
在资本与劳动的博弈中,劳动者的处境已大幅落后,这引发了人们对经济与社会赖以运行的信任基础的严重担忧。
毕马威(KPMG)首席经济学家兼董事总经理黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)在最新报告中,重点指出企业利润与劳动者收入之间令人不安的差距。
报告显示,企业利润占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的比重已从1982年的8%飙升至15.85%,而员工薪酬占GDP的比重则从1982年的66.6%骤降至61.9%。
尽管劳动力在经济中所占份额也曾低于当前水平,但整体呈下行态势,且与企业利润之间的差距已创下二战以来的最高纪录。
斯旺克上周在社交媒体发文称:"我在近期发布的《经济指南针》报告中展示的这张图表,至今仍让我深感不安。有朋友将其称作‘革命图表’,虽令人不安,却直指核心。不平等现象会进一步加剧社会与经济的动荡。"
她补充道,这种差异有助于解释纸面上的经济表现与大多数美国人的实际感受之间的落差。
事实上,尽管整体数据显示通胀有所降温、收入稳步增长、消费支出保持韧性,但细分数据却暴露出严重的两极分化。例如,自疫情爆发以来,最富有的20%家庭几乎贡献了美国全部消费增长,而底层80%的家庭仅能勉强跟上通胀步伐。
如今美国民众正面临可负担性危机,食品、电力、保险、医疗保健、托育及住房等基本生活开支全面上涨。
斯旺克警告称:“这反映出数十年来信任的逐渐崩塌,一股背叛的暗流正在涌动。我们的经济叙事已然出现裂痕。”

她在报告中指出,这种信任缺失现象已在全球蔓延,且持续了数十年之久,过去一年在发展中经济体表现得尤为突出。
与此同时,生成式人工智能革命与特朗普总统的关税政策加剧了民众对就业安全的焦虑。
斯旺克写道:“在人工智能带来的生产力提升尚未显现之际,首席执行官们就已将人工智能列为冻结招聘和裁员的理由。这种做法可能因小失大,它激起公众对人工智能愈发强烈的抵触情绪。”
诚然,仍有若干利好因素有望惠及劳动者和整体经济:特朗普的减税政策将带来短期提振,世界杯赛事有望缓解旅游业的低迷态势,通胀水平将持续稳步回落,大规模人工智能资本支出将持续支撑GDP增长。
但她指出,另一方面,投资者情绪紧张,经济政策走向仍充满不确定性,房地产市场持续低迷。
斯旺克总结道:“结果就是经济看似韧性十足,实则愈发脆弱。经济增长虽得以维持,但支撑劳动力市场、投资活动和全球合作的纽带正在断裂。劳动者愈发焦虑,投资者更趋盲从,而市场……比新闻头条所暗示的更易受到冲击。”
她的这一警告,与诺贝尔经济学奖得主达龙·阿西莫格鲁(Daron Acemoglu)多年来关于经济与政治衰退根源的论述不谋而合。
在近期接受《财富》杂志记者杰克·安杰洛(Jake Angelo)采访时,他表示美国正走向黯淡未来,并指出在人工智能发展方面需做出两项关键转变,以避免经济进一步衰退:遏制经济不平等,同时减少人工智能对就业岗位的冲击。
阿西莫格鲁称:“如果我们继续沿着这条摧毁就业、加剧不平等的道路走下去,美国的民主制度将难以为继。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
在资本与劳动的博弈中,劳动者的处境已大幅落后,这引发了人们对经济与社会赖以运行的信任基础的严重担忧。
毕马威(KPMG)首席经济学家兼董事总经理黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)在最新报告中,重点指出企业利润与劳动者收入之间令人不安的差距。
报告显示,企业利润占美国国内生产总值(GDP)的比重已从1982年的8%飙升至15.85%,而员工薪酬占GDP的比重则从1982年的66.6%骤降至61.9%。
尽管劳动力在经济中所占份额也曾低于当前水平,但整体呈下行态势,且与企业利润之间的差距已创下二战以来的最高纪录。
斯旺克上周在社交媒体发文称:"我在近期发布的《经济指南针》报告中展示的这张图表,至今仍让我深感不安。有朋友将其称作‘革命图表’,虽令人不安,却直指核心。不平等现象会进一步加剧社会与经济的动荡。"
她补充道,这种差异有助于解释纸面上的经济表现与大多数美国人的实际感受之间的落差。
事实上,尽管整体数据显示通胀有所降温、收入稳步增长、消费支出保持韧性,但细分数据却暴露出严重的两极分化。例如,自疫情爆发以来,最富有的20%家庭几乎贡献了美国全部消费增长,而底层80%的家庭仅能勉强跟上通胀步伐。
如今美国民众正面临可负担性危机,食品、电力、保险、医疗保健、托育及住房等基本生活开支全面上涨。
斯旺克警告称:“这反映出数十年来信任的逐渐崩塌,一股背叛的暗流正在涌动。我们的经济叙事已然出现裂痕。”
她在报告中指出,这种信任缺失现象已在全球蔓延,且持续了数十年之久,过去一年在发展中经济体表现得尤为突出。
与此同时,生成式人工智能革命与特朗普总统的关税政策加剧了民众对就业安全的焦虑。
斯旺克写道:“在人工智能带来的生产力提升尚未显现之际,首席执行官们就已将人工智能列为冻结招聘和裁员的理由。这种做法可能因小失大,它激起公众对人工智能愈发强烈的抵触情绪。”
诚然,仍有若干利好因素有望惠及劳动者和整体经济:特朗普的减税政策将带来短期提振,世界杯赛事有望缓解旅游业的低迷态势,通胀水平将持续稳步回落,大规模人工智能资本支出将持续支撑GDP增长。
但她指出,另一方面,投资者情绪紧张,经济政策走向仍充满不确定性,房地产市场持续低迷。
斯旺克总结道:“结果就是经济看似韧性十足,实则愈发脆弱。经济增长虽得以维持,但支撑劳动力市场、投资活动和全球合作的纽带正在断裂。劳动者愈发焦虑,投资者更趋盲从,而市场……比新闻头条所暗示的更易受到冲击。”
她的这一警告,与诺贝尔经济学奖得主达龙·阿西莫格鲁(Daron Acemoglu)多年来关于经济与政治衰退根源的论述不谋而合。
在近期接受《财富》杂志记者杰克·安杰洛(Jake Angelo)采访时,他表示美国正走向黯淡未来,并指出在人工智能发展方面需做出两项关键转变,以避免经济进一步衰退:遏制经济不平等,同时减少人工智能对就业岗位的冲击。
阿西莫格鲁称:“如果我们继续沿着这条摧毁就业、加剧不平等的道路走下去,美国的民主制度将难以为继。”(财富中文网)
译者:中慧言-王芳
Workers have been falling behind dramatically in the tug of war between capital and labor, stoking serious concern about the trust holding the economy and society together.
Diane Swonk, chief economist and managing director at KPMG, highlighted troubling data on corporate versus workers’ earnings that were included in a report she recently authored.
It showed corporate profits as a share of U.S. GDP have soared to 15.85% from 8% in 1982. By contrast, employee compensation as a share of GDP has tumbled to 61.9% from 66.6% in 1982.
