智慧:驾驭高盛》(Streetwise: Getting to and Through Goldman Sachs),贝兰克梵对伊朗战争等议题发表了坦率见解。
贝兰克梵在美国消费者新闻与商业频道的采访中还指出,反对声浪并非仅限于美国,而是席卷全球。
他补充道:“其影响如此深远,以至于海湾周边所有国家乃至全球各国都将因此团结起来——这将成为凝聚世界的力量。”
贝兰克梵发表此番言论之际,伊朗冲突在上周末再度升级。美国与以色列加大了对伊朗的空袭力度,以色列还将黎巴嫩列为打击目标,旨在打击伊朗支持的武装组织黎巴嫩真主党。与此同时,伊朗发起报复行动,袭击了美国位于沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋和卡塔尔的军事基地。伊朗还以公然对抗的姿态,宣布穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊接替其父阿里·侯赛尼·哈梅内伊担任最高领袖,后者在美军空袭中丧生。
特朗普总统周一在新闻发布会上宣称战争“很快就会结束”,但随即表示美国将“采取进一步行动”。尽管特朗普的表态推动周二股市上涨,但美国国防部部长皮特·赫格塞思在与参谋长联席会议主席联合召开的新闻发布会上称,美国“绝不会收手,直至敌人被彻底、决定性地击败”。
受伊朗战争影响,国际油价周一一度飙升至每桶117美元,随后因为特朗普的表态而回落。美国汽车协会(AAA)数据显示,全美汽油均价从2月21日的每加仑2.93美元,涨至周二的每加仑3.53美元,17天内的涨幅达到20.4%。
贝兰克梵就伊朗问题发表异常坦率的言论,一改他作为全球顶级投行首席执行官一贯的谨慎风格。在执掌高盛集团的12年间,他历经伊拉克战争、2014年俄罗斯吞并克里米亚等国际冲突,但鲜少公开置评。
然而在上周接受采访时,贝兰克梵详细阐述了自己的观点:只要持续时间较短,伊朗战争等地缘政治事件通常不会对市场造成太大冲击。他虽认为伊朗战争不会演变为持久战,但一旦拖成持久战,影响将更为严重。
他在接受美国公共广播公司(PBS)《新闻一小时》(PBS News Hour)栏目采访时称:“我认为,如果霍尔木兹海峡(Strait of Hormuz)被封锁,油价持续高企,将推高通胀并引发其他连锁反应。”
霍尔木兹海峡位于伊朗南部,是波斯湾(Persian Gulf)的咽喉要道,全球约20%的液化天然气和原油都经此运输。专家指出,若该航道遭封锁,将引发比20世纪70年代更严重的石油冲击——当时油价飙升40%,加油站前排长队成为常态。
尽管如此,贝兰克梵在美国公共广播公司的采访中淡化了冲突升级的可能性,他说:“除了是全球主要的能源供应地之外,当前冲突所涉地区在全球经济中的体量并不算大。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
The former CEO of Goldman Sachs is predicting the Iran war won’t last long.
Lloyd Blankfein, who helmed the famed investment bank from 2006 to 2018, said in a CNBC interview published Tuesday the pressure created by the conflict may be enough to end it soon.
“It’s so impossible to live with, and it’s bad for everyone—for the U.S., for our allies—and … the ones who are worse affected by it are our enemies,” said Blankfein.
Blankfein is best known for navigating Goldman through the 2008 financial crisis and helping it become one of the world’s largest investment banks by revenue, but as CEO he mostly shied away from commenting on geopolitics, unlike counterpart Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan. Yet Blankfein has spoken candidly on the issue of the Iran war and other subjects recently as he promotes his memoir, Streetwise: Getting to and Through Goldman Sachs, published earlier this month.
In the CNBC interview Blankfein also said resistance to the war is not limited to the U.S. and is taking place around the world.
“The effect of it is so severe that all the countries that surround the Gulf and everybody else in the world are—this is going to be the unifying factor for the world,” he added.
Blankfein’s comments come as the Iran conflict escalated over the weekend. The U.S. and Israel have increased their bombing campaign on Iran, but Israel has also targeted Lebanon, as they look to strike the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Iran has targeted U.S. military bases in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar in retaliation. In an act of defiance, Iran also named Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader to replace his father, Ali Hosseini Khamenei, who was killed in a U.S. airstrike.
President Donald Trump, for his part, said in a press conference Monday the war “will be over very soon,” but followed it up by saying the U.S. would “go further.” While Trump’s comments pushed stocks up on Tuesday, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in a joint press conference with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that the U.S. “will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.”
The Iran war already sent oil prices skyrocketing to as high as $117 a barrel Monday before retreating on comments from Trump. Average gas prices rose to $3.53 as of Tuesday from $2.93 per gallon on Feb. 21—a 20.4% jump in 17 days, according to AAA.
Blankfein’s unusually candid comments on Iran mark a departure from his buttoned-up style as CEO of one of the most prestigious investment banks in the world. His 12-year tenure as Goldman’s CEO spanned multiple conflicts abroad, including the Iraq War and Russia’s 2014 invasion of the Crimean Peninsula, though he rarely commented publicly on such events.
Yet in an interview last week, Blankfein spoke at length about his belief that geopolitical events like the Iran war generally don’t affect markets too much as long as they are short-lived. While he said he doesn’t believe the Iran war will become a long-term conflict, if it did, the effects may be more pronounced.
“I suppose if they close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices stayed up, that would feed into inflation, and that would create other kinds of dislocation,” he told PBS News Hour.
The Strait of Hormuz, bordering Iran to the south, is a critical route that enables an estimated 20% of global liquefied natural gas and gas shipments through the Persian Gulf. Experts have said the closing of this route would amount to an oil shock greater than that of the 1970s in which gas prices surged by 40% and long lines at the pump were the norm.
Still, Blankfein in his interview with PBS played down the potential of a broader escalation in the conflict, saying: “We’re not dealing in a part of the world that’s a really big part of the global economy other than the fact that it sources a lot of energy.”