
尽管存在关税担忧和经济衰退预警,全球顶级企业家却比以往任何时候都更加乐观,同时也在悄然为一代人以来最大规模的财富转移做准备。他们的应对方式是:表面上淡然处之,同时制定清晰计划,准备在未来十年进行大规模套现。
根据最新发布的《2026年瑞银全球企业家报告》(2026 UBS Global Entrepreneur Report),全球最成功的企业创始人普遍保持高度乐观,计划大幅扩大员工规模,并且最引人注目的是,他们正在为回报丰厚的企业退出做足准备。
这份报告调查了215位年度总收入达到343亿美元的精英创始人。报告描绘出一幅几乎不受宏观经济逆风影响的企业家群体图景。高达68%的企业家表示,他们对未来12个月的业务前景持乐观态度。其中,瑞士(83%)和欧洲(74%)的信心指数最高,主要源于客户需求激增和技术飞速进步的推动。
瑞银集团(UBS)战略客户与全球互联业务负责人本杰明·卡瓦利称,企业家们并没有选择退缩。他说:“企业家并没有准备缩减,而是在准备重塑。”他补充道,他们正在以“惊人的韧性”迎接新的一年。
80%计划五年内扩大员工规模
企业创始人非但没有选择收缩,反而在进一步加大增长投入。未来五年,全球80%的企业家预计将扩大员工规模,其中37%计划大幅扩招。此外,45%的企业家正在考虑通过国际扩张或搬迁来开拓新的客户市场。为了提升效率和利润率,他们也在积极拥抱人工智能技术。61%的受访者认为,人工智能是最具商业潜力的技术机遇。尽管他们也意识到一些风险,例如政治动荡(42%)和重大地缘政治冲突的威胁(35%)等,但他们更倾向于通过提高运营效率和分散市场布局来应对这些挑战,而不是放缓发展步伐。
不过,2026年报告中最发人深省的结论或许是接下来将发生的事情:一场大规模的财富转移。在成功应对动荡的经济环境之后,一大批企业创始人正在准备大举出售资产。
340亿美元退出潮:企业创始人为何最终选择套现离场
全球近三分之一(32%)的企业家正在积极考虑在未来五年内退出经营。在65岁及以上的企业家中,这一比例上升至57%。美国企业家在这股“套现潮”中走在前列,高达63%的人计划退出,远超欧洲(38%)和亚太地区(18%)的同行。
企业家们在套现时往往会选择出价最高的买家。40%的创始人预计会将企业出售给所在行业的战略买家,这通常是因为企业之间的协同效应能够支撑更高的估值。只有23%计划将企业运营权传给下一代,而仅有6%设想通过IPO退出。
这股即将到来的出售浪潮,源于创始人们的一个清醒认知:他们忽视了自己的个人财富积累。约三分之一(32%)的受访者承认,由于不断将资金重新投入企业增长,他们未能尽可能多地积累个人财富。在美国,近一半受访者(47%)报告存在这种个人财富积累缺口。
然而,这种情况正在发生变化。全球范围内,42%的“企业优先型”创始人表示,在出售企业后,他们的主要关注点将转向积累个人财富。在准备迎接这笔巨额收益时,他们焦虑的重点也从企业战略转向个人传承。三分之二(67%)的受访者优先考虑如何帮助继承人负责任地管理这笔即将到来的财富,而61%的受访者则高度关注在资产转移过程中的税务效率。
随着企业家们把目光投向获利丰厚的出售机会和财富管理,他们自信地忽视了当前的经济杂音。他们正在准备告别董事会,换取一份应得的巨额报酬。
中小企业的别样图景
并非所有人都同样乐观。美国全国独立企业联合会(National Federation of Independent Business)的小企业乐观指数在今年2月连续第二个月下降,下滑0.5点至98.8。同时,预期实际销售量净值下降8个百分点至8%,这是近一年以来的最低水平。招聘计划降至去年5月以来的最低点,而税收已经连续第三个月成为企业最关心的问题。
瑞银与美国全国独立企业联合会调查结果之间的差异,反映出美国商业格局中的结构性分化。瑞银调查的企业家拥有足够的资本和规模,可以进行业务迁移、多元化布局以及人工智能投资。而美国全国独立企业联合会跟踪的中小企业主则需要应对关税不确定性、劳动力短缺,以及来自那些正在部署这些技术的大型企业的竞争压力。美国全国独立企业联合会的首席经济学家比尔·邓克尔伯格说:“销售额提升和利润增长,使许多企业主感到今年2月的情况有所好转,但当前的经济形势下,来自大型企业的竞争正在给中小企业带来压力。”
今年3月的美国全国独立企业联合会调查,将首次反映与伊朗战争相关的能源价格上涨对小企业情绪的影响。对这些成本消化能力最弱的小企业而言,能源价格上涨为它们本就脆弱的前景增添了新的变数。(财富中文网)
《财富》杂志使用生成式人工智能作为本文的研究工具。编辑在发表前已核实信息的准确性。
译者:刘进龙
尽管存在关税担忧和经济衰退预警,全球顶级企业家却比以往任何时候都更加乐观,同时也在悄然为一代人以来最大规模的财富转移做准备。他们的应对方式是:表面上淡然处之,同时制定清晰计划,准备在未来十年进行大规模套现。