While labor’s slice of the economy has previously been lower than it is today, the overall trend line has pointed down, and the gap compared with corporate earnings is now at a post–World War II record high.
“This chart from my recent Economic Compass still haunts me,” Swonk said in a social media post last week. “A friend refers to it as the ‘revolution chart,’ which [is] disturbing but telling. Inequality fuels social and economic instability.”
She added the divergence helps explain how the economy looks on paper versus how it’s experienced by most Americans.
Indeed, while aggregate data show cooler inflation, steady income gains, and resilient consumer spending, the details reveal a sharp divide. For example, the richest 20% of households account for nearly all U.S. spending growth since the pandemic, while the bottom 80% have merely kept up with inflation.
Today, Americans grapple with an affordability crisis that has stretched across a range of basic expenses, including food, electricity, insurance, health care, childcare, and housing.
“It gets to the multi-decade erosion in trust—there is an undercurrent of betrayal,” Swonk warned. “Something in our economic narrative is broken.”
In her report, she explained this loss of trust extends globally and across multiple decades, but especially in developing economies over the past year.
At the same time, the generative AI revolution and President Donald Trump’s tariffs have stirred more economic anxiety about job safety.
“CEOs are citing AI as a reason for hiring freezes and layoffs, before the productivity associated with AI is realized,” Swonk wrote. “That could prove penny-wise and pound-foolish; it stokes public backlash to AI, which is intensifying.”
To be sure, there are still some tailwinds that should benefit workers and the overall economy. Trump’s tax cuts will deliver a temporary lift; the World Cup will help ease a tourism downturn; inflation will continue to gradually cool; and massive AI capital expenditures will keep propping up GDP growth.
On the other hand, investors are nervous; uncertainty still hangs over the direction of economic policy; and the housing market remains in the doldrums, she said.
“The result is an economy that appears resilient but feels increasingly fragile,” Swonk concluded. “Growth has held up, yet the connective tissue that supports labor markets, investment, and global cooperation is fraying. Workers are more anxious, investors more herdlike, and markets … more vulnerable to shocks than headlines suggest.”
Her warnings echo what Nobel Prize–winning economist Daron Acemoglu has been saying for years about the origins of economic and political decay.
In a recent interview with Fortune’s Jake Angelo, he said the U.S. is headed for a grim future and outlined two shifts relative to AI development he sees as critical to avoiding deeper decline: cracking down on economic inequality and tempering job destruction.
“If we go down this path of destroying jobs [and] creating more inequality, U.S. democracy is not going to survive,” Acemoglu said.