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摩根士丹利称人工智能经济带来罕见的“再工业化复兴”,但对计算机的好处远大于人类

Nick Lichtenberg
2026-03-09

人工智能革命正在改写美国经济的规则,但它并未带来消费繁荣的黄金时代,而是引发了一场规模巨大、资源密集的基础设施建设热潮。

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2026年2月18日,纽约证券交易所交易大厅内的交易员。图片来源:ANGELA WEISS—AFP/Getty Images

人工智能革命正在改写美国经济的规则,但它并未带来消费繁荣的黄金时代,而是引发了一场规模巨大、资源密集的基础设施建设热潮。在这场热潮中,普通劳动者有可能被时代抛在身后。

根据摩根士丹利财富管理公司最新发布的一份战略报告,市场已进入一个“由生成式人工智能资本支出驱动”的时代,体现从消费主导型增长转向投资主导型的“再工业化复兴”。重要的是,这种变化这与以往的技术革命(如互联网、个人电脑或移动设备)都截然不同。

摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特表示,当前的生成式人工智能浪潮“显然还不是以消费者为中心”。相反,这一过程深深扎根于物理世界,以支持庞大的计算需求。

沙莱特的团队指出,与数据中心相关的投资在2025年已占年度GDP增长的25%,并且正在以预测实际GDP增长率数倍的速度扩张。这种巨大的规模需要数万亿美元的投资,这些投资将波及实体市场,直接影响房地产、建筑、电力以及工业金属。该公司认为,这种趋势正在催生出一个长达数年的建设期,在此期间,“在经济再平衡过程中,投资取代消费,成为增长驱动力”。

对人类并非利好

尽管这种基础设施建设对工业指标来说是个利好,对人类却意味着黯淡的前景。摩根士丹利警告称,生成式人工智能的普及将给“劳动力市场带来转型风险”。

该报告认为美国消费市场的前景终将归于“平平淡淡”,并受到“情绪低落、就业焦虑、3.6%的低储蓄率以及不断上升的债务和信贷违约”等因素制约。此外,该公司预测,由于就业市场低迷、人口老龄化和人口增长缓慢,消费增长可能会停滞,导致民众陷入加剧不平等的"K型经济"之中,而不是V型或U型复苏。

有趣的是,这种新模式也迫使科技巨头们面对严峻的现实。多年来,美国股指一直被“轻资产、经常性收入的科技商业模式”所主导,这些模式享受着近乎为零的边际成本和不断扩大的利润率。然而,生成式人工智能革命从根本上就不同。它是一场"资金饥渴的研发军备竞赛",其经济学核心是边际成本。这意味着,随着科技公司增加注册用户,它们必须为宝贵的"算力"能力投入巨额资金。

因此,这些昔日的轻资产宠儿正在转变为“资本密集型、现金饥渴的企业”。摩根士丹利直言不讳地指出,对于这些超大规模企业而言,“那个基于看似永远增长的利润率来数倍扩大估值的时代,很可能已经结束”。

美国银行研究部的首席股票策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼安也就科技行业背离轻资产模式发出了类似警告,而硅谷的高管们正逐渐意识到,人工智能可能终结了科技行业的利润盛宴,甚至自动化了大部分的编码工作。

最终,摩根士丹利对2026年及未来的展望描绘了一幅深刻的经济重构图景。生成式人工智能革命可能不会带来一个消费市场乌托邦,但它正在推动一场由资本支出驱动的全球基础设施建设热潮。这是一个重型机械、电网和数据中心占据主导地位的时代,从根本上来看,至少就目前而言,人工智能的繁荣对计算机的好处远大于对人类的好处。(财富中文网)

撰写本报道时,《财富》杂志记者使用生成式AI作为研究工具。编辑在发布前核实了信息的准确性。

译者:珠珠

人工智能革命正在改写美国经济的规则,但它并未带来消费繁荣的黄金时代,而是引发了一场规模巨大、资源密集的基础设施建设热潮。在这场热潮中,普通劳动者有可能被时代抛在身后。

根据摩根士丹利财富管理公司最新发布的一份战略报告,市场已进入一个“由生成式人工智能资本支出驱动”的时代,体现从消费主导型增长转向投资主导型的“再工业化复兴”。重要的是,这种变化这与以往的技术革命(如互联网、个人电脑或移动设备)都截然不同。

摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特表示,当前的生成式人工智能浪潮“显然还不是以消费者为中心”。相反,这一过程深深扎根于物理世界,以支持庞大的计算需求。

沙莱特的团队指出,与数据中心相关的投资在2025年已占年度GDP增长的25%,并且正在以预测实际GDP增长率数倍的速度扩张。这种巨大的规模需要数万亿美元的投资,这些投资将波及实体市场,直接影响房地产、建筑、电力以及工业金属。该公司认为,这种趋势正在催生出一个长达数年的建设期,在此期间,“在经济再平衡过程中,投资取代消费,成为增长驱动力”。