根据最新发布的《2026年瑞银全球企业家报告》(2026 UBS Global Entrepreneur Report),全球最成功的企业创始人普遍保持高度乐观,计划大幅扩大员工规模,并且最引人注目的是,他们正在为回报丰厚的企业退出做足准备。
这份报告调查了215位年度总收入达到343亿美元的精英创始人。报告描绘出一幅几乎不受宏观经济逆风影响的企业家群体图景。高达68%的企业家表示,他们对未来12个月的业务前景持乐观态度。其中,瑞士(83%)和欧洲(74%)的信心指数最高,主要源于客户需求激增和技术飞速进步的推动。
瑞银集团(UBS)战略客户与全球互联业务负责人本杰明·卡瓦利称,企业家们并没有选择退缩。他说:“企业家并没有准备缩减,而是在准备重塑。”他补充道,他们正在以“惊人的韧性”迎接新的一年。
80%计划五年内扩大员工规模
企业创始人非但没有选择收缩,反而在进一步加大增长投入。未来五年,全球80%的企业家预计将扩大员工规模,其中37%计划大幅扩招。此外,45%的企业家正在考虑通过国际扩张或搬迁来开拓新的客户市场。为了提升效率和利润率,他们也在积极拥抱人工智能技术。61%的受访者认为,人工智能是最具商业潜力的技术机遇。尽管他们也意识到一些风险,例如政治动荡(42%)和重大地缘政治冲突的威胁(35%)等,但他们更倾向于通过提高运营效率和分散市场布局来应对这些挑战,而不是放缓发展步伐。
不过,2026年报告中最发人深省的结论或许是接下来将发生的事情:一场大规模的财富转移。在成功应对动荡的经济环境之后,一大批企业创始人正在准备大举出售资产。
340亿美元退出潮:企业创始人为何最终选择套现离场
全球近三分之一(32%)的企业家正在积极考虑在未来五年内退出经营。在65岁及以上的企业家中,这一比例上升至57%。美国企业家在这股“套现潮”中走在前列,高达63%的人计划退出,远超欧洲(38%)和亚太地区(18%)的同行。
企业家们在套现时往往会选择出价最高的买家。40%的创始人预计会将企业出售给所在行业的战略买家,这通常是因为企业之间的协同效应能够支撑更高的估值。只有23%计划将企业运营权传给下一代,而仅有6%设想通过IPO退出。
这股即将到来的出售浪潮,源于创始人们的一个清醒认知:他们忽视了自己的个人财富积累。约三分之一(32%)的受访者承认,由于不断将资金重新投入企业增长,他们未能尽可能多地积累个人财富。在美国,近一半受访者(47%)报告存在这种个人财富积累缺口。
然而,这种情况正在发生变化。全球范围内,42%的“企业优先型”创始人表示,在出售企业后,他们的主要关注点将转向积累个人财富。在准备迎接这笔巨额收益时,他们焦虑的重点也从企业战略转向个人传承。三分之二(67%)的受访者优先考虑如何帮助继承人负责任地管理这笔即将到来的财富,而61%的受访者则高度关注在资产转移过程中的税务效率。
随着企业家们把目光投向获利丰厚的出售机会和财富管理,他们自信地忽视了当前的经济杂音。他们正在准备告别董事会,换取一份应得的巨额报酬。
中小企业的别样图景
并非所有人都同样乐观。美国全国独立企业联合会(National Federation of Independent Business)的小企业乐观指数在今年2月连续第二个月下降,下滑0.5点至98.8。同时,预期实际销售量净值下降8个百分点至8%,这是近一年以来的最低水平。招聘计划降至去年5月以来的最低点,而税收已经连续第三个月成为企业最关心的问题。
瑞银与美国全国独立企业联合会调查结果之间的差异,反映出美国商业格局中的结构性分化。瑞银调查的企业家拥有足够的资本和规模,可以进行业务迁移、多元化布局以及人工智能投资。而美国全国独立企业联合会跟踪的中小企业主则需要应对关税不确定性、劳动力短缺,以及来自那些正在部署这些技术的大型企业的竞争压力。美国全国独立企业联合会的首席经济学家比尔·邓克尔伯格说:“销售额提升和利润增长,使许多企业主感到今年2月的情况有所好转,但当前的经济形势下,来自大型企业的竞争正在给中小企业带来压力。”
今年3月的美国全国独立企业联合会调查,将首次反映与伊朗战争相关的能源价格上涨对小企业情绪的影响。对这些成本消化能力最弱的小企业而言,能源价格上涨为它们本就脆弱的前景增添了新的变数。(财富中文网)
《财富》杂志使用生成式人工智能作为本文的研究工具。编辑在发表前已核实信息的准确性。
译者:刘进龙
Despite tariff fears and recession warnings, the world’s top entrepreneurs are more optimistic than ever — and quietly preparing for the biggest wealth transfer in a generation. Their response? A collective shrug and a focused plan to cash in big over the next decade.