对人类并非利好

尽管这种基础设施建设对工业指标来说是个利好,对人类却意味着黯淡的前景。摩根士丹利警告称,生成式人工智能的普及将给“劳动力市场带来转型风险”。

该报告认为美国消费市场的前景终将归于“平平淡淡”,并受到“情绪低落、就业焦虑、3.6%的低储蓄率以及不断上升的债务和信贷违约”等因素制约。此外,该公司预测,由于就业市场低迷、人口老龄化和人口增长缓慢,消费增长可能会停滞,导致民众陷入加剧不平等的"K型经济"之中,而不是V型或U型复苏。

有趣的是,这种新模式也迫使科技巨头们面对严峻的现实。多年来,美国股指一直被“轻资产、经常性收入的科技商业模式”所主导,这些模式享受着近乎为零的边际成本和不断扩大的利润率。然而,生成式人工智能革命从根本上就不同。它是一场"资金饥渴的研发军备竞赛",其经济学核心是边际成本。这意味着,随着科技公司增加注册用户,它们必须为宝贵的"算力"能力投入巨额资金。

因此,这些昔日的轻资产宠儿正在转变为“资本密集型、现金饥渴的企业”。摩根士丹利直言不讳地指出,对于这些超大规模企业而言,“那个基于看似永远增长的利润率来数倍扩大估值的时代,很可能已经结束”。

美国银行研究部的首席股票策略师萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼安也就科技行业背离轻资产模式发出了类似警告,而硅谷的高管们正逐渐意识到,人工智能可能终结了科技行业的利润盛宴,甚至自动化了大部分的编码工作。

最终,摩根士丹利对2026年及未来的展望描绘了一幅深刻的经济重构图景。生成式人工智能革命可能不会带来一个消费市场乌托邦,但它正在推动一场由资本支出驱动的全球基础设施建设热潮。这是一个重型机械、电网和数据中心占据主导地位的时代,从根本上来看,至少就目前而言,人工智能的繁荣对计算机的好处远大于对人类的好处。(财富中文网)

撰写本报道时,《财富》杂志记者使用生成式AI作为研究工具。编辑在发布前核实了信息的准确性。

译者:珠珠

The artificial intelligence revolution is rewriting the rules of the American economy, but rather than ushering in a golden age of consumer prosperity, it is sparking a massive, resource-heavy infrastructure boom that could leave the everyday worker behind.

According to a newly released strategic report from Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, the market has entered a “gen-AI-capex-powered” era that represents a rare shift away from consumption-led growth and toward an investment-led “reindustrialization renaissance.” The catch is it’s very unlike previous technological revolutions—such as the internet, personal computers, or mobile devices.

The current generative AI wave is “not obviously consumer-centric yet,” according to Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Instead, the build-out is deeply rooted in the physical world to support massive computing needs.

Shalett’s team noted data-center-related investment already accounted for a staggering 25% of annual GDP growth in 2025, and is expanding at a pace that is multiples of forecasted real GDP growth. This immense scale requires trillions of dollars of investment that will ripple through physical markets, directly impacting real estate, construction, power and electricity generation, and industrial metals. The firm argues this dynamic is catalyzing a multiyear period in which “investment dominates consumption as the growth driver amid economic rebalancing.”

About those humans

While this infrastructure build-out is a boon for industrial metrics, the outlook for humans is markedly less rosy. Morgan Stanley warns of “transformational risks to the labor market” brought on by the gen AI diffusion.

The report describes prospects for the U.S. consumer as ultimately “unremarkable,” weighed down by “depressed sentiment, job anxiety, a low 3.6% savings rate, and rising indebtedness and credit delinquencies.” Furthermore, the firm predicts consumption growth will likely stall owing to a lackluster job market, aging demographics, and slow population growth, leaving the populace trapped within “K-shaped economic dynamics” that exacerbate inequality, referencing the meme over the past five years that leaped from finance Twitter and into reality, with the wealthy and working class representing branching lines on the “K,” rather than a “V-shaped” or “U-shaped” financial recovery.

Interestingly, this new paradigm is also forcing a harsh reality check on tech titans. For years, U.S. indexes have been dominated by “asset-light, recurring-revenue tech business models” that enjoyed near-zero marginal costs and ever-expanding margins. However, the gen AI revolution is fundamentally different. It is a “cash-hungry R&D arms race” with marginal-cost economics, meaning as tech companies add subscribers, they must simultaneously spend vastly more on precious “compute” capacity.

Consequently, these former asset-light darlings are transforming into “capital-intensive, cash-flow-hungry businesses.” Morgan Stanley bluntly states that for these hyperscalers, “the era of multiple expansion based on seemingly ever-expanding profit margins is likely over.”

Bank of America Research chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian has sounded similar alarms about tech’s move away from an asset-light model, while Silicon Valley executives are waking up to the fact AI may have ended the tech industry’s profit gravy train, and even automated most coding work.

Ultimately, Morgan Stanley’s vision of 2026 and beyond is one of profound economic realignment. The gen AI revolution may not be delivering a consumer utopia, but it is fueling a global, capex-driven infrastructure boom. It is an era in which heavy machinery, power grids, and data centers reign supreme, fundamentally suggesting that, at least for now, the AI boom is far better for computers than it is for humans.

For this story, Fortune journalists used generative AI as a research tool. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.

财富中文网所刊载内容之知识产权为财富媒体知识产权有限公司及/或相关权利人专属所有或持有。未经许可,禁止进行转载、摘编、复制及建立镜像等任何使用。
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