According to the newly released 2026 UBS Global Entrepreneur Report, the world’s most successful business founders are fiercely optimistic, planning massive workforce expansions, and, most notably, preparing for highly lucrative business exits.
The report, which surveyed 215 elite founders boasting a combined $34.3 billion in annual revenue, paints a picture of a business class pretty much unfazed by macroeconomic headwinds. A striking 68% of entrepreneurs say they are optimistic about their business prospects over the next 12 months. This confidence is highest in Switzerland (83%) and Europe (74%), driven primarily by surging customer demand and rapid technological advancements.
Benjamin Cavalli, Head of Strategic Clients & Global Connectivity at UBS, noted that founders are refusing to retreat. “Entrepreneurs are not preparing for retrenchment. They’re preparing for reinvention,” he observed, adding that they are entering the year with “remarkable resilience”.
80% Plan to Expand Headcount in Five Years
Instead of pulling back, founders are doubling down on growth. Over the next five years, 80% of entrepreneurs globally expect to increase their workforce, with 37% intending to do so significantly. Furthermore, 45% are eyeing international expansion or relocation to capture new customer markets. To drive efficiency and improve margins, they are enthusiastically embracing artificial intelligence, with 61% viewing AI as their greatest commercial technology opportunity. While they do acknowledge risks—such as political instability (42%) and the threat of major geopolitical conflicts (35%)—they are actively mitigating these threats by boosting operational efficiency and diversifying their markets rather than hitting the brakes.
But perhaps the most revealing takeaway from the 2026 report is what comes next: the great wealth transfer. Having successfully navigated a turbulent economic landscape, a massive wave of founders is preparing to sell.
The $34 Billion Exit Wave: Why Founders Are Finally Cashing Out
Nearly a third (32%) of global entrepreneurs are actively considering exiting their businesses within the next five years. For those aged 65 and over, this figure surges to 57%. American entrepreneurs are leading this stampede to the bank, with a staggering 63% planning an exit, significantly outpacing their peers in Europe (38%) and Asia-Pacific (18%).
When they do cash out, they are looking for the highest bidder. Forty percent of exiting founders expect to sell to a strategic buyer within their industry, a move often motivated by the higher valuations that corporate synergies can justify. Only 23% plan to hand the operating business down to the next generation, and a mere 6% envision an IPO.
This impending wave of sales is driven by a stark realization among founders: they have neglected their own bank accounts. Nearly a third (32%) of those surveyed admit they have not built up their personal wealth as much as they could have, having continually reinvested their capital back into corporate growth. In the US, nearly half (47%) report this personal wealth gap.
However, the tide is turning. Globally, 42% of these business-first founders say their primary focus will shift to building their personal fortunes immediately following a sale. As they prepare for this windfall, their anxieties are shifting from corporate strategy to personal legacy. Two-thirds (67%) are prioritizing how to help their heirs manage this impending wealth responsibly, while 61% are hyper-focused on the tax efficiency of transferring their assets.
With their eyes firmly fixed on lucrative sales and wealth management, the world’s entrepreneurs are confidently ignoring today’s economic noise, preparing to trade their boardrooms for a well-earned, massive payday.
A Different Picture on Main Street
Not everyone is feeling the same optimism. The National Federation of Independent Business’s Small Business Optimism Index fell for the second consecutive month in February, slipping 0.5 points to 98.8, as expected real sales volumes dropped 8 points to a net 8% — the weakest reading in nearly a year. Hiring plans fell to their lowest level since May, and taxes remained the top concern for the third straight month.
The divergence between the UBS and NFIB findings reflects a structural split in the American business landscape. The entrepreneurs UBS surveyed have the capital and scale to relocate, diversify, and invest in AI. The small business owners the NFIB tracks are navigating tariff uncertainty, labor shortages, and competition from the very large businesses that are deploying those tools. “High sales and increased profits made February a more positive month for many owners,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg, “but competition from large businesses is putting stress on Main Street firms as they navigate the current economic climate.”
The March NFIB survey will be the first to capture small business sentiment after rising energy prices linked to the Iran War — adding yet another variable to an already fragile outlook for the businesses least equipped to absorb it.
For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.